Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

[spmetla]

Funny how that works, they didn't build any fences when their workers came here to undercut our wages, pay no taxes and rob our cars and homes. But God forbid there's an EU system that they think they don't only benefit from. Then the fences go up within days. How about we build a wall and throw all the eastern euro workers out who "stole our jobs"? If they want to play that game, we should do it, too.

That would probably have gone over well in the mid-90s after the initial 'high' of the Mauerfall passed. Fact is though that East Europeans are culturally more similar to Germans and less likely to end up of forming cultural enclave ghettos due to easier transition into the overall society to include upward mobility. I know I've seen enough sketch comedy from Britain about all the Polish and Hungarian workers that took British jobs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qd8oX5NJt84

While open borders sounds good there always needs to be a limit, if the whole of Afghanistan or Nigeria wanted to move to Germany would that be okay? Just because someone wants to move to country X doesn't mean they have a right to. Closed borders and purely ethnic criteria are equally wrong, no need to go back to the Nazi or Communist periods. It is possible to restrict the immigration of non-EU migrants without being racists. The refugee crisis does need fixing but allowing all to enter and forcing the member states to accommodate a quota of refugees isn't the answer.
Unfortunately the solution would require Germany/EU to engage in a active foreign policy in Libya and Syria which includes the possibility of military occupation/peacekeeping until security is well enough established for local governance to be effective and responsive. Leaving the security and stability of Europe's periphery to the US and Russia is obviously not working for the EU which is directly impacted.

As for the election, it will be interesting to see the SPD and AfD as the 'opposition' seeing as the SPD opted out of a Grand Coalition. I don't envision them working together much if at all but seeing German politics with less consensus and more debate will be interesting to say the least.

[Fragony]

nice and balanced

[Husar]

That would probably have gone over well in the mid-90s after the initial 'high' of the Mauerfall passed. Fact is though that East Europeans are culturally more similar to Germans and less likely to end up of forming cultural enclave ghettos due to easier transition into the overall society to include upward mobility. I know I've seen enough sketch comedy from Britain about all the Polish and Hungarian workers that took British jobs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qd8oX5NJt84

While open borders sounds good there always needs to be a limit, if the whole of Afghanistan or Nigeria wanted to move to Germany would that be okay? Just because someone wants to move to country X doesn't mean they have a right to. Closed borders and purely ethnic criteria are equally wrong, no need to go back to the Nazi or Communist periods. It is possible to restrict the immigration of non-EU migrants without being racists. The refugee crisis does need fixing but allowing all to enter and forcing the member states to accommodate a quota of refugees isn't the answer.
Unfortunately the solution would require Germany/EU to engage in a active foreign policy in Libya and Syria which includes the possibility of military occupation/peacekeeping until security is well enough established for local governance to be effective and responsive. Leaving the security and stability of Europe's periphery to the US and Russia is obviously not working for the EU which is directly impacted.

As for the election, it will be interesting to see the SPD and AfD as the 'opposition' seeing as the SPD opted out of a Grand Coalition. I don't envision them working together much if at all but seeing German politics with less consensus and more debate will be interesting to say the least.

It's not just about accommodating them all, it's also about helping Italy and Greece who get "flooded" with refugees regardless of fences.
I get that we can't just invite all of Africa and the ME to come here, the problem is that if the refugees get processedby a few countries which are overwhelmed. The fence option also came a bit late once a huge number of people were already there. They had to be helped and processed by someone. And of course the xenophobic approach always "works", the more you openly hate foreigners, the easier it becomes to claim they hate you back.

It's all just more "Me, me, me, me!"

Spain also gets overrun sometimes and they resort toillegally sending people back sometimes. What would we do if we did set up refugee centers in the affected regions? Would Poland let Italy, Greece and Spain do it alone again or would they also send money and personnel? Why are they not doing it now already if they have so much better ideas?

