Ukraine-in-a-thread

[Sarmatian]

Ukraine may have to go nuclear, says Kiev lawmaker

Well if Israel can make nukes, why not Ukraine? Hell, I'd like everyone to have at least one nuke. A lot less democracy policing will happen.

The truth is that Ukraine didn't return the nuclear weapons because they felt like it, but because they didn't have the funds or the expertise to properly maintain them. There would have been a bigger chance of a nuclear leak than a successful launch. The corruption and instability of the country would have made it extremely dangerous for nuclear weapons.

I'd like less nuclear weapons in the world, not more.

[Gilrandir]

On the other hand, the President of Crimea was appointed by the President of Ukraine, which is the constitutional model for that government.

There is no president in Crimea. At least not yet. They have a parliament which appoints the cabinet of ministers and the prime minister. If present Crimean authorities don't recognize the new government in Kyiv it would be logical to proclaim allegiance to Yanukovych and invite him to rule the part of the country which still considers him a legal/legitimate/any-other-L-word-you-like president. They don't do that: they neither acknowledge the new government nor insist on the old one to return.

[Gilrandir]

Maybe you should try to guilt trip someone other than a Brit with comparisons with WWII. It wasn't Ukraine that fought alone against a rampant Germany for a year without allies. Maybe it should be someone else's turn to do what they think is the right thing, rather than it being incumbent on Britain all the time.

Firstly, I didn't know you were a Brit. Secondly, I don't call for GB to interfere military-wise. Thirdly, I don't call for any country to interfere military-wise. Fourthly, I don't blame anyone for their present stance. I am aware of a complex nature of the crisis. I just draw some historical parallels.
What I believe could be done is utilizing other levers than warfare. When the West introduced sanctions against Yanukovych and his posse his supporters fell off almost at once. They were more afraid to lose their fortunes and estates abroad than to call Yanukovych a traitor and a criminal. So, what I would hope to see is economic sanstions and traveling limitations. Since this war is waged not by one person (with his friends) but by the armed forces of the whole country (though unidentified still) it would be logical to freeze all financial operations of all people who have Russian citizenship and forbid them all to enter the countries that agree to introduce sanctions. I think within a couple of hours after that Putin will have very unpleasant talks with Abramovich, Deripasko and other Russian billionaires having business and property abroad. Plus thousands of Russians fuming at airports and railway stations whose trips have been cancelled would notify their president of their dissatisfaction and annoyance. It will make him more easy to persuade in the neccessity of negotiations, to say the least.
I know that many of you will say that it is too great a price to pay to help Ukraine. I know that other countries have first of all their interests to think of. But that is the only way I see that can somehow influence Russia without any military involvement of the West.

[Fisherking]

Just wondering.

Since the Crimean parliament has declared their independence even before the referendum and the vote leaves no choice to remain within Ukraine, is it not time to pull the plug on their electricity and close the water tap?



The logistics of replacing those services would drive the Russians mad.

The Navy could provide some of the power, if it is a nuclear fleet, but would mean they could only remain in port hooked to the grid, but the water would be one hell of a problem

[Gilrandir]

During the elections, every can didate/party have their own representatives in most places where people vote. In addition to that, there are domestic and foreign ngo's that monitor the elections.

Those representatives are not allowed to monitor the counting of votes. They are sent home after the voting is done.

Opinion polls, both Ukrainian and foreign, taken before the election pretty much confirmed that Yanukovich and the Party of Regions are going to win. There may have been small irregularities, as there usually are, but on the whole, both Yanukovich and Party of Regions were voted in.

I don't deny it. But I can update you on the electoral tactics used by the Party of Regions. In the places where they were sure to win (South-East) it was all pretty much fair and square. The places they were sure to lose (Western Ukraine) got the same treatment: you can't fraud so much. I live in central Ukraine which (together with Kyiv) accounts for a third of the electorate. It is here that the violations were most outrageous. In five constituencies elections were held void as the results "couldn't be identified", as the officials said. In my city the head of the electoral board (when she saw that the candidate supported by the Party of Regions didn't win) took the seal of the board and the final protocol with the election results and disappeared. The ballots were destroyed so that re-counting could not be performed.

