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  1. #1

    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [In Play]

    Quote Originally Posted by Csargo
    Sure, we cooperated, but what did I stand to gain if I was scum? You seem to be looking at D3 in a vacuum, not the overall picture. Manasi is 100% scum, so I tied myself with Jowy to vote with my scum partner on Dp101. In what world does that make logical sense?
    First of all, you're describing the situation inaccurately.

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    Quote Originally Posted by Dp101 View Post
    This wagon formation always lynches a wolf.

    Tally as of post 606:

    Lynch votes
    2 votes: Sooh (BSmith, Manasi)
    2 votes: Champ (crimson_snow, Jowy)
    2 votes: El Barto (Fredwood, Sooh)
    2 votes: Csargo (Dp101, novice)
    2 votes: Montmorency (Logic, Cuthillius)
    2 votes: Jowy (Askthepizzaguy, Csargo)
    1 votes: No Lynch (Montmorency)
    1 votes: Dp101 (El Barto)
    1 votes: Novice (autolycus)
    1 votes: Manasi (Champ)
    1 votes: Logic (Winston Hughes)

    Voting history:
    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 











    It was a 6-way tie with at least 4 townies (Champ/GH and Jowy flipped, plus myself and Sooh). If you were the scum wagon of the lot, then Jowy voted you and Barto and Champ voted Jowy.

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    Quote Originally Posted by Zack View Post
    Official Tally as of #620

    ----

    Day 1 ends in:

    ----

    4 Jowy (Askthepizzaguy, Csargo, El Barto, Champ)

    3 Csargo (Dp101, novice, Jowy)

    2 El Barto (Fredwood, Sooh)
    2 Montmorency (Logic, Cuthillius)
    2 Sooh (BSmith, Manasi)

    1 Askthepizzaguy (Montmorency)
    1 Champ (crimson_snow)
    1 Logic (Winston Hughes)
    1 novice (autolycus)

    ----

    Not Voting: (everyone has voted )

    Not Posting: (everyone has posted )

    ----

    If you notice anything wrong, PM me.


    Then you switched with Manasi (from Sooh) onto DP, and DP was pressured to self-pres onto Jowy.

    You were already set for the round voting Jowy, and so switching to DP actually works at least as well - maybe better - when Manasi backing you up on the sudden switch onto DP was coordinated between partners as opposed to a random scum move by Manasi, which would also make less sense for her to do if it wasn't in conjunction with a partner. Recall that you had Pizza's absolute backing, and he was willing to lynch either Jowy or DP to protect you.

    Second, it was D1.

    I'm not going to hold it against you for misrepresenting EOD1, but you should drop the complaint now. You're not pristine, so stop taking umbrage when I present the most reasonable points only for the fact that they put you in a slightly negative light.


    Why are you ignoring every other possibility? Bussing, offwagon, ect. Why is it focused on me and Fred? There's no point in arguing about this, because there are so many possibilities.
    There are not many possibilities, and this is the likeliest one. Manasi wagon looks strong, Fred presents a case against BSmith but doesn't vote, Cuth comes out voting, Fred and Csargo immediately take advantage. If you really want I'll factor in a possible Cuth scum into all the scenarios, but the bottom line is that if BSmith flips town these events look bad for you and Fred individually, and open the possibility of a pairing. This isn't a remote possibility, this is basic wagon analysis and it's one of the most compelling arguments that can be made on the basis of the context. Of course, if Bsmith flips scum it looks very good for all three initiators of the BSmith wagon. Why is this so difficult to accept for you?

    The bulk of your analysis was directed at me and Fred.
    And novice and Bsmith. That's what I said. That's the point.

    Why? We don't know the alignment of novice. I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility.
    Cuth/DP partnered with novice is not outside the realm of possibility, but I don't see why you would say that wrt the connection between Cuth and DP being stronger than the connection between you and Fred D3 when it doesn't have any relevance to that comparison? Again, I feel like you might have a different question and answer in mind than I do.

    He made a general post about a bunch of different people, along with BSmith.
    He said:

    Quote Originally Posted by Fredwood View Post
    BSmith: His vote is the worst of anyone's for me. It doesn't feel right that a low poster would have that much of an impact on an outcome of a big lynch. It feels like the vote was being directed. It's too beneficially timed and beneficially scum to be made on his own when he hasn't been able to pay much attention to the game to this point and the Pizza v Novice debate was a very content heavy one. Could be an apology patsy vote. It wasn't last second but it did build the distribution to at least make a Pizza lynch more likely.
    That's a pretty strong attack.

    I just think your scope is very limited.
    Only in the sense that I don't cover the entire game and every possible pairing because some players have higher priority than others. Not even Pizza would bother with that kind of analysis between a dozen players at once.
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 



  2. #2
    Member Member Sooh's Avatar
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    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [In Play]

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Then you switched with Manasi (from Sooh) onto DP, and DP was pressured to self-pres onto Jowy.
    Would this not suggest that DP is clean?

