Ukraine Thread

[Kagemusha]

As the original thread has been closed, because of complete sidetracking. I thought of returning to the subject, because of the recent developments.

Linky: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28969784

Apparently modern Russian equipment are crawling all over the separatist controlled area in Eastern Ukraine, accompanied by familiar masked "little green men" carrying modern Russian military gear.

While the "ceasefire" at least at Donetsk airport has never really even materialized, now some experts claim that large scale warfare will start in matter of days.

I dont like this development one bit.

[Sarmatian]

I was wondering when someone will reopen the discussion.

A big opportunity for peace has been missed. After the Ukrainian parliamentary elections, Russia recognized the results as legitimate will of the Ukrainian people. A few days later, elections in the rebel controlled areas were held, and representatives elected. It was a perfect occasion for two sides to recognize each other's representatives so that proper dialogue can start. Kiev refused to do so.

Instead, Kiev proceeded to physically cut the rebel controlled areas from the rest of the country - passport control, cutting them off the budget (pensions, salaries...) and refusing to supply them with basic necessities, most importantly gas for heating.

Now, all potential avenues for dialogue are closed, and there simply is no other options for people in Donetsk and Lugansk but to fight and try to secede. I'm hoping it won't come to that. but they have been cornered, there's no other way to go for them now.

I'm still trying to understand why Kiev did what they did.

[a completely inoffensive name]

It's November 13th, and Putin is still a fascist.

[Strike For The South]

Don't worry I'm sure once he gets sudentanland Eastern Ukarine I'm sure he will stop. I'm not even sure those brutish drunks know how much up shit creek they really are

[HoreTore]

I hear Darth Sidious is on his way.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30039004

The Russians are transporting their dead soldiers home.

Not like we didn't know of course.

Kiev, of course, expected Russia and the Separatists to follow the proposed timetable. Likewise, Russia and the Separatists never intended to.

If the Separatists were going to hold election two days after the Ukrainian one that would have been what was reported ALL OVER THE WORLD after the Minsk talks.

I think the best we can hope for now is that Ukraine is able to push the rebels back when they launch their spring offensive (the rebels have admitted it's coming).

[Brenus]

Well, according my Yahoo:
Putin prepared the WW3 years ago.
Russia start to feel the pinch of sanctions for months (nothing to do with the oil prices going down apparently)
Putin allied with IS.
Putin was invading Ukraine.
Bombers carrying Nuclear weapons are daily intercepted by (Norwegian, British, Polish, NATO) airplanes (pictures of Tupolev T 95 4 engines Bear as illustration)
Russian Navy spying from International Waters New-Zealand.
Bombers (again Tupolev T 95 Bear) flying near Cuba, then New-Zealand.
Russian sub-marine is being spotted by Norwegian (I think) Navy.
Russia starts to feel the pinch of Western Sanction (again).
Hundreds of thousands of Russian troops are gathering near the borders with thousands of tanks.

I probably forget some.

So, it is time for Putin to DO something…

[Gilrandir]

A big opportunity for peace has been missed. After the Ukrainian parliamentary elections, Russia recognized the results as legitimate will of the Ukrainian people.

But the separatists never did since those were junta elections.

A few days later, elections in the rebel controlled areas were held, and representatives elected. It was a perfect occasion for two sides to recognize each other's representatives so that proper dialogue can start. Kiev refused to do so.

Considering the way the "elections" were held that was a sensible decision. Should Ukraine have recognized the Crimean "referendum"?

Instead, Kiev proceeded to physically cut the rebel controlled areas from the rest of the country - passport control, cutting them off the budget (pensions, salaries...) and refusing to supply them with basic necessities, most importantly gas for heating.

The latter is wrong. Yatsenyuk said that they will not cut the occupied territories from gas and electricity supply for the people (some of whom surreptitiously support Ukraine) not to freeze in winter although he realizes that the services they will enjoy will not be paid for (at least so far). Experts suspect that such a decision was adopted partly because the cutting off can't be technically achieved.
As for cutting off the budget, how could you imagine the opposite? For example, a substantial part of high school and university teachers openly support DPR and proclaim themselves citizens of it - should Ukraine have them on the paylist? The same with other categories of state employees: Ukraine can't control performing their duties, so it doesn't pay them.

Now, all potential avenues for dialogue are closed, and there simply is no other options for people in Donetsk and Lugansk but to fight and try to secede. I'm hoping it won't come to that. but they have been cornered, there's no other way to go for them now.

Those who fight mostly have nothing to do with people of Luhansk and Donetsk (as I have pointed out elsewhere). But those who fight have already poclaimed their seccession and even held the elections to legitimize it. Consequently they have other reasons to go on fighting than seccession which they have already attained.

