IMMIGRATION thread

[Don Corleone]

This is terribly unfortunate and distressing. On the one hand, even if the numbers of perpetrators approached 10,000, that would be a tiny fraction of the 1M refugees that Germany accepted in 2015, forget the even greater numbers of men of Arabic and North African descent (those on visa, those naturalized, and even those native born). Sadly, this will generate a backlash of violence against all the super-majority of peaceful refugees and others just looking for a better life.

That being said, the crime itself is intolerable. Sweeping it under the rug in the hopes of avoiding offense to the arabic/NA community at large or denying the common origin of the attacks to the larger general public is going to undermine confidence and healthy respect in necessary authority.

I would advise the German government that they go the other way on this. In a very high profile fashion, invite the enclave community leaders to very publicly participate in a stern, widespread and unflinching disciplinary response. Those who can be proven to have participated should be either jailed (citizens) or deported (refugees or documented/undocumented immigrants).

Sure, there may be some howls from the enclave communities, but this is an issue that's going on across racial and religoius lines. The old lie of "well, boys will be boys" must be stamped out forever. I personally don't care if my one of my daughters got groped by a Syrian refugee who's pissed that he's unemployed and living on handouts or a navy pilot who's drunk and letting off some steam... either way I want the man held accountable to the fullest extent of the law.

We don't like to admit it, but we live in a rape culture. This is just one more facet of it. We shouldn't tolerate it from new immigrants and refugees, but we shouldn't tolerate from those who've been here for a while either.

[Sarmatian]

Does everyone ignore this part of the article?

The pretty Christmas market and medieval setting may look idyllic, but at Christmas and New Year the area around Cologne Cathedral is a notorious danger zone when it comes to pickpockets and theft.

I wonder if it was like this in the 90's, when Serbs were actively demonized. There are hundreds of links about it, very little substance and all most likely originate from the same source. There is difference in the tone, though. jihadiwatch.org, for instance, talks about "thousands of Muslims walking around assaulting women and committing rapes", while thelocal.de also mentions words of the police chief of Cologne who said that a lot of perpetrators have been known to the police for years and are locals, not refugees.

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that haters saw some Arabs in the crowd and decided to blow it out of proportions, Fragony style.

[Husar]

Haha, I only came here to see if Fragony had already started the inevitable thread.

I agree with Don, the nazis will probably look for some poor guys to beat up so both sides end up creating more victims while the actual perpetrators may get away.

The press totally ignored it, that's why it is in all the public and private news outlets I guess.

Merkel ignored the issue by saying they should be persecuted "with the full force of the law".
Whether the law here is actually up to the task is up for debate though. No reason to vote for parties that would finance gas chambers, but I do wonder why we only know the extremes. There is not much to be found in much of the public debate between "all immigrants are kittens" and "all immigrants are rapist criminals, children included". Therein lies the real tragedy.

[Papewaio]

Rape victims per annum 9/100,000 in Germany reported.

Cologne metro: 1,000,000.
So 90 rape victims per annum in Cologne or .25 rapes per day.

Cologne regions: 10,000,000
So 900 rape victims per annum or 2.5 in the region per day.

1 rape victim is too many. But it is not proven it was a refugee nor does it make a statistical difference against the local background rate.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Rape victims per annum 9/100,000 in Germany reported.

Cologne metro: 1,000,000.
So 90 rape victims per annum in Cologne or .25 rapes per day.

Cologne regions: 10,000,000
So 900 rape victims per annum or 2.5 in the region per day.

1 rape victim is too many. But it is not proven it was a refugee nor does it make a statistical difference against the local background rate.

OK, now calculate for sexual assaults - irrc 80 were reported in one night, one was a rape.

So that's the one rape for four days in the Metro area or 1/90th of the yearly total.

Now - aside from that, what percentage do the 79 sexual assaults represent?

Also, according to the local German police these sexual assault at new year are different to the normal robbings and pick-pockets.

[a completely inoffensive name]

The answer is more unchecked immigration.

[Papewaio]

OK, now calculate for sexual assaults - irrc 80 were reported in one night, one was a rape.

Now - aside from that, what percentage do the 79 sexual assaults represent?

Also, according to the local German police these sexual assault at new year are different to the normal robbings and pick-pockets.

Sexual violence 56.56/100,000 or 566 per year in Cologne metro or 2 a day. So a 40 fold increase for the Metro.
Cologne region 5656 or 20/day.

What percentage of these are local vs refugees?

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

OK, so a 40-fold increase.

That's a big deal.

Reports are the majority of the assaults were committed by groups of Arabs/North Africans.

