The Inquisition [Concluded]

[Myrddraal]

Just to stress the point a little more - let's suppose Monty is innocent, and he will from now on be very carefully keeping his scan targets to himself, and submitting them 5 minutes before the night deadline.

The mafia will surely kill him tonight. An accurate scanner is far to risky for the Mafia to keep around in the late game.

Actually, this should have happened last night... but it didn't.

[Golden1Knight]

I'm totally confused.

Unvote; Vote: Sooh.

She voted against Myrddraal without explaining exactly why, as if merely trying to save herself. And since she was appointed as guilty by the alleged scan, maybe we should lynch her anyway, for safety.

[Golden1Knight]

Double post, sorry.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Just to stress the point a little more - let's suppose Monty is innocent, and he will from now on be very carefully keeping his scan targets to himself, and submitting them 5 minutes before the night deadline.

The mafia will surely kill him tonight. An accurate scanner is far to risky for the Mafia to keep around in the late game.

Actually, this should have happened last night... but it didn't.

Under my hypothesis, Sooh knew in advance that Monty was going to be protected (because I had a large group of five on it, auto's mess-up of the orders nonwithstanding) and decided to go for a safer target.

[Myrddraal]

Edit: accidental duplicate post

[Myrddraal]

Under my hypothesis, Sooh knew in advance that Monty was going to be protected (because I had a large group of five on it, auto's mess-up of the orders nonwithstanding) and decided to go for a safer target.

Fair point. The Mafia have shown they are able to overcome protection groups, but I suppose in the alternative hypothesis Edse would have been the second Mafioso, and perhaps that would mean they couldn't overcome protection groups any more.

But I really struggle to believe that Edse was Mafia given his presence in the Visor write-up. Monty himself claims that his Edse result was tampered with. In that case, I guess that those that attacked Visor are still alive, but actively chose that only one of them should show up that night to feed the theory of Edse's guilt.

[GeneralHankerchief]

But I really struggle to believe that Edse was Mafia given his presence in the Visor write-up. Monty himself claims that his Edse result was tampered with.

This seems to be a critical point in your argument against Monty, but I admit that I don't really follow. Could you explain in detail what you mean by this?

[Myrddraal]

In the write-up of the attempted protection of Visor, three groups were present. At first, they were reported as a group of 3, a group of 4 and a group of 2.

The group of two was me and Ituralde. The group of four was your group GH, with khaan initially assuming I was part of that group as well (I was cc'd on the orders) but correcting himself after I pointed out that the numbers didn't seem right. The last group (of three) was an Armouz group of jht, Landlubber and edse. This was claimed in thread by edse.

It's after edse posted this information that Monty announced that his scan must have been spoofed. Actually, both mine and Monty's arguments start with this point - his scan did not match the line-up of the protection. His argument is that obviously I somehow spoofed his results, forging not only the alignment but the history of night-actions. I contend that he's making it up as he goes along.

I highly doubt that Mafioso can appear twice in a write-up, once in the protection group and once as the killer. It directly contradicts Monty's claim that edse was killing Visor. I especially doubt it after khaan went to the trouble of correcting his numbers.

[johnhughthom]

My gut says Vote: Myrddraal

[Zack]

I highly doubt that Mafioso can appear twice in a write-up, once in the protection group and once as the killer.

Why? There's precedent.

[Zack]

I find it kinda weird how gung-ho you are about beating that drum (about people appearing in the writeups). You just played in Pirate Ship where keeping track of that turned out to be mostly a distraction.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Alright, so operating under the assumption that there were three original scum, the Visorslash attack happened when there were two of them left (since dcmort's guilt appears not to be in question). They both appear in the writeup - silver mask and pearl mask.

The (revised) protection groups that night were 3-3-2. We know that they would have failed no matter what because some game mechanic caused all protection on Visor that night to be nullified. We're not sure if this was an innate ability or a mafia weapon, but my guess is the latter. Sooh and edse were both allegedly in on the protections - Sooh CC'd her orders to me and edse claimed so in the thread and this was never called into question.

So, at the moment, unless the mafia can be two people at once, the numbers do not appear to match up.

Monty?

[Myrddraal]

A distraction certainly, but not actually directly wrong. If there's precedent, I don't know about it. Note that if you believe that this is likely to be the case, then both mine and Monty's arguments are wrong, a side-show that the mafia are laughing at. In that case, you shouldn't be voting for me.

But really, my argument is not that I am certain (although I am, of course, certain of my own innocence). My argument is about what is most likely.