Also the forecasts show the CDU did lose quite a few percent, AfD is third strongest.
The SPD already excluded another "big coalition" with the CDU. That leaves the so-called Jamaica-coalition of CDU, FDP and Greens as the most likely new government. If they can't reach an agreement it might get even more interesting.

https://twitter.com/tagesschau/statu...469570/photo/1

edit: slightly different forecast plus article in English: http://www.spiegel.de/international/...a-1169587.html

[spmetla]

The processing bit is the problem, they should be sent back right to the country they departed from. If they tried to crossed over from Libya to Italy send them right back to Libya, don't even let them step foot in Italy. This would dump them in the lap of the 'smugglers' that profit from the current arrangement and kill that business line for them. The current system where they are 'rescued' just off the Libyan coast and then brought into Italy is a farce. Same goes for Morocco which tolerates the 'invasion' of the Spanish enclaves for political reasons. You don't see this problem happening in Algeria because Algeria does not tolerate it.

The bigger problem is how to stabilize Libya which needs the EU to probably invade, occupy, and then transition to self government again with all the problems of war, neo-colonialism, and violence that would entail.

The little countries are being selfish, yes, but that is their right too. Italy, Greece, and Spain shouldn't have to deal with it alone and those little countries should be contributing to a much larger and more effective FRONTEX which sends these illegal migrants right back to Turkey, Libya, and Morocco. The current solution of allowing them all in and then 'processing' them is essentially an open door because the 'processed' migrants are already let in and if deportation is determined for the individual one can only hope that they don't just go to another EU country to try again. Remember this is THE issue that essentially caused the Brexit. No migrant open door by Merkel and the Brits would more likely have elected to remain within. Understandably that's why Germany and France seek to punish the UK to discourage their recent EU joinees from leaving thereby draining it of it's cheaper Eastern Bloc labor pool.

The xenophobic approach is a reaction to poor policy. At least the political system in Germany allows a party like the AfD to do its thing. It'd be far worse if those elements high-jacked an existing party and changed it like the tea party faction did to the Republicans in the US giving us a President Trump.

[Sarmatian]

Even if she persuades Greens and FDP, Merkel is looking at a very fragile government.

[Montmorency]

The processing bit is the problem, they should be sent back right to the country they departed from. If they tried to crossed over from Libya to Italy send them right back to Libya, don't even let them step foot in Italy. This would dump them in the lap of the 'smugglers' that profit from the current arrangement and kill that business line for them. The current system where they are 'rescued' just off the Libyan coast and then brought into Italy is a farce. Same goes for Morocco which tolerates the 'invasion' of the Spanish enclaves for political reasons. You don't see this problem happening in Algeria because Algeria does not tolerate it.

The bigger problem is how to stabilize Libya which needs the EU to probably invade, occupy, and then transition to self government again with all the problems of war, neo-colonialism, and violence that would entail.

The little countries are being selfish, yes, but that is their right too. Italy, Greece, and Spain shouldn't have to deal with it alone and those little countries should be contributing to a much larger and more effective FRONTEX which sends these illegal migrants right back to Turkey, Libya, and Morocco. The current solution of allowing them all in and then 'processing' them is essentially an open door because the 'processed' migrants are already let in and if deportation is determined for the individual one can only hope that they don't just go to another EU country to try again. Remember this is THE issue that essentially caused the Brexit. No migrant open door by Merkel and the Brits would more likely have elected to remain within. Understandably that's why Germany and France seek to punish the UK to discourage their recent EU joinees from leaving thereby draining it of it's cheaper Eastern Bloc labor pool.

The xenophobic approach is a reaction to poor policy. At least the political system in Germany allows a party like the AfD to do its thing. It'd be far worse if those elements high-jacked an existing party and changed it like the tea party faction did to the Republicans in the US giving us a President Trump.

Under the Refugee conventions I believe processing is obligated if they are found within the territory of the country. I think if they implemented your disposition, it would only remove a few thousand from the pool, since most migrant seacraft do not experience distress or land without being intercepted.

One of the problems of occupying Libya now - besides all the other ones - is that you would seem to need a UN-sponsored mission that backs one of the factions, presumably the already UN-sponsored GNA. Also, both factions are currently being played off each other by Putin's Russia. Or if you don't have one side, even no sides, then how do you secure the Libyan coasts and ports?

