ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

[Sarmatian]

We'll see. But to my mind the problem is not to defeat ISIS in Syria military-wise, but to hold the victory. And that seems more problematic when the neighboring countries offer ISIS a chance to withdraw and come back with a vengeance.

The only neighbouring country that could do that is Turkey, and it's a stretch.

Holding the victory wouldn't be a problem as ISIS is the only significant force in the area in opposition to Assad. Kurds are a potential problem but that's a different kind of problem.

[Tuuvi]

The only neighbouring country that could do that is Turkey, and it's a stretch.

Holding the victory wouldn't be a problem as ISIS is the only significant force in the area in opposition to Assad. Kurds are a potential problem but that's a different kind of problem.

I don't think this is true, the rebels are extremely fractured and don't hold as much territory as ISIS does but they are still a major force. According Wikipedia the FSA has between 40-50 thousand fighters, the Islamic Front has between 40-70 thousand, and there are several other smaller rebel factions. ISIS has between 31,500 to 100 thousand fighters. And according this map, the amount of ISIS held territory that is actually populated appears to be roughly equal to the amount of rebel held territory.

[rvg]

...the amount of ISIS held territory that is actually populated appears to be roughly equal to the amount of rebel held territory.

Yeah, they're pretty good at depopulating controlled territory.

[AE Bravo]

Thought this was interesting: https://www.judicialwatch.org/wp-con...-version11.pdf

Skip the beginning the good stuff is omitted. Page 5 - C is where it's at. Should be common knowledge now, just found it surprising myself.

[Sarmatian]

I don't think this is true, the rebels are extremely fractured and don't hold as much territory as ISIS does but they are still a major force. According Wikipedia the FSA has between 40-50 thousand fighters, the Islamic Front has between 40-70 thousand, and there are several other smaller rebel factions. ISIS has between 31,500 to 100 thousand fighters. And according this map, the amount of ISIS held territory that is actually populated appears to be roughly equal to the amount of rebel held territory.

1) You need to be aware how many population centers and strategic areas they are actually in control of.
2) Those are all various rebel groups put together. There are dozens of them and they very often aren't friendly to each other.

[Husar]

Crandar posted an interview in the Backroom video thread a couple weeks ago where the journalist who was actually there says the FSA seems to be a non-factor that is overrated in the West and usually just runs away, so I'm not sure why some people are still somewhat fixated on them. I assume most of the moderate intelligent Syrians are on their way to refugee camps because they don't have a death wish to get involved in this mess. And if they can't decide for a side to support, why should I? I know much less about their country and the people than they do.

If Pegida were to start a civil war against the salafists and the biker gangs and catholic militias got involved while the army split up into supporting Merkel for Chancellor for life and a neo-nazi splinter army, plus a Gerhard Schröder in charge of Cossack mercenaries, I would also rather leave than join any of them even if there were another small faction with similar values to mine.

Which leads me to believe that there still isn't really any good option. The Kurds will be eradicated by Erdogan and may not be so nice after all.
Any rebel group that may have somewhat supportable values is probably too small to win this without sending them the US Marines as backup and the only really strong factions seem to be the proper Syrian army, who now got strong Russian backup and ISIS who are an army of supermen where each of their fighters can make up for ten fighters of any of the other factions (maybe they DO have god's blessing after all?).

There are also allegations (by Kurdish people I guess) that Erdogan is the one selling ISIS' oil for them, so maybe NATO is actually propping up ISIS to take control of the region.
This could also be supported by the fact that the US-led bombing campaign has not managed to stop ISIS yet and there seem to have been no terror attacks on the Muslim countries that are partaking in it. Is ISIS an inside job? How can their fighters be so strong? Am I Glenn Beck or am I just asking the right questions? You may find out in my next post if I decide to write one.

[AE Bravo]

So you didn't know Turkey coordinated with ISIS on more than one occasion? Like when they went to recover that Ottoman tomb in IS territory?

Here, take this L sir.

[Husar]

So you didn't know Turkey coordinated with ISIS on more than one occasion? Like when they went to recover that Ottoman tomb in IS territory?

Here, take this L sir.

I think whether that was actual cooperation or mutual "acceptance" since ISIS do not want to fight the Turkish military (yet) is not entirely established. But that Erdogan was treating ISIS with a lot of restraint and was basically just watching them was quite obvious. I haven't seen a reliable report of actual cooperation so far.

[Tuuvi]

1) You need to be aware how many population centers and strategic areas they are actually in control of.
2) Those are all various rebel groups put together. There are dozens of them and they very often aren't friendly to each other.

I know that, that's why I said the rebels are "extremely fractured" and why I mentioned that there are several other smaller rebel factions. The rebels hold territory just outside of Aleppo and Damascus, they are still a threat to the regime and they are not insignificant. Why do you think the Russian airstrikes have been focusing more on the rebels than on ISIS?

[Tuuvi]

http://po.combatfootagearchive.com/Visit%20Anbar.mp4

[Sarmatian]

Why do you think the Russian airstrikes have been focusing more on the rebels than on ISIS?

It is a big question if the airstrikes have been focusing more on rebels other than extremists.

[Brenus]

I know that, that's why I said the rebels are "extremely fractured" and why I mentioned that there are several other smaller rebel factions. The rebels hold territory just outside of Aleppo and Damascus, they are still a threat to the regime and they are not insignificant. Why do you think the Russian airstrikes have been focusing more on the rebels than on ISIS?

Well. perhaps the answer is why the USA & EU were keener to go for regime change than to fight ISIL. Geopolitic.

I think USA & EU think ISIL not real danger... Too extremist, it will collapse by itself, and still in need of Western Technology/medicament/goods, so it will tamed itself to become an "Saudi Arabia", potentially. Not a place to leave yourself, but you can trade with. So, they focused on letting ISIL to grab as much as lands and population to enslave as possible, then wait for the change. But Assad was on the way, so, they aimed at him. A little bit of bombing ISIL (not too much), a bit a money and weapons to "moderate" opposition they knew will end in ISIL hands, looking the other way when Crucifixion, burning people alive and women sold to slavery, campaigning against destruction of all temples, well, routine.
Then Putin racked the game. Bombing and helping Syrian Army, not good. Even worst, look that he got result.
And just after the public admission that there is in fact no more moderate opposition, and 1,000,000 refugees who had enough to wait to be sold to ISIL by USA & EU lack of real action (as it was not the plan anyway), walking into Europe.
So whom Putin is bombing?

[Viking]

the public admission that there is in fact no more moderate opposition

Huh?

So whom Putin is bombing?

The fact that IS has been gaining rather than loosing ground in Syria after Russia started bombing should provide some clues.

[Brenus]

"The fact that IS has been gaining rather than loosing ground in Syria" Fact?

"Huh?" Can't find the approximately the 25 soldiers left trained by US money... So more in now cut, and weapons parachuted, don't know really where, but it might be in the rightist hands.

[Husar]

Well, that settles it, with backing from Erdogan and Putin, ISIS is there to stay.