Bird mafia [Concluded]

[Zack]

why is winston still alive?

[Beskar]

why is winston still alive?

Why was atheotes killed of all people?

Being honest, I was expecting it to be me or you. For that whole "Beskar is scum!" "Zack is scum!" routine for the round.

I don't think it is Double A or Pelican, far too inactive. Plus, if it was them, and it was random night kills, then I think post-game, birds win by default in my book.

[GeneralHankerchief]

I don't think it is Double A or Pelican, far too inactive.

I agree in that it's probably not both of them, but it could be one of them and then somebody more active.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Vote: khaan

[GeneralHankerchief]

Zack why do you have khaan listed as lean town in your reads post from last page?

[Zack]

I think it's weird you would insist pelican/aa are town when the kills seem pretty random to me

Zack why do you have khaan listed as lean town in your reads post from last page?

idk seems similar to how he played in mafia v cult. I haven't done a thorough analysis or anything

[Beskar]

Vote: khaan

Why 'khaan? Not that I disagree, I have a gut feeling on him, but I am interested in your reasoning.

Either way, he should speak up. vote: 'khaan.

[Beskar]

I think it's weird you would insist pelican/aa are town when the kills seem pretty random to me

Because if it is random kills due to inactivity, I fundamentally disagree with that concept. No point trying to lynch people who are not even going to read the thread, regardless of random kills or not, it simply isn't fun.

idk seems similar to how he played in mafia v cult. I haven't done a thorough analysis or anything

He was more active in that game as town. He is more similar to Rise of the Snake Cult where he plays more inactively as Mafia.

[GeneralHankerchief]

No reason, it's a prod on him more than anything else. But out of our lesser posters I think he's the most likely to respond to it.

[Winston Hughes]

vote: Zack

Should have killed me.

[Winston Hughes]

GH and Beskar his partners.

[GeneralHankerchief]

So of the four most active people in the game, three of them are allied against the last one?

[Winston Hughes]

Yup.

[Winston Hughes]

Don't worry, though. The chances of anyone believing me are minimal. Game's close to locked for you at this stage.

[BSmith]

Kiwikhaan – Nothing specific in thread, but I do find Beskar’s analysis on his playstyle intriguing. Would like to know more about why others are voting for him today though.
BirdSmith – 100% lock clear – at least from my perspective.
Resplendent quetzack – The whole beskar v. zack spat still has the air of town v. town, but after a re-read of the thread there are some things that rub me wronger about zack – mainly that the reactions seem a little overdone. Zack is known to get righteous at times and take easy offence to the “wrong” reasons to suspect him, but he seems a little over the top. That and the several joking type references about being scum* (or that are certainly borderline and would be the type of thing a confident scummer would post as a taunt) lend me to double think my earlier town reading on Zack.
Pelican – frankly I’ve got nothing one way or the other on Pelican.
edseedsnipe – Same with pelican. Mainly tallies and one funny post in response to Winston being tired. No real read here either.
Winstone-curlew – I actually feel Winston is town, mainly because of the tone of his posting – it seems carefree and unforced. Like someone who doesn’t have a lot of time, doesn’t really care about how he comes across, and is just having fun. None of these are particularly scummy traits.
General Hawkerchief – Active in the discussions, seems to be positively contributing and encouraging discussion. Yet for all of that I don’t have a lean one way or the other. I can see him going either way. I do feel that he is being up front about his perspectives on other player’s posting styles and habits.
Besrakar – As I described above, I get a town vibe from Beskar. Large part of this though is GH’s “vouching” for his playstyle. More comfortable coming to terms with him being town vs. zack as described above.
Doubleday's hummingbird – No real read one way or the other with AA either.

Bottom line – I am leaning Zack or Khaan, but I am certainly open to persuasion either way.

Also – is the day really only 24 hours?




*Examples of Zack posts that could be hidden in plain sight references:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

0 gold says it's not.

Instead of choosing one of the bandwagons, I think I'll just keep my throwaway vote on GH for now. This does not make scum. In fact, this is so transparently scummy, the only reasonable conclusion is that I must be town. QED.

[GeneralHankerchief]

This seems like you're deliberately holding back from committing. Two people have voted khaan for so far and we've both followed it up with reasons.

[Zack]

Vote: BSmith

[BSmith]

This seems like you're deliberately holding back from committing. Two people have voted khaan for so far and we've both followed it up with reasons.

…and those reasons are “no reason” and “gut feeling”. Both about as thin as one can go and even attempt to call it a reason.

I am holding back because I don’t have a strong feeling in any particular direction, save perhaps away from Winston and Beskar – but to be honest if a compelling case was to be made on one them I’d at least consider it. I lean harder towards Khaan and Zack as I described above. I don’t see a need at this time to add another vote to the Khaan wagon and I’m still on the fence about Zack. So yeah. Other than putting a random vote on someone else in an attempt to “pressure” them I don’t have many good options. I’d rather hold back and see how the conversation develops before formally putting in a vote. But it is not like you don’t know what I am currently thinking about everyone.