[
I think the best we can hope for now is that Ukraine is able to push the rebels back when they launch their spring offensive (the rebels have admitted it's coming).

There is no talk now of pushing back (for fear of direct Russian intervention as it was in August) but of holding the current front line. Rather it is the rebels who are pushing on (they have captured a number of checkpoints in Luhansk region since "the ceasefire" was in effect).

So, it is time for Putin to DO something…

He is doing it all the time (the reports of recent reinforcements and weapon supplies across the border come from different quarters). If you don't see it it doesn't mean it isn't there.

[Gilrandir]

Linky: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28969784

The linked article claims that

Russian President Vladimir Putin said that all they agreed to in Minsk was to hold elections "in co-ordination with, not in line with" Ukrainian election plans.

Compare point 9 of Minsk protocol
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_Protocol
Now who's lying - BBC or Putin?

And I don't like the thread title - The empire struck back on August 24. Now it strikes on.

[Viking]

So this is what 'shirtfront' means.

[Greyblades]

Man, the koala on the right looks really uncomfortable. And what happened to thier fur?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Ukraine should let the Eastern regions secede. They cannot out-compete Russian (which is what the current fight is, regardless of how "officially" or not Russians are directly involved) resources without an outside ally willing to risk bloodshed in large quantities to assist them. Such an ally does not exist.

Fighting it out would be legally correct and the braver choice....just won't work though.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Ukraine should let the Eastern regions secede. They cannot out-compete Russian (which is what the current fight is, regardless of how "officially" or not Russians are directly involved) resources without an outside ally willing to risk bloodshed in large quantities to assist them. Such an ally does not exist.

Fighting it out would be legally correct and the braver choice....just won't work though.

That's not entirely true.

Russia, as the aggressor, is fighting for gain whilst Ukraine is fighting for it's survival. If Ukraine allows secession now the Rebels will push to take the remains of the contested regions. If Ukraine can bleed Russia and the rebels enough over the summer they can stall the offensive and possibly make some gains.

Added to this, whilst Ukraine is not exactly a bastion of democracy and due process the rebel areas are led by Junta's holding obvious sham elections using rifles and potatoes. Whilst there will be majority-rebel areas in both provinces there will also be pro-Kiev areas and the prospect of partition is more bloodshed within those provinces as undesirable "traitors" are expelled.

In related news - all government-run services in rebel held areas are being withdrawn: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30072483

It's only logical, for as much as it will hurt the common man Kiev can't subsidise rebel rule.

Meanwhile we see once again what a poor Ally the Americans and their Western vassals make - don't trust the yanks they won't lift a finger to help anyone.

[Gilrandir]

So this is what 'shirtfront' means.

Putin is making sure no Russian speaking koalas are oppressed in Australia.

If Ukraine allows secession now the Rebels will push to take the remains of the contested regions.

They will not stop at administrative borders but will move on to "liberate the people of entire Novorossia from the junta". From what I hear the rebel-held territories are being contested between different groups of separatists to get access and control over businesses practised there. Other important sources of income for them are car thefts (with their subseqent transportation to Russia) and scrap metal collecting (again with subsequent delivery to Russia) since a lot of broken military machinery is left to rust in the open. Some of separatists (namely Chechens) are more inventive - they erect checkpoint (even in places which are far away from the frontline) and take tolls from cars for passing through.

[Brenus]

“If Ukraine can bleed Russia and the rebels enough over the summer they can stall the offensive and possibly make some gains.” Looks like from Erick Falkenhayn who believed “to wear down the defences of the French and bleed their army white”. With the success we know. The question is why the Ukrainian would not bleed as well, as the German did in France?

“Russia, as the aggressor, is fighting for gain whilst Ukraine is fighting for it's survival.” The problem is you are still thinking as Russia is interested to take Ukraine when all evidences suggest otherwise, at least for the moment.
Russia is “just” keeping the rebels the nose out of the water, balancing the forces, so material, political support, probably some cash, volunteers, etc. Ukraine can’t win, so NATO can’t come in, as to join NATO, you have to be at peace. You want peace in Ukraine? International treaty guarantying Ukraine will never join NATO.
Remember, you are one who see Russia as an enemy (from the Cold War time) so there are no reasons why Russia couldn’t see NATO as an enemy as well.
And, actually, Russia has more circumstantial evidences for that than you have of warlike NATO actions to be confirmed in its suspicions.

[Rhyfelwyr]

I like how the entire world seems to have completely forgot about the annexation of Crimea.

Every time I hear that last phrase I feel like I've been transported back in time a couple of centuries...

[Kagemusha]

I like how the entire world seems to have completely forgot about the annexation of Crimea.

