Ukraine Thread

[GenosseGeneral]

Regarding the "polling debate":
Telephone calls are indeed the most common way of conducting polls, although they have a lot of biases and shortcomings, e.g. non-coverage of people not owning a telephone or who are not home when the pollster calls. However, all types of polls have biases and telephone interviews are comparably cheap, accurate and quick (more on the topic: you can certainly find something comparable in your language
Yet I can indeed see a number of reasons why I indeed expect them to work less well in a post-soviet environment:
a) More uneven spread of telephone numbers: whereas most German households have one fixed-line number, most people here have a varying number of mobile numbers. That makes drawing a randomized sample much more difficult.
b) Lower responsiveness: As Gilrandir already said, for cultural reasons people can be less open than in the West, especially those who grew up in the USSR. Although I have so far never met a person who declined talking about politics in person, but then again, I also have never called random people and asked them about their personal opinion. It is indeed notable, that the chunk of people "finding it hard to answer the question" is significantly larger in polls from Russia/Ukraine than in those from the West.


If you are interested in polls from the region, check the Levada Tsentr: http://www.levada.ru/eng/ Widely regarded as the most independent pollster in Russia and they also publish a good deal of their work in English. As a a social scientist, I like their releases actually more than what is published in the average Western mass media, as the data is presented in far more different categories, for example the population size of the respondent's place of residence. It is quite interesting to see how huge differences between Moscow/Petersburg and small towns are. Putin, for instance, is actually MORE popular with the urban than with the village population.
EDIT: More on their methodology: http://www.levada.ru/eng/omnibus-survey
It gives you an idea of how difficult the conduction of an accurate survey is.

“What should be done with this situation? What is a good end result here?”
I don’t know.
What do we have? A potential war in a country which has a nuclear plant named Chernobyl and I think 3 more (Zaporijia, Rovno and Khmelnitski ) for a total of 15 reactors like it that needs fuel and spare parts for maintenance from…Moscow.
I will not answer the “should” part, what is done is done, and Ukraine will have to deal to the situation as Serbia has to deal with the loss of Kosovo. There is no justice, only me, said Death in one of Prachett’s book.
Arming Ukraine is a bad idea, as Russia will be able to match every piece of equipment. If necessary, Russia will provide grounds troops, as Russia sees Ukraine as vital for her security. USA and EU will not be able to mobilise on the same feeling, so no troops will be sent.
After the disastrous dealing of the situation by EU/US and Ukrainian Putchist then Legitimate Government of Ukraine of the crisis, it, perhaps, was still place of compromise and to keep Ukrainian territory intact. I still don’t understand how the CIA analysts (but not only) got it so wrong, and underestimated (if not misestimate) Russian feelings and intentions.
Long time ago, I went in Russia (during Chechnya first war) to deliver medical equipment to Doctors without Borders working in the region. All conversations with the translators, and contact with the locals were about the humiliation of Russia by the West under the Drunken Bear Boris Eltsin. I was told that there were so many Russian prostitutes in Istanbul that all of them were called Natacha. True or not, it was what I was told.
They were almost all thirsty for dignity and respect.
Putin success is due for a large part to the return of Russia to a level of self-dignity.
If this is not understood and rectify, all efforts will be in vain.
Thanks to Gilrandir, I started to watch RT recently, and not every day, to be frank. I don’t know if what is said in English is what is said in Russian, but they show the comments made by Westerner Politicians, comparing RT and IS.
So, in term of what can be done, only de-escalation is an option. Ukraine has now no other solution than federalisation, negotiation and talk. Confidence Building Programmes, financed by the European Agency for Reconstruction, rebuilding an economy, a real democracy, creation of jobs, repair of infrastructures: One of the greatest French Colonial General said one to the Foreign Legion after the conquest (I think Morocco) to build one market, one school and to provide medical assistance in each conquered village: Same principal, different wording, bringing populations together, stopping the aggressive stance and coming back to civil life. As Gilrandir often said, they were all neighbours (even if it doesn’t always make it easier).
George Clemenceau, the man who won the 1st World War, said one: Better a bad peace than a good war. It is not always true, but I think in this case it is.

I have to admit, that I rarely agree with your posts in this topic, but this one is definitely an exception to the rule. Especially the bit about Russians longing for respect. One thing I have noticed in my first 2 weeks here, is that people have a certain obsession with the US as a rival. The USSR used to be on par with the US and Russians see the Yeltsin era as not more than an exception from the
rule. The Russian version of 'Murica is bringing freedom, F*CK YEAH
Expect more of that over the next days, as Crimea returning day seems to have become a national holiday. Oh and have the Putin quotes from the "documentary" made by Pervyy Kanal already made it into the Western press? THERE WERE GRU SPETSNAZ IN CRIMEA! *Badum tsss*

I also agree with the part about the complete failure of US/EU officials. I don't know what frightens me more: the idea of them being so ruthless, that they didn't care or so clueless, that they didn't know better.