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  1. #1
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    You also need to take into account the deteriorating political situation in Turkey - in a couple of years Turkey may no longer be a viable partner or member of NATO.
    I fear you are correct, but suspect your timeline is optimistic.
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    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    I fear you are correct, but suspect your timeline is optimistic.
    Oh no, Turkey will be a basket case by the end of the year, or not.

    The Syrian Civil War has a few years to grind on yet though.
    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."

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  3. #3
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    Oh no, Turkey will be a basket case by the end of the year, or not.

    The Syrian Civil War has a few years to grind on yet though.
    You mis-understood my response. By 'too optimistic,' I was referring to Turkey's ceasing to be an effective allow a few years from now. I suspect it will be there in 6-15 months.

    You are correct as to the length of the Syrian Civil War, I believe, but I think the decision is already rendered and the rest, however lengthy, no more than denouement.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

  4. #4
    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
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    Default Re: Syria

    Whatever the outcome in Syria, there will be no solution. It is just one state amongst many, all of which range from moderately unstable to not really states at all but externally stuck together.

    All sides are killing civilians and prisoners. All are using human shields. All are in essence doing whatever they can to win - as always happens in a war - just when the West does it we call it such things as collateral damage / faulty intelligence or somesuch phrase which apparently makes everything OK.

    NATO needs Turkey and we'd rather they were in "our team" than not - even if they are an authoritarian dictatorship than look to Russia / China - realpolitik trumps morals.

    An enemy that wishes to die for their country is the best sort to face - you both have the same aim in mind.
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  5. #5
    Shadow Senior Member Kagemusha's Avatar
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    Default Re: Syria

    Maybe something akin to this should be done with borders of Iraq and Syria:

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    Al Assad is Alawite, so maybe the Alawite state should be named as Assadlandia or similar..
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    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
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    Default Re: Syria

    Turkey / Iran / Iraq would not want a kurdish state that other areas might wish to join.

    They might all be Sunni, but they also have other differences and would Iraqis / Syrians want to be together?

    Peace is generally the aftermath of when one lot wipe out the other lot, or at the very least displace all of them elsewhere.

    An enemy that wishes to die for their country is the best sort to face - you both have the same aim in mind.
    Science flies you to the moon, religion flies you into buildings.
    "If you can't trust the local kleptocrat whom you installed by force and prop up with billions of annual dollars, who can you trust?" Lemur
    If you're not a liberal when you're 25, you have no heart. If you're not a conservative by the time you're 35, you have no brain.
    The best argument against democracy is a five minute talk with the average voter. Winston Churchill

  7. #7
    Shadow Senior Member Kagemusha's Avatar
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    Default Re: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by rory_20_uk View Post
    Turkey / Iran / Iraq would not want a kurdish state that other areas might wish to join.
    Iraqi Kurdistan is practically independent as of now and they seem to have a quite good relationship with the current Shia majority Iraq government.

    Quote Originally Posted by rory_20_uk View Post
    They might all be Sunni, but they also have other differences and would Iraqis / Syrians want to be together?
    Both are Arabs, more so in the non coastal areas and in matter of fact during 70´s there was serious plans and talks between Syria and Iraq concerning unification.

    Quote Originally Posted by rory_20_uk View Post
    Peace is generally the aftermath of when one lot wipe out the other lot, or at the very least displace all of them elsewhere.

    Maybe in totalwar games, hardly in reality.
    Ja Mata Tosainu Sama.

  8. #8

    Default Re: Syria

    Can't tell if Turkey would balk, or welcome the opportunity.



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    In 1922, Turkish President Mustafa Kemal Ataturk dispatched his foreign minister, Mustafa Ismet Pasha, to Lausanne to save the fledgling Turkish republic from the jaws of voracious European colonialists. Two years earlier, the Treaty of Sevres had dismembered the Ottoman Empire, ceding big chunks of territory to the leading Allied powers along with the Greeks, Armenians and Kurds. Deeply traumatized, Turkey — under the nationalist command of Ataturk — was determined to return to the negotiating table, not as supplicant but as Europe's equal, to re-carve its post-colonial boundaries in the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne. Though the country regained control of Anatolia and the strategic straits through the deal, Turkey left some critical unfinished business at Lausanne: the former Ottoman vilayet of Mosul.

