XCOM Mafia [Concluded]

[Champ]

hi, are you going to betray me this time U FUK

[Champ]

csargo pls ily

[Manasi]

OH SHIT WUDDUP

[Manasi]

y r u trying to be me champ

[Montmorency]

I thought Advent were the new XCOM.

Vote: No Lynch

[Askthepizzaguy]

I thought Advent were the new XCOM.

Vote: No Lynch

Are you claiming SK, then?

These two opening posts from Monty feel like signaling to the scum team that he is in fact neutral or third party.

No Lynch is not threatening to scums. It's also not very townie, although crimson also did this for reasons that look off-board-culture-y and most definitely not scum or 3p.

Monty talking about Sk/3p immediately means it's on his mind.

Why I have such a massive neutral/3p read on him, right away. Those first 2 posts.

No death last night means to me that neutral survivor or other third party hostile is likelier than straight up SK.

Under such a metric, he's gotta at least keep an eye out for scums, but his goal isn't necessarily to lynch them off. Just not die from them.

Or maybe he.... holstered as SK. That seems like a super Monty thing to do. Only Monty, really, would ever.

I might do it as SK to claim vig later, but not the way I've played this game. Not by a long shot, or a holstered one. I like to kill the scums too much, too, especially if I have a scum read and I definitely did. Fredwood would be dead today if I was either SK or vig. That seemed really decent at the time.

Unvote; Vote: Pizza

Should be ovbs

Monty behavior.

Scan me.

3p/survivor alone can have godfather powers and/or bulletproof to give them weight comparable to scum team.

As such, a good strategy for such a role would be to ask to be scanned, and hope that the mafia team gets dead or pocketed before they ever wear through the bulletproof vest.

Page 6, a lot of time has elapsed.

To those upset that I haven't shown myself enough, see the last game. The burst in activity around midday leaves me cold.

As of page 6, my impression is this is super-scum Pizza and DP is town. I don't want to antagonize potential scum Pizza, especially with unread content, so I've stayed away from the game for the last day.

If we have 3.5 hours, I guess I can catch up, but whatever.

It sure looks like he's doing what I said he was doing since he's just saying it outright.

He'd be really on the ball if I was scum. And even though I'm not, it still sends the right signals to the right people, and this is not Monty towning it up, I don't think.

Does he have to be non-town? Can he just be weird? You bet. This is Monty we're talking about.

I wouldn't put it past him to act neutral on purpose. Seems like a Monty thing to do.

I've had some experience over the last game, scumming with you twice, once cursing you from the dead town bench, and once working together as town.

What you looked like today is scum Pizza shock-and-awe flitting between a swarm of commitments and evaluations, with intent to confuse the landscape and prime one of any number of future gambits.

I'm reading that you have been.

I believe he believes his read. PPSD.

I don't know what I'm doing, so I won't tie it.

If he's town and believes the scumpizza tinfoil, maybe he should be voting against me here. Just think he's a newt or playing as such.

I won't tunnel you, just work with me to find scum. What do you think of DP right now?

Abrupt change of tactics.

Roleblock, bulletproof, MAFIA HOLSTER

But yeah, maybe.

Lol the holster comment. Bulletproof comment tho

I feel like his contributions on day 2 are standard for him, even though this is a non-standard game he's giving.

Neut or Monty townie. Monty is his own alignment, and can live in a town made of tinfoil.

Scum monty? I don't know how his behavior matches a scum game. Maybe it's that bizarre but I don't think so. I think his odds of alignment are neutral highest, 3p/sk next, townie next, mafia lowest.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Manasi iso superwall:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Are you claiming wolf, then?

Kind of like this the best out of her opening posts. Probably NAI though.

Townie tone, probably easy for Manasi to fake.

Wolf.

Snap response to dp101's opening is about the same as mine. Mindmeld.

Not really liking the tweaking out from ATPG, but that's a personal thing and not a reads thing, probably almost lock town for now.

