Ukraine-in-a-thread

[Husar]

So the army has separated the separatists...

[HopAlongBunny]

Speculation it might have been an "Oops" moment by a Ukrainian aircraft:

http://www.gasandoil.com/oilaround/2...-a-missile201d

[Viking]

Does that guy even know how BUK missiles may work?

Rather than striking an aircraft directly, missiles in this class fly a course that is designed to intercept the targeted aircraft and explode beneath it, creating a cloud of shrapnel.

At the end of the missiles’ flight, they act “more like a shotgun than a rifle,” Mr. Foster said, adding: “one is attempting to put as many consistently sized, low-drag fragments into the airframe as possible.”

[Husar]

Speculation it might have been an "Oops" moment by a Ukrainian aircraft:

http://www.gasandoil.com/oilaround/2...-a-missile201d

I already mentioned that the aircraft was at 10km and the SU-25 has a service ceiling of 7km.
Can anyone please explain how a SU-25 can fire its gun at a plane 3km above its maximum flight altitude and how any plane can shoot at a civilian airliner with its gun by accident? this was a big passenger plane and guns are used well within visual range, if that is what happened then whoever did it shot down the plane on purpose. You simply cannot mistake an airliner for an enemy airplane unless you are so drunk that it's a wonder you actually managed to take off.

[HopAlongBunny]

Yes I realize the article is not a clear, definitive case. Its merely a possibility.
Apparently you did not read the article to where it is explained why a passenger craft was targeted, and shot down on purpose.
Since you can't be bothered to read and I can't be bothered to quote it, g'day.

[Husar]

Yes I realize the article is not a clear, definitive case. Its merely a possibility.
Apparently you did not read the article to where it is explained why a passenger craft was targeted, and shot down on purpose.
Since you can't be bothered to read and I can't be bothered to quote it, g'day.

Yes, the plane would still be missing 3km of altitude to reach the airliner. It cannot fly to 7km, point its gun straight upwards and hit an airliner 3km higher with its gun. The SU-25 is a ground attack aircraft that is neither made to fly that high nor to attack aircraft in the first place. So what was it doing at 10km altitude and how did it even get up there in the first place? This story would be far more believable had it been a MiG-29 or a SU-27 which have a service ceiling of 18km and 19km respectively, compared to the 7km of the SU-25. Again, MH-17 was flying at an altitude of 10km.

I even found a link for you, this guy doesn't even consider the guns but only talks about the short range missiles the SU-25 can carry for self defense, even with those it would be a stretch: http://aviationweek.com/blog/how-su-...lying-aircraft

And more: http://www.popsci.com/article/techno...hoot-down-mh17

[Gilrandir]

Their losses continue to be high, mostly due to the highly effective artillery/Grad fire their positions take. 2 brigades seem to be more or less cut off from their supply lines while they are under sustained, systematic fire.

The hardest fire to counter is the one produced by the Russian army (from Russia and from Ukraine):
http://news.bigmir.net/ukraine/83486...jas--v-Ukraine
In this one a Russian soldier reports "working on Buk" (whatever that may mean - it can well be translated as "working with Buk" or "from Buk"). He uploaded those photos into Instagram which has a geolocator. The latter identified his position as the villages Krasnaya Talovka and Krasny Derkul which are both UKRAINIAN VILLAGES 15 KM from the nearest Russian settlement.
However, the more frequent cases are those when the Ukrainian army positions are attacked with Grad across the border from Russia.

Territories taken back from the separatists are systematically mined.

Though it happens as you say, I wouldn't put it that way. Rather it is that minefields and mines on the roads and across the countryside (as well as within the cities) are detected ever and anon by Ukrainian mine pickers. So (to my mind) a more correct statement could be: Territories taken back from the separatists have been systematically mined.

At the same time, protests against the latest draft become stronger

Strange as it may seem, quite a number of adequately trained troops (comprised of volunteers mostly with a military experience) eager to depart to the East are still waiting for the assignment while it will take the newly drafted some time to be prepared for it.

[Husar]

The hardest fire to counter is the one produced by the Russian army (from Russia and from Ukraine):
http://news.bigmir.net/ukraine/83486...jas--v-Ukraine
In this one a Russian soldier reports "working on Buk" (whatever that may mean - it can well be translated as "working with Buk" or "from Buk"). He uploaded those photos into Instagram which has a geolocator. The latter identified his position as the villages Krasnaya Talovka and Krasny Derkul which are both UKRAINIAN VILLAGES 15 KM from the nearest Russian settlement.

How accurate is that anyway? If he posted them from inside the Buk, his GPS/GLONASS may well be 20km off.

[Gilrandir]

How accurate is that anyway? If he posted them from inside the Buk, his GPS/GLONASS may well be 20km off.

