Terror Attack: 130 Dead in Paris

[Rhyfelwyr]

This is as close to "mission accomplished" since PVC [sorry, I keep forgetting your new name]. Look, if you want to reclaim the vast majority of ISIS territory, you will need a large force. The West cannot do it because it simply fuels more ISIS fighters and disorder. To be frank, even after Paris, the US does not have the will to tackle Iraq again for a long time. Russia and Iran cannot do it because the West wouldn't accept such a presence in the region. The only solution to ISIS that is permanent is for the Arab countries to get their hands dirty. And they won't.

I have not read any convincing argument in this thread that gives a long term solution for deescalating and deradicalizing the region. Hence why the person that makes the most sense is Monty and his assertion that the only way it will get better is for the area to turn into even more of a bloodbath.

I'm coming round to a boots on the ground solution. In Iraq, Western forces always had the toughest time in the big cities like Baghdad and Basra, neither of which are controlled by IS. Raqqa and Mosul are the only big urban areas they control (afaik) and would be much more manageable. Only about 20% of Iraq's population is Sunni and corresponds largely with the IS-controlled areas, and I remember reading there's about 8-10 million people in the IS across Iraq and Syria, compared to about 40m in Iraq or 18m in Syria.

Also, the Western public had no appetite for taking down Saddam, but that appetite is there for taking down IS. Plus even the Sunnis are less happy with IS than they were with Saddam.

[Crandar]

I'm coming round to a boots on the ground solution. In Iraq, Western forces always had the toughest time in the big cities like Baghdad and Basra, neither of which are controlled by IS. Raqqa and Mosul are the only big urban areas they control (afaik) and would be much more manageable. Only about 20% of Iraq's population is Sunni and corresponds largely with the IS-controlled areas, and I remember reading there's about 8-10 million people in the IS across Iraq and Syria, compared to about 40m in Iraq or 18m in Syria.

Also, the Western public had no appetite for taking down Saddam, but that appetite is there for taking down IS. Plus even the Sunnis are less happy with IS than they were with Saddam.

Well, they also control Ramadi and Falloujah. Also, I disagree with Basra and Baghdad being the most difficult to control Iraqi cities. Basra is clearly located in a Shia majority region and the only opposition were Shia partisans, like the Sadr Army.
Baghdad was the site of really lethal attacks, but it was mostly bombing against the Shias.

On the Contrary, Ramadi, the capital of Anbar is full of sunni extremists, while the US army paid a really big price to manage to control Falloujah, which was the first to be captured by ISIL.

[Brenus]

From a friend in Facebook:

In case you don't know what's happening in the middle east. ��

President Assad ( who is bad ) is a nasty guy who got so nasty his people rebelled and the Rebels ( who are good ) started winning ( Hurrah!).
But then some of the rebels turned a bit nasty and are now called Islamic State ( who are definitely bad!) and some continued to support democracy ( who are still good.)

So the Americans ( who are good ) started bombing Islamic State ( who are bad ) and giving arms to the Syrian Rebels ( who are good ) so they could fight Assad ( who is still bad ) which was good.
By the way, there is a breakaway state in the north run by the Kurds who want to fight IS ( which is a good thing ) but the Turkish authorities think they are bad, so we have to say they are bad whilst secretly thinking they're good and giving them guns to fight IS (which is good) but that is another matter.

Getting back to Syria.
So President Putin ( who is bad, cos he invaded Crimea and the Ukraine and killed lots of folks including that nice Russian man in London with polonium poisoned sushi ) has decided to back Assad ( who is still bad ) by attacking IS ( who are also bad ) which is sort of a good thing?

But Putin ( still bad ) thinks the Syrian Rebels ( who are good ) are also bad, and so he bombs them too, much to the annoyance of the Americans ( who are good ) who are busy backing and arming the rebels ( who are also good).

Now Iran ( who used to be bad, but now they have agreed not to build any nuclear weapons and bomb Israel are now good ) are going to provide ground troops to support Assad ( still bad ) as are the Russians ( bad ) who now have ground troops and aircraft in Syria.

So a Coalition of Assad ( still bad ) Putin ( extra bad ) and the Iranians ( good, but in a bad sort of way ) are going to attack IS ( who are bad ) which is a good thing, but also the Syrian Rebels ( who are good ) which is bad.

Now the British ( obviously good, except that nice Mr Corbyn in the corduroy jacket, who is probably bad ) and the Americans ( also good ) cannot attack Assad ( still bad ) for fear of upsetting Putin ( bad ) and Iran ( good / bad) and now they have to accept that Assad might not be that bad after all compared to IS ( who are super bad).