This is believable because we're talking about young men who have a very different view of what a "proper" woman is who have just escaped a war zone.

[InsaneApache]

Haha, I only came here to see if Fragony had already started the inevitable thread.

I agree with Don, the nazis will probably look for some poor guys to beat up so both sides end up creating more victims while the actual perpetrators may get away.

The press totally ignored it, that's why it is in all the public and private news outlets I guess.

Merkel ignored the issue by saying they should be persecuted "with the full force of the law".
Whether the law here is actually up to the task is up for debate though. No reason to vote for parties that would finance gas chambers, but I do wonder why we only know the extremes. There is not much to be found in much of the public debate between "all immigrants are kittens" and "all immigrants are rapist criminals, children included". Therein lies the real tragedy.

I feel sorry for you, I really do. The mental contortions must keep you up at night mate.

German police have admitted to losing several urban areas to migrant gangs as so-called no-go zones, but this is possibly the first time a public square in the centre of a European city has been acknowledged by officials as having been lost to criminality, and out of the control of police at night.

“This means, they should go out and have fun, but they need to be better prepared, especially with the Cologne carnival coming up. For this, we will publish online guidelines* that these young women can read through to prepare themselves”.

Presumably this involves covering up from head to toe in clothing and only going out accompanied by a male relative.

Your country will be unrecognisable in a couple of years, if not sooner.

[Fragony]

Your country will be unrecognisable in a couple of years, if not sooner.

Never state the obvious it makes you look dumb. It isn't dumb but hey, according to the childless mutti it will all be fine if we all pray more. Talk about a religious nutjob childless mutti with a messias complex. And they do just that in her inner circles as well. She didn't just lose her mind but caused a lot of damage to all Europeans with just ignoring the Dublin treaty concerning the Schengen zone. Come to me little children. Screw that dumb-eyed farmhorse.

[Husar]

I came to this thread and I have been disappointed.

"But, but, there's no EVIDENCE that the refugees did it."

"The nazis, it's all in their heads! They saw some arabs and africans and blew it out of proportion!"

"It's only 1000 out of 1000000 it's statistically correct."

Yeah yeah. It's 1000 organized DAISIES groping and harassing white skinned blond gemran women for having the audacity to celebrate NYE outside without their leashes and ninja outfits!

The media is all hush-hush about it because we have to be tolerant. Well now. Merkel did want the immigrants to freshen up the gene pool. That's one way to do it.

Can you tell me what would have happened if 1000 strong aryan males had gathered near a mosque and had groped and put their fingers up the orifices of arab/african women coming out of said mosque? Why, it would have been an intenrational crisis. They would probably have been bombed by NATO by now.

These are the childless mutti's little children, coooome to meeee. Face it Merkel has lost her mind and should be running around between padded walls in a selfhugsuit. Just look at her eyes

Edit, how typical. Collognes mayor responds. Good no? Women should keep their distance from men at carnaval. True. But that isn't what happened at New Years Eve. Is it so hard to admit that these were the childless muttii's little children who turned Collogne's station-area into the tahir-square.

lol gets even better, a website with advice, www.notgettingsexuallyassaultedby1000arabs.de. Ok I made the name up but it's there. Except any mention of Arabs. How did Germany ever build these nice skylines? Bit unpractical 'Gunter can you hand me the spade?' Sorry I only have a peace of metal that is attached to a wooden stick with the purpose of digging sand. 'yeah that'. Most valuable advice 'stay inside when you can'. Merkel's Germany.

I feel sorry for you, I really do. The mental contortions must keep you up at night mate.





Presumably this involves covering up from head to toe in clothing and only going out accompanied by a male relative.

Your country will be unrecognisable in a couple of years, if not sooner.

Ya'll can't read...

http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/de-m...koeln-103.html
http://www.spiegel.de/panorama/justi...a-1070730.html
http://www.spiegel.de/panorama/justi...a-1070763.html
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/i...-14000167.html
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/i...-14000124.html
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/i...-14000424.html
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35237173

Who has the mental contortions about "the press is silent" or "Merkel supports this"?
And who is reading my "I agree with Don." as an excuse? Let me quote Don:

That being said, the crime itself is intolerable.

Ya'll seriously need to check yer preconceptions and read...

[Fragony]

Merkel just didn't expect this because she is a religionaly insane idiot with a messias-complex. Everybody else did.

[Don Corleone]

Speaking to the question of my assertion that we live in a rape culture... I should clarify that I'm speaking to the everyday occurrence in America. From regular business trips to UK and continental Europe, I believe you folks are more evolved on this issue than we are.

