Rise of The Snake Cult [Concluded]

[Visor]

End of Night Two

The Duchess was found with multiple stab wounds on the floor of the court. The Cult had responded harshly for the death of one of their leaders. More threatened to come.

Scarlett Aria was killed!

She was

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

town!

Alive: 16/20
1. Jarema
2. GeneralHankerchief
3. Golden1Knight
4. Cuthillius
6. Zain
7. landlubber
8. edse
10. Raith Kemmler
12. El Barto
13. Al Sipsclar
14. Winston Hughes
15. Nightbringer
16. Autolycus
17. Cass
18. Johnhughthom
19. Severing viper

Dead: 4/20
11. Beskar, lynched D1, town.
9. Csargo, killed N1, town.
5. seireikhaan, lynched D2, mafia.
20. Scarlett Aria, killed N2, town.

48 hours for day.

[edse]

Do you know how long you have left to live?

No, I feel bad and can die at any moment.

So edse is a filthy Swede after all?

Not for long if you keep saying that.

But where there is poison, there is cure. Visor usually adds a doctor that can save the poisoned. It would be very nice if you'd cure me tonight *hint, hint*

[Nightbringer]

Oh dear, I need to get my head in this game.

Here is a compilation of seireikhaan's posts for convenience.

DAY 1

Quote Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

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Okay, good. Now, to business.
Vote: khaan"

Rude!
Vote: GH

Might slant me towards believing GH is town since there is no real reason to draw associations with your fellow mafia.

Quote Originally Posted by Scarlett Aria

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So to understand some of you better. I'm going to ask 2 questions to kind of understand where you are coming from.

1. If you are scum how would you approach a closed setup?

2. If you are town how would you approach a closed setup?

1. Wouldn't answer that truthfully anyways.

2. See above.

Pretty meaningless response.

Unvote: GH
Vote: El Barto

Don't you touch my honeybun.

(Barto had just voted GH)

I would say this is basically just playing into normal meta, although again no real reason to think he would do this towards fellow mafia without need, especially since all the votes were so close on day 1.

Quote Originally Posted by Cass_

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The response is essentially null but at least he outright said he's not clueless or intending to be - ergo, he's not hiding behind that and even if he was he can't now because he'll be caught out. I'm not sure yet whether he's more likely scummy or low hanging fruit. My next step is to look at vote trains (I know, I'm cutting it close).

For what it's worth, I and I'm pretty sure at least a few others were pretty clueless on what exactly you meant by that. Been playing here since '07(though not as long as certain others), and have never seen people refer to setups as open or closed before. Just one of those little meta things that different places have. Believe me, if Beskar had tried pretending he was a noob, that would have been a *very* transparent tactic.

I find it hard to believe he would be having this conversation with fellow mafia, so I'm inclined to trust cass.

Quote Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

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As for khaan, I'm probably putting words in his mouth, but he's likely to save me on D1 when there's nothing to go off of, but he'd be more than willing to cut my throat midgame if he thinks I'm scum. Or if he flat-out doesn't have a read on me. Or if there's no good lynch candidate and he simply wants to troll. But by that time he's usually picked up a grudge against at least one other player in the game and will have tunnel vision on them, so who knows.

You can put those words wherever you want, love.

I would say this is just a meta post.

Quote Originally Posted by El Barto

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And you voted me (always a bad thing to do) for voting him…?

Yeah, that sounds about right.

Again, I would say this is basically meta. It just feels too blatant to be a bluff against either GH or El Barto

Quote Originally Posted by Cuthillius

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Here are Al's posts.
To me, it seems like he's moving his vote around a little too much compared to the number of posts he's making and what he's saying. First he makes a sort of jokey vote, than he OMGUS's, then votes Cass because she hasn't voted enough. I just don't really see much mental transition between these and it kinda feels like he doesn't care much if any of them die.
Vote:Al Sipsclar

This seems rather silly to me. For what purpose would a mafioso move their vote around so much on day 1 for? It's too scatterbrained to be anything scheming. You might be correct that he doesn't care too much if they die or not, but that doesn't necessarily translate to him being mafia.

Vote: Scarlett Aria

While I find the case made by Cuthilius flimsy, I don't necessarily fault him for that in the sense of being guilty. What I *do* find suspicious is others latching onto it without any explanation of why they might agree with it. My eye is on GoldenKnight too, but Scarlett's setting off my bells slightly harder.

Quote Originally Posted by Scarlett Aria

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The thing that makes me think he is scum is his under the radar type play D1. It has a different tone then the others. The Csargo kill could possibly be someone who thinks he has good reads on this roster? Not sure because this is my first game."

Mostly for this. I don't even agree that Al was "under the radar". Under the radar is what I did. If he's flopping around with his vote, he's almost exactly the opposite; it's noisy and draws attention to himself. That doesn't strike me as mafia behavior, and it raises a brow from me that you would hop onto a case with such odd... reasoning.

