Rise of The Snake Cult [Concluded]

[Cuthillius]

Here are Al's posts.

Vote: Raith Kemmler for apparently knowing something we don't know.

I lean town on Winston so far.

Well, you know, the mafia being the informed minority... and you appearing informed... and in minority, too.

But what about people who know that the people, saying that the speculation poster knows too much, know too much? That's, like, even more perfect, triple-distilled information. Vote: edse

I'd love for the scum to be reckless or bold, unabashedly or not. Alas, they usually try to keep low profile, lurk in the shadows. That's understandable, since the more active they are, the more mistakes they are bound to make. That's why I like to stir the pot a little. Even if they don't react and stay low - that's still a result, we can note who's been lurking. So either way, you're better be active.

Vote: Cass_. You're posting, but not voting. Why?

My leans are just my reads. More the intuition than the hard science. And this is just D1, there's nothing much to go on yet.
Also, El Barto is always unreadable.

Does Csargo always stop posting and goes MIA when he's randed mafia?

Anyone told Cuthillius the game has started?

To me, it seems like he's moving his vote around a little too much compared to the number of posts he's making and what he's saying. First he makes a sort of jokey vote, than he OMGUS's, then votes Cass because she hasn't voted enough. I just don't really see much mental transition between these and it kinda feels like he doesn't care much if any of them die.

Vote:Al Sipsclar

[Scarlett Aria]

Here are Al's posts.













To me, it seems like he's moving his vote around a little too much compared to the number of posts he's making and what he's saying. First he makes a sort of jokey vote, than he OMGUS's, then votes Cass because she hasn't voted enough. I just don't really see much mental transition between these and it kinda feels like he doesn't care much if any of them die.

Vote:Al Sipsclar

The thing that makes me think he is scum is his under the radar type play D1. It has a different tone then the others. The Csargo kill could possibly be someone who thinks he has good reads on this roster? Not sure because this is my first game.

[Al Sipsclar]

The thing that makes me think he is scum is his under the radar type play D1. It has a different tone then the others. The Csargo kill could possibly be someone who thinks he has good reads on this roster? Not sure because this is my first game.

How am I under the radar? I feel like I have a transponder stuck on "scum". As Cuth says below, I'm a permanent lynchbait.

I always find Sips hard to read. He seems to be a favorite mislynch target, but I haven't played enough with him to be certain of my reads.

I think we played in 3 games together. I was town in all, and you were scum in 2 out of three. Because of that I'm actually have to fight the scum bias against you.

[Cuthillius]

I think we played in 3 games together. I was town in all, and you were scum in 2 out of three. Because of that I'm actually have to fight the scum bias against you.

Lol you're right. You just get mislynched by other townies, not generally the scum team.

[Al Sipsclar]

To me, it seems like he's moving his vote around a little too much compared to the number of posts he's making and what he's saying. First he makes a sort of jokey vote, than he OMGUS's, then votes Cass because she hasn't voted enough. I just don't really see much mental transition between these and it kinda feels like he doesn't care much if any of them die.

Vote:Al Sipsclar

That's correct, I don't care much if any of them die. Why should I if I don't believe they are helping town? We are lynching someone here every day.

[seireikhaan]

Here are Al's posts.
To me, it seems like he's moving his vote around a little too much compared to the number of posts he's making and what he's saying. First he makes a sort of jokey vote, than he OMGUS's, then votes Cass because she hasn't voted enough. I just don't really see much mental transition between these and it kinda feels like he doesn't care much if any of them die.

Vote:Al Sipsclar

This seems rather silly to me. For what purpose would a mafioso move their vote around so much on day 1 for? It's too scatterbrained to be anything scheming. You might be correct that he doesn't care too much if they die or not, but that doesn't necessarily translate to him being mafia.

Vote: Scarlett Aria

While I find the case made by Cuthilius flimsy, I don't necessarily fault him for that in the sense of being guilty. What I *do* find suspicious is others latching onto it without any explanation of why they might agree with it. My eye is on GoldenKnight too, but Scarlett's setting off my bells slightly harder.

