IMMIGRATION thread

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

See - that except tells me something very different.

She doesn't know there's a difference between a North African and a Levantine.

Notably, the report from the German authorities identified a majority of North Africans, not "North Africans and Arabs" as many news sources have been suggesting.

And who calls a 14 year old girl "Ms"?

I think the truth is that Merkel was simply unprepared for the influx and is unprepared to make hard choices. As you note, she is not ready to spend her personal political capital to protect even her own people until forced. Meanwhile, that unspent capital is depreciating as the Contient slides towards a real atrocity - Cologne has brought Germany many steps closer to a Pogrom against Arabs.

It will be a sad irony if a fear of repeating the past actually results in exactly that, repetition of pasts sins. Before you label me Melodramatic consider that a few weeks ago what happened on New Year's Eve was unthinkable.

[Montmorency]

I think the truth is that Merkel was simply unprepared for the influx and is unprepared to make hard choices.

Rather the opposite: Merkel understood that Germany and Europe were unprepared for the migrants unless they immediately somehow united to fund and enforce a Trumpian security regime around the entire Mediterranean underbelly, and she took a big risk by acknowledging it and moving events in a direction that would benefit Germany, or at least prove least harmful.

Remember that when you are facing millions of migrants - remember back to all your lessons from Medieval and ancient history - you either throw them back by the strength of your arms, or you let them pass.

consider that a few weeks ago what happened on New Year's Eve was unthinkable.

The event itself was trivial. What mattered (and still does) was the reaction.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Rather the opposite: Merkel understood that Germany and Europe were unprepared for the migrants unless they immediately somehow united to fund and enforce a Trumpian security regime around the entire Mediterranean underbelly, and she took a big risk by acknowledging it and moving events in a direction that would benefit Germany, or at least prove least harmful.

So she deliberately created the current situation and resulting abuses?

I don't understand what you're saying here.

That concerted joint action was necessary was as obvious as it was impossible.

Remember that when you are facing millions of migrants - remember back to all your lessons from Medieval and ancient history - you either throw them back by the strength of your arms, or you let them pass.

More properly, you throw them back or you submit to them. Peoples have never simple "passed through". Migration continues until the onward pressure abates - so if you "let the migrants pass" they stop and settle.

At that point you either subjugate them, integrate them or submit to them.

The event itself was trivial. What mattered (and still does) was the reaction.

Neither the assaults nor the abject failure of the German Police were trivial. I like to think of myself as a hard man but even I would say that several hundred women being assaulted in public is nothing but a national disgrace.

The reaction has been mostly apathy from the German Establishment, some talk of tightening Asylum rules but that's basically it - the German people are currently vacillating between committing an ethnic cleansing and adopting a battered wife attitude.

What we are seeing is the Liberal "heart" of the EU in France, Germany and Scandinavia swinging to the Right. What hasn't been picked up on yet is that, particularly in Germany, people are starting to move to the Right of the UK.

[Montmorency]

That concerted joint action was necessary was as obvious as it was impossible.

So she deliberately created the current situation and resulting abuses?

I don't understand what you're saying here.

I'm saying she saw the first so she took actions that would lead sooner rather than later to questions of regional policy to a head.

At that point you either subjugate them, integrate them or submit to them.

A view not held by most contemporary historians; what you call integration they consider mutual assimilation, since typically the major changes affected those at the top of the political structure most immediately and significantly. Strip it to the barest essentials and you just have the dichotomy I gave.

What we are seeing is the Liberal "heart" of the EU in France, Germany and Scandinavia swinging to the Right. What hasn't been picked up on yet is that, particularly in Germany, people are starting to move to the Right of the UK.

That is indeed one of the elements in the European challenge Merkel brings to the fore. If she succeeds, she can fracture or at least stabilize right-wing populism in Europe. If she fails then she opens yet another vulnerability in the system for them to leverage.


Note that this isn't to express utmost confidence in Merkel. Her trademark is in dealing decisively with 'fresh' political pressures with a payoff achieved in the short-term, say within one year at most. Looking at her record, there's no evidence in particular that she can manage a long-term investment with continuous and active (especially public) management. Notably, she has always struggled to align the various strands of policy issues into a coherent synthesis, though that is what she seems to be approaching now.

But whatever you think of her tack (sic), or of her Central-Europeanism, it is clear that something like her is what we have been asking for. How long have we been crying for want of strategic direction in Europe? A democratic society in disarray always calls for a quasi-autocratic visionary, the very thing it tends to fear most. If she does get this right, she could be as great as FDR, the strong hand sweeping away the burden of fear and despotism.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

If Merkel is our hope I think we're doomed - not least because if she manages to unite Europe it can only be by the use of hard economic power.

Oppression of subject peoples leads inevitably to systemic collapse of the state or war.

Democracy is our only hope for any kind of lasting peace.

Merkel is not Augustus, she can't manage despotism cloaked in popular democracy and she isn't brave enough to try. She might be egotistical enough though.

[Gilrandir]

And who calls a 14 year old girl "Ms"?

Those who call the married woman (Merkel) the same (see the piece from the FT).

[AE Bravo]

Nice to see the backroom still all about the "brown people creeeping up on us."

Immigrationroom imo.

[Beskar]

Those who call the married woman (Merkel) the same (see the piece from the FT).

Ms is a title for a female which doesn't reflect their married status. Thus, a marriage-neutral term, and it was used correctly in both circumstances. PFH was probably referring to the fact a 14-yr old cannot be married, and should be "Miss" anyway.

[Sarmatian]

Merkel is not Augustus, she can't manage despotism cloaked in popular democracy and she isn't brave enough to try. She might be egotistical enough though.

The answer is suggesting itself.

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