Anyone taking bets on Medieval 3?

To my mind, the setting is important but I've got so many TW games now that I'd really just like one that's good. So for me, the more important question is: how broad will the campaign be?

Shogun, from the start has been a near perfect balance of size and scope. The 3d maps since R1 only work if pathing is extremely contricted by mountains (heaps of them in Japan) or other features (e.g. forests) - witness the huge problems of lost AI armies in R1 and Empire. Napoleon is simply too condensed for me: I want a multitude of factions and genuine options. But finding a balance which works with history is hard - especially when you introduce "technology" (through building chains or research).