[BSmith]

Vote: BSmith

Scratch that. No longer on the fence about Vote: Zack

[Zack]

Scratch that. No longer on the fence about Vote: Zack

BSmith is known to get righteous at times and take easy offence to the “wrong” reasons to suspect him, but he seems a little over the top.

[Beskar]

Your turn with a bout with Zack, BSmith.

Now I am tired and heading to bed, up at 6am and out all day tomorrow. If there is a new development that I should consider, ping me with with a [.mention]Beskar[./mention] and I will attempt to see it before the round is over.

[seireikhaan]

Meh. Yeah idk, I've not really had it in me this game, sorry.

Vote: Bsmith For a long-ish post of little real substance that ends with him just waffling and asking people to tell him what to do.

[Double A]

Time Warner keeps living up to my expectations, so I haven't had stable Internet this week. Sorry Pizzaman.

Anyway, I think Winston's town due to his defeatist mood. Leaning Beskar for scum so vote: Beskar

[Zack]

Kiwikhaan – Nothing specific in thread, but I do find Beskar’s analysis on his playstyle intriguing. Would like to know more about why others are voting for him today though.

keep in mind this is one of bsmith's two strongest reads

a townie sees scum behind every corner. a mafia sees town everywhere. BSmith has decided to make noncommittal accusations against townies while town-reading his teammates. (Assuming khaan is town, because if him and bsmith were partners, bsmith wouldn't hesitate to jump on the wagon to bus him). I assume the reason bsmith isn't voting khaan is because at least one mafia already is (GH and/or Beskar).

Something interesting. Last night GH said:

I did suspect Al Sips until about two hours ago when Pizza posted the lynch. Beyond that I think our scum is some combination of BSmith, one or two of our inactive players, and maybe atheotes.

atheotes shows up dead, and gh places an unexplained vote for khaan (and yes i realize he came in later to say "force divided by area vote" which is the same as admitting there's no reason), who he did not indicate any suspicion towards. Only thing giving me pause is that the whole thing -- calling half the players town and only fingering inactives plus atheotes/bsmith as targets (about as noncontroversial as you could possibly be), then killing atheotes... seems inexplicably lazy/sloppy if he is scum.

BSmith said:

As scum I will shy away from making a decisive vote. I do feel that you and Beskar are both town. (and really, what are the chances you rand scum three times in a row?)

Notice how he has shied away from making a decisive vote today. Also notice how he strongly felt I was town, even throwing in a meaningless statistic to bolster his claim, then comes in today and immediately calls me one of his top two suspects. Quite the turnaround for being based on nothing that happened between those two reads. His reads on gh and beskar are pretty fluffy too. Actually, all his reads are -- the only one he seemed to put any effort into was mine, which is weird for someone he insisted was town more than once yesterday. Almost like he was looking for someone to give him a reason to vote me (which I obliged), and was never truly interested in voting khaan, but he didn't want to be the one to make the big push to save khaan. Look at his khaan read again, he even admits that he has no real reason to suspect him, but still throws him in as a top suspect because that's what impeccable townies gh and beskar are doing (and if him and khaan are partners, voicing suspicion of your teammate without actually voting them is a classic scum tactic, I have a bad habit of using it all the time).

So to conclude, I think BSmith is definitely scum. Likeliest partners are khaan, beskar, inactives... sigh, idk could be anyone really.

Looking at yesterday's wagons:

I still have a bad feeling that Al Sipsclar was a scum-wagon.

Beskar wagon had a dead townie, me (100% town), and winston (my strongest town read other than myself) on it. Coincidence that the al sips wagon was filled with scum and beskar wagon with town? This leading question indicates that isn't the case.

Zack wagon had a dead townie and khaan (winston was the one who drove it however). Think beskar was on it at some point. Definitely less scummy to be on than the al sips one.

Pretty much seems that people jumped on al sips to save beskar. iirc GH prodded beskar to go that direction fwiw.

[Zack]

Missed in the last post - I mentioned that:

voicing suspicion of your teammate without actually voting them is a classic scum tactic, I have a bad habit of using it all the time

but failed to point out that GH voiced suspicion of bsmith (immediately after I had done so) but has not followed it up today, instead going after khaan for some reason and even trying to get bsmith to join him. Weird way to treat your only suspect that isn't inactive.

[Beskar]

I was suspicious of BSmith last night, I think Khan is being honest, unvote;vote:BSmith.

(Limited access, at a conference)

[Beskar]

GH is generally a hard read and he has been doing the wise sage role in this game. Only times I had a strong scent of scum in the past is when he getting lynched on Day 1 and plays really hardball like in Snake Cult and Subotans China game, both times redirecting lynch on me.
It could be that GH is scum, he does have a key advantage in that scenario to make friends with victimised townies, I've: me and Zack last day phase, which he could use to buy street cred which can be exploited. Who would you rather side with? aggressive Zack, or friendly GH? Also being Gameroom mod, he might go for random kills or go for inactive-ish players like ath, which one of ath's scum tells funnily enough. I am going to lean on him being on the scum side. Also, his vote on Khaan could be to try to direct me down that path, then Khaan comes out as town, he can begin turning votes around on me. Something he is more than capable of doing.