The bottom line, which is the more likely?
a) The mafia can duplicate themselves in write-ups, and both Monty and I are at each other's throats for no good reason.
b) I, somehow, knew who Monty was going to scan (even though, as far as I know, the only person he told was ATPG). I spoofed both the alignment and the past activity of his targets. When spoofing dc's scan, I correctly guessed that dc would be inactive that night.
c) Monty got caught out in a lie.

My adamance is clearly turning people's guts against me (what an unpleasant metaphor) but from my perspective I'm really struggling to see how Monty's argument is believable.

[GeneralHankerchief]

I find it kinda weird how gung-ho you are about beating that drum (about people appearing in the writeups). You just played in Pirate Ship where keeping track of that turned out to be mostly a distraction.

It's a fine distinction. I included people as many times as the night actions called for, but never had people double up in one scene (an example of this was the night Curio died - Csargo was both protecting Curio and being recruited by the mafia, but they took place in different sections of the writeup). The Visor attack was clearly a single scene.

[Sooh]

I'm totally confused.

Unvote; Vote: Sooh.

She voted against Myrddraal without explaining exactly why, as if merely trying to save herself. And since she was appointed as guilty by the alleged scan, maybe we should lynch her anyway, for safety.

Did you miss the part where I explained? Because I did. One of the people who knew Monty's targets might be mafia, and from what I've been able to find out those people would be Myrdraal and GH. I picked one.

[Myrddraal]

Sooh, you agree with my points, but your vote is on me. What do you think of likelihood of the three options (a, b, c) I posted above?

[seireikhaan]

Gathered once more in the courtyard, the royalty and nobility were greeted by such a stunningly pleasant day of weather that they could not help but gaze in aw at the horizon, taking time from their inquisition to appreciate the simple beauty of the world. For approximately four hours, not a word was uttered as all basked in the glory of that which they were a part of.

Of course, all good things must come to an end, and finally Kavehir mustered everyone back to their duties. A vociferous round of debate ensued, with accusations and counter-accusations ultimately resulting in Myrddraal being handed over to the Emperor in chains, all the while protesting the insanity and injustice of it all.

"Myddraal, we have found you guilty of subverting the empire and its citizens. No amount of protest nor coercion on your part will change your destiny," Kavehir proclaimed. "If, indeed, you are innocent, then you will find peace in the next life." With a great swing of his sword, Kavehir sent Myddraal's head fro his neck. "Come, my friends and subjects! Today was a glorious, beautiful day, but let us continue with our progress tomorrow! I am sure Providence will reward us once more!"



Myrddraal 5(El Barto, landlubber, Nightbringer, Monty, Sooh, JHT
Sooh 3(GH, Ituralde, GoldenKnight)
Monty 1 (Myrddraal
El Bart 1 (Zack)






Alive:


Autolycus
El Barto
GeneralHankerchief
Golden1Knight
Ituralde
Johnhughtom
Landlubber
Montmorency
Nightbringer
Sooh
Zack


Lynched:

Abstain (D1)
Andres (D2)
ACIN (D3)
Dcmort(D4)
Edse(D5)
Myrddraal(D6)

Killed:

Csargo (D1)
Bsmith (N2)
Ironside (N3)
Kagemusha(N4)
Visorslash (N5)
Askthepizzaguy(N6)

Attacked:

Ironside (N1)
Golden1Knight (N2)
Montmorency(N3)
Ituralde(N4)

[GeneralHankerchief]

Monty, just because you got your lynch and it's night phase doesn't mean I'm going to let you off the hook for this:

Alright, so operating under the assumption that there were three original scum, the Visorslash attack happened when there were two of them left (since dcmort's guilt appears not to be in question). They both appear in the writeup - silver mask and pearl mask.

The (revised) protection groups that night were 3-3-2. We know that they would have failed no matter what because some game mechanic caused all protection on Visor that night to be nullified. We're not sure if this was an innate ability or a mafia weapon, but my guess is the latter. Sooh and edse were both allegedly in on the protections - Sooh CC'd her orders to me and edse claimed so in the thread and this was never called into question.

So, at the moment, unless the mafia can be two people at once, the numbers do not appear to match up.

Monty?

[GeneralHankerchief]

Neither will I do so should your plan at night "accidentally" backfire and leave me dead.

[Myrddraal]

Oh yeah... the deadli*swish*thunk*gargle gargle*

[Askthepizzaguy]

I just want to take this moment to point out that I am still dead.

This is quite disconcerting. Usually the white mage is here by now to rez me.

I suppose the maggots can have their fun, but if I'm not alive by morning I'm going to be pretty smelly. I blame that jerk Abstain for all this.

