XCOM Mafia [Concluded]

[Montmorency]

I found this tally interesting in my re-reading. I stopped and looked for potential partner exclusions.



Teal are the strong town leans I have currently.
Green are the mild town leans I have currently.
Light green indicates I favor Manasi in a lot of situations where it is either Manasi or the other party (ex: Sooh or Champ) but it's not strong.
Purple is the not-mafia lean I have on Monty.
No scum leans put on the board.


Based on this, if Champ is scum it clears snow, which isn't a lot of people but I think there were others who bothered to scum-push champ yesterday and I think those can be genuine pushes from towns, if he's scum. I think Manasi gets a town lean that expires close to endgame if Champ is scum.

One of Auto and novice can be scum, would not anticipate both. Not even saying I'm leaning that way, just noting it's not a couple probably.

Fred or Sooh flipping scum looks great for El Barto. They look very unaligned with Barto and vice-versa.

Sooh flipping scum looks great for Bsmith, but it's too easy distancing to lock him town. I'd give him a round or two.

Barto flipping scum would give Fredwood and Sooh at least a round or two of relief. They're individually problematic enough that I don't know if I ever lock them town, but the scum team really should not be Barto-Fred or Barto-Sooh. So if Barto was scum I think I have to swallow both of those reads and start hunting inside places like Winston or Autolycus. Probably Champ first, in that universe.

Csargo and novice are not a couple, I don't think. Not really thinking that was a strong possibility anyway.

Auto probably not scum with Novice.

Champ can be scum with almost everyone.

Winston and Logic low odds of being a scum team.

Monty scum clears Logic and Cuth quite well.

This is why I like the low tallies on day one, folks. It's quite pro-town for analysts. This isn't always precise but it narrows a lot of possible universes which gives scums less wiggle room even when the game should still be wide open.

Now, unlikely tinfoils.

If Csargo is scum, Dp101 is clean, and novice looks pretty damned good, because Csargo was getting a lot of town reads. You don't put the 2nd vote on him there as his partner, especially when he's feeling 50 times peppier this game than most others I've seen. Novice basically lock clear unless it's final 3, in Csargo-scum universe.

Dp101 scum clears the folks that pushed him early, but not late. He looked bad so bussing probs increase after mid-round.

Logic scum looks great for Winston and Monty. Additionally I don't see why Cuth (as Logic's scum buddy) would place his vote in the above manner. Too many other good places to put it. That's a good vote for Logic-Cuth scum team because it is anti-analysis, but I think the odds are very low that's where that vote goes.

Manasi scum might clear someone, but she was never under serious pressure. Even Champ's vote was looking like a mutual early game vote. So not based off of this tally. I might be overlooking something, have to look at Manasi-Champ interactions again to make a judgment.

In this kind of post, please more analysis on the road to that tally (i.e. timing and pushes). Multi-ties are bad for mafia, but they don't control all of them so even when things get awkward it may be tactically unadvisable to deploy wild vote switches for the sake of quickly resolving the danger. In such a case, this sort of skittishness is likely one of the major factors in allowing the distribution to later out individual and grouped scum. So if the Mafia were more circumspect in anticipation of the scenario, the exact process toward the 6-way tie could be more useful to investigate.

For example, as novice is going about, EOD1 saw Csargo and Barto switching onto Jowy (solidly voted by Pizza), then Champ onto Jowy, then DP self-pres from Csargo onto Jowy at Pizza's pressure, then Csargo went back to voting DP and was joined there by Manasi, closing the phase.

One way to see it is that Csargo was being reckless with his towny convictions, another is that this was indeed part of a final push to rescue mafia Csargo. We need to do the rest of the day from after the first stage of DP pressure. It's needed overall and it may help illuminate the events of EOD.

Crimson is very much pushing a wifom read of himself. I don't know why he would do that. His first page and a half of ISO seems oddly self centered, advocating a cop check of himself and teasing about hoping he's not the GF etc. There's a lot of "Read me like this" "Don't read me like this" which to me is strange as any alignment, but for him to keep the focus so very much on himself as scum is probably not a thing that happens. Then again it's very scummy to be very self aware, so ugh.

Said he'd be back before EOD, didn't post again until middle of the Night phase.

I'm at null here very much.

If you want a read, here's one: CSnow is the towniest player in the field so far, but he's not pure, so you can't trust it.