UK General Election 2017

[Beskar]

I got to admit, the most surprising thing int his election was how the Tories gained 12 seats in Scotland.

[Gilrandir]

How long can Theresa last? What a mess she's made. 10 days go until negotiations for brexit start and she's left the country without a government.

To sum the thread up: the last two prime ministers turned out to be bad gamblers and the bets they put all their money on were bad calls.

You are right. This is May's big day.

You can shorten it just to May Day.

[Furunculus]

How are “ease of trade with the Irish Republic and throughout the EU” and “arrangements to facilitate ease of movement of people, goods and services.” compatible with a hard Brexit? Also, are all the Tory MPs minus Ken Clarke going to hold to the whip if withdrawal from the single market is voted on?

Again, i return to my question: what is this "hard brexit" thing of which you speak? **

http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/...tions-answers/

The irish border is a fun problem, but nothing in this is easy.
Importantly, there is no rule/law/norm the EU has ever acquired that it hasn't been willing to drop in an instant if expediency demands it.
There is good will on both sides to solve this problem, it will be solved.

It does not [require] EEA access as the [only] possible mechanism to achieve this end.




** to me it means acrimony and wto terms, not whether we escape the clutches of the ecj (inshallah!), or leave the great tariff wall, i.e. the customs union.

[Idaho]

After a campaign that tried to link Corbyn to the IRA because he supported dialogue in ulster - the tories have now put the political wing of the loyalist paramilitary/terrorist group, the UDA, into government.

[Pannonian]

Again, i return to my question: what is this "hard brexit" thing of which you speak? **

http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/...tions-answers/

The irish border is a fun problem, but nothing in this is easy.
Importantly, there is no rule/law/norm the EU has ever acquired that it hasn't been willing to drop in an instant if expediency demands it.
There is good will on both sides to solve this problem, it will be solved.

It does not [require] EEA access as the [only] possible mechanism to achieve this end.




** to me it means acrimony and wto terms, not whether we escape the clutches of the ecj (inshallah!), or leave the great tariff wall, i.e. the customs union.

Hard Brexit is anything that loses us our current economic situation within the EU. I don't really care about the political situation, as long as the economic situation retains the (pre-2016) status quo. Soft Brexit is anything that retains said status quo whilst finding workarounds around the edges of that.

[Beskar]

Again, i return to my question: what is this "hard brexit" thing of which you speak? **

** to me it means acrimony and wto terms, not whether we escape the clutches of the ecj (inshallah!), or leave the great tariff wall, i.e. the customs union.

Hard Brexit is leaving all the European institutions.

[Idaho]

I got to admit, the most surprising thing int his election was how the Tories gained 12 seats in Scotland.

It goes to show how self defeating the SNP call for a second independence vote was. Sturgeon overplayed her hand after the Scottish remain vote. She should have called for a vote for Scotland to remain in the EU. Little incremental wedges, rather than stampeding in for the bullseye again.

[Montmorency]

whether we escape the clutches of the ecj (inshallah!), or leave the great tariff wall, i.e. the customs union.

You keep saying that. Would you be interested in enrolling into a de-radicalization program?

[Furunculus]

Hard Brexit is anything that loses us our current economic situation within the EU. I don't really care about the political situation, as long as the economic situation retains the (pre-2016) status quo. Soft Brexit is anything that retains said status quo whilst finding workarounds around the edges of that.

Hard Brexit is leaving all the European institutions.

Two very different views there:
One, I think referring to a distinctly disadvantageous economic situation, relative to that which we had.
The other, equating brexit'ness with an institutional (and political) closeness.

I can sympathise with the first, though I believe we differ over whether EEA access is necessary to prevent this situation arising.
I have no sympathy with the latter, as the whole purpose of voting leave was to achieve breakage from a nascent political union.

There is a logic in seeking to avoid the jurisdiction of the ECJ - especially if it means being a rule-taker - when the EU has such a poor reputation for conflating the single market with political union.
But I am not in principle opposed to remaining in the EEA, not least because single market competences are so much less enveloping than required by wider EU membership, using Norway as an example.

The key here is: does the EU understand that Britain's problem has always been the attempt to subvert the strict economic utility of the single market with a social and fiscal land-grab that can only be justified by political union. The eurozone is not the single market. Blair's discarding the Social Chapter opt-out was an excellent catylyst for a future Leave vote, entirely justified by its inevitable misuse in bringing in EU social and employment legislation in via the legislative back door.

If they can, and undertake to continue their political project under the eagis of the eurozone legal framework (thank you Mr Cameron, circa 2011), then sure, the EEA is a viable prospect.
If they cannot, then goodbye to the ECJ, and hello to some bespoke arrangement based on mutual recognition and sectoral equiovalence.

But, I do not consider the latter to necessarily constitute a "hard brexit"**.But that is because I place as much emotional importance and personal identity in the EU as I did in the department for business, skills and innovation. n.b. I think it was scrapped a while back, did anyone notice...?