The thing that makes me think he is scum is his under the radar type play D1. It has a different tone then the others. The Csargo kill could possibly be someone who thinks he has good reads on this roster? Not sure because this is my first game.

Mostly for this. I don't even agree that Al was "under the radar". Under the radar is what I did. If he's flopping around with his vote, he's almost exactly the opposite; it's noisy and draws attention to himself. That doesn't strike me as mafia behavior, and it raises a brow from me that you would hop onto a case with such odd... reasoning.

[Cuthillius]

My eye is on GoldenKnight too, but Scarlett's setting off my bells slightly harder.

Note: if Golden scum, khaan likely too.

That said... Vote:Golden1knight because he really doesn't look good and hasn't really provided convincing defence.

[Golden1Knight]

It seems that I dug my own grave. That's what I get for coming out of the shadows lol

Golden1Knight is lynched. He was town.

[El Barto]

Note: if Golden scum, khaan likely too.

And if Golden ain't scum…? btw thanks for making the waggon slightly more irreversible.

It seems that I dug my own grave. That's what I get for coming out of the shadows lol

Golden1Knight is lynched. He was town.

Well, I call PIS on that.

[Cass_]

I'm leaving at 3am in the morning and will be driving interstate for the next couple of days so my activity will be scarce.

Wanted to follow up with this -

What content?

I only remember him protecting Al Sipsclair (though now Al Sips voted for his lynching).

@Golden1Knight is this the post you were referencing here? What's your current read on Al Sips and Cuth?

This seems rather silly to me. For what purpose would a mafioso move their vote around so much on day 1 for? It's too scatterbrained to be anything scheming. You might be correct that he doesn't care too much if they die or not, but that doesn't necessarily translate to him being mafia.

Vote: Scarlett Aria

While I find the case made by Cuthilius flimsy, I don't necessarily fault him for that in the sense of being guilty. What I *do* find suspicious is others latching onto it without any explanation of why they might agree with it. My eye is on GoldenKnight too, but Scarlett's setting off my bells slightly harder.

Mostly for this. I don't even agree that Al was "under the radar". Under the radar is what I did. If he's flopping around with his vote, he's almost exactly the opposite; it's noisy and draws attention to himself. That doesn't strike me as mafia behavior, and it raises a brow from me that you would hop onto a case with such odd... reasoning.

Alarm bells are ringing for me given the combination of these two posts. I can see the point about defending Al Sips, but that wasn't what stood out to me when I first read through. Especially with Khaan and Scarlett's flips, the whole thing reads to me like potential distancing from a combination of the the other's in the post (Cuth/GK), using Al Sips as the 'focus'. I got the impression from EoD discussions that Khaan is a competent scum player, so I don't think it's necessarily as simple as 'defending Al Sips', although that could simply be the case.

[spoiler]

This is probably the most interesting post to me. While it is, in and of itself, a fair point, I just don't see the reason to stick your neck out like this as mafia. Until this point all of seireikhaan's posts have been very insubstantial, so why suddenly throw yourself into a debate? It just makes your name more visible. While it could be that he simply felt he needed to look more active, I'm inclined to think this may have been provoked by something.

That Scarlett was gotten rid of tonight is probably just because she was a clear innocent after this post.

As such, I'm wanting to look more closely at Al Sipsclar for the time being. I'm going to go through the thread more closely again, but I might as well stick this here for now.

This one stands out as potential distancing also (from Khaan, post flip), for the roundabout approach and again focus on Al Sips. @Nightbringer - what did you discover on your re-read? What's your read on GK, Cuth and Al Sips?

Similarly with this one

Not before sleep caught up to me. I did it a little while ago and nothing really jumped out at me. Cuth reads town, he's been prodding people and looking for holes.

Could be GH was protecting Cuth, could be WIFOM cos he knew he was likely going down.