    The Turks demanded that the British, represented by Foreign Secretary Lord George Nathaniel Curzon, return the expansive territory, which stretched from Anatolia beyond the mountains of upper Kurdistan. From there, it followed the Tigris southeast from the Sinjar Mountains near the Syrian border, across the Nineveh plain through Mosul to Arbil and Kirkuk before butting up against the Zagros Mountains along the Iranian border. Ismet Pasha insisted that this swath of land was the natural dividing line between Anatolia and Mesopotamia, a strategic frontier where most inhabitants were intricately bound with Turkey by trade, tongue and culture. "Mosul has become more closely connected … with the ports of the Mediterranean than with those of the Persian Gulf," he argued. The region's oil wealth, in no small part, influenced the Turks' interest in Mosul. At the same time, they were also trying to extend the strategic depth of their new republic as far as possible, knowing that an array of adversaries could pit ethnic minorities in the Turkish periphery against the newborn state.

    Lord Curzon, armed with his own demographic and ethnographic studies, struck down the Turkish argument at every turn. London could not afford to let the threat of Turkey's expansionism thwart its own goal of establishing a strategic foothold in Mesopotamia and monopolizing the region's energy resources. Looking at the region demographically, Lord Curzon saw the Mosul vilayet as a land full of Arabs and ethnic minorities who were more willing to fight the Turks than to assimilate with them. "Why should Mosul city be handed back to the Turks? It is an Arab town built by Arabs. During centuries of Turkish occupation it has never lost its Arab character," he maintained. He also insisted that the Turkish argument for a natural mountainous buffer along the Sinjar-Mosul-Arbil-Kirkuk line was disingenuous:

    "Ismet Pasha has suggested that the Jebel Hamrin will make a good defensive boundary. But it is well known that this is not a great range of mountains, but merely a series of rolling downs. Is it not obvious that a Turkish army placed at Mosul would have Baghdad at its mercy, and could cut off the wheat supply almost at a moment's notice? It could practically reduce Bagdad by starvation."

    Ismet Pasha, known for driving Lord Curzon mad with his penchant for wearing earplugs while his British counterpart spoke, responded with utmost innocence:

    "Turkey, which has now ceased to be an Empire and become a national State, cannot think of attacking and conquering a country whose population belongs to a different race… [T]he Turkish and Arab people who have lived together like brothers for centuries would obviously never think of attacking each other when left to themselves."

    London and Ankara sparred for another three years over the Mosul Question, as it was called. The League of Nations finally put the matter to rest in 1926, and Turkey begrudgingly ceded rights to the Mosul vilayet to the British Mandate in Iraq in exchange for a few economic concessions. But Turkey's obsession with Mosul and its surroundings never ceased.
    For Ankara, this land is either a buffer in Turkish hands or a menace in the hands of its adversaries. And between Tehran, Damascus, Moscow, the PKK and the Islamic State, Turkey has no shortage of foes, each of which has no shortage of proxies to weaken the Turkish state.

    Well beyond the conflict of the day, Turkish and Persian spheres of influence have been colliding for centuries over the Mosul vilayet. As Turkey deepens its presence there, chipping away at Iran's Shiite crescent, that competition is bound to intensify. The Turks and Iranians are not abiding by the political borders of a contemporary map. Neither do they intend to draw up a new one, post-Sykes Picot, with states neatly repartitioned along ethno-sectarian lines that would threaten their own territorial integrity, particularly when it comes to the Kurds. On this fluid battleground, cranes, tanks and cash will shape the ebb and flow of competition among the strongest regional players, while the weak and fractious remnants of former empires try to stoke their own nationalist embers in defense.
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    Vitiate Man.

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  9. #9
    Shadow Senior Member Kagemusha's Avatar
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    Default Re: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Can't tell if Turkey would balk, or welcome the opportunity.



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    Saudi´s might have a one or two concerns with such eventuality. Though it would offer a very interesting dilemma for West, deciding between Turkey and Saudi´s which are a more important partner.
    Last edited by Kagemusha; 02-14-2017 at 17:46.
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  10. #10
    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    You mis-understood my response. By 'too optimistic,' I was referring to Turkey's ceasing to be an effective allow a few years from now. I suspect it will be there in 6-15 months.

    You are correct as to the length of the Syrian Civil War, I believe, but I think the decision is already rendered and the rest, however lengthy, no more than denouement.
    Oh no, I understood perfectly, that was why I said Turkey will be abasket case by the end of the year, or won't. It will depend on the outcome of the Referendum.
    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."

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