Can be pocketing.

Hm, what else.

I think that was a really forced joke by Sooh - it just read as really awkward.

Winston's entrance towny, Logic's reaction also towny.

Manasi-Winston unlikely. Think Sooh-Manasi as a pair unlikely now that time has passed and I've thought about it more.

Waiting for novice to post himself clear, because that's basically what happened in Pokemon.

Manasi-novice possible but this may just be coincidence.

First semi-wolf read would be on Crimson, super weird posting and not a fan of what they're saying.

Surely the voting no lynch was a joke but like..

Seemed to be posted for the sake of posting.

In other news, I need a new avatar. Taking suggestions.

Manasi-crimbo unlikely.

Vote:Manasi

(gif)

Manasi-Csargo goating it up this game, if it were the case. Csargo moreso than Manasi. Unlikely to me.

You/Jowy.

Dunno about that Jowy read but I'll keep looking.

Reread is occuring. I think Novice is slightly towny, but only slightly, and I already know he's capable of that kind of thing. Manasi seems more forced than normal, and the early comment about the difference between neutral and third-party makes me think some kinda anti-town third party role. I am terrible at reading spamposters however, which is why you won't see a Champ read in here. Logic was decent once he stopped spamming, but could do with more posts. Winston objectively towny with his jokey attitude, doesn't feel forced at all. Monty is Monty, I really don't know how to read him, at all. Maybe slight town for doing the same kinda snap read on me that he does every game (or at least, it felt like a snap read last time)? But he does that as scum as well, I dunno. Everyone else needs to post more.

Manasi-dp unlikely.

This is one of the fastest org games I've ever played sos.

Anything worth catching up on? I skimmed through ATPG isos.

Surprising reaction. Kinda iffy.

What is this you're 3rd? Join me at the top.

Manasi-Csargo possible if Csargo is scum somehow here. Strategy is to deliberately blow townies off the board with WIM?

I dunno I think Manasi'd be posting even more if that were the case.

Granted, I'm pretty sure that was like 24 hours ago.

Vote: Sooh

Manasi-sooh unlikely. Manasi not going to carry it with a d1 bus. Could be high risk distancing of a less active wolf, to get as much equity out of Sooh-slot as possible. I've done that before several times, it's probably the only reason I'm even tinfoiling this a little.

...and?

i'm not lynching a one poster, and she did leave a legit excuse

Manasi-Cuth unlikely.

I'm not...sure how productive that is going to be.

I'm fully aware my own vote might not be productive either, just there is a difference between Champ's drop off and someone not really posting at all due to real life things.

Manasi-crimbo still looks unlikely.

Vote: Logic

The background is that he was the host of the recent game where I randed a miller-type role, in which I opened with the same hardclaim bit as I opened with here. Discussions around that claim ended up dominating the whole first day, culminating in me getting mislynched, but not before I correctly picked out several townies and scumbags based on their reactions. He and I then spent a while talking about the day's events in dead chat.

In this context, his reaction here looks bad to me. It was like he felt he needed to react in some way, but got caught between playing along with the claim and showing that he knew it wasn't for real.

Then there was Manasi's reaction, which felt like he was giving us both town credit far too cheaply, and made me wonder if he'd got some inside line from scumchat.

And looking at their ISOs - and Manasi's weak (and delayed) response to my question - I'm not seeing any great reason to townread either of them, or to doubt that they might be scumbuddies.

Manasi-winston unlikely.

An excuse that excuses one day of a 48h phase is fine

never coming back is the issue.

K i n d a r i d i c u l o u s i m o

Also COMPLETELY not okay with a Monty lynch.

If we're lynching a low poster, it's gonna be Sooh and not Monty.

Not very comfortable with this post.

Monty def your scumbuddy huh. I see.

Manasi-Csargo showboating if scum together.

Manasi prolly town.

