Futuramafia [Concluded]

[GeneralHankerchief]

Unaltered role PM below spoiler.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Alright, here's the battle plan: We shoot, they surrender, we go aboard, somebody does some clamping, then we heist the cigars and go home.





Donbot

Player: GeneralHankerchief

Role: Donbot (https://theinfosphere.org/Donbot)

Faction: TOWN


Team Victory Conditions:

The Town achieves victory based on its ability to achieve the goals listed below.

- The Mafia are eliminated.

- All hostile Third Parties are eliminated.

- At least one member of the Town survives the game.


Abilities:

Make 'em sweat (Jailkeeper). At night, throw another player in a dark room with no exit. They cannot carry out a night action, nor can they be killed.


-----


If you have any questions, ask me privately.

[Dp101]

Can you be more specific?

Your lynch positions are generally where I would expect mafia to end up. I will elaborate more when I get on a laptop. Your cases don't feel that definite or well defined, but I can understand having trouble making them so I will let it slide for now.

[Dp101]

Oh, also, I want to frame that post of pure praise you directed towards me. I still don't know why you think I'm confident, but thanks for the endorsement.

[Winston Hughes]

Your lynch positions are generally where I would expect mafia to end up. I will elaborate more when I get on a laptop. Your cases don't feel that definite or well defined, but I can understand having trouble making them so I will let it slide for now.

Yeah, I'm not letting it slide.

Feels like I've been around the top of your scum pile for some time - and last night you were all about setting me up for today's lynch if Stork came back town - but you've never made any real attempt to push me.

[Winston Hughes]

Have you targeted me, GH?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Vote: Murska

[Dp101]

Yeah, I'm not letting it slide.

Feels like I've been around the top of your scum pile for some time - and last night you were all about setting me up for today's lynch if Stork came back town - but you've never made any real attempt to push me.

Seems fair, again, once I have a proper keyboard I will try and make a proper case that amounts to more than vague reads.

[Dp101]

Also, you have not been on top for very long. I have had vague suspicions of you earlier, but I don't think I end up actually wanting to vote you until midway through day 3.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Have you targeted me, GH?

I'm not disclosing anything about my actions at this time.

[Dp101]

I'm not disclosing anything about my actions at this time.

Will there be a time when you do? Hard to prove you are indeed the roleblocker if you don't have a record of what you did. Of course you could also be mafia with pizza and came up with this in order to make his roleclaim look good, but that is probably tinfoil territory.

[Montmorency]

Hold up.

We have 4 dead town roles, one dead third party, one living claimed third party, and 2 living claimed town roles. Including the speculation on Choxorn, that would make 8 or 9 roles in a 22-player game. This is the absolute limit I am willing to countenance: 8 roles.

I don't like it, GH. Besides the superficial unease generated by your character, a jailer - roleblock/protect - is an exceedingly difficult role to demonstrate, and in a game in which the course of night actions is not written up...

I'm not voting you now only because making that claim as you did would be a terrible unsolicited move from scum.

___

Riedquat, so if I have that role PM correct, you can only protect once in the game? So by now all you have left is Kleptomania? Please use it on GH tonight. GH, keep Pizza.

[Montmorency]

Yes, I have to rebuild the case on Pizza. That vote isn't flying for the moment.

Unvote: Pizza

[Askthepizzaguy]

Just a hard unvote, no secondary suspect?

[Montmorency]

I could have just voted Winston, but I'm going to look at everything again synthetically. I think much of this will ride on who your partners are might be.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I dunno why you're even bothering to remove your vote from me. This tunnel has no turns.

[novice]

6 spaceman98 (Visor, Cuthillius, Montmorency, GeneralHankerchief, CrimsonFox, El Barto)

4 BSmith (spaceman98, Dp101, seireikhaan, Al Sipsclar)
4 CrimsonFox (BSmith, Pelican, atheotes, Choxorn)
4 El Barto (Riedquat, Newyn, Winston Hughes, Stork)

2 Cuthillius (Askthepizzaguy, Murska)

1 GeneralHankerchief (novice)
1 Winston Hughes (johnhughthom)

1 Not Voting: El Barto
End of Day one

--------------------------------------
6 BSmith (novice, Stork, Generalhankerchief, Cuthillius, Dp101, Askthepizzaguy)

3 novice (Visor, atheotes, BSmith)

2 Riedquat (Montmorency, Winston Hughes)

1 Choxorn (Al Sipsclar)
1 CrimsonFox (khaan)
1 Montmorency (Pelican)
1 seireikhaan (CrimsonFox)
1 Visor (Murska)
1 Winston Hughes (johnhughthom)

3 Not Voting: Choxorn, Newyn, Riedquat
End of Day Two.

----------------------------------------------
9 Stork (novice, cuthillius, dp101, Winston, johnhughthom, Askthepizzaguy, choxorn, Newyn, al sipsclar)

5 Askthepizzaguy (montmorency, pelican, riedquat, murska, Stork)

2 novice (atheotes, generalhankerchief)

End of Day Three.

I said I'd get back to it, so:

Day 2 initially looks like you can't get much out of it because there was only 1 major candidate, but IIRC Novice was a very close second place for much of the day leading up to deadline, but there were some last second switches that turned the vote as lopsided as it appears.

This is true, of course. From my perspective I know it was between two villagers and Riedquat, so the mafia probably didn't really care all that much who swung. In these town on town CFD situations I think the late switchers are more likely to be townies than scummies, since the switching tends to attract scrutiny.

