Ukraine Thread

[GenosseGeneral]

Well, that makes actually sense. There was an episode a couple of months ago, when someone leaked that Putin allegedly in a closed meeting with business leaders told an anecdote in which Poroshenko had offered him the Donbass during the Minsk talks. Whether this contained any truth or not, it underlined the fact that no one really wants the Donbass anymore. That area's infrastructure is heavily damaged: bridges have been blown up, water and gas pipelines have been hit by artillery shells, tracked vehicles have ravaged roads. The most devastating example is probably Donetsk airport: rebuilt for Euro 2012, it not more than a heap of rubble after the fighting. Law enforcement is more or less defunct, as thugs on both sides do not really care about stuff like "property rights" and I highly doubt that Donetsk's militsiya has received any pay during the last year. On top of that, living space has been either destroyed or damaged (windows destroyed by shells' shockwaves) and businesses have effectively shut down. So whoever gets the Donbass ends up with a region which needs billions of USD to get infrastructure running, a population of 2-3 million completely dependent on social aid (currently more or less supplied by Russia), and, if Kiev regains control, is openly hostile to the central government.
That is a burden Ukraine alone cannot shoulder, especially not in light of the economic meltdown and the high likelyhood of a government default. Nevertheless, Western funding for reconstruction of the Donbass as part of a peace agreement would stabilize the region more than arms deliveries, military excercises and training for Kiev's forces.

[Husar]

Or China could take the Donbass. Might make them geographically eligible to join the EU.

A quote that sounds clever until you stop to think about geopolitical realities and how religion is a factor.

And here I thought this Stalin guy sounds as reasonable as Hitler, but thank you for opening my eyes.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

It's quoted because it's seen as a clever comment.

But you knew that.

[Husar]

It's quote because it's seen as a clever comment.

"I'm sure that Nero didn't set fire to Rome. It was the Christian-Bolsheviks who did that, just as the Commune set fire to Paris in 1871 and the Communists set fire to the Reichstag in 1932." - Adolf Hitler
https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Adolf_Hitler

[Brenus]

"Or China could take the Donbass. Might make them geographically eligible to join the EU." First join the European Song Contest: Apparently to be European(in geographical sense) is not a requirement. In an other hand not to be in part of the North Atlantic coast line is not required to be part of NATO either, so why not?

[Gilrandir]

I highly doubt that Donetsk's militsiya has received any pay during the last year.

Which militsiya do you mean? If the separatists' - it is true. But I doubt that the Ukrainian police (which is still called "militsiya") in parts of Donbas controlled by Kyiv is not paid any salaries.

Nevertheless, Western funding for reconstruction of the Donbass as part of a peace agreement would stabilize the region more than arms deliveries, military excercises and training for Kiev's forces.

If any financial infusions into the region's infrastructure and economy are made on behalf of the West, they are likely to be accepted (if they are) with hostility and curses. But since Minsk agreement is not observed, no infusions loom for Donbas (unless those from Russia which are just enough to keep the people afloat).


But you speak of economic and finacial considerations which are a care of the government. The poll rather reflects the popular attitude to the severed parts of Donbas. This attitude is more or less epitomized by the statement: "If they want so much to live apart, well, let them do it, and we'll see what will happen to them".

[GenosseGeneral]

Which militsiya do you mean? If the separatists' - it is true. But I doubt that the Ukrainian police (which is still called "militsiya") in parts of Donbas controlled by Kyiv is not paid any salaries.



If any financial infusions into the region's infrastructure and economy are made on behalf of the West, they are likely to be accepted (if they are) with hostility and curses. But since Minsk agreement is not observed, no infusions loom for Donbas (unless those from Russia which are just enough to keep the people afloat).


But you speak of economic and finacial considerations which are a care of the government. The poll rather reflects the popular attitude to the severed parts of Donbas. This attitude is more or less epitomized by the statement: "If they want so much to live apart, well, let them do it, and we'll see what will happen to them".

Yeah, I had in mind the police force. Have they now officially renamed it? I read about plans for a new national police, but I was not sure how far those plans are advanced. I guess I am gonna see those guys then next week then, as I will go back to Germany via Kharkov and Kiev.

