Honestly I think Portugal or Denmark. The HRE can blob and conquer everything with smart crusade and merc use. Egypt has the richest ports in the game and the jihad mechanic. Denmark has some broken 2h infantry, 1 settlement, AI HRE, England and France nearby, the Crusade targets are usually 10 years away or complete crap (the ones in Lithuania). Portugal has to contend with the Moors, which is bad. And Spain starts stronger, which is also bad.