I think a coordinated EU response in the Mediterranean and the North Med coast is more approachable than investing heavily into a Libyan occupation, which doesn't even get at the source of most refugees down that channel.

It is wrong to assume that the EU leadership wants to "punish" Britain in order to prevent members from leaving. Those members currently don't want to leave; the point is to prevent those members from trying to leverage special treatment and exemptions the way the UK did.

Even if she persuades Greens and FDP, Merkel is looking at a very fragile government.

This DW tool for the election results is handy. There doesn't seem to be any possible coalition to eject the CSU/CDU if AfD don't participate, unless it's a coalition of all 'not-CSU/CDU', which won't happen. So doesn't Merkel have the upper hand in forming a minority government if she chooses to?

Aside from AfD the clear winner is the FDP. Default conservative fallback?

[spmetla]

Under the Refugee conventions I believe processing is obligated if they are found within the territory of the country. I think if they implemented your disposition, it would only remove a few thousand from the pool, since most migrant seacraft do not experience distress or land without being intercepted.

Most migrants are not refugees as defined by the UN but migrating for economic purposes, I believe the number that came out in the summer was 70% of the migrants crossing the med are not definition refugees fleeing war or violence.

I will stay out of this thread regarding this topic after this so I don't completely derail this when there's already a thread for migrants/refugees.

I was using the same DW tool for the results, it is a good tool. I also liked their guide on the different 'color options' for coalitions. It will be a very trying time for Merkel, she's said she doesn't want to form a minority government so she'll have to give some strong concessions I imagine like happened in Britain.

German election: Can the Greens and FDP join Angela Merkel in a coalition?
The Greens and the Free Democrats have traditionally been bitter rivals in Germany. But will these two smaller parties put aside their differences for a chance at a coalition with the conservatives and a share in power?
http://www.dw.com/en/german-election...ion/a-40507075

[Fragony]

FDP and the Greens? That would be a laugh. Only constant so far is that nobody wants to work with AFD, which is understandable, too many questionabe folks, too unstable internally. Minority government an option in Germany? That's how christian-democrats and liberals could form a government with support from the PVV as long as they didn't piss Wilders of too much (didn't work)

[Sarmatian]

This DW tool for the election results is handy. There doesn't seem to be any possible coalition to eject the CSU/CDU if AfD don't participate, unless it's a coalition of all 'not-CSU/CDU', which won't happen. So doesn't Merkel have the upper hand in forming a minority government if she chooses to?

Aside from AfD the clear winner is the FDP. Default conservative fallback?

She does, but FDP and Greens together is going to be weird.

With such a weird electoral system, I'm not sure who "owns" the seat in the end, party or the individual member. If it is the latter, having just over 50% can be a bit of a problem when pushing legislation.

[Husar]

She does, but FDP and Greens together is going to be weird.

With such a weird electoral system, I'm not sure who "owns" the seat in the end, party or the individual member. If it is the latter, having just over 50% can be a bit of a problem when pushing legislation.

Depends on what you mean by own. Technically the members of the parliament cannot be forced to vote along party lines, but in most cases they do. The party also cannot take away their mandate once it is given (so I guess you would say the members "own the seat"). It does not seem to matter whether they were directly elected or placed by being on a party list. I just found cases where parliamentarians switched party affiliation but kept their seat. That's a loss for their former party and a gain for their new party. Alternatively they can become independent. Of course such an action may make it less likely for them to get another mandate in the next election.

The cases I found were mostly on state level though, I'd think a coalition between the three parties could work. As I told Fragony, the Greens can be flexible with their morals and neither the CDU nor the FDP are strictly against environmental protection. I'm pretty sure they all believe in man-made global warming etc. The biggest debate topics I would expect around how far the FDP can go with corporate cronyism, how high the student loans can be that the FDP cronies can give to poorer families to suck them dry even more and how many more public services and infrastructure we should privatize...