Brexit Thread

[Pannonian]

Trying to find logical reasons for Leave is wrong as the referendum was really about giving people a way to say **** YOU to the system. They took the opportunity provided and that's it. Very little logic, more about baser emotions.

Real incomes will drop across the board as prices rise and people (especially the less well off) will be able to buy less with their money. That's the price we'll have to pay for "removing the EU excuse for politicians".

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Real incomes will drop across the board as prices rise and people (especially the less well off) will be able to buy less with their money. That's the price we'll have to pay for "removing the EU excuse for politicians".

Every doom and gloom prediction so far has been proved wrong.

It's time to admit we don't know what's going to happen.

[Sarmatian]

Every doom and gloom prediction so far has been proved wrong.

It's time to admit we don't know what's going to happen.

All the doom and gloom prediction were about what happens when Britain leaves EU. Britain is still in EU.

You can't disbelieve negative consequences of the Brexit by cherry picking worst predictions and stating they didn't materialize. The sun will rise again the day after article 50 is triggered, and againt after UK actually leaves.

Godzilla won't appear but negative consequences will be felt by most people. The real cost, though, will be in opportunities lost, both economically and politically.

EDIT: On the other hand, there is still a chance, however small, that EU crumbles under its own weight, in which case the general consensus will be that UK made an excellent choice.

[Greyblades]

The damage of brexit is entirely dependant on access to the single market, access that I find reason to believe will be granted without the immigration requirements.

I say this because for all their bluster the EU is not stupid enough to believe the brexit damage will be one way only, as a leaked report indicates

[Kagemusha]

The damage of brexit is entirely dependant on access to the single market, access that I find reason to believe will be granted without the immigration requirements.

I say this because for all their bluster the EU is not stupid enough to believe the brexit damage will be one way only, as a leaked report indicates

It would be suicidal for EU to allow Britain access to the single market without the immigration requirements. It would lead to a mass exodus from EU, so i cant see that happening.

[Greyblades]

Bother, I believe you caught me falling into the EU = Europe trap.

I meant the European nations arent stupid enough to believe the damage will be one sided. The EU being one more nation leaving away from collapse has two choices let britain keep the single market or be the scapegoat for the local european politicians when the local deficit balloons.

Rock and hard place, perhaps, but at the tail end of an age where can kicking became an artform it is obvious what the favourable choice will be.

[rory_20_uk]

It would be suicidal for EU to allow Britain access to the single market without the immigration requirements. It would lead to a mass exodus from EU, so i cant see that happening.

It would almost be that most European countries want free trade and put up with the rest as an unfortunate side effect - and we can't have that! Many countries would fragment (Scotland would cede, perhaps Belgium would fall apart, Spain, perhaps Italy) if they had the security from NATO and borderless trade there would be much less need to be in a larger country.

And then what would all the bureaucrats do? Try and climb the new greasy poles? No - best keep things they are.

[Kralizec]

It would almost be that most European countries want free trade and put up with the rest as an unfortunate side effect - and we can't have that! Many countries would fragment (Scotland would cede, perhaps Belgium would fall apart, Spain, perhaps Italy) if they had the security from NATO and borderless trade there would be much less need to be in a larger country.

And then what would all the bureaucrats do? Try and climb the new greasy poles? No - best keep things they are.

It's easy to cry about bureaucrats. The governments of the member states agreed to freedom of movement. That was a long time ago, with fewer member states, but when Cameron tried to get restrictions on it the other countries didn't jump on the bandwagon with him.

The Dutch PVV tried to score points with the public a couple of years ago by agitating against eastern Europeans. It only earned them a modest popularity boost at best, and you rarely hear about it from them nowadays. They've returned to their usual tropes of bashing Islam and the European Union on more general subjects. Freedom of movement isn't controversial over here, even if the EU itself is lacking in popularity.

That there's going to be some sort of compromise between the UK and the EU almost goes without saying, but it's not going to give the UK the same kind of market acces it has today. Even if only for legalistic reasons - you simply can't be part of a trade bloc and retain the ability to negotiate trade deals with third parties, which is one of the government's stated goals.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

All the doom and gloom prediction were about what happens when Britain leaves EU. Britain is still in EU.

You can't disbelieve negative consequences of the Brexit by cherry picking worst predictions and stating they didn't materialize. The sun will rise again the day after article 50 is triggered, and againt after UK actually leaves.

Godzilla won't appear but negative consequences will be felt by most people. The real cost, though, will be in opportunities lost, both economically and politically.

EDIT: On the other hand, there is still a chance, however small, that EU crumbles under its own weight, in which case the general consensus will be that UK made an excellent choice.

Oh, I'm not saying there will be no pain, I'm just saying that the pre-Brexit predictions were all worst-case scenario and ONE prediction was that as soon as the result came through our economy would start to collapse as international trade and investment dried up.

Clearly, that hasn't happened and now looks unlikely, after an initial wobble international business has generally decided it still wants to trade with Britain and in Britain. At the same time our international partners are rapidly coming to the realisation that an independent Britain will be much easier to do a trade deal with than Europe.

Now, when we do leave there will be a period of painful adjustment but it's entirely unclear how long that period will be, how painful, and what we will be adjusting to. The same voices as before are predicting Armageddon, but they now ring hollow.

So, time to admit we don't know what the future holds, and by the by we can't command the sea to retreat either.

[Pannonian]

Oh, I'm not saying there will be no pain, I'm just saying that the pre-Brexit predictions were all worst-case scenario and ONE prediction was that as soon as the result came through our economy would start to collapse as international trade and investment dried up.

Clearly, that hasn't happened and now looks unlikely, after an initial wobble international business has generally decided it still wants to trade with Britain and in Britain. At the same time our international partners are rapidly coming to the realisation that an independent Britain will be much easier to do a trade deal with than Europe.

Now, when we do leave there will be a period of painful adjustment but it's entirely unclear how long that period will be, how painful, and what we will be adjusting to. The same voices as before are predicting Armageddon, but they now ring hollow.

So, time to admit we don't know what the future holds, and by the by we can't command the sea to retreat either.

I know for certain that the Norway model that you thought was the most likely result is definitely off the cards, as the PM has ruled out one of the preconditions. So we won't have the same access to the single market, which accounts for 50% of our exports. We'll need to renegotiate a trade deal to have some kind of access, which has been confirmed won't be as privileged as before (again, this isn't guesswork, but quotes from the powers that be). There are any number of areas where we are uncertain, but we are certain of the above.

Something else that has been predicted, that is coming to pass bit by bit, is increased costs leading to companies passing on the costs to their customers. For some things we can just do without. However, Labour recently mooted a proposal to cap energy costs. Which suggests there is at least some realistic possibility that energy will be one of the things that will increase in cost in the coming future. Should we do without heating in the future, as one of the necessary belt tightening costs that political Brexit (such as you've trumpeted) will require?

[rory_20_uk]

We trade with China, America, India without a trade agreement. Somehow we manage.

With the EU it'll be interesting to see whether the pragmatists or ideologues win out.