POTUS Election thread

[Montmorency]

We live in a strange world.

Not really. The reactions are quite predictable, even if the events less so.

With Hillary, for instance, enthusiasts resort to non-sequitur to defend her, while opponents grasp at straws to condemn her. After all that has happened so far I can't even claim an opinion on Hillary either way. I see no reason why she should be plumped for President, but on the other hand there's nothing missing - so why not? She's good enough for government work, at any rate.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Oddly enough, it may be as much of a product of St. Onge and Anthony Weiner.

1. The pay to play and hide the evidence e-mails revealed by wikileaks are having as much an impact as anything. The USA was not happy with her ethics before and this rubs many the wrong way, though some dismiss it as politics as usual.

2. It is not just that Comey's note was jarring, but that the source of the information was Weiner's computer. "Carlos Danger" has not covered himself with glory or done much to inspire confidence in his ability to NOT be blackmailed. And since the copies of the "private" server computer messages were on his computer.....


Odds still favor Clinton. Trump has to run the table on every toss up state AND the toss up district in Nebraska....or...take almost all of them and somehow steal PA or MI with low minority voter turnout and a strong showing by "Reagan democrats."

[HopAlongBunny]

I'm amazed.
I think a journalist nailed it months ago:

If you turn the process into a circus, you have to live with the fact that the clown might win.
(from memory; the journalist? I forget her name)

[edyzmedieval]

Honestly I can't wait for this to be over. The whole election process has been once big mud-slinging scandal contest, with each side accusing each other of so many illegal wrongdoings and unpalatable words/declarations.

Can't wait for this to be over.

[Kralizec]

"Carlos Danger"

That man is really something special. An intelligent guy, with good public speaking skills and enough charisma to go very far in politics. Important qualities that you'd want in someone whose job is advancing the goals of your party. Good material for a politician, regardless of wether you agree with his views or not. He had a promising career, and a wife that most men think is very attractive. And he blows it all by sending photo's of his genitals on his phone. Gets caught with it, and then does it again.

Bill Maher scorned him on his show because he managed to disgrace himself with a sex scandal that didn't even involve him having actual sex. Maher doesn't get the appeal of sexting and I don't either...maybe this particular scandal bothers me because it makes me feel old. Anthony Weiner certianly is more in touch with the younger generations

[HopAlongBunny]

Anthony Weiner certianly is more in touch with the younger generations

Perhaps, but that is also what he is under investigation for :p
In other news, injunction upheld against Trump's so-called poll-watchers:

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/...g-donald-trump

Too bad, when it comes to presenting facts, there is no "there" there.

[edyzmedieval]

64.5% 35.5%.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...ction-forecast

[Husar]

So is 538 the only one not biased or just plain off?

[Sarmatian]

So is 538 the only one not biased or just plain off?

It doesn't have to either of those. Electoral college system really complicates stuff. Florida and North Carolina are tightly contested but together have 44 electoral votes. If support changes for half a point, it may change who actually wins the elections. Remember Bush vs. Gore, where basically a couple of hundred of votes from Florida decided who was going to be the president.

[Hooahguy]

Traditionally I think 538 just uses a more conservative calculation. We will know who is more correct on Wednesday.

[edyzmedieval]

5:38 project leader went on public TV (I think) and mentioned that Hillary is literally one swing state away from losing the Electoral College.

So this will be very very close.

[Hooahguy]

Because of how close this might be it might mean that we see another Trump-esq candidate appear for the 2020 election. The alt-right wont be driven out of the GOP unless they lose decisively.

[edyzmedieval]

FBI has cleared Hillary Clinton of any wrongdoing with the emails.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/07/us...ald-trump.html

[Seamus Fermanagh]

It doesn't have to either of those. Electoral college system really complicates stuff. Florida and North Carolina are tightly contested but together have 44 electoral votes. If support changes for half a point, it may change who actually wins the elections. Remember Bush vs. Gore, where basically a couple of hundred of votes from Florida decided who was going to be the president.

Quite correct. Final recount showed a gap of well under 2k votes. Had only a few thousand persons who were TRUE left wingers voted Gore instead of Bush, then the 21st century would be a good bit different.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Because of how close this might be it might mean that we see another Trump-esq candidate appear for the 2020 election. The alt-right wont be driven out of the GOP unless they lose decisively.