I'm think I'm specifically interested/troubled by the interaction between Cuth and Al Sips earlier ITT. My first impression was that Cuth was FoSing Sips and I found Sips more Town, but later the two of them seemed to kiss and make up without really giving reads on each other, which I found sus. Particularly the way Cuth picked out a post and just said 'I like this, you can be town' or whatever it was.

Anyway, I have Cuth to thank for this gif from our last game (made me smile the whole way through) but basically, this is me right now:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Who's the most Scummy???

Also,

I found nothing wrong in Khaan's reasoning about Scarlett and didn't like the other candidates so that's why I voted for her. In hindsight it wasn't wise.

Does tonight's write-up indicate that Scarlett was an important role?

Edse, which other options didn't you like at the time and why? Did you have any scum leans of your own?

I'll be reading through on and off as we drive, but I won't be able to make huge posts. GL!

[Visor]

End of Night Three

Three corpses! A nightmare.

Cuthillius was killed!

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Town

Landlubber was poisoned!

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Town

El Barto was killed!

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Mafia

Alive: 12/20
1. Jarema
3. Golden1Knight
6. Zain
8. edse
10. Raith Kemmler
13. Al Sipsclar
14. Winston Hughes
15. Nightbringer
16. Autolycus
17. Cass
18. Johnhughthom
19. Severing viper

Dead: 8/20
11. Beskar, lynched D1, town.
9. Csargo, killed N1, town.
5. seireikhaan, lynched D2, mafia.
20. Scarlett Aria, killed N2, town.
2. GeneralHankerchief, lynched D3, third party.
12. El Barto, killed N3, mafia.
4. Cuthillius, killed N3, town.
7. landlubber, poisoned N3, town.

48 hours for day.

[Golden1Knight]

Wanted to follow up with this -

@Golden1Knight is this the post you were referencing here? What's your current read on Al Sips and Cuth?

I believe that Al is aligned to town, keeping in mind solely his vote, after all he helped to lynch a mafioso (which is not definitive evidence, of course). I still need to investigate his posts to make a deeper analysis.

About Cuth, well, he died. Also, I imagine what killed El Barto and why he avoided any suspicion so far.

[Jarema]

El Barto mafia???

[Zain]

Wow 3 deaths... I can't help but suspect that SeveringViper may be scum. Al isn't clear off my radar either, but I do smell Lurker-scum.

Vote:SeveringViper

[Raith Kemmler]

Vote: GoldenKnight

Golden has some posts that feel a bit reactionary and worried, but I think this finger point straight at EB when there wasn't even a real movement against him is pretty salvaging.

Disagree. With Elly flipped as mafia, the joint effort GH and him put into switching the lynch candidate when GoldenKnight rocketed into contention makes him look terrible. In fact, it's so blatant I'm worried I'm tunneling on this issue and missing some other misdirection. But the simplest explanation would be saving GK, who really hasn't given us anything substantial all game.

El Barto mafia???

Honestly the least surprising of the three reveals to me. Sorry for not trusting you LL! Hope to game again soon. [/QUOTE]

@Winston: NP, will give a lean post later today.

[Nightbringer]

Alive: 12/20
1. Jarema
3. Golden1Knight
6. Zain
8. edse
10. Raith Kemmler
13. Al Sipsclar
14. Winston Hughes
15. Nightbringer
16. Autolycus
17. Cass
18. Johnhughthom
19. Severing viper

Day End Vote Histories:

Day 3
5 GH (Edse, Jarema, Al Sips, JHT, Cuth)
1 Edse (Auto)
1 Zain (Landlubber)
1 JHT (GH)
1 Al Sips (Zain)
2 Sev (Winston, Al Sips)
1 Auto (El Barto)

Day 2
2 Al Sips (Scarlett, Golden)
1 Edse (Jarema)
2 Scarlett (Khaan, edse)
1 Night (Zain)
1 Jarrema (Auto)
1 Golden (RK)
3 JHT (GH, EB, land)
4 Khaan (WH, Al Sips, JHT, Cass)

If we say that mafia did not vote themselves in the days since day 1 (when it is so random as to be a safe bet and an insurance policy, at least in this meta), then we can come up with this list. I'm hazarding the guess on mafia not voting eachother since there has been plenty of votes being thrown onto a variety of targets which helps leave space to sneak not following the pack on a fellow scum.
Green is voted for or voted against by known scum. Teal is voted for GH, which it appears skum would think was voting for their own.

