Ukraine Thread

[Sarmatian]

Montenegro officials claim Russia was behind the attempted coup. Some of the coup squad have martial experience in Donbas.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/...tempt-43339075

I don't bother to check if your statements are true anymore, but I can tell you this is bollox without having to check.

[Montmorency]

I don't bother to check if your statements are true anymore, but I can tell you this is bollox without having to check.

Which one, that Montenegro officials claim something, or that their claim is correct? How can you tell it's bollox, for my sake?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I find myself underwhelmed.

This coup attempt, if these details are even vaguely correct, was amateurish at best. I think if the Montenegrans were making this up whole cloth as leverage in internal politics, then the plot would be a lot more 'threatening.' I could devise better. In fact, when playing D&D, I did.

Yet if we accept the story as true, what does Russia have to do with it? Some Serbs have felt a kinship with Russia for centuries now. Why would we be surprised that some Serbs chose to go and "see the elephant" by fighting for a Pro-Russian militia? In my own Civil War, a number of our Irish volunteers in the Army of the Potomac spoke only Gaelic when they arrived. Foreign born volunteers are scarcely rare. The Brits did not blame us when some of them went home and joined the Fenians in 1867.

This is hardly conclusive evidence for a Russian backed plot for Serb domination of the Balkans. If there were such a plot hatched by Russia -- led by ex KGB folk -- I suspect it would be better funded, organized, planned, and led then this shocking cock-up.

[Gilrandir]

I don't bother to check if your statements are true anymore, but I can tell you this is bollox without having to check.

Offer your reading of the event and we will consider how plausible it is.

Which one, that Montenegro officials claim something, or that their claim is correct? How can you tell it's bollox, for my sake?

There are two reasons why Sarmatian considers it bollox:
1. It was linked by me (never mind that it was not MY claim).
2. It implicates Russia.

Yet if we accept the story as true, what does Russia have to do with it?

Russia is the one who voiced its dissatisfaction with Montenegro joining NATO.

This is hardly conclusive evidence for a Russian backed plot for Serb domination of the Balkans. If there were such a plot hatched by Russia -- led by ex KGB folk -- I suspect it would be better funded, organized, planned, and led then this shocking cock-up.

The evidence is far from being conclusive - yet Russia said the same about its participation in the Crimea operation, MH17 and the Donbas wild goose chase. Who knows what facts will surface sooner or later.

Moreover, we sometimes tend to overestimate things, including the might of Russian special services. Even if they put their mind into it there is some/fat/slim (choose to your liking) chance that the plot can go wrong - the way it was with the so-called "Russian spring". Let's suppose they outsourced their coup hoping it would be too easy to bother overtaxing themselves.

[Sarmatian]

Which one, that Montenegro officials claim something, or that their claim is correct? How can you tell it's bollox, for my sake?

Because it is a tried and true method of current Montenegro strongman to portray himself as a defender of Montenegro against foreign interest and/or plots.

It's a tactic he's been employing with varying success for the last 2.5 decades of his rule. No one usually pays attention, but now the story was picked up by some because it involves Russia.

The basis of the current opposition also has been formed a long time ago, early 2000's, at the time when Russia couldn't have possibly had power/funds/means to influence it.

Is it possible that Russia sent some funds to the opposition? Yes, I wouldn't rule it out, but to say that Russia controls the opposition or is organizing coups is silly.

This is hardly conclusive evidence for a Russian backed plot for Serb domination of the Balkans.

Interestingly, the current narrative of historically strong Russian/Serbian relationship isn't really justified. Serbia was never Russian first choice. Actually, Bulgarians were Russian favourites. Serbs were, correctly or incorrectly, seen as being under too much western influence, even in the 19th century.

Not really related to the talk at hand, just thought it could be interesting.

[Gilrandir]

Because it is a tried and true method of current Montenegro strongman to portray himself as a defender of Montenegro against foreign interest and/or plots.

It's a tactic he's been employing with varying success for the last 2.5 decades of his rule. No one usually pays attention, but now the story was picked up by some because it involves Russia.

The basis of the current opposition also has been formed a long time ago, early 2000's, at the time when Russia couldn't have possibly had power/funds/means to influence it.

Is it possible that Russia sent some funds to the opposition? Yes, I wouldn't rule it out, but to say that Russia controls the opposition or is organizing coups is silly.

It is also silly to think that Russia doesn't mind Montenegro joining NATO. And by now we know what Russia can do if it wants to prevent a country from joining NATO.

More details on Surkovleaks:
https://medium.com/dfrlab/breaking-d...3cb#.jzmq2bvrh

[Sarmatian]

It is also silly to think that Russia doesn't mind Montenegro joining NATO. And by now we know what Russia can do if it wants to prevent a country from joining NATO.

Russian political elite perceives NATO as an unfriendly alliance. In that light, it obviously minds anything involving NATO. That doesn't mean they're gonna execute coups willy nilly all around the world.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Russian political elite perceives NATO as an unfriendly alliance. In that light, it obviously minds anything involving NATO. That doesn't mean they're gonna execute coups willy nilly all around the world.

My thoughts exactly. And this effort was willy-nilly and poorly planned. Is it possible Russia abetted? Yes. But I deem it improbable.

[Montmorency]

Kudos to Sarmatian for a solid post.

It is also silly to think that Russia doesn't mind Montenegro joining NATO. And by now we know what Russia can do if it wants to prevent a country from joining NATO.

Let's recall the process of ways, means, and ends. Montenegro accession is a nice symbolic boost for America, but a very limited one. Also from a military perspective, Montenegro is a tiny country with a not-very-strategic position, and fewer resources and smaller population than the Baltic countries. Its military, though participating in the process (and having participated in various NATO programs in past years) is never going to amount to more than the gendarmerie of a small town. Russia, to voice its displeasure, has more tools closer at hand, in Syria, in Ukraine, Romania, Poland, the Balkans, Scandinavia, etc. for causing disruption, calling attention to itself, changing global perceptions...

It is deeply unlikely they ever had the resources for a coup in Montenegro, or that they could develop them within a year. Slightly likelier would be that they sponsored a disruptive 'suicide coup', but its hard to see how it furthers Russian interests in any respect, only costing Putin some of his hard-earned aura of canniness and further steeling European countries to guard against Russian machinations.

It's a bad idea to try to directly compare this to the Turkish coup attempt in the summer, so I'll simply urge a consideration of how much Russia could have had to play in that affair going by this attitude. It's not out of the realm of possibility, but it assumes so much in terms of unknown or unknowable secret resources, secret goals, secret actors, secret decisions, and secret communications that it verges on 'Aliens did it' for solid ground. That kind of speculation isn't worth the time unless you have something concrete to point out.