Well, the average Ukrainian might not calculate how many billions rebuilding the Donbass' infrastructure costs, but he can easily calculate how much the war costs, for him/her personally. As you pointed already out, not every young man from Kiev, Odessa or Lvov is keen to die for Donetsk. And at least some of Donetsk's inhabitants showed, that they are also fed up with the fighting: http://tvrain.ru/teleshow/here_and_n..._trebu-389196/
(Remarkable sentence: we want peace, we want a place at the negotiation table)

But of course any government making a decision to abandon the Donbass would face a Ukrainian version of the "stab-in-the-back myth" from the side of nationalist forces. And some of those nationalist forces are quite well-equipped and were quite hesitant to subordinate under formal command from Kiev.
Also, it is notable that the its industry played a key role for Ukraine's export - quite valuable for a country with a foreign trade deficit.

This sounds like an interesting reportage into the economic consequences the conflict has for the Donbass. Unfortunately, the full version is subscriber-only :/
https://slon.ru/special/donbass-economics

[Gilrandir]

Have they now officially renamed it? I read about plans for a new national police, but I was not sure how far those plans are advanced. I guess I am gonna see those guys then next week then, as I will go back to Germany via Kharkov and Kiev.

Both yes and no. The reform that is under way now is not about renaming the old bodies. The new police is to replace the old GAI, district poice officers and patrolmen and will embrace the duties of those. The reform is being implemented by the Georgean who did it in her own country. The first group of the new policemen finished their training about a week ago and are now being introduced to their duties in large cities (Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkiv and Lviv, IIRC). So I'm not sure they will have assumed thier duties soon enough for you to see them at large.
The rest of the old militsiya (for example, criminal police) is still there. I guess if the first reform turns out a success, they will move on to the other branches of the law enforcement system.

As you pointed already out, not every young man from Kiev, Odessa or Lvov is keen to die for Donetsk.

This is because they don't feel that people in Donetsk want to be a part of Ukraine.

And at least some of Donetsk's inhabitants showed, that they are also fed up with the fighting:
(Remarkable sentence: we want peace, we want a place at the negotiation table)

Let's not take too much stock in this event. First of all, only about half a thousand people rallied there. Second of all, they were only/mostly the inhabitants of the districts that suffer most from fighting. Third of all, they differed as to the way the war should be stopped and some of them urged Zakharchenko to start an offensive and chase the Ukrainian army away far from the city.
But even if there are people in Donbas who want a lasting peace, they have no chance to change anything - the region is rampant with armed people who will not brook any meddling. And Zakharchenko is not a person to do anything on his own since the decision-making center is the Kremlin.

But of course any government making a decision to abandon the Donbass would face a Ukrainian version of the "stab-in-the-back myth" from the side of nationalist forces. And some of those nationalist forces are quite well-equipped and were quite hesitant to subordinate under formal command from Kiev.

I'm not a great fan of Poroshenko and didn't vote for him a year ago, but I can't help sympathizing with his current plight. I would never like to be in his shoes. Making this reservation, I would like to say that he chose the best way he could in this situation. He claims that Donbas is and will always be an integral part of Ukraine. But seeing that immediate return of it will overtax the feeble Ukrainian economic and financial systems he insists on Minsk agreement to be implemented, namely on withrawal of the Russians from Donbas and Ukraine regaining control of the border which may be followed by local elections. He knows that Putin will never agree to it, so he is quite secure: on the one hand he never relinquishes Donbas, on the other hand he puts the burden of Donbas supplying and financing on Russia (or local separatists themselves). The situation is total stalemate and will take a different course when something changes inside Russian powers-that-be.

Also, it is notable that the its industry played a key role for Ukraine's export - quite valuable for a country with a foreign trade deficit.

Seeing you linking to articles in Russian I would venture to link this one on the nature and structure of Donbas industry.
http://nv.ua/opinion/Butko/chto-dela...ssa-53395.html
If there are any difficulties, I can render the gist of it.

