Ukraine-in-a-thread

[Gilrandir]

Some people here said that I had a wrong reading of Putin's words as to the involvement of Russian troops into annexing Crimea. I claimed that he admitted it while Sarmatian disagreed. It seems that my reading tallies with that of BBC:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28030004

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Called it. This one's far from over.

We'll see. The exemplary conduct of Ukraine's forces in Crimea got them jack, so if Russia won't demand the rebeles stand down, there's no point.

Some people here said that I had a wrong reading of Putin's words as to the involvement of Russian troops into annexing Crimea. I claimed that he admitted it while Sarmatian disagreed. It seems that my reading tallies with that of BBC:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28030004

I think only Sarmation thought there weren't massed Russian troops there.

[Sarmatian]

We'll see. The exemplary conduct of Ukraine's forces in Crimea got them jack, so if Russia won't demand the rebeles stand down, there's no point.



I think only Sarmation thought there weren't massed Russian troops there.

Of course there were/are Russian troops in Crimea. They've been there since the breakup of USSR

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Of course there were/are Russian troops in Crimea. They've been there since the breakup of USSR

Bullshit.

Even Puin admits Russian troops invaded sovereign Ukrainian Territory - he gave out medals after the annexation.

They're quite nice medals, to be fair, but don't give me any of this treaty crap. If the Ruskies were following the treaty they wouldn't have blockaded the Ukrainians inside their bases.

Stop playing Quisling

If you support the Tsar in his quest to unify all Slavs, just bloody well say so - stop pretending like this was anything but annexation and invasion.

[Sarmatian]

Bullshit.

Even Puin admits Russian troops invaded sovereign Ukrainian Territory - he gave out medals after the annexation.

Look, Tito received a Grand Cordon of the Order of Leopold. That means Belgium invaded Yugoslavia.

Did any of those medals actually went to a Russian soldier? No? Ok, then.

They're quite nice medals, to be fair, but don't give me any of this treaty crap. If the Ruskies were following the treaty they wouldn't have blockaded the Ukrainians inside their bases.

Those soldier didn't wear any insignia.

Stop playing Quisling

If you support the Tsar in his quest to unify all Slavs, just bloody well say so - stop pretending like this was anything but annexation and invasion.

That's it. You got me.

For the record, I don't condone annexation of Crimea, I'm just highly amused by your bias (insert Blackadder quote about spies).

[Gilrandir]

I think only Sarmation thought there weren't massed Russian troops there.

The reason for disagreement was not about Russain troops being present or absent, but about their participation in capturing major administrative buildings and blockading Ukrainian garrisons which Putin first denied and later admitted. Sarmatian claimed that he did not admit it and tried to interpret Putin's words of "Russian soldiers standing behind the Crimeans' backs" figuratively. Me and BBC took them literally.

[Gilrandir]

One more interview of a turncoat.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XL4i...ion_1739339075
The most essential in it is his admission that terrorists shell residential areas and later blame the Ukrainian army. It was this last straw that made him change sides, he says.

[Viking]

One more interview of a turncoat.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XL4i...ion_1739339075
The most essential in it is his admission that terrorists shell residential areas and later blame the Ukrainian army. It was this last straw that made him change sides, he says.

How do you verify that the video is real?

[Sarmatian]

How do you verify that the video is real?

You don't. You choose to believe it. That's how propaganda works.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Did any of those medals actually went to a Russian soldier? No? Ok, then.

I was under the impression they were issued.

Those soldier didn't wear any insignia.

Yeah, but they were Russians, and serving soldiers too from the garrisons, primarily. Marines and Special Forces.

Even Putin has admitted this.

Why won't you?

[Husar]

Maybe because people write his nickname wrong 90% of the time.

[Gilrandir]

How do you verify that the video is real?