1. The government was appointed by the protest leaders and brought to parliament for confirmation.

Who do you consider protest leaders? Yatsenyuk, Klitschko and Tyagnybok? They were not. It was hard for them to control Maidan, they shuttled between Maidan and Yanukovych acting more like go-betweens than protest leaders. Very often Maidan expressed dissatisfaction with what they did stating that their protests were not aimed at any politician getting a new job. When the agreement with Yanukovych was reached it was Maidan that did not accept it. So it was the other way around: parliamentary opposition leaders after having consulatations brought the list of the ministers for Maidan to approve and then it was voted for officially in the parliament. And this approval by Maidan (by way of acclamation) did not satisfy Maidan. There are ministers who are held suspicious by Maidan and Yatsenyuk as a prime minister is not what the majority of Maidan likes. But Maidan agreed to it like an unpleasant neccessity liable to change if ministers start to abuse power.

2. They were political winners in the elections, current leadership in a putsch. If you don't understand the difference between the two, then there's not much I can do to help you.

So if you are a political winner in the election you can disregard the view of another half of the counrty. That's how political compomise works, I see.

[Fisherking]

The other side of the coin: http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-26531310

If your leader gives you a war everyone is going to rise to the patriotic cause and not look at what is happening at home.

I doubt that the west does any sanctions and Putin will be emboldened to do it all again, at least until everyone has had enough.

If he doesn’t get his fingers burned this time, what will the next time bring?

[Gilrandir]

I don't even see why Russia would want to have that many buffers when better relations could make buffers completely unnecessary.

It is not about having buffers. Or not only about having buffers. Putin is:
1) angry because things in Ukraine have gotten out of his control and it was not him who rode the storm. His bet Yanukovych was evicted too soon before he could play him to the full extent. In his 11 of March appearance to the public in Rostov Yanukovych was introduced to the audience not as "the President of Ukraine" but just his full name was recited. That says that Putin has now other cards to play, he needs Yanukovych little any more;
2) afraid because if Russians new about true reasons and nature of the protests something like that might happen in Russia, for, whatever Sarmatian the Omniscient may claim, curruption is still endemic in Russia, only it is more centralized and supervised.
So I believe it is emotions that goad Putin now rather than logical calculations and cold reason.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Lets all calm down and remind ourselves that none of us (save the insane) want a huge war with Russia.

From what I hear, the Crimean rebels have planted landmines across the border between the peninsula and mainland Ukraine. Which makes me wonder where exactly they got all this ordinance....

Do you believe that the majority ever wants war? Where one man in 1000 desires war, there it is. Horetore wants to disband his nations military in response to this crisis. How will he enforce his social and economic policies on those who won't listen? Probably by militarizing his police force.

Personally, I share the hopeful expectation that by 2025 the Russian Federation will be in some sort of defensive/economic cooperative with NATO and the EU in the face of growing Chinese irredentist pressure. I would like to see a relatively stable Northern Hemisphere with devolved political controls at the lower level. Putin and his allies in the Duma are probably the greatest opponents of this.

[Sarmatian]

Those representatives are not allowed to monitor the counting of votes. They are sent home after the voting is done.

I highly doubt that, as there must be some mechanisms to for all involved parties and foreign observers to verify the counting of the votes.

I don't deny it. But I can update you on the electoral tactics used by the Party of Regions. In the places where they were sure to win (South-East) it was all pretty much fair and square. The places they were sure to lose (Western Ukraine) got the same treatment: you can't fraud so much. I live in central Ukraine which (together with Kyiv) accounts for a third of the electorate. It is here that the violations were most outrageous. In five constituencies elections were held void as the results "couldn't be identified", as the officials said. In my city the head of the electoral board (when she saw that the candidate supported by the Party of Regions didn't win) took the seal of the board and the final protocol with the election results and disappeared. The ballots were destroyed so that re-counting could not be performed.

You can cite specific examples to you heart's desire. The bottom line is that everyone except Timoshenko confirmed that elections were honest. OSCE said the elections were "professional, transparent and honest", and it was confirmed by an army of other observers.

Who do you consider protest leaders? Yatsenyuk, Klitschko and Tyagnybok? They were not.

I know, which complicates things further.

It was hard for them to control Maidan, they shuttled between Maidan and Yanukovych acting more like go-betweens than protest leaders. Very often Maidan expressed dissatisfaction with what they did stating that their protests were not aimed at any politician getting a new job. When the agreement with Yanukovych was reached it was Maidan that did not accept it. So it was the other way around: parliamentary opposition leaders after having consulatations brought the list of the ministers for Maidan to approve and then it was voted for officially in the parliament. And this approval by Maidan (by way of acclamation) did not satisfy Maidan. There are ministers who are held suspicious by Maidan and Yatsenyuk as a prime minister is not what the majority of Maidan likes. But Maidan agreed to it like an unpleasant neccessity liable to change if ministers start to abuse power.

