XCOM Mafia [Concluded]

[El Barto]

These two I'll owe you for tomorrow

I'll try to read Monty's pre-mortem myriad-liner to see what can be gleaned from it.

Incidentally, you should all be telling me how right I was about novice being scum and Manasi risking exposure to save him.

Who started encouraging the rumours about him being -allegedly- a third-party member? IIRC only Winston and I outright stated that we didn't want to purchase his bovine excretions regarding that matter.

As well as this one, of course.

what I find from revived!atpg's walls of text tomorrow.

Three big ones, but with a time extension any forum warrior worth his salt can see it through.

[Csargo]

I don't get no respect.

[El Barto]

I don't get no respect.

But I thought I'd already almost cleared you!

OK, amuse me and tell me why, while I make sense of dead people's posts.

[El Barto]

@Csargo: well?

[Csargo]

@Csargo: well?

Look at my actions and tell me why you'd not clear me completely? I wouldn't call you anything other than 100% town, because that's what you are imo.

[El Barto]

Fredwood made that huge post defending(?) novice, that would be a head scratcher if he were scum imo. At least I think he was defending novice in it, I'd have to go back and find the post.

Csargo-san! Be more productive.

[El Barto]

Kind of nuts that everyone's willing to lynch list is so large at this point, frustrating, until I realize that my willing to lynch list is rather large as well.

Still rather high on Cuth, not just because I agreed with the logic, I don't think pushing the lynch on a town Pizza is a scum play there. Even if he's a masterful scum, it's a tough sell. Right now the Manasi/Sooh fight feels more like w/v then the Pizza novice really ever did. I haven't given either of them any serious town cred up til this point, and there hasn't been a ton of reason to change that.

I will say Sooh's recent post about Manasi not knowing the vote count when she voted, basically defending Manasi for being voted for the wrong reason reads rather town to me. I don't know if I'd give credit myself to Manasi on that point now, but the fact that Sooh is at least providing a plausible explanation for that vote even though they've been at each other for 3 phases would bring me to town lean Sooh more then Manasi.

The Novice/Pizza Thunderdome just feel like it lacks closure. Novice just tarnished too much in my eyes at this point, fairly or unfairly (because a lot of it was through no fault of his own). Is it a good reason to lynch someone...no (maybe?), just feels like unfinished business.

Barto...don't know what to do with him. Haven't seen reason to town read him and he's rather boisterous, but aside from people throwing his name out for lynch candidate, there doesn't seem to be any traction on him. So either all those mentions are parroting/distancing or people just don't feel as strongly as they say they do.

BSmith: His vote is the worst of anyone's for me. It doesn't feel right that a low poster would have that much of an impact on an outcome of a big lynch. It feels like the vote was being directed. It's too beneficially timed and beneficially scum to be made on his own when he hasn't been able to pay much attention to the game to this point and the Pizza v Novice debate was a very content heavy one. Could be an apology patsy vote. It wasn't last second but it did build the distribution to at least make a Pizza lynch more likely.

Logic: It's strange that this feels like a POE thing, I can't put him in my town core, and I have reasons for not wanting to put him in my town core, however he's far from the scummiest person on my mind.

I like this post by Fred, actually. His not understanding my gameplay style is natural, and why would scum!Fredwood point out BSmith's behaviour when there were still many players to slander if need be?

[Csargo]

Csargo-san! Be more productive.

I'd lynch Dp over Fredwood every time. I'm seen glimpses of townieness from Dp, but he's never given me all that much reason to townread him imo. Fredwood basically offered up BSmith in a situation that made very little sense to do so. Unless you can point to a good reason where that makes sense.

You never bring auto to lylo here, because he'll be the lynch always.