** Failing to achieve it would be a hard brexit

[Idaho]

May's joint chiefs of staff just resigned.

And two out of three on conservative home say she should go:

http://www.conservativehome.com/thet...signation.html

Drip drip....

[Fragony]

What I see is a very vulnerable burocracy in panic, the EUcracy is only alive because we don't kill it and they know it

[LittleGrizzly]

I got to admit, the most surprising thing int his election was how the Tories gained 12 seats in Scotland.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/807...-Ruth-Davidson

Unfortunately we have an anti- Corbyn labour leader up North who think it is important that people in certain areas get out and vote Tory......

Maybe she was hoping to contribute to a Tory landslide that would have got Corbyn out, with 'friends' like these...

Ruth Davidson still did well don't get me wrong but hammering the SNP on independence and getting Labour to tell people to vote for you in a couple of areas doesn't seem like a long term winning strategy, a very good short term one though.

[Idaho]

Corbyn got the biggest Labour vote since 1997, May got the biggest Conservative vote since 1979.

It was a very old fashioned British election really. Obviously you have new stuff - SNP, youth vote, etc. But it was a two party election. 2008 being a high water mark for little parties.

[Fragony]

There was only one real election and the Brits voted for a Brexit, next election was about who's going to ignore it. Same here, we (the Dutch population) never wanted a EU-constitution or associaten-treaty witk Ukraine because we don't want trouble with Russia but we got it anyway. We voted against both but it's signed anyway. Elections, kidding me there is no choice only an answer and the answer is stfu

[Pannonian]

There was only one real election and the Brits voted for a Brexit, next election was about who's going to ignore it. Same here, we (the Dutch population) never wanted a EU-constitution or associaten-treaty witk Ukraine because we don't want trouble with Russia but we got it anyway. We voted against both but it's signed anyway. Elections, kidding me there is no choice only an answer and the answer is stfu

So who did you vote for on Thursday? Tories? UKIP?

[Fragony]

So who did you vote for on Thursday? Tories? UKIP?

Asking that to me is just as meaningless as me asking it to you, you will always get the same regardless.

[Idaho]

There was only one real election and the Brits voted for a Brexit, next election was about who's going to ignore it. Same here, we (the Dutch population) never wanted a EU-constitution or associaten-treaty witk Ukraine because we don't want trouble with Russia but we got it anyway. We voted against both but it's signed anyway. Elections, kidding me there is no choice only an answer and the answer is stfu

Europe is just not important to that many people here. However there is a minority of people, and a significant number of media barons, who are really bothered by it. When people were presented with a referendum, most took it either as a chance for a protest vote, or as a way to get a bit nationalistic.

[Fragony]

Europe is just not important to that many people here. However there is a minority of people, and a significant number of media barons, who are really bothered by it. When people were presented with a referendum, most took it either as a chance for a protest vote, or as a way to get a bit nationalistic.

They called it a 'protest vote' here as well, think a little further, it's no settled matter for the EU to exist it's thrown upon us. I can see it as nothing else than a very aggresive entity that has very little popular support, and who will never take no for an answer. They frankly scare the shit out of me because they are sure of themselves, and are so hostile to those who doesn't want them. It's 1984 but in 2017

[Pannonian]

Europe is just not important to that many people here. However there is a minority of people, and a significant number of media barons, who are really bothered by it. When people were presented with a referendum, most took it either as a chance for a protest vote, or as a way to get a bit nationalistic.

Hard Brexit has bloody significant knock on effects.

[Pannonian]

And Ruth Davidson says that the Scottish Tories will oppose any break from the single market. If the Scottish Tories follow her lead, they'll more than outweigh the DUP in any vote on a hard Brexit. And I'd imagine Ken Clarke won't be the only English Tory to cross the floor on that issue (Anna Soubry has also openly come out against it).

[LittleGrizzly]

Doesn't the single market come tied with freedom of movement?

Which would wreck the whole point a large number of people voted leave in the first place. We'd end up paying a bill and losing influence whilst achieving very little of what most leave voters wanted.

[Idaho]

So this big "England votes on English laws" that the tories were so insistent on as a great moral and political line in the sand....?

I'm guessing it's no longer really a big priority. Quelle surprise.

[Pannonian]

Doesn't the single market come tied with freedom of movement?

Which would wreck the whole point a large number of people voted leave in the first place. We'd end up paying a bill and losing influence whilst achieving very little of what most leave voters wanted.

The biggest fears were about a section of immigration which we had full control of in the first place. Which was why the UKIP-sponsored posters about freedom of movement meaning an influx of Muslims was both lying and stupid. Not stupid in terms of getting what they wanted; it was a genius move. But stupid in terms of the logic and what the politics-based Brexit deal will do to the country. If we approach any deal with the must have issue being single market access and the economic status quo, then we can accept whatever the price that requires, and argue the toss over what that allows. If we approach the negotiations with anything other than the economy as the must have, then we will screw our economy and this country for the rest of my lifetime. Europe matters hugely, as it determines our economy and from that everything else.