Alive: 12/20
1. Jarema
3. Golden1Knight
6. Zain
8. edse
10. Raith Kemmler
13. Al Sipsclar
14. Winston Hughes
15. Nightbringer
16. Autolycus
17. Cass
18. Johnhughthom
19. Severing viper

Additionally, looking through the history on Al and EB, they have just been at loggerheads too much for me to think they would practically speaking be mafia buddies.

Also, looking at posts #284 - 292 EB seems to have been making attempts at throwing JHT and auto under the bus to save khaan, and also throwing some doubts at GK as well, making them all seem safer to me.


So, GK, Zain, Raith, Myself, and Viper

I dont know if that means anything, but it's good to remember.

Also, I think El Barto, Scarlett (khaan voted for her) and everyone who voted for Khaan are town. Plus, Edse voted along with Khaan, but this is not a definitive evidence. Yet it is something to watch out.

Golden has some posts that feel a bit reactionary and worried, but I think this finger point straight at EB when there wasn't even a real movement against him is pretty salvaging.


There is some interesting information from a while back that is either an indication that both zain and winston are mafia buddies and really playing a gambit, or is useful regarding zain.

Zain, whilst by no means proven innocent, is not responsible for the murder of Scarlett Aria.

Zain feels genuinely a bit befuddled and overwhelmed, as I am. Based on these, I feel reasonably safe about him.

As to Raith, it just doesn't feel like mafia to me the way he and EB went on at the start.

Kill speculation doesn't usually bear fruit in my experience. Especially in a closed set up. Maybe he looked like a Detective playing it low? Maybe not, but's it's tricky to figure out why mafia do things. If you've got a great explanation that helps frame someone's role, that's good, but just wondering is usually a mindless spiral. The mafia could have literally rolled the dice for all we know.

In this place, mafia do roll the dice for their kills in the beginning, but then people roll dice for their D1 vote and N1 actions.

I support this.

And why don't you vote for Nightbringer then?

Note to self: Do not insult Khaan.

Or vote for him. Or suggest his votes are unfounded. Or say that his former username was better. Or… well, just to play safe, play on another server and use TOR to connect.

You don't look like a pigeon.

I think Scarlett is still confused about how vote changing works.
Self demonstration: removing my vote from Cuthalious
Unvote

What?

It should say ‘whom’, not ‘who’.

Commitment scares me. Also reading the thread and looking for a better lead. But good for a default.
I support this.

You can always unvote.

I thought you were making a Good Feathers cartoon reference.
I support this.

Maybe I was…

Explanation:
(…)
I support this.

Kay. I'm gonna put her into solid town then for now.
No, wait, what?

I know I'm innocent, but can't really prove it.

So we're left with viper, who has been very inactive.

Let's see what barto has had to say about him.

I'm really torn about General. His posts sound reasonable, but I don't like his D1 vote and tunneling on JHT.
However, I'd rather lynch SV or Nightbringer over GH.
Vote: SeveringViper

I'll repeat myself then. Why and why? (well, with 20/20 hindsight I can definitely assure you that GH is not town)

Too blatant of an attempt to sway things towards myself over viper, or trying to make sure his inactive buddy isn't the inactive being targeted? After all, having a new player who may get nervous while being mafia be staged as an inactive isn't a bad strategy.

Also, his one substantial post here (I'm sick of nested quotes...) really reads like he knows exactly what has been happening in thread (even if some of the meanings of things are unclear to him). Knowing what's going on without really commenting is often a tell of a fake inactive to me.

So, for the time being.
vote: severingviper

[Jarema]

I like your analysis. I will vote: Zain

[SeveringViper]

Long post:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

So we're left with viper, who has been very inactive.