[El Barto]

The reads here! (I apply the same colour code as before)

Askthepizzaguy- Because I'm never a wolf and scums lynched me.
autolycus- If Novice is scum, this slot is likely a townie, and he's a shitty low-info lynch regardless. Lynch for partner analysis, not lurker punishment.
Csargo- Because he's town.
Cuthillius- Because he's town.
Dp101- Because he's been trending up but he's still not lock.
El Barto- Maybe he shouldn't be this high. But his slot looks astounding if my scums are correct.
GeneralHankerchief- if he doesn't die by final 3/4 lynch here. Not until, for mechanical reasons.
Logic- Because he tried to help me lynch novice. Plus he's way more pure than everyone below this line.
Montmorency- I almost have an actual town read on this guy. That's astounding.
Winston Hughes- Has townie thoughts I can quote for you. He's good, otherwise he'd be higher.
Sooh- resolve Manasi first. If she's scum, Sooh gets a reprieve.

I can go in-depth on most of these, but I already did. If you need a refresher ping me and I'll go find it for you, but if I post info in wall form it's not gonna be read apparently.


You only ever lynch below this line today:

Fredwood- starting tomorrow he can be considered again if and only if novice was town. If novice is scum, don't lynch here until super late game.

If someone mechanically clears themselves in my wolf pile, think about him but I dunno too many town indicators.

really only mentioning him because of the 4 wolf probs.

........

long way down.

.......

novice<----still my top scumbag and he always dies this game barring a miracle, but you need to examine these two
BSmith<----This one
Manasi<----This one

If I am here at all, that means to me that there are four scums likely in the setup, not three.

So start preparing for such a possibility.

Tinfoils on my town core welcome, votes not.

[Dp101]

Feels so weird, seeing the scum to actually be the people who weren't that towny. It seems like every single game I play, the scum ends up being the masterminds at the top of the readslists, rather than just falling down. It's gotten so bad inside my head that I constantly feel I could flip my read on literally everyone, and that isn't helpful. My town game is a mess these days, send help.

[El Barto]

Look at my actions and tell me why you'd not clear me completely?

I still hold you're my most likely town member (outside Cuthillius and myself).

I wouldn't call you anything other than 100% town, because that's what you are imo.

Of course I'm town! I've known that since the game started.
It wasn't me, nobody saw me do it.

I'd lynch Dp over Fredwood every time. I'm seen glimpses of townieness from Dp, but he's never given me all that much reason to townread him imo. Fredwood basically offered up BSmith in a situation that made very little sense to do so. Unless you can point to a good reason where that makes sense.

Yes, yes, I pointed out Fred's post above. Now, Dp101…

You never bring auto to lylo here, because he'll be the lynch always.

So how do you solve autolycus? Waste a mislynch?

For next phase, assuming Logic is town (I'll do an ISO on him and Dp101 tomorrow, it's too late today already), whom would you pair off as a counterwaggon to Auto?

[Csargo]

I still hold you're my most likely town member (outside Cuthillius and myself).

Of course I'm town! I've known that since the game started.
It wasn't me, nobody saw me do it.

Yes, yes, I pointed out Fred's post above. Now, Dp101…

So how do you solve autolycus? Waste a mislynch?

For next phase, assuming Logic is town (I'll do an ISO on him and Dp101 tomorrow, it's too late today already), whom would you pair off as a counterwaggon to Auto?

At this point there's no rectifying his behavior up until this point. You either blindly put him as town or you lynch him. His analysis would clear him, but it's a bit late for that at this point. It'd have to be the some hardcore commitment for that to clear him now. We could blindly go with ATPG's analysis and townread him, and lynch Dp and Fredwood. Idk, I just don't think you can solve him at this point unless you just say screw it and townread him.

[El Barto]

Hmmm. Well, I'll sleep on it.

Does anybody else have any ideas? If I keep doing ISOs by myself I'll just end up talking to my own good self.

[Cuthillius]

Actually, no, not the same result. Lynching auto today means we still have him tomorrow. Lynching me today means you lynch auto tomorrow, and I am a dead townie.

Vote: Csargo

you're saying you believe auto's claim here 100%, right?

[Logic]

you're saying you believe auto's claim here 100%, right?

I was going off the assumptions that Csargo was making in the post I quoted as well as the one immediately prior.