So Assad ( bad ) is now probably good, being better than IS ( but let’s face it, drinking your own wee is better than IS so no real choice there ) and since Putin and Iran are also fighting IS that may now make them Good. America ( still Good ) will find it hard to arm a group of rebels being attacked by the Russians for fear of upsetting Mr Putin ( now good ) and that nice mad Ayatollah in Iran ( also Good ) and so they may be forced to say that the Rebels are now Bad, or at the very least abandon them to their fate. This will lead most of them to flee to Turkey and on to Europe or join IS ( still the only constantly bad group).

To Sunni Muslims, an attack by Shia Muslims ( Assad and Iran ) backed by Russians will be seen as something of a Holy War, and the ranks of IS will now be seen by the Sunnis as the only Jihadis fighting in the Holy War and hence many Muslims will now see IS as Good ( Doh!.)

Sunni Muslims will also see the lack of action by Britain and America in support of their Sunni rebel brothers as something of a betrayal ( mmm, might have a point.) and hence we will be seen as Bad.

So now we have America ( now bad ) and Britain ( also bad ) providing limited support to Sunni Rebels ( bad ) many of whom are looking to IS ( Good / bad ) for support against Assad ( now good ) who, along with Iran ( also Good) and Putin ( also, now, unbelievably, Good ) are attempting to retake the country Assad used to run before all this started?

So, now you fully understand everything, all your questions are answered!!!!

[Husar]

So, now you fully understand everything, all your questions are answered!!!!

Welcome to (Middle East) politics!

What he forgot to mention was that the NWO (good) has planned all of this.

[Brenus]

Oh, yeah, he did forget a lot of things, i.e. Saudis (good) having links with IS (bad) bombing Yemen insurgents (bad) allied with Iran (new good). Turkey (good) sells oil from IS (bad) to Europe (good) and US (good) market.
France (good) is now going to Russia (bad becoming good) to put boots on the grounds (if not yet done) and French (good) fleet is now co-operating with Russian (bad becoming good). This of course cannot be achieved with Assad (lesser bad becoming relatively good) agreement...
Hezbollah (the one that blew-up Marines and French Paratroopers and executed hostages in Lebanon) is becoming good, following Iran. Well, history is marching...

[a completely inoffensive name]

Also, the Western public had no appetite for taking down Saddam,

That's absolutely false, 100%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Popula...vasion_of_Iraq

[Husar]

That's absolutely false, 100%.

Even I thought at the time that taking out Saddam was not a bad idea.
Of course I also wasn't as old and wise yet as I am now.

[Papewaio]

Of course I also wasn't as old and wise yet as I am now.

You are lucky I just got older.

[Fragony]

Might become a busy day if anominous's is right

Just for caution http://www.ibtimes.com/anonymous-say...sunday-2194926

[Brenus]

"You are talking about single cases of high born men reaching high rank in the military" I missed this one during my week of the org. The General Dumas was slave, as he was the child of a slave and the father being the owner of his mother. When the father having no son with the regular wife, he decided to take his son out of slavery (there were soooo nice this slavers, weren't they!)... High born indeed...

[Fragony]

Kinda funny, the alledged brain of the attacks was apparently a frequent guest at gay-bars. Could be nonsense of course.

[Ice]

Even I thought at the time that taking out Saddam was not a bad idea.
Of course I also wasn't as old and wise yet as I am now.

A bit of sarcasm mixed with reality... I echo this.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Turkey Shoots down Russian plane: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-34907983

Possibly with F-16's.

[Fragony]

Turkey Shoots down Russian plane: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-34907983

Possibly with F-16's.

And probably not in Turkish airspace, bit of a problem then if so

edit, comfirmed that two Turkish F16 shot it down, and that they knew it was a Russian plane. Oh my. Russian pilot is ok by the way before you ask.

extra edit, one pilot certainly isn't ok

[Viking]

Steven Pinker's opinion on how attacks like this one fit with the supposed general decline in violence:

Certain categories of violence could continue to see statistical declines, Pinker said, including homicide, domestic violence, and rape. But others, notably the use of “cheap, low-depth, high-publicity violence such as terrorism and rampage shootings,” may hold to current levels far into the future.

Reflecting on overall historical trends, Pinker said, “Violence reduction might be like other types of technological progress — that is, not linear and not exorable, but highly likely over the long run.”

http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/stor...-yes-actually/

[Rhyfelwyr]

That's absolutely false, 100%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Popula...vasion_of_Iraq

Fair enough, I guess I was just thinking of the protests over here.