Let's see what barto has had to say about him.

However, I'd rather lynch SV or Nightbringer over GH.
Vote: SeveringViper

I'll repeat myself then. Why and why? (well, with 20/20 hindsight I can definitely assure you that GH is not town)

Too blatant of an attempt to sway things towards myself over viper, or trying to make sure his inactive buddy isn't the inactive being targeted? After all, having a new player who may get nervous while being mafia be staged as an inactive isn't a bad strategy.

Or maybe pushing Al about the reasoning for his vote to seem like engaged town? Have you also considered his having in mind to make me, a seeming inactive who probably won't note/respond to the defense, look bad by association should he die?

Also, his one substantial post here (I'm sick of nested quotes...) really reads like he knows exactly what has been happening in thread (even if some of the meanings of things are unclear to him). Knowing what's going on without really commenting is often a tell of a fake inactive to me.

(Well, maybe nested quotes wouldn't be such a pain if you could quote them instead of having to manually set them up? -~-) So, what do you mean by fake inactive? Someone who knows what's been happening but has nothing to say? But then there's this:

Zain feels genuinely a bit befuddled and overwhelmed, as I am. Based on these, I feel reasonably safe about him.

So you clear someone for seeming "genuinely a bit befuddled and overwhelmed" (and Zain seems to have had a clear idea of where he wants to go, at least, as I will point out next), yet you suspect me for showing I'm "keeping up without really commenting" which, as far as I understand, is pretty close to what makes you like Zain? Or would you say you like someone flailing over just not bothering to talk about what they don't know? (I'll also note that as of this post, our post numbers are equal, for what it's worth. ^^)

As for Zain, he starts off with his first serious (or semi-serious) post by voting Night for inactivity. (Is that why you called him confused? ) Then he says he won't be around that much, which would serve as his reason for the low number of posts:

Though it's hard for me to be very active during this holiday season

And his next two posts are:

I'm not lurking on purpose if I am...

Just want to be helpful, I just can't keep up. It's like y'all know rules and strategies I haven't heard of so I'm learning.

Then later, he comes back to me, but decides to ignore me as inactive and having little to look at. He then adds this:

So I weigh my options, and I feel that activity may be an easy cover-up for scum. I know in the past playing Mafia in person, when I was scum it was easy to fool everybody by obviously drawing attention to myself.

But:

That being said, inactivity is both scummy and intriguing, therefore for the time being...

Vote: Nightbringer

So you consider inactivity scummy enough to vote someone for it early, but later on, you suggest scum would more likely be active?
Then he votes Al based on "instinct"...or perhaps, being one of the three highest posters that isn't his scumbuddy and voteable by the logic he just used.

Finally:

Wow 3 deaths... I can't help but suspect that SeveringViper may be scum. Al isn't clear off my radar either, but I do smell Lurker-scum.

Vote:SeveringViper

So he "can't help but suspect me", going back to lurkers being scummy in the process, while leaving himself open to go after Al again later. Also, Al is still on his radar due to the previously mentioned "instinct", I take it?

In summary, he takes clear positions...that he switches between, and mainly pushes people for inactivity (besides for one unexplained suspicion/vote on Al) despite claiming that he feels scum would easily hide in activity, which he at the same time appears to use to justify suspecting Al. I would say he seems more likely to be somewhat inactive and confused scum, trying to get a mislynch or two with some decent doublethink.

Vote: Zain
If he flips scum, perhaps Nightbringer is next...

[Jarema]

Green is voted for or voted against by known scum. Teal is voted for GH, which it appears skum would think was voting for their own.
Alive: 12/20
1. Jarema
3. Golden1Knight
6. Zain
8. edse
10. Raith Kemmler
13. Al Sipsclar
14. Winston Hughes
15. Nightbringer
16. Autolycus
17. Cass
18. Johnhughthom
19. Severing viper

I think it is crucial part.

I can agree that someone else may be better candidate than unvote: Zain. For example, vote: Golden1knight