[Logic]

Before I flip town, I'd like you guys to consider that I've been hammering against novice since ATPG flipped. I heavily shaded Csargo. Dp101 suggested a CFD, Bsmith joined, and DP contemplated joining, but did not.

I personally don't think this clears me, but I think it is VERY risky for one hypothetical scum (me) to shade someone (Csargo in this example) and then have another scum (Bsmith) jump on that CFD as soon as it is proposed (by DP101) and then have those 2 scum off on the attempted CFD all alone.

I claimed my role (Advent Trooper) not long after Monty called for claims (the first time) where I was joined by Cuthilius as a Viper, El Barto as the same role as myself and Sooh. Anyone that is a third sectoid should believe El Barto.

Lock town
Cuthilius

Near lock town
Csargo
El Barto

Suspicious characters
Fredwood
Dp101
Autolycus

[autolycus]

In addition to continuing to look for another XCOM, I also think we need to start thinking about who might be 3rd party anti-town. I agree that I should not be around at lyol unless you're willing to just trust that I'm town to the hilt. Accordingly, I'll say flat out that cuth should poison me tonight. Since we're at even numbers in the day currently, we don't lose a day from doing that (assuming no more than one other kill per night), and it means we don't waste a day on lynching me.

[Zack]

Day is over, don't post.

[Zack]

Official Tally as of #2005

----

6 Logic (auto, dp101, cuth, fred, barto, csargo)

2 auto (winston, logic)

----

Day 5 ends in:

final tally is the same

[Zack]

End of Day 5.


Logic was killed by the unruly mob.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Logic was an ADVENT Trooper!

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

He was town!

-------

It is now Night Five.

Night 5 ends in:

-------

Living Players: 7

@autolycus
@Csargo
@Cuthillius
@Dp101
@El Barto
@Fredwood
@Winston Hughes

------

Dead Players: 10

Jowy - Faceless
crimson_snow - Muton
Askthepizzaguy - Sectoid
GeneralHankerchief - Sectoid
Manasi - Grenadier
Sooh - ADVENT Trooper
BSmith - Psi Operative
Montmorency - ADVENT Shieldbearer
novice - Sharpshooter
Logic - ADVENT Trooper

[Zack]

@Walrein has replaced @Dp101.

Do not discuss substitutions.

[Zack]

oh shit you can post btw

lol my bad

[El Barto]

oh shit you can post btw

lol my bad

[El Barto]

@Walrein: any contributions welcome.

[Ampharos]

I have none thus far and will have none until I've read the thread later tonight.

hi btw

[El Barto]

Hi to you as well. Are you mafia?

[Csargo]

I have none thus far and will have none until I've read the thread later tonight.

hi btw

Hi!

[El Barto]

I've decided to revisit my earlier reads post.
Now there's seven of us. I think I might be the kill, if Cuth isn't. Unless, of course, the remaining scummioso

There haven't been any extra kills so far that would hint at an anti-town third party.

@Cuthillius: No extra doses of poison? It'd help solve the auto-man.

Now there's only seven of us, presumably 6 by SoD, 5 at EoD, 4 at SoD, 3 at EoD - endgame?

autolycus - 6 posts
Csargo - 310 posts
Cuthillius - 134 posts
Dp101 - 204 posts (now replaced by Walrein who has yet to post)
El Barto - 148 posts
Fredwood - 91 posts
Winston Hughes - 58 posts

Winston hasn't posted since my last analysis and that is a bit worrisome from my POV.