Every time I hear that last phrase I feel like I've been transported back in time a couple of centuries...

I dont think Crimea has been forgotten. It is just simple fact that there is no will from anyone to do anything about it. Ukraine cant take Crimea back via military means, because they simply do not have means to do so. West could impose more economic sanctions towards Russia, but those sanctions would start to hamper the economy of Europe as well, so it would seem that everyone has just accepted the situation as it is.

[Greyblades]

Meanwhile we see once again what a poor Ally the Americans and their Western vassals make - don't trust the yanks they won't lift a finger to help anyone.

Fairly sure it's less "American doesn't help her allies" and more "America doesnt help some far away country it has no legal obligation to".

[Gilrandir]

Russia is “just” keeping the rebels the nose out of the water, balancing the forces, so material, political support, probably some cash, volunteers, etc.

I like that "probably". Probably weapons, probably tanks, probably ammo, probably fuel. So there is still a fat chance that the Lugandonians have plants working for them that produce all those things, isn't there?

Ukraine can’t win, so NATO can’t come in, as to join NATO, you have to be at peace. You want peace in Ukraine? International treaty guarantying Ukraine will never join NATO.

Once we had an international treaty (culminating in the Budapest memorandum) that guaranteed some things for Ukraine. Remind me how it helped Ukraine.
After that (in 1997) in Ukrainian-Russian treaty - of friendship and cooperation, btw - Russia explicitly guaranteed Ukraine's integrity and sovereignty. Remind me how it helped Ukraine.
It's not been yet three months since Ukraine signed the Minsk protocol. What stipulations of it (except the prisoners' exchange) were fulfilled by Russia and by "probably" assisted by Russia separatists?
Now Ukrainians don't want to be cheated again by Russian promises.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Fairly sure it's less "American doesn't help her allies" and more "America doesnt help some far away country it has no legal obligation to".

America and the UK (and Russia) undertook a commitment 20-odd years ago to maintain the territorial integrity of Ukraine in return for Ukraine giving up it's nuclear weapons.

So, in fact, the US does have some legal obligations here, as does the UK. Further, a Ukraine is a NATO ally it is accurate to say that "the US does not help its allies".

[Greyblades]

The Ukraine is most certainly not a NATO member and as for legal obligations: citation needed.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

“Russia, as the aggressor, is fighting for gain whilst Ukraine is fighting for it's survival.” The problem is you are still thinking as Russia is interested to take Ukraine when all evidences suggest otherwise, at least for the moment.
Russia is “just” keeping the rebels the nose out of the water, balancing the forces, so material, political support, probably some cash, volunteers, etc. Ukraine can’t win, so NATO can’t come in, as to join NATO, you have to be at peace. You want peace in Ukraine? International treaty guarantying Ukraine will never join NATO.
Remember, you are one who see Russia as an enemy (from the Cold War time) so there are no reasons why Russia couldn’t see NATO as an enemy as well.
And, actually, Russia has more circumstantial evidences for that than you have of warlike NATO actions to be confirmed in its suspicions.

I said years ago that Russia, and Puin specifically, was an enemy of the West. I'm hardly happy to be able to say "I told you so" now but "material support, probably some cash, volunteers etc." basically means Russian units operating inside Ukraine (Russian units have have volunteered to operate loaned Russian weapons). You can go through all the contortions you like and it will make no difference to the reality that the backbone of the "rebel" armed forces are Russian and controlled from Russia. Putin will doubtless admit this as soon as he has secured his objectives.

That objective is the rinintegration of Ukraine with Russia and it's division from the rest of Europe.

You forget how this all started - Putin bribed the Ukrainian President not to sign a treaty with the EU. He could have just offered to sign a different treaty AS WELL but he had to make sure Ukraine only had ties to Russia.

It's selfish petty Imperialism at its most absurd.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I like how the entire world seems to have completely forgot about the annexation of Crimea.

Every time I hear that last phrase I feel like I've been transported back in time a couple of centuries...

Back in time? I want territory X has never gone out of style -- despite our benighted attempts to assume we are "past" all such things.

[Kagemusha]

I said years ago that Russia, and Puin specifically, was an enemy of the West. I'm hardly happy to be able to say "I told you so" now but "material support, probably some cash, volunteers etc." basically means Russian units operating inside Ukraine (Russian units have have volunteered to operate loaned Russian weapons). You can go through all the contortions you like and it will make no difference to the reality that the backbone of the "rebel" armed forces are Russian and controlled from Russia. Putin will doubtless admit this as soon as he has secured his objectives.

That objective is the rinintegration of Ukraine with Russia and it's division from the rest of Europe.

