Ukraine Thread

[Gilrandir]

Finally, the west caught Putin lying about absence of his weapons in Donbas:
http://yle.fi/uutiset/fiia_researche...kraine/7803774

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Finally, the west caught Putin lying about absence of his weapons in Donbas:
http://yle.fi/uutiset/fiia_researche...kraine/7803774

The Russians will say Ukraine inserted the clause to cause mischief.

In other news...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31475744

"Donetsk rebel leader Alexander Zakharchenko said earlier on Saturday that he considered the Debaltseve area was not covered by the agreed ceasefire."

Men like this deserve their heads on spikes.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

...Donetsk rebel leader Alexander Zakharchenko said earlier on Saturday that he considered the Debaltseve area was not covered by the agreed ceasefire."

Men like this deserve their heads on spikes.

While I cannot completely disagree with "deserve," I would advocate restraint. Too "old school" for modern sensibilities -- ends up creating sympathy for someone thereof undeserving. Quiet and relatively painless execution followed by private family funeral is a more practicable route. Still ends up with sympathizers screaming "martyrdom!" but probably won't add to their numbers any as a public showing would.

[Gilrandir]

The Russians will say Ukraine inserted the clause to cause mischief.

... and Putin was too sleepy after exhausting night negotiations in Minsk that he failed to detect the trap. Yet it doesn't diminish his greatness:
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/news/politics/66351.html

"Donetsk rebel leader Alexander Zakharchenko said earlier on Saturday that he considered the Debaltseve area was not covered by the agreed ceasefire."

One more proof that it is useless to sign anything with Putin and his puppets. They blame the Ukrainian army in shelling Donetsk to proclaim the Minsk agreements void, but in fact they do it themselves:
http://nv.ua/ukraine/doneck-obstreli...ora-34751.html
Moreover, DNR demanded additional clause(s) to the signed agreement which would stipulate Ukraine's not joining NATO (sorry, links only in Russian). One can never know what new ideas they (read Putin) will come up with. Like this one:
http://sirgis.info/2015/02/16/separatist_clothes/

[GenosseGeneral]

One can never know what new ideas they (read Putin) will come up with. Like this one:
http://sirgis.info/2015/02/16/separatist_clothes/

Well, the Russian military gear supplier SSO/SPOSN is advertising with pictures of Strelkov & gang on its vkontakte account. That company gained its reputation by supplying the 'spetsnaz' units of quite number of agencies.

Apart from that: nothing new in the East, unfortunately. Yet this ceasefire was doomed to fail when Zakharchenko unilaterally excluded Debalzevo, because "it is inside the DNR, thus we are free to shoot there." There is still a minimal chance of someone from Moscow bringing the separatists into line, but since both DNR and Ukraine halted the withdrawal of heavy weaponry (the key agreement in the recent agreement as well as the one from September), fighting is likely to escalate again.
I wonder whether we will see another round of sacntions and/or arms deliveries now. Since I will study as an exchange in Moscow from March 1st on, I am somewhat worried about Russia maybe being cut off SWIFT.

[Gilrandir]

I wonder whether we will see another round of sacntions and/or arms deliveries now. Since I will study as an exchange in Moscow from March 1st on, I am somewhat worried about Russia maybe being cut off SWIFT.

I don't think the West would have guts enough to do that since it will mean (as experts say) a complete collapse of Russia's finacial system within a couple of days. The West is afraid that Putin will retaliate in god knows what way. So the policy of soft sanctional pressure will continue possibly coupled with a decision to supply Ukraine with weapons. But if the West opts for the latter I think the prudent thing would be to do it without any announcement urbi et orbi.
I wish you a smooth journey and uneventful stay in Moscow. Try to keep your head in the propaganda flurry you will experience there.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The Ceasefire is dead, officially: http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...tes-debaltseve

More sanctions have also been issued: http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...s-list-ukraine

We're getting quite close to Putin himself being persona non grata, I don't think that will happen but at this rate he'll be the only official allowed to travel.

I can't see how Obama can resist supplying Ukraine with arms now, even though arms will require American "advisers". This is a nightmare scenario for Obama because he now has two options - be the president who "let the Russians have Ukraine" or be the president who "started the new Vietnam."

[Gilrandir]

The Ceasefire is dead, officially: http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...tes-debaltseve

It was a still born baby the moment it was signed since no party to the agreement liked it. It was supposed to bring a short respite, but evidently that was a vain hope.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

The Ceasefire is dead, officially: http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...tes-debaltseve

More sanctions have also been issued: http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...s-list-ukraine

We're getting quite close to Putin himself being persona non grata, I don't think that will happen but at this rate he'll be the only official allowed to travel.

I can't see how Obama can resist supplying Ukraine with arms now, even though arms will require American "advisers". This is a nightmare scenario for Obama because he now has two options - be the president who "let the Russians have Ukraine" or be the president who "started the new Vietnam."

Weapons will be sent. Advisors will be sent to rear areas with return tickets already booked. Obama will pull any USA personnel rather than let them be there to replicate the ramp up to the Gulf of Tonkin. Mercs and private contractors might be different.