This is probably the most interesting post to me. While it is, in and of itself, a fair point, I just don't see the reason to stick your neck out like this as mafia. Until this point all of seireikhaan's posts have been very insubstantial, so why suddenly throw yourself into a debate? It just makes your name more visible. While it could be that he simply felt he needed to look more active, I'm inclined to think this may have been provoked by something.

That Scarlett was gotten rid of tonight is probably just because she was a clear innocent after this post.

As such, I'm wanting to look more closely at Al Sipsclar for the time being. I'm going to go through the thread more closely again, but I might as well stick this here for now.

[Nightbringer]

Nightbringer: Got whacked with RL issues in The Inquisition so wasn't that active. Baseline in that game was a bit like Winston, (Decent levels of activity but his posts are usually short and to the point. Will elaborate if pressed though.) though he's more prone to dropping in, casting his vote, and being done with the round.

Also, this is a great characterization of my usual activity in mafia games for a while now, although i do tend to get much more active once there are less people around. I tend to find the early game a bit overwhelming.

[edse]

1. Jarema
2. GeneralHankerchief
3. Golden1Knight
4. Cuthillius
6. Zain
7. landlubber
8. edse
10. Raith Kemmler
12. El Barto
13. Al Sipsclar
14. Winston Hughes
15. Nightbringer
16. Autolycus
17. Cass
18. Johnhughthom
19. Severing viper

16 people left. The four that voted for Khaan are probably not mafia. I'm not mafia.

The first day Khaan made an early joke vote.

Rude!

Vote: GH

Later, when GH was tied for the lead, he changed it.

Unvote: GH

Vote: El Barto

Don't you touch my honeybun.

That's good enough for me at the moment Vote: GeneralHankerchief

[Nightbringer]

1. Jarema
2. GeneralHankerchief
3. Golden1Knight
4. Cuthillius
6. Zain
7. landlubber
8. edse
10. Raith Kemmler
12. El Barto
13. Al Sipsclar
14. Winston Hughes
15. Nightbringer
16. Autolycus
17. Cass
18. Johnhughthom
19. Severing viper

16 people left. The four that voted for Khaan are probably not mafia. I'm not mafia.

The first day Khaan made an early joke vote.

Later, when GH was tied for the lead, he changed it.


That's good enough for me at the moment Vote: GeneralHankerchief

It just feels too blatant and meta to me, but it is possible. I would say it takes El Barto off the suspect list for sure though. I had missed the Al voted khann though.

[Jarema]

vote: GeneralHankerchief too

[Cuthillius]

FTR, Alette was pretty suspicious of Sips this whole time. Not sure if that means anything, but good to keep in mind.

[autolycus]

I don't like this GH wagon. I think vote:edse is a good alternative. It feels like he was starting a case early to divert from the fact that he voted the same way as khaan yesterday.

[Cuthillius]

I don't like this GH wagon. I think vote:edse is a good alternative. It feels like he was starting a case early to divert from the fact that he voted the same way as khaan yesterday.

I say we wait to see if he dies from poison first.

[landlubber]

I still think the ties between GH and Khaan are null. They'd act like that regardless of their alignments.

I have a very hard time seeing Al Sips as scum given that he was eager to lynch Khaan. Why wouldn't a mafioso just ignore that wagon, pretend that they didn't see it until after the day ended?

I'm feeling vote:Zain.

[Winston Hughes]

Zain, whilst by no means proven innocent, is not responsible for the murder of Scarlett Aria.

[Winston Hughes]

The four that voted for Khaan are probably not mafia.

I'm not so confident as that. My post coming so late, there was a chance of khaan surviving to get lynched today instead. Nevertheless, it was pretty much a headshot, and if I'm his scumbuddy in that situation, I can certainly imagine pushing him under the bus right then.

[Al Sipsclar]

As such, I'm wanting to look more closely at Al Sipsclar for the time being. I'm going to go through the thread more closely again, but I might as well stick this here for now.

I had missed the Al voted khann though.

Yes, I beg you, please look more closely. You're missing pretty obvious moments.

[Al Sipsclar]

Also, this is a great characterization of my usual activity in mafia games for a while now, although i do tend to get much more active once there are less people around. I tend to find the early game a bit overwhelming.

This is also what Auto keeps saying. If you're mafia, this translates as: "Let us kill few townies first, then we can lynch pretty much anyone."

[Al Sipsclar]

I don't like this GH wagon. I think vote:edse is a good alternative. It feels like he was starting a case early to divert from the fact that he voted the same way as khaan yesterday.

Though I don't like Auto's vote (I consider edse pretty much clear at this point), I, too, would like to know why you voted Scarlett yesterday, @edse?

I say we wait to see if he dies from poison first.

Not if he gets cured.

[El Barto]

No, I feel bad and can die at any moment.

So the, um, waiting time is… indefinite?

Not for long if you keep saying that.

Are you going to shower then?

But where there is poison, there is cure. Visor usually adds a doctor that can save the poisoned. It would be very nice if you'd cure me tonight *hint, hint*

Very much so.

I say we wait to see if he dies from poison first.

As Al says, not if he gets cured.