El Barto ehhhhh

Manasi-Sooh can't be mutual bussing. Manasi slot was going for the town creds for bussing Sooh if Sooh-Manasi, I don't think you ever push Manasi back in such a situation. It's really bad if you somehow made it happen. You'll never explain how you lived through to final 3.

So, not pushing back on Manasi makes sense even if both are scum.

Don't think the team is Manasi-Sooh-Novice so I don't like this tinfoil. I think one at most between the two.

Sooh scummier between the two? Still need to look over Sooh again.

You know what his personality is like though. Why are you suddenly jumping on him for being exactly himself?

I think brain is tired, I'm not getting a lean one way or the other here.

Manasi should be a stronger town read from me, and it all feels like how cardboard tastes. Not sure if it's Manasi causing it, or my sucking at reading her.

I thought I completely blew away the Manasi town read last time and it was super pure. Not feeling that here.

Zack plz count it

Vote DP101

Too many sites too many voting formats

This is normal for Manasi. Voting near end of day to explicitly lynch someone is how Manasi towns.

Jowy peeked me he can't be scum.

Don't like this post for reasons already stated. Manasi addressed it, just noting it for thoroughness.

Where did Barto disappear

Manasi-barto maybe? My reads would be pretty terrible to make this happen.

I think I've now mentioned Manasi's name more than anyone else ever has combined. It's frustrating me that I don't have a stronger lean. I should have one by now.

lol atpg/crimson are just clear i cba to read that

The problem is Sooh's "Oh nice guys when you push scum on me I wanna try soooo haaarddd" sarcasm/AtE/plea is not something I see coming from a villager.

Or at least, I don't do it as a villager and I'm bad so it must be a horrible play lol.

Fun.

Feels true enough. I feel like Manasi-scum would be reacting to me by now, like someone swatting at a stinging bee.

I think town Manasi has me town and therefore I'm just invisible to her.

fzzt

But of course.

Noted.

Really? Manasi seems much more focused this game. Last game you were both quite flighty and lolcatty, not just under pressure but overall. Manasi's activity is more grounded in the game course - isn't yours as well?

Hmm. I kind of want to sheep this.


__________________________


Manasi townish with mixed feelings, but I should be doing better at town-reading her. Feels like how I felt toward Zander when he was scum.

Manasi-scum makes a ton of people look amazing though. I think several folks are not scum with Manasi.

Don't feel great about pulling the trigger on that when I have a scummier novice and many more probable options.

Yeah I would like to see Manasi's response to this.

Manasi-novice still not discounted.

My plan is to try to get a better read on nulls, primarily Manasi (though I have a feeling that might be a lost cause) and logic, which I think won't be.

Manasi-Fredwood unlikely, imo.

Holy moly Cuth, that post.

Regarding my lame defense of Jowy, I wasn't paying enough attention to see he was actually on the table for a lynch. Y'all know I'm a very jokey person in game and I thought the peek claim, however horrible misplaced and obviously fake, was a funny thing to ride out.

Mostly a joke between friends I suppose, nothing alignment indicative. I get why people are reading into that tho.

lolmafia

I feel like I'd be getting more pushback if Manasi-scum was correct. Maybe she's just good.

Sooh's iso results just seem like a lot of recap.

Where she does give reads/leans, they seem like.. hesitant, almost?

Fair.

Yes, because town me is always sure of her reads.

This is also quite true.

Vote: Sooh

just gonna keep this here from yesterday

Seems fine.

Glad to see that it didn't matter either way what I did today.

Sooh can post this thought as town easily.

You missed the questions I had in some of them then. Or is it better when it's not just a link but an actual quote? What is it you want exactly?

Best way to find scum-sooh: treat her fairly, give her space to work, take her seriously, encourage her to engage. The more she gives you the more accurate the read. Even if you suspect Sooh, draw her out and see about the depth in her thought. She will not do well with unfair/unjust suspicions as town, and especially not being ignored. Will taint your read of her.

Wait, what? You seemed very present and attentive at end of day. Here are some sample posts:

After a lot of collective hand-wringing regarding Jowy, you repeat your lame defense of him. Surely you knew he was up for a lynch?