There is no way to do it, as Sarmatian noted. But there is some circumstantial evidence which makes the video genuine, as I believe.
1. The information of defecting separatists is one of the new developments. Until now no separatists have been reported to change sides. The last two or three days the Ukrainian military in the war zone repeatedly claim that more and more separatists express their wish to quit and offer their services: they either are ready to fight under the Ukrainian banner (and then they are considered on probation) or (which is more often) to report on their former colleagues giving away places where they are concentrated, take their training, keep weapons and so on. Both are done with a view to amnesty.
2. The earlier information on mercenaries trying to escape to Russia indicates that they consider their situation precarious (to put it mildly) and simpler, "ordinary" folk, who are locals and have nowhere to escape to, are beginning to realize that too. They both start to sense which way the wind is blowing.
3. I have seen other videos where people (including a boy of 12-13 who with his family fled from his home town) claim that terrorists place their mortars in residential areas and start shelling both Ukrainian army positions and the vicinity as well. A couple of days ago in Slovyansk (during "the armistice") locals tried to protest against it but they were dispersed and some of them were forced to partcipate in digging trenches for separatists.
4. Ukrainian media may make mistakes (and it is no wonder in the situation like this) which amount to giving the unchecked information. But, AFAIK, Ukrainian side was never cought concocting "staged videos", such as Russians may do.
The way the guy in the video speaks, his vernacular and behavior, is typical of the people of the region. The story he tells is also typical: having no job and a small kid he was allured by the promised payment. His initial distrust and bias against the citizens of other parts of Ukraine was fanned by brainwashing and threats of "Bandera-followers coming and massacring the whole population of Donbas". Later he saw the looting which made him averse and finally witnessed the mentioned residential areas' shelling. Now he wants to reunite with his family which was evacuated to Russia as he was pesuaded (by his new commanders) that the moment Ukrainians find out that he was fighting against them they would capture his wife and kid and start blackmailing him.
His plans for future are astonishing but symptomatic, to my mind. After finding his family he wants to migrate to western Ukraine (which he is (or was) so apprehensive to) where people will not know about his past, find any job (even manure carting will do) and forget all the horrors of the war.
All this considering, I'm inclined to believe the video.

[Sarmatian]

I was under the impression they were issued.



Yeah, but they were Russians, and serving soldiers too from the garrisons, primarily. Marines and Special Forces.

Even Putin has admitted this.

Why won't you?

Putin never admitted it. What Gilrandir takes for admission of their presence is really a confirmation of support, without any indication what that support may have been. Interpreting that as "we have boots on the ground" is quite ludicrous.

Now, whether or not Russian professionals were actually involved makes little difference. The entire thing was most certainly sponsored by Russia. Whether they sent some professionals, or some veterans, or some super-secret special forces, or some volunteers or some "private security firm" doesn't matter. Bottom line - Russia was involved. That's a fact.

That doesn't make it ok, it just makes it business as usual in the world. It's been happening and will continue to happen. Smaller countries will get screwed when it is in the interest of bigger countries.

Maybe because people write his nickname wrong 90% of the time.

Yeah, I was wondering about that. Sarmatian or Sarmation. This being a TW forum, I would guess most people wouldn't have a problem with Sarmatian, as in member of Sarmatian tribe. Does Sarmation mean anything?

[Gilrandir]

Putin never admitted it. What Gilrandir takes for admission of their presence

Not me alone. Me and BBC. As Mr. Bonacieux put it, "I was cheated on not alone. France was cheated on as well. It is a conspiracy against me and France."
But you miss the point. The issue was not whether Russian military were or weren't involved. The issue was that Putin lied and then was caught lying.

[GenosseGeneral]

Putin never admitted it. What Gilrandir takes for admission of their presence is really a confirmation of support, without any indication what that support may have been. Interpreting that as "we have boots on the ground" is quite ludicrous.

Now, whether or not Russian professionals were actually involved makes little difference. The entire thing was most certainly sponsored by Russia. Whether they sent some professionals, or some veterans, or some super-secret special forces, or some volunteers or some "private security firm" doesn't matter. Bottom line - Russia was involved. That's a fact.

Those were certainly Russian troops, no super-secret-Special Forces. Some of the better equipped forces, though, very likely Marines, maybe VDV as well.
How I know that? Well, I have seen the pictures. For instance, they had certain optics mounted on their rifles which are solely available to Russian forces as well VSS and (allegedly, I haven't seem them on footage from Crimea) even rifles from the AK100-series.

Gilrandir, you cannot deny though, that Ukrainian forces are shelling and bombing towns and cities in the Donbass. That civilians are killed in these attacks is not astonishing. I don't think, for instance, that the shells fired by the battery in this vid differentiate between separatist positions and people's homes. https://m.facebook.com/l.php?u=https...LQIbuUibfs&s=1

[Gilrandir]

Gilrandir, you cannot deny though, that Ukrainian forces are shelling and bombing towns and cities in the Donbass. That civilians are killed in these attacks is not astonishing.

I don't deny it and I never did. I just want others to see that it is not like Americans bombing Dresden in WWII. That is, it is not "bombing cities and towns" but rather bombing places in cities and towns where separatists are. Collateral damage mainly occurs when Ukrainian army shells residential areas in response to separatists attacking them from there and is not done deliberately for any other purposes (unlike what separatists are doing).

[GenosseGeneral]

Breakin news: The separatists have abandoned Slovyansk and moved into Donetsk. I am not sure, whether this makes the situation better or worse.

[Viking]

Still haven't seen any footage from Slavyansk.

[Viking]

According to BBC and this video, the Ukrainian forces have also retaken Kramatorsk.

The pro-Russian gunmen abandoned the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, as well as some smaller towns, in the north of Donetsk region.