[Brenus]

If even the US start to see it now!!!
http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2015.../hous-j17.html
because this one is buyer, other links...

http://www.embassynews.ca/news/2015/...-ukraine/47251

https://consortiumnews.com/2015/06/1...le-in-ukraine/

Don't worry any way, it never stop the US to work with Nazi...

[GenosseGeneral]

It's good to see the Georgians reforming the police. You can say about Saakashvili what you want to (and there is a lot of bad stuff to say), but the Georgian police reforms under Saakashvili were the most successful fight against corruption the CIS has seen. It's nevertheless a hard fight, as fighting a corrupt executive requires an independent and clean judiciary, which Ukraine is also lacking.
This article and those below sum up the steps planned and taken so far: http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1432213622

As to that article on the Donbass: The author has a point in saying that its industry structure is aged. Any restructuring of old heavy industry areas is difficult, look at the US' rust belt, the German Ruhr area or Britain's former industrial centers. The suggestion to turn it into an agricultural region does not make ANY sense AT ALL. First of all, Ukraine has already a huge agricultural sector. In fact, the majority of her central and Western Oblast' are considered to be agricultural. And those are Ukraine's poorest regions for a reason... plus, the soil of a region used by Soviet heavy industry for decades is very likely full of stuff you don't really want on your plate.

[Gilrandir]

If even the US start to see it now!!!
https://consortiumnews.com/2015/06/1...le-in-ukraine/

What I like about Brenus is that he never links any sources which publish lies and propaganda. The one above included. The initial passage leaves no doubt about both (lies and propaganda):

The U.S. House of Representatives has admitted an ugly truth that the U.S. mainstream media has tried to hide from the American people – that the post-coup regime in Ukraine has relied heavily on Nazi storm troopers to carry out its bloody war against ethnic Russians, reports Robert Parry.

The very form of the phrase reeks of propaganda and the statement of the "war against ethnic Russians" is a lie - ethnic Russians are there on both sides of fighting, but the majority of Mariupol (as well as whole Donbas) population are ethnic Ukrainians. The "leaders" of both DPR and LPR (Zakharchenko and Plotnytsky) are ethnic Ukrainians. As I have said, this war lacks all the prerequisites neccessary to qualify it as ethnic, linguistic or confessional. I see that the author of the article has a grudge against "the mainstream American media", so his ire is aimed not so at nazis, but at NYT.

And as I have also said, nazis are on both sides of fighting. Be careful, the following article may cause a cognitive dissonance - Right Sector captures nazis: https://belsat.eu/en/articles/ukrain...ary-shyrokyne/

Brenus, Brenus .... I can't believe you to do what you so vehemently seem to detest - linking the articles the quality of which might have been the subject matter of your PhD thesis.

And where is Sarmatian with his righteous anger? He should have been the first to detect and swoop at a forum-spoiler. Or is a common view on things a justification for condoning sins?
Franklin D. Roosevelt (supposedly): "Somoza may be a son of a bitch, but he's our son of a bitch".

As to that article on the Donbass: The author has a point in saying that its industry structure is aged. Any restructuring of old heavy industry areas is difficult, look at the US' rust belt, the German Ruhr area or Britain's former industrial centers. The suggestion to turn it into an agricultural region does not make ANY sense AT ALL. First of all, Ukraine has already a huge agricultural sector. In fact, the majority of her central and Western Oblast' are considered to be agricultural. And those are Ukraine's poorest regions for a reason... plus, the soil of a region used by Soviet heavy industry for decades is very likely full of stuff you don't really want on your plate.

I am not sure argiculture will work well with Donbas, chemical industry seems a better option since there are (or were) some working facilities there, thus the qualified employees also. As for the old industries, I think they are as good as dead. Many enterprises are ruined and as for those that are not - Ukraine is unlikely to face East in the foreseeable future and the only market for such industries (given the low quality of the products) is there. That said, Donbas under current conditions has become a huge pain in the neck for Ukraine. So the real return of it will bring more harm than benefit to Ukraine.

By the way, how was your stay in Russia?