Looks like possible distancing, or novice just scum. I can't clear Manasi based on this even if novice flips scum.

I'm back and caught up, with a bottle of cognac at hand and a free pass for the morning from my good lady wife.

First take is that pizza is breaking new ground, whatever his alignment. Extreme lucidity, convincing progression, agenda either super-obvious or exceptionally well disguised. The Jowy lynch was terrible in a way that speaks of either genuine misread or remarkably brazen scumming. If this was D4, paranoia would be kicking in hard, but at this stage he looks really good, simply because I can't see why he'd play the early game this way as scum.

Second take is that my suspects from yesterday still look scummy. Neither Logic nor Manasi responded to my suspicions, and neither has broken out to give me that townie goodness I'm looking for.

Third take is that Cuth and Csargo have moved in opposite directions. I really like how Cuth has been posting. If he's faking that flow, then it's very well done. By contrast, Csargo has carried on with the same reactionary bit he started the game with, which is townie enough on the surface, but starts to look a bit weak and easy when there's more substance to engage with.

Manasi-winston not likely still.

So, some reads cobbled together on gedit:

Manasi is posting too much fluff. See post #858!

snip

I find this line at the bottom of my text file:
Csargo-Manasi-Champ for trio of mafiosi?

Not pushing Manasi hard enough to discount distancing.

I mean if you actually wanted to lynch Dp101 you would have moved your vote. I made it pretty clear throughout D1 what I wanted, and when it became unlikely I sheeped ATPG, because I think he's town. Then I moved back because Manasi voted Dp. I dunno what to say honestly, generally I don't think, and just react. I just figured you were happy with lynching Jowy.

Manasi-Csargo goatest team of all time probably doesn't let Csargo hang with vote switches to dp and hoping for a miracle.

Too goat if so. It's a nice tinfoil and gg if that's the solve. I'm going to stick with likelier and saner scenarios.

This is me tapping out. I lean town slightly on Manasi. I should be reading her much stronger townie though at this stage... but that might be my too high expectations of myself.

If she happened to be scum, look here for partner analysis. It spews too many people town I think, mafia will lose.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Sanity break. I can't read any more isos or posts right now. If I can't catch scum and find town given how much info day 1-night1-day 2 has given me, scum deserve it.

It should all be there on paper unless it's Bsmith. Plus I got enough townies that if they were all correct, it should be POE'd out.

Not that confident yet to POE it out. Instead, kill Novice.

[El Barto]

Oh, Good Lord, people are already posting in pseudomonosyllabic style. I need a drink.

Also, the random number gods dictate that I vote:Fredwood. Let us get this thing started.

[El Barto]

y r u trying to be me champ

I should think that not even Champ could have such low tastes. But his posts seem to prove me wrong.

[Manasi]

Barto when will we ever be friends?

[Champ]

barto run

[El Barto]

Barto when will we ever be friends?

When we are in the same faction, Manasi, darling.

barto run

Good God, Lemon Champ. What am I supposed to be running from? Improper use of spelling, punctuation and capitalisation?

[Csargo]

I should think that not even Champ could have such low tastes. But his posts seem to prove me wrong.

[Askthepizzaguy]

That feeling when the way the org attaches gifs to the forum looks like total trash since it posts a thumbnail as well as the whole image, completely needlessly.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Hottake: El barto is cagey. He could be third party neutral wolfy non-townie or Barto-y, an alignment that only pertains to El Barto in every game he's ever been in.

Spicier take: I watched the first episode of the office, with Sooh. I chuckled once, she didn't laugh. Based off of that one episode alone, and no other, the Office sucks balls.

Too spicy for this crowd?

[Csargo]

That feeling when the way the org attaches gifs to the forum looks like total trash since it posts a thumbnail as well as the whole image, completely needlessly.

[Csargo]

hi, are you going to betray me this time U FUK