I'm not saying that every woman that claims rape should automatically be believed, or that false reports aren't made. Of course they are. The Duke Lacrosse case a couple of years ago certainly highlighted that. And yes, there is stigma attached to being on the receiving end of a rape accusation in some circles.

But my reason for making a statement like that...

-According to the FBI (not a policy group), only 1 in 10 sexual assaults gets reported.
-Also according to the FBI, only 1 in 10 sexual assaults that get reported actually have charges filed.
-Also, according to... you guessed it, the FBI, 1 in 20 perpetrators that get charged actually end up getting convicted.
-That means there's a 1 in 2000 chance you won't get away with it.
-Until a federal spending bill 2 years criminalized the practice, hospitals used to bill the victim for their rape kits in most jurisdictions.
-Unlike theft, assault, arson, murder of other serious crimes, rape trials are as much about the victim as they are about the defendant:
-What was she wearing
-What was her sexual history
-Was she alone? Why?
-Had she been drinking?
-Was she acquainted with the perpetrator? Did she agree to some consensual contact prior to the assault?

If Europe has evolved completely beyond the above, bravo. And that would seriously have me consider becoming an immigrant to Germany myself.

My original point however still stands. "Those filthy brownies are after our women" is so played out, I'm surprised you don't see it for what it is. 1) There's an overwhelming majority of those folks that are not involved in this and 2) if anybody goes after your women... there's your problem. If a Freemason burns my house down, I go after arsonists, not the Freemasons.

[Fragony]

You mean well but the correlations are indisputable. If you would say a sexist-culture I cannot disagree but is that all that horrible. its mutually exclusive. In any case, some nerve what these cultural-enrichers did. We are not to tolerate people who fell of their camel lost his tent and somehow ended up in Europe

[Viking]

I'm not saying that every woman that claims rape should automatically be believed, or that false reports aren't made. Of course they are. The Duke Lacrosse case a couple of years ago certainly highlighted that. And yes, there is stigma attached to being on the receiving end of a rape accusation in some circles.

But my reason for making a statement like that...

-According to the FBI (not a policy group), only 1 in 10 sexual assaults gets reported.
-Also according to the FBI, only 1 in 10 sexual assaults that get reported actually have charges filed.
-Also, according to... you guessed it, the FBI, 1 in 20 perpetrators that get charged actually end up getting convicted.
-That means there's a 1 in 2000 chance you won't get away with it.
-Until a federal spending bill 2 years criminalized the practice, hospitals used to bill the victim for their rape kits in most jurisdictions.

All fine and dandy, but how does this indicate that we are dealing with a "rape culture"? (it's not hard to think of alternative explanations)

Importantly, the statistics you've chosen do not include the perpetrators. How do they compare to the average individual? How do they score on empathy? How good are they at reading other people?

A relevant perspective:

In other studies, Treat and colleagues have found that men who have difficulties perceiving and remembering sexual interest are more likely to endorse rape myths. The endorsement of rape myths is generally seen as indicating an increased tendency to engage in sexual coercion and aggression.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog...she-interested

^ This could potentially be a biological failure.

-Unlike theft, assault, arson, murder of other serious crimes, rape trials are as much about the victim as they are about the defendant:
-What was she wearing
-What was her sexual history
-Was she alone? Why?
-Had she been drinking?
-Was she acquainted with the perpetrator? Did she agree to some consensual contact prior to the assault?

References? (e.g. for prevalence)

[Greyblades]

But my reason for making a statement like that...

-According to the FBI (not a policy group), only 1 in 10 sexual assaults gets reported.
-Also according to the FBI, only 1 in 10 sexual assaults that get reported actually have charges filed.
-Also, according to... you guessed it, the FBI, 1 in 20 perpetrators that get charged actually end up getting convicted.
-That means there's a 1 in 2000 chance you won't get away with it.

To say I am not impressed, with how you can come to that conclusion, would be an understatment.

That the first statistic is an estimate based on... I cant imagine, cynicism? How can anyone give accurate stats on things that are unreported?

The second statistic is entirely based on victim willingness to press charges, the motives of which cannot be stated with confidence as each one could be anything from "well it was just a kiss, we were on a date so maybe I shouldn't be getting so worked up" to "his family will kill me if I press charges" or even "I'm lying and I can't trust the court will fall for it"

And the third is completely irrelevant as we have no idea how many of those 9/10 unconvicted cases were innocent and thus justified.

From this you cannot in good conscience say sexual assulters have a 1 in 2000 chance of getting caught.

