XCOM Mafia [Concluded]

[Sooh]

Pls can people be here and talk to me?

[Sooh]

It's like less than 4 hours until DL and I just want to discuss my leans with people.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If you lynch inside my townies, or me, after the day I had today.

Why is no one voting Jowy?

I'm about to put my vote back on dp101. But I honestly don't get how you guys are letting an obviously fake process like his fly.

[Montmorency]

To those upset that I haven't shown myself enough, see the last game. The burst in activity around midday leaves me cold.

As of page 6, my impression is this is super-scum Pizza and DP is town. I don't want to antagonize potential scum Pizza, especially with unread content, so I've stayed away from the game for the last day.

If we have 3.5 hours, I guess I can catch up, but whatever.

[Sooh]

Vote: El Barto

[Askthepizzaguy]

To those upset that I haven't shown myself enough, see the last game. The burst in activity around midday leaves me cold.

As of page 6, my impression is this is super-scum Pizza and DP is town. I don't want to antagonize potential scum Pizza, especially with unread content, so I've stayed away from the game for the last day.

If we have 3.5 hours, I guess I can catch up, but whatever.

No offense Monty, but I don't think you could ever read me scum on d1 correctly.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Just reading the room since I had dinner and a nap, the climax of this day was my pushing Jowy and mentioning fredwood.

Neither one of them handled that push well.

Then, after I was gone, look at their behavior. You all let them go, and the tension all vanished.

Neither one of them did anything at all, really. Jowy's back on low-hanging fruit that won't fight back, and Freddo didn't do anything. Literally.

[novice]

ignore that then

it's mostly been that, you've mentioned a few other people as consideration but apparently are scumreading DP SO highly that you're not even considering anyone else

look, you quoted those posts, yeah? i don't see how those outweigh the many towny posts he's made

there are a few posts that are scummy

they're not even that scummy

but you are acting like they are, and bringing them up like they're worth more than they are

it COULD just be that i vastly disagree with you, but that just seems

wrong or off or something

but i just see a massive discrepancy between your stated confidence in your reads and the basis you're grounding them on

unvote: for now

i agree that csargo and dp were bad lynches

What turned you off Csargo?

[Fredwood]

I really don't know what flinching is, so not sure how it would be textbook. I was checking in on the thread but there still no interaction with the post and more things that I had no reason to weigh in on, kind of interesting that there was pushback on it once it seemed certain I was not active in the thread. Seems convenient coupled with the fact that there was a number of people who "bugged" off after a period of time. Inconsistent stance. Pocketing the other top poster, focusing down easy mislynches (the new guy, the quiet guy, the inactive guy), using volume as a defense. I'll be inclined to think that I won't be voting for anyone who Pizza is voting for anytime soon, If you aren't scum I have 0 percent faith in your reads especially with them being so flimsy.

Good feels about: CSargo, novice, and DP because of Barto, Cuth I liked the chunk of time he was active.

People I want to feel good about: Sooh, reads are mindmelding, but have concerns about buddying (was a recent victim of buddying so I'm still scurred). Winston...if anything for him aggressively going after someone everyone seems to be afraid of. CS belittling him and dismissing him is another good look for Winston in a game where Pizza is scum.

I've noticed Logic's posts, but I haven't formulated a read yet.

Pressure, sir? My vote in these games is always, by definition, a random vote.

Not even I would go to such ridiculous lengths to justify a belated OMGUS-type vote.

Lol nice try, I reaction tested you and you failed miserably, wasn't OMGUS. I may be new to this site, but I'm not new. So good job just enforcing my stance on you by trying to misrepresent my argument.

[Fredwood]

Winston...if anything for him aggressively going after someone everyone seems to be afraid of. CS belittling him and dismissing him is another good look for Winston in a game where Pizza is scum.

I meant Pizza there not CS.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Previous game on this site. Town pizza. Sooh was in it.

This is my 6th post of that game, extremely early in the round, in fact, so early that I got some guff for even having a reads list. I don't waste time getting down to business and trying to town-read people based off of anything they can give me as early as possible, mainly because the random vote stage and joke vote stage is utterly useless to an analyst.

Sooh: "Throughout the day he does a ton of analysis, which for the time of the game and the state of the game I'd say is redundant at that point."

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

I have some time to take a look and here's my look. This is my impression of who is not a royalist and getting voted right now.

(votecount)
^My guess is all these votes are misses

Not sure what to think about these, I'd guess at least 5 townies being voted in this group.

I feel roughly about here due to all the posts so far, and the vote count as it stands.