They take the electability of much of the GOP with them when they leave. There are a few yahoos on the Trumpwagon, but many are just the politically frustrated.

[Pannonian]

Quite correct. Final recount showed a gap of well under 2k votes. Had only a few thousand persons who were TRUE left wingers voted Gore instead of Bush, then the 21st century would be a good bit different.

After chasing leads for over a decade, in 1984, the writer-politician Rupert Allason finally tracked down the legendary Agent Garbo, persuading Pujol to return to Europe in time for the 40th anniversary of the D Day landings, in which he played an integral part.

Always tip the waiter

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

At 2am on 2 May 1997 the Liberal Democrat Adrian Sanders was elected as MP for Torbay. This was after three recounts. Adrian had overcome the 5,787 majority of the sitting Conservative MP Rupert Allason and won by the narrow margin of 12 votes.

The story goes that Rupert had lost his seat because he failed to tip a local pub waitress a week before polling day. Fourteen Conservative-voting waiters then switched to the Liberal Democrats in protest... and Rupert lost by 12 votes.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

After chasing leads for over a decade, in 1984, the writer-politician Rupert Allason finally tracked down the legendary Agent Garbo, persuading Pujol to return to Europe in time for the 40th anniversary of the D Day landings, in which he played an integral part.

Always tip the waiter

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

At 2am on 2 May 1997 the Liberal Democrat Adrian Sanders was elected as MP for Torbay. This was after three recounts. Adrian had overcome the 5,787 majority of the sitting Conservative MP Rupert Allason and won by the narrow margin of 12 votes.

The story goes that Rupert had lost his seat because he failed to tip a local pub waitress a week before polling day. Fourteen Conservative-voting waiters then switched to the Liberal Democrats in protest... and Rupert lost by 12 votes.

Not quite sure of the Garbo link to this POTUS thread, but LOVED both tidbits.

[Viking]

I didn't even know I could vote, but I guess I have to start searching for my voting location tomorrow.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I didn't even know I could vote, but I guess I have to start searching for my voting location tomorrow.

Don't worry, just find the nearest one to you, hop the pond, and exercise the franchise. Clinton will win and you will probably wind up with a path to citizenship.

[Hooahguy]

So, election day. It comes down to this. Cant wait for this to be over, its been helluva ride.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I am looking forward to Wednesday so that the ads revert to tampons with wings and our ambulance chasers (Morgan and Mogan....FOR the people!). Infinitely preferable to the overdose (Fl is THE swing state) of political ads nauseum.

[HopAlongBunny]

[Xiahou]

I'll be voting after work today. I won't be voting for either Clinton or Trump- as they're both repulsive individuals. Not sure who I'll waste my POTUS vote writing in (probably either Vermin Supreme of Evan McMullin), but there are some down-ballot races that are worth voting for.

[edyzmedieval]

http://www.slate.com/votecastr_elect...t_tracker.html

Live turnout tracker - but keep in mind it's based on data analysis, and cannot be fully trusted/accurate.

[Kralizec]

Seamus and Xiahou:

just curious, during the republican primaries did you have a favourite candidate?

[Strike For The South]

TRUMP WEARING A BLUE TIE TO VOTE. HE WAS A PLANT THE WHOLE TIME. I CALLED IT.


Also, casted a protest vote. Real politician, had to write it in.

[Hooahguy]

Dont forget Strike about our little bet.

EDIT: for those who forgot.

[HopAlongBunny]

Trump has revealed a strategy: litigate early

http://wonkette.com/608398/sore-lose...evada-cheating

We'll have to see how that works out as a "plan".
Win or lose (lose really) it keeps the "debate alive", and will act to feed the "rigged" narrative.

[Hooahguy]

Also, the results from our little poll should be available to see now so it looks like Clinton narrowly beats out Johnson.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Might as well call my prediction right now: Clinton takes the popular vote but Trump wins the Electoral College in a repeat of 2000.

Anyway, I've got fond memories of going over the 2008 returns with you all, here's hoping for a relaxing and productive night everybody.