Compounding this is my understanding that in america sexual assault has a wide reaching definition, some would say absurdly so. How much of that useless 1 in 2000 stat regarding rape and how much is just accidentally overstepping the desired bounds in a date? We cannot know.

-Until a federal spending bill 2 years criminalized the practice, hospitals used to bill the victim for their rape kits in most jurisdictions.

Was this a "rape culture" problem or a privatised medicine wanting to make money problem?

-Unlike theft, assault, arson, murder of other serious crimes, rape trials are as much about the victim as they are about the defendant:
-What was she wearing
-What was her sexual history
-Was she alone? Why?
-Had she been drinking?
-Was she acquainted with the perpetrator? Did she agree to some consensual contact prior to the assault?

The first and third questions is irrelavent and should be rightly ridiculed but the rest are very important in determining concent, as a major problem in rape accusations is victims retroactively denying concent.

My original point however still stands. "Those filthy brownies are after our women" is so played out, I'm surprised you don't see it for what it is. 1) There's an overwhelming majority of those folks that are not involved in this and 2) if anybody goes after your women... there's your problem. If a Freemason burns my house down, I go after arsonists, not the Freemasons.

Agreed, and if the arsonists are Freemasons we should go after them regardless of their status.

[Fisherking]

Haha, I only came here to see if Fragony had already started the inevitable thread.

I agree with Don, the nazis will probably look for some poor guys to beat up so both sides end up creating more victims while the actual perpetrators may get away.

The press totally ignored it, that's why it is in all the public and private news outlets I guess.

Merkel ignored the issue by saying they should be persecuted "with the full force of the law".
Whether the law here is actually up to the task is up for debate though. No reason to vote for parties that would finance gas chambers, but I do wonder why we only know the extremes. There is not much to be found in much of the public debate between "all immigrants are kittens" and "all immigrants are rapist criminals, children included". Therein lies the real tragedy.

The press here has been offering many apologies for their late reporting of it. It has resulted in some outrage though not what you might expect in other countries because of the fear of painting all with a broad brush.

I have only ever lived in southern Germany. I am no expert but have on several occasions had instruction courses on rape as it relates to Germany.
What I was taught was that it has always been viewed as a foreign crime.
From what I know, this is also proven to be true for almost all cases.
I was also taught that, usually, Germans saw rape as as bad as murder, or nearly so.
Maybe you as a native German can shed some light on this?

[Fragony]

The unnoficial press caught up soon enough here. But isn't all too obvious, you can haul someone out of the desert but you can't take out the desert. The west is too confusing 'I cannots touchies? wtf?' These people just don't belong here.

[Greyblades]

We don't like to admit it, but we live in a rape culture.

No we dont.

You might, I cant speak for greece after all, but here we are so rabidly anti rape even an false claim will destory the life of a suspected perpritrator even after it is debunked.

[Montmorency]

No we dont.

You might, I cant speak for greece after all, but here we are so rabidly anti rape even an false claim will destory the life of a suspected perpritrator even after it is debunked.

This doesn't speak against the existence of a rape culture; it speaks for the existence of a broad undercurrent in social justice activist thought and practice that sees public shaming as a primary vehicle of effecting change and feels vindication through the 'correction' of individual instances as a buildup to institutional change. The Internet enables this, as well as a more general 'outrage first, questions later' attitude.


By the by, if whatever happened over New Years was constituted and organized by long-standing Muslim residents and citizens, or even refugees from North Africa (as opposed to the recent influx), then all the more reason to do well by the Asian Muslims and Syrians who are freshly arrived. If they understand it as "Europeans are our countrymen", then they are less likely, even where remaining poor and marginalized, to fall under the influence of troublemakers, criminals, and fifth columns.

[Viking]

This doesn't speak against the existence of a rape culture; it speaks for the existence of a broad undercurrent in social justice activist thought and practice that sees public shaming as a primary vehicle of effecting change and feels vindication through the 'correction' of individual instances as a buildup to institutional change. The Internet enables this, as well as a more general 'outrage first, questions later' attitude.

How do you publicly shame someone for Xing in an X culture? Does the culture suffer from a lack of self-confidence? Are you referring to a subculture within a larger culture?

[CrossLOPER]

How do you publicly shame someone for Xing in an X culture? Does the culture suffer from a lack of self-confidence? Are you referring to a subculture within a larger culture?

Don't think about it too hard; he certainly didn't.

I am not good at English

You've only been using it for at least 15 years, so I don't know how you can be any good. He's not using "big words" to scare you off.

[Fragony]

It's ok to be ok in English, I can manage. I make mistakes, so what.

[Myth]

So, any new rapes in Germany lately?