So this big "England votes on English laws" that the tories were so insistent on as a great moral and political line in the sand....?

I'm guessing it's no longer really a big priority. Quelle surprise.

The Tories have a majority in England. Take Northern Ireland out of the equation, and the SNP have a majority in Scotland and Labour in Wales, leaving the Tories with a majority in England. EVEL favours the Tories, even after this election.

[LittleGrizzly]

Even though a large part of it was due to non-EU immigration you could easily say they were voting for full control over our immigration, which many had been told was the only way to keep us safe, stop them taking services or housing.

Which would mean no freedom of movement, which would mean no access to the single market (as I understand it)

Note I am not at all suggesting that's what I want, but quite frankly if we aren't going to stop freedom of movement, which is what a very large percentage sorta voted on, then there is no point leaving the EU.

[Pannonian]

Even though a large part of it was due to non-EU immigration you could easily say they were voting for full control over our immigration, which many had been told was the only way to keep us safe, stop them taking services or housing.

Which would mean no freedom of movement, which would mean no access to the single market (as I understand it)

Note I am not at all suggesting that's what I want, but quite frankly if we aren't going to stop freedom of movement, which is what a very large percentage sorta voted on, then there is no point leaving the EU.

If that's the single issue they want above all else, then the decision is as stupid as I've said it to be. It will impact the economy, and from that everything else. I'll point out once more that the EU does not require freedom of movement per se, but movement of labour. That's a significant difference which other EU countries mark, but which the UK did not. There was already wriggle room there. If we decide we don't want wriggle room after all, then it goes back to what I've said about the economy.

1. The EU does not require freedom of movement, but freedom of movement of labour. Unemployed EU citizens are not labour and their free movement is not guaranteed.
2. None of that applies to non-EU countries. The UK can restrict movement however it likes from countries outside the EU without it affecting EU agreements. It will impact relations with these other countries, but 50% of the UK's exports go to the EU. Which means every other country in the world put together amounts to our export market of the EU.
3. Are we relying on fuel prices remaining forever low? Are we teleporting our goods overseas to Asia and the Americas, independent of distance?

Edit: Addendum to 1. Even what freedom there is can be waived if public security or various other concerns is an issue. So known criminals, if likely to be a problem, can be barred entry. So can potential jihadis. Each, on a case by case basis, probably challengeable, but nonetheless at the discretion of the UK government.

[LittleGrizzly]

As stupid as it was that is the reason a majority did it, full control over our borders.

Well that and the £350M a week extra for the NHS.

We can only give them it by losing access to the single market.

If we don't then the whole thing will just start back up again, and if we don't then we may as well just stay in the EU.

Doing some kind of botched job which actually pleases nobody and costs money seems pointless, although it does seem to be the plan...

Either do the sensible thing or follow the will of the electorate.

[a completely inoffensive name]

The youth vote is always heavily Labour. The youth vote that is heavily Labour is also heavily Tory once they get past a certain age. The same individuals.

I was talking about youth vote turnout. it was in the 40% in 2015.

[Pannonian]

I was talking about youth vote turnout. it was in the 40% in 2015.

The crossover point is still around 35. And the oldest demographic still outnumbers the 18-24 demographic, and consistently turns out in the 70s. If anything, this election has shown that the centre is still where the election is won. Not the 20% hardcore support at either end of the spectrum. But the 60% that can swing either way. May took it for granted.

[a completely inoffensive name]

The crossover point is still around 35. And the oldest demographic still outnumbers the 18-24 demographic, and consistently turns out in the 70s. If anything, this election has shown that the centre is still where the election is won. Not the 20% hardcore support at either end of the spectrum. But the 60% that can swing either way. May took it for granted.

Again, my point is that if Corbyn can keep the momentum of 70% youth turn out going based on the results of this election isn't that a game changer?
I am asking the question of whether all the young showed up, simply because they were scared of May. I doubt it, because they didn't scare about brexit.

[Pannonian]

Again, my point is that if Corbyn can keep the momentum of 70% youth turn out going based on the results of this election isn't that a game changer?
I am asking the question of whether all the young showed up, simply because they were scared of May. I doubt it, because they didn't scare about brexit.

It's unexpected, but are you going to rely on it? Some 50-odd% of the 18-24s turned out in 1997, then they were down to 30-odd in 2001 (before Iraq). It'll be interesting to see how the votes panned out this election. The drop happened after the Tory manifesto came out, which contained some decidedly odd policies that might have been designed to scupper support taken for granted. It's doubtful if the Tories will run such a patently suicidal campaign again.