A revised version of my tallies, with some new comments:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Day One:

4 Jowy (Askthepizzaguy, El Barto, Champ, Dp101)

2 Csargo (novice, Jowy)
2 Dp101 (Manasi, Csargo)
2 El Barto (Fredwood, Sooh)
2 Montmorency (Logic, Cuthillius)

1 Askthepizzaguy (Montmorency)
1 Champ (crimson_snow)
1 Logic (Winston Hughes)
1 novice (autolycus)
1 Sooh (BSmith)

If these principles I mentioned earlier hold:

1. not voting together
2. not voting each other, because the lynch required a plurality and an energetic townie pulling a Chinese fire drill on someone might have just seen a scummioso lynched with three or four votes. Or even two, with a random tiebreaker (!).
3. trying to vote with a townie
4. try not to vote with the actual lynch in order to prevent information from getting out.
   We might add a
5. vote first

the scummo is Winston, Dp101/Walrein or Fredwood. The last one of the principles is the weakest, seeing as how the scum later hung around for EoDs as long as they stood a chance.

auto looks quite good, at one point he was voting novice with Askthepizzaguy and didn't move his vote off him. I've already said a 2-vote lynch might have happened.

I earlier said this:
This would give some town credibility to Dp101, Csargo, possibly Winston. autolycus starts by voting scum!novice alone which would break the pattern (notice how, when Manasi was pressed on D3, as I pointed out, she tried to divert attention off herself and BSmith onto him -as I've said, Manasi's been sticking to the same recipe she used last game a bit clumsily this game and it's been failing her) -all in all, autolycus would seem to be cleared, at least by D1 standards of course.
Which still stands.

Day Two:

6 Askthepizzaguy (Cuthillius, Dp101, BSmith, Fredwood, novice, Manasi)
6 novice (Askthepizzaguy, Logic, Montmorency, El Barto, Csargo, crimson_snow)

2 Manasi (Sooh, Winston Hughes)

1 Csargo (GeneralHankerchief)

Csargo was around and didn't change his vote, he's practically town.
Csargo could have said OMGUS, vote: General ChamperChief! at any time, and he had the exchange there.
Logic is town.

Winston here gains some town cred by keeping his vote on Manasi. Fredwood and Walrein/Dp101 remain uncleared.

autolycus didn't post all day. The mafia team appears to have a penchant for micromanagement. They wouldn't have let this pass. On D3 novice and BSmith tried to keep up activity in order not to look as if they'd entered anti-spew mode, which they did do on D4.

D3, with the top two waggons being on scum and Manasi's flip doomed novice:

6 Manasi (Sooh, autolycus, Winston Hughes, El Barto, novice, BSmith)

5 BSmith (Cuth, Fred, Csargo, Dp101, Monty)

1 autolycus (Manasi)
1 Csargo (Logic)

Basically anybody and everybody in D3 can hide safely. I'd have to analyse the changing waggons to see whether anybody other than Manasi tried a counterwaggon (Logic doesn't count, he's town).

D4:

7 BSmith (Monty, Dp101, Logic, Fredwood, Cuth, Winston, Csargo)

1 Fredwood (auto)
1 novice (El Barto)

----

Not Voting: novice

Not Posting: BSmith

As I said, novice and BSmith entered anti-spew mode, with novice making a token effort of pretending to be a separate member/third party/traitor.

I still say that it is really, really quite ballsy for autolycus to not join the waggon if scum.

(See #1992 for the original)

Based on the above, the last scummo would be Fredwood or Dp101/Walrein (let's steer clear of discussing the replacement, as Zack has said).
Let their personal posting history be checked. But I'll do that tomorrow.

[El Barto]

Also, does anybody really have any thoughts on whether there really are any third parties or not?

Last thought before logging off:

6 Askthepizzaguy (Cuthillius, Dp101, BSmith, Fredwood, novice, Manasi)
6 novice (Askthepizzaguy, Logic, Montmorency, El Barto, Csargo, crimson_snow)

I cannot tell which of Dp101 or Fredwood was the bandwaggonist extraordinnaire - Fred who's in the middle of the other three, or Dp101 helping start the bandwaggon rolling.

[El Barto]

Random Gods tell me to vote: Sooh though I am tempted to vote for one of the no lynchers.

This would mean that if Fred was scum he would have been told by BSmith what a D1 random vote was so that he wouldn't accidentally get too much attention. There's always the danger of having a tracker or roleblocker about…

I can temptatively say that in 24 hours I'll be voting for Dp101.