Regretfully, being a high tech imbecile (as a colleague of mine put it - talking about herself, but I may as well qualify to this description), I have no idea how it works. Perhaps there could be found explanations that work either way. But this is not the first time (and evidently not the last time, although I heard that Russian authorities ordered their military to put an end to their social media presence) similar bad calls from Russian conscripts and civilians have been detected. The tendency is in evidence (corroborated by what the Ukrainian military claim and what American intelligence has discovered) so I have no doubt that Russia takes an active part in fighting supporting the separatists with fire across the border.

[Husar]

Regretfully, being a high tech imbecile (as a colleague of mine put it - talking about herself, but I may as well qualify to this description), I have no idea how it works. Perhaps there could be found explanations that work either way. But this is not the first time (and evidently not the last time, although I heard that Russian authorities ordered their military to put an end to their social media presence) similar bad calls from Russian conscripts and civilians have been detected. The tendency is in evidence (corroborated by what the Ukrainian military claim and what American intelligence has discovered) so I have no doubt that Russia takes an active part in fighting supporting the separatists with fire across the border.

It does seem to be the case that Russians are in Ukraine, but if a GPS gets a bad signal inside a building or I suppose also inside a relatively well armored vehicle, it can be quite some ways off and think you are in the neighboring city or so.
So I wouldn't take some metadata from inside a Buk as 100% accurate. Of course that also doesn't mean that he is not in Ukraine, but I wouldn't call that a hard fact.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

It does seem to be the case that Russians are in Ukraine, but if a GPS gets a bad signal inside a building or I suppose also inside a relatively well armored vehicle, it can be quite some ways off and think you are in the neighboring city or so.
So I wouldn't take some metadata from inside a Buk as 100% accurate. Of course that also doesn't mean that he is not in Ukraine, but I wouldn't call that a hard fact.

Alternatively, he could be even deeper in Ukraine.

[Gilrandir]

... if a GPS gets a bad signal inside a building or I suppose also inside a relatively well armored vehicle ...

As far as I know (
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_missile_system) Buk consists of 4 components, so "working with Buk" may actually mean being in the fresh air running errands from one component to another. So as like as not there may have been no impediment to GPS signals.

[Husar]

Alternatively, he could be even deeper in Ukraine.

Yes, like somewhere around Kiev.

As far as I know (
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_missile_system) Buk consists of 4 components, so "working with Buk" may actually mean being in the fresh air running errands from one component to another. So as like as not there may have been no impediment to GPS signals.

Yes, now let's speculate about why Ukraine shot down MH-17 as there was a picture of a drunken Ukrainian army Buk crew somewhere on the internets.

[Gilrandir]

Yes, now let's speculate about why Ukraine shot down MH-17 as there was a picture of a drunken Ukrainian army Buk crew somewhere on the internets.

Unlike this picture, Russian shelling Ukrainian army both from within and from without the border has multiple corroborative proofs which you yourself seem to consider valid:

It does seem to be the case that Russians are in Ukraine

[Brenus]

News at the BBC this morning: Ukrainian Army crossed Russian Border. Any confirmation on social Network?

[Husar]

Unlike this picture, Russian shelling Ukrainian army both from within and from without the border has multiple corroborative proofs which you yourself seem to consider valid:

Russians does not necessarily mean the Russian army. And if I consider something valid or proven, I don't say "seem".
At the moment I just assume that everybody is lying about Ukraine, that's about the only certainty there is.

[Gilrandir]

Russians does not necessarily mean the Russian army.

The information in the social media that exposes the said shelling was posted by Russian military servicemen (mostly privates) which means Russian regular army. But I think that the shelling is also done by the separatists who constantly sneak across the border and back to collect weapons left and/or delivered for them by the Russian military.

News at the BBC this morning: Ukrainian Army crossed Russian Border. Any confirmation on social Network?

You didn't mention which way the Ukrainian army crossed the border.
Being no resident of any social networks I have no idea what they say (and indeed, would you trust it?), but I can offer two pieces of latest information connected with the border-crossing:
1. Yesterday from 300 to 400 Ukrainian soldiers crossed into Russia by way of a crossing point. They said that after 4 hours under fire they were left without any heavy weaponry and equipment, so a part of them broke through to join with the back up force which was coming to relieve them, and the others (to save their lives) crossed into Russia.
2. Today most of the said Ukirainians crossed the border back into Ukraine and joined with the rest of ATO forces.

[Sarmatian]

What I like is that Russia allowed 438 men, who were pinned down, unable to move, under heavy artillery fire, to cross the border. Then they were given food, shelter, water for shower and allowed back across the border (for those who wanted to, obviously) to rejoin Ukrainian army or national guard, while new sanctions are being discussed because Russia supports federalists strongly.

[Gilrandir]

What I like is that Russia allowed 438 men, who were pinned down, unable to move, under heavy artillery fire, to cross the border. Then they were given food, shelter, water for shower and allowed back across the border (for those who wanted to, obviously) to rejoin Ukrainian army or national guard, while new sanctions are being discussed because Russia supports federalists strongly.

That makes Putin a shoo-in for the next Nobel Peace prize. His army lives up to its nickname "polite men" earned while annexing the Crimea.
You forget that all this was done in the presence of OSCE mission members.