Zain, whilst by no means proven innocent, is not responsible for the murder of Scarlett Aria.

Interesting.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Wait, where in the writeup (or the thread for that matter) does it mention that edse got poisoned and could possibly get cured?

[El Barto]

edse mentioned it and Winston said that he'd seen seireikhaan visiting him, there was a sudden waggon on 'khaan and then khaan was dead and turned out to be mafia.

[GeneralHankerchief]

What about the hint of a cure though?

[Al Sipsclar]

Updating my leans:

Town:
Winston Hughes - would be a ballsey gambit to push for khaan's lynch to save JHT
Raith Kemmler - good content
edse - though voting Scarlett was bad
Cass_ - Cemented khaan's lynch. I will never get over her delaying her vote until late in the day. Vote early, vote often!

Slight town:
Cuthillius - continuing attempts at scumhunting
El Barto - good level of activity
Johnhughthom - lynched khaan, though was saving himself in the process, might be bussing.

Neutral/Unknown:
Jarema - townie meta according to few folks
landlubber - his voting choices worry me
Autolycus - still filthy lurker, questionable voting choices
Zain - eager and overexcited, but understandable after a long hiatus. Was not visiting Scarlett last night.
Golden1Knight - some activity, keep it up

Slight scum:
GeneralHankerchief - D2: was ready to lynch Jarema or JHT. D1: why Beskar had to die for you to live?
Severing viper - MIA? duplicate posts D1. Understandable since he's new to the forum, though might also show nervousness.
Nightbringer - some attempt at analysis, but no vote?

I Vote: GeneralHankerchief for now.

[GeneralHankerchief]

GeneralHankerchief - D2: was ready to lynch Jarema or JHT. D1: why Beskar had to die for you to live?

I don't see how these are strikes against me. Jarema was inactive at the time, JHT still is aside from his preservation vote against khaan. As for the Beskar thing, I picked him because I wasn't sure about his identity, he had votes on him already, and I knew my identity. Why are you giving JHT a free pass for the self-preservation vote and calling me out for it?

[El Barto]

What about the hint of a cure though?

It's a bit meta, as far as I can tell… edse wouldn't be simply told ‘right, you're dying’ if there wasn't some way of saving him. Otherwise there would be a visit to his place (I'm assuming Winston is a tracker/watcher) and then edse would die without explanation x days/nights later and we'd be none the wiser; the mafia could just use poison and wait for people to die which they could camouflage by subtly influencing lynches. Several days later someone might figure that out, but that'd be too much… has anyone else gotten poisoned? That way we would know whether it takes effect within a given number of days (edse said "I feel bad and can die at any moment.") or not.

Of course, this all depends on edse telling the truth; I think it's believable.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Not for long if you keep saying that.

But where there is poison, there is cure. Visor usually adds a doctor that can save the poisoned. It would be very nice if you'd cure me tonight *hint, hint*

Upon further read I accept this. Now if Al Sip could clarify what I perceive to be uneven logic we can move forward.

[Al Sipsclar]

It's been noted in the past that townie Jarema is noticeably less verbose than scum Jarema.

Which I really regret.
As a scum, I feel that I owe it to my emies to give them something to analize, for the sake of fairness of the game. And, as a townie, I dont feel such obligation. Sometimes, I try to make cases, but it is hard with no informations from without the thread

Jarema, may I suggest that you always play as if you're a scum. If anything, you'll make it impossible for Visor to call you out.

[El Barto]

…But Visor isn't playing.

[Al Sipsclar]

I don't see how these are strikes against me. Jarema was inactive at the time, JHT still is aside from his preservation vote against khaan. As for the Beskar thing, I picked him because I wasn't sure about his identity, he had votes on him already, and I knew my identity. Why are you giving JHT a free pass for the self-preservation vote and calling me out for it?

Choosing between JHT and you: he lynched a scum, you lynched a townie. Granted, you probably wasn't sure he was a townie, but on D1 the chances are very high. I hope there's a good reason for you to value your role more than any other townie's role. I know that in this game I wouldn't risk a mislynch to save myself.

I'm open to alternatives. What are your leans?

[El Barto]

Please tell me you're not asking GH to reveal his role on this kind of argument.

[Al Sipsclar]

Please tell me you're not asking GH to reveal his role on this kind of argument.

I think I worded it carefully enough to avoid that. I said that I hope he has a good reason, and I'm asking for his opinion on potential lynch candidates that I could support instead.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Yeah no, I'm pretty much always going to self-preserve unless the circumstances are extreme. I value my role more than everyone else's because I'm 100% sure of it. Simple as that, not apologizing for how I play, not going to change it, and going to be really annoyed if that's why I get lynched.

As for alternate candidates, I'm still aboard the JHT train. JHT's vote on khaan tells me very little, and he's bussed people in the past. As for you, I disagree with a lot of your leans, particularly in terms of your correlating activity to townieness, but that's most likely you being unfamiliar with the baseline/a fundamental disagreement between us as opposed to scumminess.

Vote:johnhughthom