Askthepizzaguy
Renata
Manasi
BSmith

NotACop
atheotes
Montmorency
Snerk

Monstrdude
Kagemusha
Zack
seireikhaan

Lewwyn
Csargo
Logic
Choxorn

If I had to place a serious vote, I'd guess there are 3 scums reside inside these 8, with my vote going most likely toward the bottom pile.

Sooh
Dp101
Jabbz
Fenn

Arakhor
autolycus
Al Sipsclar
El Barto

reactions at the time, followed by my justification:

Is that post supposed to be ironic or something?

This is a lot of reads for seemingly a lot of fluff stuff. ATPG idk if we've ever played together, I just remember you yelling at me for an MU game. Are you the goatest?

That was my thought. Wagon analysis and 11 town reads at this point in the game? Not sure if I buy that's legitimate.

I see the game has finally started.

I didn't really want to get into this with an "analyze ATPG" session, but you put it out there when you could have just played silly buggers like me. Without getting too spammy, can you please justify your top three and bottom four reads?

I could, but I don't think it would be very persuasive to people. I can say it in general terms, to aid people in understanding that there was thought put into it.

It's largely experience and instinct, based on paper thin first impressions, understanding of what I'd do if scum in this setup, what most players would do, and my analysis of the people inside my own faction who I don't want to name. I think I have a 70/15/5/5/5/0 read on my group based on their reactions to my opening posts there. The odds also just favor the votes being almost entirely on townies at the moment, if they were random, and they're not. The mafia's votes aren't random and even though most of ours are semi-random, there will also be biases regarding not necessarily piling votes on one's own faction members this early. Scum would likely be voting outside their own faction here, on a townie. I'd even put the odds of them voting for each other as higher than voting inside their own faction on a townie. That goes against the strategy of manipulating one's seeming faction-mates, it also draws attention and is therefore probably counterproductive.

I haven't caught anyone, I just haven't found some people to be showing revolutionary colors yet. I'm working from a town-down perspective and including some gut suspicions into the bottom 4.

Oh and nobody ever thinks I'm acting like I do as town when I act the way I do as town, no one ever thinks I believe my own gut.

I could only remind people (ineffectively as always) that I frequently go out on a way limb as early as possible in the game to get reads out.

Gonna cite my strong opposition to the wagons on the MTGS crossover game on day one that no one believed were authentic but were, and my strong opposition to the current suspects in the hydra game, both games I was lynched day one.

I know these patterns go against your instincts but my instincts are all backwards from yours.

Note the bolded.

How I ended the day 1 of that game: By voting specifically to protect my town read. Which lynched a scum. Then I shot one that night. Why? Because I try to find as many townies as possible as early as possible so that these early rounds aren't all faffing and wasted time.

That crossover game I cited at the end of the above, btw, not only was I town, but I was a hydra account with Sooh. So not only has her last town-town experiences with me matched this game entirely, but she got to view it from inside my player slot in one of those. I was all business and hunting towns and defending them from death even when the silly nanners tried to lynch me for it. And I pushed a scum case hard there too, and that time I was right. So I have experience trying to make day 1s not a waste, because I know for a fact they don't have to be. Even this mislynch gave me tons of info.

That's why this particular comment from Sooh triggered me.

Next: Why it's backwards.

Sooh: "But he's capable of it as townie too"

In my view, town-Sooh logic should go like this;

"This is how pizza behaves on day one as townie, in every game I can recall, he's just capable of it as scum."

Next:

"During EOD when I'm actually online despite not having been so for most of the game, he doesn't engage me in talk or ask my opinions or why I said I thought he was scum, he just tries to push and derail."

Not sure I talk directly to Sooh much at all during the early days of any game. My stance on Sooh is to wait and see what she does, interfering with it as little as possible.

Sooh, my dear, you aren't right this game.

[novice]

Skimmed to the end, caught up to page 7.

I'd love to say that this behaviour, coming from champ, is atypical of an average game of his, but unfortunately, this isn't uncommon enough from him to easily write him off as frozen.

The initial enthusiasm followed by not playing, Crimson described it, IS atypical though.

What made you come around so quickly on this by the way, in post 500 you say:
"You know, I'm actually becoming gradually mroe ok with a Champ lynch. Him just popping in really does not feel that typical of his play."

Brief insight: if Dp101 is scum, I find it unlikely that novice is on his team. I saw at least one post by novice that looks like too convincing a case for Dp101 and novice to be on the same team.

Are you saying I made a convincing case on Dp101? Where?

so, like

nobody who's been on the table all day except dp?

This kind of feels disingenuous. Champ, El Barto, Jowy have all gotten serious votes that I can recall off top of head, while I think Csargo is only one of those that has.

Agreed.