[Brenus]

"You forget that all this was done in the presence of OSCE mission members." Your peaceful army is shelling towns in presence of OSCE. So much for the OSCE effect, at least on Ukrainian side...
And the fact that OSCE is there doesn't obliged Russia to return Ukrainian Soldiers. If fact, Russia could easily put them in jail for illegal crossing a border, as I suppose Ukrainian Soldiers have no passport and no visa...

[Gilrandir]

Your peaceful army is shelling towns in presence of OSCE. So much for the OSCE effect, at least on Ukrainian side...

OSCE mission are not present where the fighting is going on so it can have no effect on the Ukrainian army allegedly shelling towns. Instead, AFAIK, OSCE mission are present at Ukraine-Russia border crossing points and have reported on the Ukrainian military crossing the border.

And the fact that OSCE is there doesn't obliged Russia to return Ukrainian Soldiers. If fact, Russia could easily put them in jail for illegal crossing a border, as I suppose Ukrainian Soldiers have no passport and no visa...

1. Ukrainians need neither foreign passport nor visa to come to Russia. They must show their internal (Ukrainian) passport to do that. So much for your perspicacious and sinister .
2. Today the news came that at least 5 Ukrainian officers and 18 soldiers have been detained by FSB and charged with shelling the Russian territory. So they ARE in jail. (Sarmatian would probably remark: "At least they've had their shower".) So much for kind and obliging Russian authorities.
The only comfort I got from your post is that you capitalized Ukrainian Soldiers.

[Brenus]

“So much for your perspicacious and sinister” In uniforms and weaponry? I doubt it, but perhaps Russia is not that bothered by armed Ukrainian soldiers crossing its borders.

“So much for kind and obliging Russian authorities.” Remember, Russians are evil drinkers.

“Ukrainian army allegedly shelling towns.” I was expecting the denial. Sources: red Cross, about the shelling.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_5629677.html
Do note I am careful not to put link with RT or/and Russian Media
You don’t have to read the article; it will spoil your moral high ground.

However, the "liberation" of East-Ukraine is more difficult and bloodiest than the annexation of Crimea apparently... Oops...

[Kralizec]

So, it looks like the clock is running out for the separatists.

Does anybody care to guess wether Russia will intervene directly for 'humanitarian reasons' or whatever? Honestly I don't know what to expect.

[rvg]

So, it looks like the clock is running out for the separatists.

Does anybody care to guess wether Russia will intervene directly for 'humanitarian reasons' or whatever? Honestly I don't know what to expect.

Yes, on its own this insurgency is doomed. As for Putin's intervention, I doubt he'll go for it because of several reasons:

1. Incorporating land is expensive. He already had to raid the federal pension budget to pay for Crimea, and the people are not amused. Incorporating land devastated by war is even more expensive.

2. Eastern Ukraine on its own means nothing to him: he wants all of Ukraine. If Russian tanks roll in, he'll be pushing until they reach the Polish border. That means casualties, lots and lots of casualties on both sides. Once Russian troops start arriving home in boxes, Putin's popularity will take a nosedive.

3. If he moves in, I'm pretty sure that NATO will provide Ukraine with some serious support (aka weapons + volunteers).

4. Lots of people in his inner circle are already losing money and do not want any further escalation. He ultimately calls the shots, but he can't risk alienating his base.

[Kralizec]

"Putin has joined Western leaders and imposed sanctions against us as well"

[Husar]

"Putin has joined Western leaders and imposed sanctions against us as well"

That second picture immediately reminded me of these:
http://kimjongillookingatthings.tumblr.com
http://kimjongunlookingatthings.tumblr.com

edit: here we go:
http://putin-looking-at-things.tumblr.com

[Brenus]

“he wants all of Ukraine” Explain how do you reach this conclusion, please. You probably have some reasoning in this, as there are actually evidences or hints he was not. If he was, he would have done it when the troops were at the borders.
But annexing Ukraine has a cost, as EU will acknowledge (probably already knows, should I say) and will have to pay the bill of a complete bankrupted country. Why Putin would be happy to pay it? Apart silly reason like Putin being new Hitler, can you give at least 2 or 3 reasons, basis, on what you draw this interesting idea?

“volunteers”: You having a laugh. Volunteers? To fight for a country banning political parties and shelling civilians? Against Russia? Last time we did, it finish very badly…
In fact, extreme-right/nazi might be tempted to take revenge on the 3rd Reich defeat, but I doubt it will be in massive number.

[Papewaio]

"Putin has joined Western leaders and imposed sanctions against us as well"

Here in Australia there is speculation that food prices will go down as we export slightly less to Russia.

[Sarmatian]

Great news. Serbia already has an increased export to Russia compared to last year. With this we can probably reach additional 0.3bn by the end of the year, and between 0.5 and 1bn in the next.

It's reminiscent of the good old days of the Cold War - NATO on one side, Russia on the other and us in the middle making a big, fat pile of cash out of both. :D

[Myth]

Warning: Some graphic material in there! - Husar