You forget how this all started - Putin bribed the Ukrainian President not to sign a treaty with the EU. He could have just offered to sign a different treaty AS WELL but he had to make sure Ukraine only had ties to Russia.

It's selfish petty Imperialism at its most absurd.

Opinions like these are the result why the hard line has won in Russia. What are you going to do with Russia? Ignore their nuclear capacity and start a conventional war, in which Europe and US does not have the muscle to do so in their current capacity.

If Russia wants really for the shit to hit the fan, come the winter and all the natural gas,oil and coal going to Europe will not appear, but will go to China, lets see then what will happen at Europe. You sir are delusional in your portrait of the situation.

You simply dont understand that we have lost this chess game and there is nothing to do about it anymore.

[Kadagar_AV]

Opinions like these are the result why the hard line has won in Russia. What are you going to do with Russia? Ignore their nuclear capacity and start a conventional war, in which Europe and US does not have the muscle to do so in their current capacity.

If Russia wants really for the shit to hit the fan, come the winter and all the natural gas,oil and coal going to Europe will not appear, but will go to China, lets see then what will happen at Europe. You sir are delusional in your portrait of the situation.

You simply dont understand that we have lost this chess game and there is nothing to do about it anymore.

I seriously think Putin should be held among the all-time best strategists...

In little more than a decade he has turned a joke of a Union into a nation that is a sincere BIG dog on the international scene, and he has over and over out-played the "one supreme super power" we are said to have.

Pax Americana my ***.

The US had its quick minutes of fame between 1995 and 2015... 20 years is not bad for an empire, but it's not really that cool either.

Unfortunately, the only thing contributed to the world was never ending wars, a backstep when it comes to secularity as a state idea and a failed economic system.

[Sarmatian]

I seriously think Putin should be held among the all-time best strategists...

Not really sure about that, but if it were a video game, there would have been massive cries to nerf Putin.




It would be nice if we don't let the thread deteriorate like the last one did. It seems all out war is pretty much inevitable now. Being completely cut off from Ukraine and barred from dialogue, there's no other course for the rebels.

European statements tend to go from "moar sanctions" to "let's cut back a little", without clear idea what to do.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Putin will always win the chess game as long as Europe continues to buy natural gas from Russia. Currently, 30% of natural gas Europe uses comes from Russia. I think it is possible to reduce that 30% down if Europe was willing. But energy prices are high in Europe already, so it all depends on whether it is worth it to the EU to sacrifice a few eastern countries in order to keep the energy market status quo.

[HoreTore]

If Russia wants really for the shit to hit the fan, come the winter and all the natural gas,oil and coal going to Europe will not appear, but will go to China, lets see then what will happen at Europe.

Please do!

We need some more gold up here in the north......

[Gilrandir]

If Russia wants really for the shit to hit the fan, come the winter and all the natural gas,oil and coal going to Europe will not appear, but will go to China, lets see then what will happen at Europe. You sir are delusional in your portrait of the situation.

It is delusional to believe Russia can reshape the direction of its current fuel torrents overnight and redirect them eastwards in this very winter. I think it will need about five years (especially gas and oil supply as current facilities are inadequate) for Russia to supplant their Western export with the same amount of Eastern one. And that is given that Russia has money to spend on building pipelines through taiga and what not and Russia's money seems to be tight (especially this winter). And from what I heard China declined to subsidize the construction.

Being completely cut off from Ukraine and barred from dialogue, there's no other course for the rebels.

This was the course rebels themselves chose and shaped. They want to have as little to do with the junta as possible and cleave to Russia.

[Montmorency]

the natural gas,oil and coal going to Europe will not appear, but will go to China

AFAIK the infrastructure to make such a threat good on is not available, though Russia is trying to diversify the customer-base to SE Asia.

But let's say that a US-Azeri alliance deepens and pipelines through the Caspian via Azerbaijan and the Black Sea bring Central Asian oil to Europe, plus development of green energy/natural gas, while Russia focuses exports on Asia to replace Europe - where does that leave the world (in say 20 years)?

It could mean that Russia has greater motivation to attempt to further Finlandize, or outright absorb, the Central Asian states.

Most interestingly, the fates of China and Russia would collocate more strongly, since they would become more mutually-dependent. OTOH, China would probably feel this less than Russia.

In that light, it's possible to see the US strategy here as allowing Russian weakness to develop to its natural conclusion, i.e. the point where Russia overplays its hand and gets smacked down hard by the international community. In other words, a momentous confrontation between Russia and the US over the Ukraine question is against US interests, since the US position can improve whereas by all accounts the Russian position can only worsen.

In the end, yes, I suppose there is always the possibility that Russia will flip out and start WW3 as it loses the capacity to act in the world over the coming decades.