  3. #3
    Senior Member Senior Member Yeti Sports 1.5 Champion, Snowboard Slalom Champion, Monkey Jump Champion, Mosquito Kill Champion Csargo's Avatar
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    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [In Play]

    Quote Originally Posted by Zack View Post
    Official Tally as of #620

    ----

    Day 1 ends in:

    ----

    4 Jowy (Askthepizzaguy, Csargo, El Barto, Champ) - 1 Csargo = 3

    3 Csargo (Dp101, novice, Jowy) = 3

    2 El Barto (Fredwood, Sooh)
    2 Montmorency (Logic, Cuthillius)
    2 Sooh (BSmith, Manasi)

    1 Askthepizzaguy (Montmorency)
    1 Champ (crimson_snow)
    1 Logic (Winston Hughes)
    1 novice (autolycus)

    ----

    Not Voting: (everyone has voted )

    Not Posting: (everyone has posted )

    ----

    If you notice anything wrong, PM me.
    I'm tired of this argument, and I don't think it's leading anywhere useful. My entire point was i stood to gain nothing by switching. I increased my probability of being lynched, to vote with Manasi. Had Pizza not browbeat Dp into switching, it was a 50-50 shot I was going to be lynched D1. Had Dp not realized he was third, he wouldn't have switched. I'm not misrepresenting it, you're just not getting the point I guess. I'd never move there as scum.

    I'm not going to continue to argue with you because I know how you are Monty, and I have no desire to keep this up. I don't see the point.
    Quote Originally Posted by Sooh View Post
    I wonder if I can make Csargo cry harder by doing everyone but his ISO.

  4. #4
    Senior Member Senior Member Yeti Sports 1.5 Champion, Snowboard Slalom Champion, Monkey Jump Champion, Mosquito Kill Champion Csargo's Avatar
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    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [In Play]

    Quote Originally Posted by Sooh View Post
    Would this not suggest that DP is clean?
    It doesn't seem like Dp was aware of the vote count because it was 3-3-2 with Dp having the latter. The cfd by Manasi makes him look squeaky clean though if that's what you're talking about.
    Quote Originally Posted by Sooh View Post
    I wonder if I can make Csargo cry harder by doing everyone but his ISO.

  5. #5
    Member Member Sooh's Avatar
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    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [In Play]

    Quote Originally Posted by Csargo View Post
    It doesn't seem like Dp was aware of the vote count because it was 3-3-2 with Dp having the latter. The cfd by Manasi makes him look squeaky clean though if that's what you're talking about.
    Yeah.

  6. #6
    Member Member Sooh's Avatar
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    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [In Play]

    Monty? I have one wish. Can we leave Csargo until BSmith and Novice are resolved?

  7. #7
    Senior Member Senior Member Yeti Sports 1.5 Champion, Snowboard Slalom Champion, Monkey Jump Champion, Mosquito Kill Champion Csargo's Avatar
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    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [In Play]

    I don't want a reprieve Sooh, if you think I'm scum then lynch me tomorrow.
    Quote Originally Posted by Sooh View Post
    I wonder if I can make Csargo cry harder by doing everyone but his ISO.

  8. #8
    Member Member Sooh's Avatar
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    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [In Play]

    Quote Originally Posted by Csargo View Post
    I don't want a reprieve Sooh, if you think I'm scum then lynch me tomorrow.
    I'm not sure, and I would like to see more from you. You're in that gray muddled middle ground with Fred and Monty.

  9. #9

    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [In Play]

    Not much content to work with on BSmith. Both the frequency and style of his posting is similar to previous town games, but I can't find any recent scum games for comparison, and what he's shown here would not require any serious fakery to achieve.

    Where he looks terrible is his votes. Cuth did make a good defence of novice, and pizzaparanoia is a well-documented effect, but that vote smacks of opportunism in the same way Manasi's did, and I feel like a townie BSmith wouldn't be so ready to lynch pizza before giving him a decent shot at catching scum here. Yesterday's events didn't show him in any better a light either, with the move onto Csargo in particular looking like nothing more than an attempt to shove someone else in the frame to save both him and Manasi.

    He'd maybe look a touch better if novice flips town, but it still would be nowhere near clearing, and he'd probably still be in the top 2-3 suspects.

  10. #10

    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [In Play]

    Logic getting an early townpoint off Manasi was what made me suspect the pair of them in the first place, and the fact that they straight ignored each other (and my suspicions) after that made me feel like I'd hit a nerve.

    Only by the time that Manasi's pizza vote had put her squarely in the frame does that change at all, and even then it's all very mild, and nothing that seems at all likely to have contributed to suspicions against Manasi. Throw in the attempted counterwagon on Csargo, and it does not look good at all.

    Where Logic does look better (than BSmith, at least) is on tone. I don't recall ever having seen him as scum, but there is a certain lightness about his posting that feels fairly townie. That, combined with the fact that he'll look far better if novice flips scum, is enough to keep him out of the lynch zone at this stage.

  11. #11

    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [In Play]

    Quote Originally Posted by Sooh View Post
    Monty? I have one wish. Can we leave Csargo until BSmith and Novice are resolved?
    Obbviously. To do otherwise would defeat the point of the analysis.
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 



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