[Montmorency]

I've been a bit busy, but yes, the attack is going through, orders pending.

Monty, just because you got your lynch and it's night phase doesn't mean I'm going to let you off the hook for this:

These are the same concerns I sent myself the other day, to both you and Myrd in various forms.

But here's when I first mentioned it - it was in-thread, at the time Visor was claiming scanner to distract the Mafia attack:

What makes you certain that the mafia can't double up on night actions? It's a reassuring assumption that appearing in the writeup fully clears a person, but it's not necessarily a correct one. Locking ourselves into this idea of thinking is a very poor decision.

OK, but presumably Mafia can't shadow-clone themselves.

If 9 people were with Visor, and 2 scum attacked, then those 9 cannot be scum unless we assume Visor got his scan wrong - unlikely given that he received the Kage treatment for his efforts.

I will check the backdoors if I have too. Just remember, again: If I am wrong here then the scum must be some of Zack, Barto, and Nightbringer

[Myrddraal]

Sooh, you agree with my points, but your vote is on me. What do you think of likelihood of the three options (a, b, c) I posted above?

@Sooh, I'm interested in your assessment. Don't feel it would be rude to reply just because I've expired

[Sooh]

I'll get to it. Right now I'm at work and can't really sit down and assess the situation.

[Sooh]

A distraction certainly, but not actually directly wrong. If there's precedent, I don't know about it. Note that if you believe that this is likely to be the case, then both mine and Monty's arguments are wrong, a side-show that the mafia are laughing at. In that case, you shouldn't be voting for me.

But really, my argument is not that I am certain (although I am, of course, certain of my own innocence). My argument is about what is most likely.

The bottom line, which is the more likely?
a) The mafia can duplicate themselves in write-ups, and both Monty and I are at each other's throats for no good reason.
b) I, somehow, knew who Monty was going to scan (even though, as far as I know, the only person he told was ATPG). I spoofed both the alignment and the past activity of his targets. When spoofing dc's scan, I correctly guessed that dc would be inactive that night.
c) Monty got caught out in a lie.

My adamance is clearly turning people's guts against me (what an unpleasant metaphor) but from my perspective I'm really struggling to see how Monty's argument is believable.

You asked what I thought of your scenarios, well, I don't know much about playing this kind of mafia at all. The only experience I have is by watching Pizza play with you guys. All I've ever played besides that is mafia where communication has happened solely in thread. This is unusual for me.

From where I stand and what I know about this kind of mafia I haven't seen anywhere that people can duplicate themselves in writeups. I don't know if that would be likely or not at all. I kind of depend on you guys there to tell me whether or not this is possible.

As for your point b, from what I understood in this thread it sounded as though you and GH were both part of the group who knew in advance who Monty was going to scan. If that is not correct and you said that somewhere that I missed then I apologize. It is possible that some of the scans have been correct while others have been compromised, so dc may have been actual mafia for all I know, and then someone started the manipulation.

Your scenario c is also a possibility, but one I think would be dangerous to assume. If Monty is in fact a scanner then it would be bad of us as a town to lynch him. However I assume as well that mafia will make sure to get rid of him once he has outplayed his role and starts becoming dangerous for them instead of useful.

As for which one is more likely I don't really think either of these are mutually exclusive, and clearly given where my vote was at I didn't trust you to be the good townie. Now whether or not I was right remains to be seen.

[El Barto]

I will check the backdoors if I have too. Just remember, again: If I am wrong here then the scum must be some of Zack, Barto, and Nightbringer

FTFY. I am not mafia.

The only experience I have is by watching Pizza play with you guys. All I've ever played besides that is mafia where communication has happened solely in thread. This is unusual for me.

Nearly six years ago we scientifically proved that he's always the mafia. Thus we can conclude that you only know how to play as mafia. Therefore, since you're playing, you must be mafia. My logic is undeniable.

[Sooh]

FTFY. I am not mafia.

Nearly six years ago we scientifically proved that he's always the mafia. Thus we can conclude that you only know how to play as mafia. Therefore, since you're playing, you must be mafia. My logic is undeniable.

*giggle*

I must hear more about this!

[El Barto]

Happy to oblige, my fair lady.

Civfanatics is where you must go.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Happy to oblige, my fair lady.

Civfanatics is where you must go.

I was, of course, not a mafioso in the game linked above.

Always mafia, except most of the time when I'm not.

[El Barto]

Hush! You're dead, therefore you can't post and you haven't posted because dead people don't post. I'm just trying to justify why I'll vote Sooh tomorrow.