With this, and especially this last sentence, you hit the nail right on the head. Some western governments, happy that there's a chance that Ukraine shifts into their sphere of influence, started pouring tons of manure on the entire thing, hoping something beautiful will grow out of it. Most notably - the idea it was the Rada who threw Yanukovich out and that it was the Rada who elected a new government, like PVC and some others here mentioned. That allowed them to shroud everything in a veil of democracy and pretend it's all fine and dandy.

What the Russians have been saying is that it was a coup by protesters, and that this government can not be considered legal and legitimate for that reason.

At the end of the day, no matter how corrupt or hated the politicians are, 100,000, 200,000 or 300,000 protesters in Kiev don't have the right to decide for 50 million Ukrainians.

So if you are a political winner in the election you can disregard the view of another half of the counrty. That's how political compomise works, I see.

You obviously don't understand the basic principles of democracy or the purpose of the elections.

Sarmatian the Omniscient

Hey, thanks, I like the sound of that.

[Gilrandir]

I highly doubt that ...
You can cite specific examples to you heart's desire ...
You obviously don't understand...

These three dominate any comment you make aimed at me. You highly doubt anything I say, you disregard (through mistrust) examples I provide, you deny my having intelligence enough to contradict you.
Like I said: the picture is rigid, you don't want anything to spoil it.

What the Russians have been saying is that it was a coup by protesters, and that this government can not be considered legal and legitimate for that reason.

It was a coup as far as expelling yanukovych is concerned. Then the legal and legitimate parliament (which had been hitherto cheated of its rights) stepped in.

[Husar]

What I believe could be done is utilizing other levers than warfare. When the West introduced sanctions against Yanukovych and his posse his supporters fell off almost at once. They were more afraid to lose their fortunes and estates abroad than to call Yanukovych a traitor and a criminal. So, what I would hope to see is economic sanstions and traveling limitations. Since this war is waged not by one person (with his friends) but by the armed forces of the whole country (though unidentified still) it would be logical to freeze all financial operations of all people who have Russian citizenship and forbid them all to enter the countries that agree to introduce sanctions. I think within a couple of hours after that Putin will have very unpleasant talks with Abramovich, Deripasko and other Russian billionaires having business and property abroad. Plus thousands of Russians fuming at airports and railway stations whose trips have been cancelled would notify their president of their dissatisfaction and annoyance. It will make him more easy to persuade in the neccessity of negotiations, to say the least.

I'm not sure whether that would have the effect you desire or just increase the distance between Europe and Russia, making negotiations even less likely/more hostile.

[Sarmatian]

These three dominate any comment you make aimed at me. You highly doubt anything I say, you disregard (through mistrust) examples I provide, you deny my having intelligence enough to contradict you.
Like I said: the picture is rigid, you don't want anything to spoil it.

Intelligence? Can't say that. Understanding? Yes.

Iterating and reiterating specific and limited examples doesn't change the whole picture. For example, I may say that Norway is not a corrupt country. Someone may come and start citing examples of corruption - one, two, three.... ten or more, it doesn't matter. The basic truth still remains that Norway is not a corrupt country. That doesn't mean there isn't or that there has never been some acts of corruption in Norway, it means that there is very little corruption overall.

Likewise with elections - I don't pretend to know how elections in Ukraine are performed, other than common sense, but I do know how elections are monitored. Counting of the votes is just as important as casting of the votes and I know that organizations like OSCE wouldn't have judged the elections "honest, professional and transparent" if they couldn't verify the count itself. In that regard, yes, I trust OSCE a little more than I do you. So, unless, you have a good explanation how and why OSCE and other foreign observers all decided to cover up Yanukovich's scam, I'll continue to have little more faith in their than yours opinion. But, like in Norway example, that doesn't mean that there haven't been any local cases of someone trying to rig the elections. It means that on the whole, elections were fair and honest.

Call it rigid or however you like, I don't mind really.

It was a coup as far as expelling yanukovych is concerned. Then the legal and legitimate parliament (which had been hitherto cheated of its rights) stepped in.

I love how you managed to contradict yourself just a few posts apart.

[Fisherking]

What happened in Ukraine is important to everyone. It is more important that they follow through and get a working government that reduces corruption and reflects the will of the people to a better degree.

Unfortunately, I am not over optimistic on the outcome.