Will be interesting to see what follows next. Donets and Luhansk are large cities. In theory, they should be hard to defend for smaller forces.

[Gilrandir]

According to BBC and this video, the Ukrainian forces have also retaken Kramatorsk.

+ Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka

Donets and Luhansk are large cities. In theory, they should be hard to defend for smaller forces.

On the contrary, small groups of terrorists can disperse all over the city and afflict Ukrainian forces for quite a long time.

[Viking]

If the separatists allow the Ukrainian forces to enter the city, they would have to resort to guerrilla-like tactics, which they would not be able to sustain for long. The way I see it, they either have to attempt to hold the city a lot like a regular army would, or they are done for.

[Gilrandir]

If the separatists allow the Ukrainian forces to enter the city, they would have to resort to guerrilla-like tactics, which they would not be able to sustain for long. The way I see it, they either have to attempt to hold the city a lot like a regular army would, or they are done for.

Strelkov said that for them it would be much more convenient to act in a big city. They know that the Ukrainian army got an order to avoid shelling residential areas, so they would place snipers in apartments (much as they did in Slovyansk) and would probably resort to the tactics you mentioned acting in small groups (of 3-5) and destabilizing situation for as long as they can.
Holding the city as a whole is not possible since, first of all, it is not so much fortified as Slovyansk was (and can't be owing to the size of the city), and second of all, the Ukrainian army already has a foothold within it - the airport.

[GenosseGeneral]

It is really hard to tell, whether the rebels will be able to actually defend Donetsk or not. That largely depends also on the degree, to which Kyiv can still exert influence over local police and security forces (probably to a very little degree) and on the support the separatists can get from the population. I can imagine that people in Donetsk have seen how Slovyansk looks like and don't want this to happen in their city. On the other hand, the fact that Ukrainian forces have shelled residential areas might as well increase resistance against the "Kyiv junta".
But if the separatists were really able to defend Donetsk, why haven't they taken the city completely earlier on? It seems like they could move around the Donbass freely earlier on (note the "parade" of the Vostok battaillon). Also some of the bloodiest battles was the one for Donetsk airport about 2-3 weeks ago, in which at least 33 separatists died.
Latest news is, that the airports of Donetsk and Luhansk (both currently under government control, according to Ukrainian news sources) are under attack again, under use of mortars and "Grad"-launchers, fired from residential areas. It is definitely a rationale of the separatists to make the government attack residential areas from air or with artillery.

To me, the "moving" of the separatists seems like a somewhat daring, but well calculated strategic move. While Ukrainian forces cautiously move into Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, both of which have been mined before, the separatists try to take at least parts of Luhansk and Donetsk in order regroup there. On footage taken in Slovyansk, you can see that the most elite Ukrainian units (special forces of the SBU) are currently busy there. As long as the separatists hold the airports, they might also be evacuated by airlifts to Russia or receive reinforcements. It depends on their supporters in Moscow.
The separatists had to leave a quite large quantity of weaponry behind in Slovyansk, most from what I have seen were MANPADs and/or anti-tank missiles. They seem to be able to sustain coordinated attacks, though, once again demonstrating that they are far more professional than just a bunch of locals who grabbed rifles.

I fear that the current, open military resistance might turn into terrorism, if the separatists loose on the open field. They certainly have the means to make this a very nasty asymmetrical war, if the Russian 'tourists', especially the Chechens, stay in the Donbass.

EDIT: I just stumbled upon a map, showing which areas are controlled by which side.
http://kor.ill.in.ua/m/610x0/1460846...02553180051272
Note that it is in Ukrainian though (but you can unfortunately barely read anything on it anyway). Just note that it shows the Donetsk and the Luhansk region, parts being controlled by the government are painted in Ukrainian national colours, whereas separatist-controlled regions are the striped parts.The 2 explosions in the center roughly mark Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. In this map, Luhansk and Donetsk are both marked as separatist-controlled, although they are on the very edge of that area.
Note that the source is the Ukrainian national security and defence council, so basically the gremium in charge of the government's operation in the area.

[Viking]

Strelkov said that for them it would be much more convenient to act in a big city. They know that the Ukrainian army got an order to avoid shelling residential areas, so they would place snipers in apartments (much as they did in Slovyansk) and would probably resort to the tactics you mentioned acting in small groups (of 3-5) and destabilizing situation for as long as they can.
Holding the city as a whole is not possible since, first of all, it is not so much fortified as Slovyansk was (and can't be owing to the size of the city), and second of all, the Ukrainian army already has a foothold within it - the airport.

As far as I know, the airport in Donetsk is cut off from the rest of the Ukrainian forces. It's not a position they can easily take more land from.