My gut says Khaan is being honest as the usual excuse for inactivity is being busy, Khaan is quite active, and what struck me was that he simply outright said "sorry, I am not into this game" which twigged me as being usual for him, as usually getting called out usually results in a reply defending or accusation.

Going to keep vote on BSmith, were good points raised by Zack and they need addressing.

[GeneralHankerchief]

I think you're reading into it a little too much. I'm simply calling it as I see it, not trying to collect sympathy favors from people in order to cash in on them later on. I have a town read on Zack right now, but if something changes and I think he's scum later on, I'm not going to keep him alive just because he might be more likely to vote with me. I'm going to try to get him lynched.

[Beskar]

What is your thoughts on 'Khaan? He replied and you know him better as a person.

[BSmith]

keep in mind this is one of bsmith's two strongest reads

a townie sees scum behind every corner. a mafia sees town everywhere. BSmith has decided to make noncommittal accusations against townies while town-reading his teammates. (Assuming khaan is town, because if him and bsmith were partners, bsmith wouldn't hesitate to jump on the wagon to bus him). I assume the reason bsmith isn't voting khaan is because at least one mafia already is (GH and/or Beskar).

Something interesting. Last night GH said:


atheotes shows up dead, and gh places an unexplained vote for khaan (and yes i realize he came in later to say "force divided by area vote" which is the same as admitting there's no reason), who he did not indicate any suspicion towards. Only thing giving me pause is that the whole thing -- calling half the players town and only fingering inactives plus atheotes/bsmith as targets (about as noncontroversial as you could possibly be), then killing atheotes... seems inexplicably lazy/sloppy if he is scum.

BSmith said:


Notice how he has shied away from making a decisive vote today. Also notice how he strongly felt I was town, even throwing in a meaningless statistic to bolster his claim, then comes in today and immediately calls me one of his top two suspects. Quite the turnaround for being based on nothing that happened between those two reads. His reads on gh and beskar are pretty fluffy too. Actually, all his reads are -- the only one he seemed to put any effort into was mine, which is weird for someone he insisted was town more than once yesterday. Almost like he was looking for someone to give him a reason to vote me (which I obliged), and was never truly interested in voting khaan, but he didn't want to be the one to make the big push to save khaan. Look at his khaan read again, he even admits that he has no real reason to suspect him, but still throws him in as a top suspect because that's what impeccable townies gh and beskar are doing (and if him and khaan are partners, voicing suspicion of your teammate without actually voting them is a classic scum tactic, I have a bad habit of using it all the time).

So to conclude, I think BSmith is definitely scum. Likeliest partners are khaan, beskar, inactives... sigh, idk could be anyone really.

Looking at yesterday's wagons:

I still have a bad feeling that Al Sipsclar was a scum-wagon.

Beskar wagon had a dead townie, me (100% town), and winston (my strongest town read other than myself) on it. Coincidence that the al sips wagon was filled with scum and beskar wagon with town? This leading question indicates that isn't the case.

Zack wagon had a dead townie and khaan (winston was the one who drove it however). Think beskar was on it at some point. Definitely less scummy to be on than the al sips one.

Pretty much seems that people jumped on al sips to save beskar. iirc GH prodded beskar to go that direction fwiw.

To be clear I have made non-committal accusations against everyone except for the two that I explained why I was getting town leans. Everyone else could certainly be scum (hell even those two could be). I am hardly clearing anyone. I am a vanilla townie in a game with no private networking and so far no reveals of any information from any potential power roles and no dead mafia yet. The only thing I have to go off of is the 4 people talking in the thread. Is it any wonder that I have the most to go on with you Zack? You being the highest poster in game means the most material to react to.

I never had you lock town. I said that I felt that the spat between you and Beskar felt like town v. town to me. After re-reading the thread a narrative formed in my mind where you could be scum, and that is what I outlined.

I didn’t accuse Khaan hard. I said I leant towards him being scum mainly on other’s reactions. I also wasn’t fully convinced of my own narrative on you, which is why I held off on voting. It’s not like I wasn’t going to have another chance before the end of day to actually register a vote. It’s also not like I hadn’t just laid out what I was thinking on every single player – an exercise that would be good for everyone to do, by the way.

Literally anyone at this point could be scum but frankly I have nothing solid on anyone.

And come on. When have you known me to be so careless on buddying up to my partners? I am much more likely to bus early and often than to make bold saving moves and buddy-buddy up in thread with my partners.

Your argument against me seems compelling at first blush, but frankly it relies entirely on speculation on your behalf as well as a revisionist perspective on past events to fit that narrative. You take things that happened and extrapolate them to their extremes, or exaggerate the point to inflate your point of view.

It also comes from the conflicting point of view that townies must be decisive with no information yet scum are not with full information. While there are certainly tendencies in reactions by scum on how they handle the information they have, this is certainly never a lock solid case.

To reiterate – I am Vanilla town, and your case against me feels like you are trying to make a specific narrative fit rather than a natural conclusion to the in thread facts.

It would certainly be more helpful if the lower posters started posting more though.