[Dp101]

Well, dammit. I went back and looked at Winston's posts, and I realised that I really can't figure out why I thought he was mafia. I mean, his votes seem scummy because of the way he has avoided getting in on the big wagons unless it is someone important like Stork going down, but given that all we have lynched is town so far that accusation could be placed upon anyone. My mafia reads of him must have come before I realised that I must have been working with a bunch of mafia and changed my reads around a bit, and I must have just unconsciously kept up that same suspicion. Since I really can't come up with a better case than tone, and tone reads really aren't that critical at this stage, I think I need to go find another target. Sorry for wasting your time with accusations.

[Montmorency]

Alive: 14

Al Sipsclar
Askthepizzaguy
atheotes
Choxorn
Cuthillius
Dp101
GeneralHankerchief
johnhughthom
Montmorency
Murska
novice
Pelican
Riedquat
Winston Hughes

---

Lynched: 3

d1 - spaceman98 - Leela
d2 - BSmith - Amy (can talk)
d3 - Stork - Professor Farnsworth

---

Killed: 5

n1 - El Barto - Flexo (can talk)
n2 - Visor - Hermes
n2 - seireikhaan - Larry
d3 - CrimsonFox - Zapp Brannigan
n3 - Newyn - Linda

Let's start with basics - a headcount:

Good

Riedquat
Montmorency

Prepared for Disappointment

GeneralH
DP101
Novice

Bad

ATPG
Winston
Cuthilius
Pelican
Murska



JHT
Al Sipsclar
Choxorn
Atheotes


Next, scum-team fundamentals: are there 2 or 3 left?

3 total Mafia has been the dominant assumption so far, and it's only gotten more so as the game has gone on. However, with so many roles floating around, I think a 4th (for practical purposes, 3rd) scum becomes much likelier in the setup. If we take that, then perhaps the earlier wagons make more sense - scum has had the manpower to follow a strategy of avoiding concentrations.


Next posts will be vote analysis plus team arrangements. I will speculate on what it would look like for one of the 'unknown' category to be scum.

[Riedquat]

Riedquat, so if I have that role PM correct, you can only protect once in the game? So by now all you have left is Kleptomania? Please use it on GH tonight. GH, keep Pizza.

I don't know if it will activate again when I scan another robot or person of interest to me, but for the time being yes kleptomania is always usable and I guess if my target can kill the result will be like CrimsonFox, a threat to my survival.

[Cuthillius]

ugh

i don't like either of those claims

but who else

beh

[Cuthillius]

i mean given that one of the more active people is probably scum, we're left with... winston? novice?

i think winston's been towny

novice has been really average the last phase or two

[novice]

As Town I'd expect the following thought process: "I think Stork is being pushed by mafia here. The counterwagon is ATPG, pushed by Towny folk." At this point there's a split - if you have time, you'll go "I'll analyze the Stork wagon to maybe find mafia there, put up a case to try and push them instead." If you're busy you'll go "I'll follow the people I think are Town on ATPG, though voice my concerns about the lack of other targets."

Agree with this criticism of GH.

I have Riedquat as lock town (there's no way mafia!Riedquat ever, ever makes those series of posts against CrimsonFox)

Riedquat: No way he's not town.

Specifically, he claims Neutral Survivor.

Yeah, he's not town, he's neutral at best.

I still think the case on Pizza is incredibly strong, so I'll go ahead and vote:Pizza again today. For the time being, this is where my focus is, and it will likely remain here until Pizza is lynched or the case is satisfactorily refuted. As it is, I don't think my primary arguments (Pizza's haphazard voting for every leading wagon on the day of BSmith's lynch and his halfhearted Choxorn vote + token analysis + misplaced piling on against Stork yesterday) have been refuted.

You think scum is prone to haphazardly vote for every leading wagon?

[novice]

novice has been really average the last phase or two

Is that an improvement or a turn for the worse?

[Montmorency]

You think scum is prone to haphazardly vote for every leading wagon?

Wasn't haphazard. For your wagon specifically, I had it pegged that the BSmith CFD was a maneuver designed to both credibly threaten you and then 'rescue' you. This would create a beneficial Stockholm effect causing you to gain a favorable perspective on Pizza's actions.

[novice]

Wasn't haphazard. For your wagon specifically, I had it pegged that the BSmith CFD was a maneuver designed to both credibly threaten you and then 'rescue' you. This would create a beneficial Stockholm effect causing you to gain a favorable perspective on Pizza's actions.

Haphazard was Pelican's choice of words, of course. Anyway, that is an interesting theory. Moreover, it's an interesting kind of theory. :)

[Askthepizzaguy]

ATPG
Winston
Cuthilius
Pelican
Murska

If you say the above people are bad, you might want to try pushing on them.

Oh, wait.

[Montmorency]

Oh, wait.

Correct. That's what I've been doing. Now let me finish my study.

[Cuthillius]

ATPG
Winston
Cuthilius
Pelican
Murska

If you say the above people are bad, you might want to try pushing on them.

Oh, wait.

what are you trying to say with this post

[Cuthillius]

meh

vote:novice

right now i don't feel like you want to win

you rarely discuss important parts of the game and tend towards nitpicking and calling people out on insignificant things

i think you might easily be mafia

i sheeped Pizza onto bsmith and kinda regret it more and more

[Dp101]

what are you trying to say with this post

He is probably annoyed at me withdrawing my accusations of Winston after I realised that I didn't have a case.