But it is dangerous to governments. It is a major threat to Russia, who has to make it about neo-Nazis and other fearful things. Else, Putin’s population would look around and see the same things that drove the Ukrainians.

It is not just about the Eurasian trading sphere, though that is part of it too.

Leaders and governments are about increasing their power, prestige, money, and influence. They think they reward the people by being able to bask in the reflected glory of their accomplishments. And the people seem to accept that.

That is the major thing that has to change.

[rvg]

But it is dangerous to governments. It is a major threat to Russia, who has to make it about neo-Nazis and other fearful things. Else, Putin’s population would look around and see the same things that drove the Ukrainians.

Exactly. Out of the three Russian states on the map (Russia, Ukraine and Belarus) only the people of Ukraine have maintained some semblance of freedom. Putin doesn't like that, as it sets a bad example for his biomass. He likes his biomass quiet, docile, obedient and unquestionably loyal to the great leader. So far I must say that he has done a superb job of moving the country in that direction.

[Fisherking]

I love how you managed to contradict yourself just a few posts apart.

I read that a bit differently.

It was a coup as far as yanukovych is concerned.

expelling just tells what happened to him. But just my reading.

[Gilrandir]

I'm not sure whether that would have the effect you desire or just increase the distance between Europe and Russia, making negotiations even less likely/more hostile.

Could be.

[Gilrandir]

Call it rigid or however you like, I don't mind really.

You really don't mind because in your picture the dark forces (as Yanukovych called them at his last briefing) have the highest concentration on and around Maidan. As you move farther from the governmental quarters in Kyiv neo-nazis become more and more scarce and are turned into Nazi-fighters as soon as you approach Eastern Ukraine and those nazi-fighters become abundant the moment you cross the border into Russia. You choose to turn a blind eye on witch-hunting for Bandera-followers in Russia, on kidnapping, robbing and tormenting journalists in the Crimea, on shutting down all Ukrainian TV channels there, on bullying Ukrainian soldiers with threats to massacre their families. As long as those cases are not attributed to Maidanian neo-nazis, you highly doubt them and call them specific examples that prove nothing.
It is giving the dog a bad name and hanging it. Until (or unless) the name is given the dog may bite at will.

[Gilrandir]

For example, I may say that Norway is not a corrupt country. Someone may come and start citing examples of corruption - one, two, three.... ten or more, it doesn't matter.

Yo, Hore Tore, it seems too soon to disband your army. You may need it to combat corruption. Well, no, I'm sorry it could be considered a neo-nazi way. You should first hold a debate on how legal/legitimate your army is and only then you can send it on any mission. Well, no, let me see: are there any neo-nazis from Maidan enlisted? No? Then you may sure advance against any enemy (neo-nazis from Maidan are recommended).

[Sarmatian]

I read that a bit differently.

How did you read that?

Who do you consider protest leaders? Yatsenyuk, Klitschko and Tyagnybok? They were not. It was hard for them to control Maidan, they shuttled between Maidan and Yanukovych acting more like go-betweens than protest leaders. Very often Maidan expressed dissatisfaction with what they did stating that their protests were not aimed at any politician getting a new job. When the agreement with Yanukovych was reached it was Maidan that did not accept it. So it was the other way around: parliamentary opposition leaders after having consulatations brought the list of the ministers for Maidan to approve and then it was voted for officially in the parliament. And this approval by Maidan (by way of acclamation) did not satisfy Maidan. There are ministers who are held suspicious by Maidan and Yatsenyuk as a prime minister is not what the majority of Maidan likes. But Maidan agreed to it like an unpleasant neccessity liable to change if ministers start to abuse power.

This part tells that it was the Maidan protesters that approved the government which was afterwards practically just ratified in the Rada. And the protesters promised, or threatened or however you want to call it, to replace the PM if they don't like him.

It was a coup as far as expelling yanukovych is concerned. Then the legal and legitimate parliament (which had been hitherto cheated of its rights) stepped in.

This part says the government was set up according to democratic principles by the Rada.


How do you not see the contradiction between these two statements?

What's the highest legislative body in Ukraine? Who sets up the government? The Maidan protesters or the parliament?

[Myth]

So will Putin get eastern Ukraine? Also, let's not demonize him. The westerners are no better, and the western "biomass" is just as brainwashed and docile. Especially in the USA where your major headlines are usually related to the skank of the day, be it Paris Hilton, Kim Kardashian or Miley Cyrus and some celebrity couple or other.