If you lynch inside my townies, or me, after the day I had today.

Why is no one voting Jowy?

I'm about to put my vote back on dp101. But I honestly don't get how you guys are letting an obviously fake process like his fly.

Question/analysis task for everyone, really: How did we end up lynching Jowy after Pizza repeatedly promised to vote Dp101?

Fredwood didn't do anything since I slightly scum read him but post this and peace out.

No one followed up on this guy either.

This is a textbook flinch.

Why am I the only one who engaged with Fredwood regarding his theories? I think his case on El Barto was perfectly valid, but it seems people are trying to hush it up.

[Askthepizzaguy]

(snips)
Question/analysis task for everyone, really: How did we end up lynching Jowy after Pizza repeatedly promised to vote Dp101?

Why am I the only one who engaged with Fredwood regarding his theories? I think his case on El Barto was perfectly valid, but it seems people are trying to hush it up.

That question should have been directed at me. Instead he's playing to the crowd.

Next, buddying Fredwood, someone I suspected.

Playing people off of each other.

Two townies and a town lean, nice. Waiting for people to go offline and then starting lynch wagons on them is not the best process.

More buddying of Fredwood, and his undercutting is passive-aggressive, just as the rest of his game has been.

After a lot of collective hand-wringing regarding Jowy, you repeat your lame defense of him. Surely you knew he was up for a lynch?

After undercutting me, he's using my own critique of Manasi against her.

He's just being a scummy parrot.

I completely agree with this description also, which is probably what's feeding our paranoia. But there's a strategic difference between scumming like this on day one and in the late game. Early days you generally want to narrow your footprint as scum. (I guess I'm parroting Winston here but whatever.)

He's even self-conscious about being a scummy parrot.

Vote: El Barto
Don't like him brushing off Fredwood, and if Dp is town his behaviour towards Dp on day one is bad also.

Buddying 2 people at once.


That's Novice's day 2.

He should not get a day 3.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Teal deer summary for the wall-impaired

1) Terrible opening flurry for reasons stated above.

2) Parrots many people's reasoning so he can hang in the background in plain sight, not be responsible for other people's pushes while supporting them.

3) Buddying

4) Awful process arriving at his "top town read" Jowy for utterly generic reasons, a townread which he then doesn't defend, but helps me attack.

5) Vote Csargo, peace out, using Cuth's justification.

6) Nothing at all townie about him found.

[novice]

Pizza, I'm not playing against the middle, I'm being objective and keeping an open mind. Something I always (try to) do. And I always interrogate people on the slightest of things. You should know this, you saw me play this game from the GM perspective recently. I was all over the place and didn't home in on scum until LyLo. If I haven't found as many town leans as I used to, maybe people are less towny this game.

The Csargo vote was meant specifically to empower Cuth, but he didn't run with it.

[Logic]

I'm pretty sure @Winston is town. Post #519 looks really good, even if he is pointing at me. (There, I answered you!)

The only thing I'm worried about is that I may have toed our fates together, because from an outsode perspective, the Miller claim incident could be viewed as a (bad) performance on my part to get a pair of scum townie points.

[Csargo]

Pls can people be here and talk to me?

Sup? @Sooh

[Sooh]

Sup? @Sooh

Hello. I'm tired. What's your name?

[Csargo]

Hang on a second.

Csargo, have you noticed something odd about today?

I haven't been around much today, so no not really.

Hello. I'm tired. What's your name?

My name is Csargo!

[Csargo]

I noticed the color ATPG. I commented on it earlier. Didn't notice Manasi/Champ though.

[Sooh]

Wait. Current tinfoil is that voting in a different color does what exactly?

[Csargo]

I'm gonna eat and think about this sweet new paranoia ATPG has given me.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Wait. Current tinfoil is that voting in a different color does what exactly?

I dunno. I didn't even remember who did it, I just thought I remembered a colorful vote that didn't match any normal vote color before.

At first I thought it was some neutral or third party people handshaking, but both of the obviously out of place colors were from Cuthillius.

Which now might mean it's meaningless.

However, I don't know. I also don't think Cuth is actual scum or anything, but his behavior and votes are strange to me.

[Askthepizzaguy]

In any case, time is basically up for a lot of people this round.

Sooh and I are not going to be around I'd imagine, just due to where we live on the earth.

A lot of people have already peaced out for the round, and many of them were my suspects, and those people looked super comfortable with the tally.

I think this is a mislynch or non-scum lynch in progress, just by reading the room.

I think those of us who are here need to throw our weight around and push a scum now.

If you're not following me then I need a scummy candidate I can lynch. And most of the folks with votes ain't cutting it.