If they get foothold in the city, they can place snipers on high-rise buildings and get a decent idea of everything that moves below, they can launch patrols into all of the city etc. They'd be able to really employ their superiority in numbers and hardware. Plus the stuff below ↓

I fear that the current, open military resistance might turn into terrorism, if the separatists loose on the open field. They certainly have the means to make this a very nasty asymmetrical war, if the Russian 'tourists', especially the Chechens, stay in the Donbass.

They would have most locals turn against them if they did that. In war, being seen as the current aggressor and cause for the war's continuation makes people negatively affected resent you, unless they are convinced that there is a really good reason for the war's continuation.

Foreign fighters, of whom there are many, should be especially vulnerable to a lack of local support. They need structures to support them.

[Gilrandir]

As far as I know, the airport in Donetsk is cut off from the rest of the Ukrainian forces. It's not a position they can easily take more land from.

Yet they can bring in reinforcements by air and launch a combined attack both from within the city and from without.

They would have most locals turn against them if they did that. In war, being seen as the current aggressor and cause for the war's continuation makes people negatively affected resent you, unless they are convinced that there is a really good reason for the war's continuation.

Foreign fighters, of whom there are many, should be especially vulnerable to a lack of local support. They need structures to support them.

They don't care. By now they seem so desperate that they continue fighting in spite of any civilian casualties and infrastructure damage they may cause, probably even trying to enhance both. They still hope that if it creates a picture deplorable enough Russia may somehow interfere (even if by sending "peacekeepers" as it did in Abkhasia).

[Viking]

Yet they can bring in reinforcements by air and launch a combined attack both from within the city and from without.

The airbridge is not safe, as has been demonstrated earlier. Until the airport is linked up with the Ukrainian-held territories, it'll remain a defensive position.

They don't care. By now they seem so desperate that they continue fighting in spite of any civilian casualties and infrastructure damage they may cause, probably even trying to enhance both. They still hope that if it creates a picture deplorable enough Russia may somehow interfere (even if by sending "peacekeepers" as it did in Abkhasia).

If they have a majority of the local population against them and Ukrainian forces in the city, they are dead meat soon enough. It'll just be a matter of time.

[Gilrandir]

If they have a majority of the local population against them and Ukrainian forces in the city, they are dead meat soon enough. It'll just be a matter of time.

In Slovyansk by the end of occupation locals were against the terrorists, yet they could do nothing against the armed people. If you have a gun and a posse of your kind beside you, you can disregard the locals' opinion.

[Viking]

In Slovyansk by the end of occupation locals were against the terrorists, yet they could do nothing against the armed people. If you have a gun and a posse of your kind beside you, you can disregard the locals' opinion.

↓↓

If they have a majority of the local population against them and Ukrainian forces in the city, they are dead meat soon enough. It'll just be a matter of time.

The more locals they have against them, the more likely that hideouts, troop sightings etc. are reported to the government forces. That's what I am talking about.

I suppose one of the reasons that the government forces are reluctant to enter more cities is the risk that previous scenarios where the armour is stopped by angry locals, with armed separatists sneaking up to them, will be repeated. It could also end with nasty street fighting that could destroy much property and cause great civilian casualties.

-----

Supposedly, there is some talk about arms delivery from Russia in this video, but my Russian is not anywhere near good enough to decipher it.

[Gilrandir]

Supposedly, there is some talk about arms delivery from Russia in this video, but my Russian is not anywhere near good enough to decipher it.

The guy who is talking to separatists is Kurginyan, the notorious Russian who organized marches in Moscow in support of Crimea annexation and in protest against Maidan (promising to nip in the bud all attempts to have Maidan in Moscow).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KgOVUdOXgYk
He heads the movement called "Essence of the time" vehemently supporting Putin's politics.
As for the video, at the ouset Kurginyan seems unconscious of the identity of his interlocutors and is greatly pleased when he learns that he is talking to Gubarev. DPR leaders upbraid him that Russia's support is not sufficient and that most weapons that Russia delivers to Donbas are outdated or subject to malfunctioning. Kurginyan agrees but he says that they can't deny the very fact of Russian support, insufficient as it may be, and promises to try to convince Russia to enhance the weapon supply. He sees the reasons of its insufficiency in the fact that weapons are provided not by Russian authorities but by Russian "civil society". How Russian civil society can come by tanks, missile launchers, APCs, spitfires and other things is not explained while Ukrainian military found whole arsenals of weapons in Slovyansk (most of them brand-new) with accompanying documents proving their source being Russian army detachments, not mythical shops Putin spoke of nor civil society imaginary storehouses or hoards.
http://glavred.info/politika/geletey...y-foto-284459.

[Husar]

Maybe you should watch Lord of War. It's a bit over the top but apparently after the cold war ended one could buy almost anything out of former soviet arsenals provided one had enough money to do so.