[Sarmatian]

You really don't mind because in your picture the dark forces (as Yanukovych called them at his last briefing) have the highest concentration on and around Maidan. As you move farther from the governmental quarters in Kyiv neo-nazis become more and more scarce and are turned into Nazi-fighters as soon as you approach Eastern Ukraine and those nazi-fighters become abundant the moment you cross the border into Russia. You choose to turn a blind eye on witch-hunting for Bandera-followers in Russia, on kidnapping, robbing and tormenting journalists in the Crimea, on shutting down all Ukrainian TV channels there, on bullying Ukrainian soldiers with threats to massacre their families. As long as those cases are not attributed to Maidanian neo-nazis, you highly doubt them and call them specific examples that prove nothing.
It is giving the dog a bad name and hanging it. Until (or unless) the name is given the dog may bite at will.

You're getting boring quickly with your childish behavior.

Go back and look in the thread where said Yanukovich was corrupt and where I wouldn't mind seeing him hanged by his private parts.
Go back and look in the thread where I said Russia was using propaganda to blow the nazi thing out of proportions.
Go back and look in the thread where I said I hope and wish Ukraine gets out of this in one piece
Go back and look in the thread where I said Crimean referendum would be illegitimate.

Even if I do see all that, I can not pretend to not see what was happening during the protests and after. You ousted one corrupt bastard and placed three persons in his place - one who's the first deputy of a corrupt bastard, one whose only previous job experience was getting hit in the head repeatedly, and a nazi. That's enough on its own to seriously screw up anyone but you've managed also to piss off your much larger and much more powerful neighbour.

Good luck getting out of that mess, and excuse me if I don't jump on the bandwagon.

[Fisherking]

So will Putin get eastern Ukraine? Also, let's not demonize him. The westerners are no better, and the western "biomass" is just as brainwashed and docile. Especially in the USA where your major headlines are usually related to the skank of the day, be it Paris Hilton, Kim Kardashian or Miley Cyrus and some celebrity couple or other.

Will Putin go that far? Wish I knew.

Putin is an excellent leader. A lot of the things he does are brilliant. He runs circles around the western ones.

He has a much better situational grasp than any of them. He can inspire and motivate. He can organize and excruciate a plan while the rest are still trying to get explained to them by their expert staff.

He does his job well. I just don’t think he is right. At least this time.

Meantime, the US is only making a little squeaky noises and most of the sheepole are watching the news to find out what happened to “ The Plane”. That would mostly be because the response from the west is so embarrassing. Better to cover it as “and also in the news”.

Putin can likely get away with what ever he wants this time because the US and the EU have their heads in a place with no sunlight.

[rvg]

Putin can likely get away with what ever he wants this time because the US and the EU have their heads in a place with no sunlight.

Maybe before Monday Obama will miraculously grow a spine?

[HoreTore]

Putin can likely get away with what ever he wants this time because the US and the EU have their heads in a place with no sunlight.

So does Putin.

[Fisherking]

Maybe before Monday Obama will miraculously grow a spine?

No, I hope not. It would only be something more stupid than what has gone before.

Besides, Arms dealers and the pentagon need another cold war. Terrorists don’t sell big hardware. Tens of thousands of drones are about all they can expect from that. The real money is in tanks, planes , and ships.

With the pay and benefit cuts they may not have any troops, but they won’t let that stop them.

This means big money for the defense and surveillance sectors.

So does Putin.

roflol

[Husar]

So does Putin.

Noone does that to our leaders and then we wonder why the Russians do not think we have a lot of credibility.
Even our newspapers make fun of their elected president.

[HoreTore]

Noone does that to our leaders and then we wonder why the Russians do not think we have a lot of credibility.
Even our newspapers make fun of their elected president.

Not a sex toy, but a hell of a lot creepier.

[Husar]

Not a sex toy, but a hell of a lot creepier.

Why creepy? Looks just like her.

[rvg]

So will Putin get eastern Ukraine? Also, let's not demonize him. The westerners are no better, and the western "biomass" is just as brainwashed and docile. Especially in the USA where your major headlines are usually related to the skank of the day, be it Paris Hilton, Kim Kardashian or Miley Cyrus and some celebrity couple or other.

Kim Kardashian doesn't lead to annexations though. Neither does Paris Hilton.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Do you believe that the majority ever wants war?

Spanish-American War due to the Maine sinking. WW2 due to Pearl Harbor. War on Terror due to 9/11.

Try harder.