Chess - Game Thread [Concluded]

**Fredwood** · 10-12-2017, 08:46

Also, you had Chox below GH for that upcoming day 2, which falls in line with the concerted attempt that Zack and GH had to push Chox day 2. Your post about your GH/Chox theory would further back this up

Originally Posted by Slaan

I have a simple theory about GH rn. The Wild West game on MU was in a similar D1 state if Chox is mafia with two mafia being in the crosshairs of town right from the start and both got killed in the first two days. GH was the third wolf this game and bussed the partner that died D2 on D1 but tried to get off him D2 and onto Fred instead... in the end nothing worked out quite right (though the game was very close till then end, ending with a coinflip costing GH the game)

Anyway, so now he looks at a similar game with 2 of his partners (potentially) being in towns crosshairs yet again.. and he doesnt want to be with his back against the wall again so he starts earlier to try and get town off his partners, delay their lynches if at all possible.

Thats my working theory anyway rn in regards to GH... though I would always lynch Chox over him tomorrow

At the time I contested this theory.

1st because a Logic bus doesn't help GH because he can use the overtly contrarian stance to prop up WIFOM.

2nd because that wasn't a move designed to save Chox. Chox was in no danger of being lynched, in fact the only ones really pushing him were Zack and GH, so it's clouding the game state implying there was two actual wagons. It also further increased the chances of the Chox lynch Day 2 so it did nothing to distract away from a scum teammate. You were playing the role of the "logical townie" to try and see if the Chox and GH are scum theory works but never was able to fully pursue it because distancing.

It's also interesting to not the places of GH and Chox on your post here. This seems to indicate you want to Lynch GH next phase but are willing to switch to Chox, but the post you make later is one that indicates Chox is your number one suspect in a tier by himself.

**Askthepizzaguy** · 10-12-2017, 08:49

This is why I don't play on a lot of other sites anymore. I come home to the org so I don't have to be verbally abused if I guess wrong.

**Askthepizzaguy** · 10-12-2017, 08:51

I can actually say my tinfoil hat theories and put my emotions into those cases and really try, and not worry about what if I'm wrong to an abnormal extent.

If the only cases I can make are the ones where the conclusion is obvious, consensus, or straightforward in a game with championship-caliber tacticians and strategists, I don't know what I'm friggen doing here.

**Askthepizzaguy** · 10-12-2017, 08:54

This game is literally full of a half dozen forums worth of nominated and finalist "champions" who were acknowledged by their peers as being exceptionally difficult to find as wolves and extraordinary as townies.

Yeah, I think it's possible someone fooled me this game. I'm sorry for that compliment.

**Slaan** · 10-12-2017, 16:59

Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy

I can actually say my tinfoil hat theories and put my emotions into those cases and really try, and not worry about what if I'm wrong to an abnormal extent.

If the only cases I can make are the ones where the conclusion is obvious, consensus, or straightforward in a game with championship-caliber tacticians and strategists, I don't know what I'm friggen doing here.

Hm I think it's not entirely the case itself that drove me to make this post but the way you pushed it... 'the jig is up', 'that's gg', 'I've got him'... the way you portraited it as the absolute truth even though it's 100% false is what made me angry. I shouldnt have gotten angry but that's partly what pushed me... again sorry :(

**Fredwood** · 10-12-2017, 08:55

Originally Posted by Fredwood

1st because a Logic bus doesn't help GH because he can use the overtly contrarian stance to prop up WIFOM.

Should read differently. GH gains no town equity for bussing Logic there, he can buy some WIFOM points by taking the contrarian stand on logic. It locked him into Chox though unless he could present doubt about weakly town read players but the execution was a misfire, which did force scum to push Chox day 2.

**Slaan** · 10-12-2017, 16:53

Originally Posted by Fredwood

Also, you had Chox below GH for that upcoming day 2, which falls in line with the concerted attempt that Zack and GH had to push Chox day 2. Your post about your GH/Chox theory would further back this up

At the time I contested this theory.

1st because a Logic bus doesn't help GH because he can use the overtly contrarian stance to prop up WIFOM.

2nd because that wasn't a move designed to save Chox. Chox was in no danger of being lynched, in fact the only ones really pushing him were Zack and GH, so it's clouding the game state implying there was two actual wagons. It also further increased the chances of the Chox lynch Day 2 so it did nothing to distract away from a scum teammate. You were playing the role of the "logical townie" to try and see if the Chox and GH are scum theory works but never was able to fully pursue it because distancing.

It's also interesting to not the places of GH and Chox on your post here. This seems to indicate you want to Lynch GH next phase but are willing to switch to Chox, but the post you make later is one that indicates Chox is your number one suspect in a tier by himself.

Idk how good my theory on this was, not too good considering Chox claim today... I stand behind my reasoning/thoughts at the time though. I would totally have lynched Chox over GH D2 for the simple reason that a good player such as GH would be a boon to have around longer to contribute in case we were wrong on his scumread. If we were wrong on Chox we'd loose a lynch but not much solving. It rarely looks good but I always prefer to go after the low hanging fruits as town because having them around lategame just causes headaches as low posters are notoriously hard to read in my experience...

**Askthepizzaguy** · 10-12-2017, 17:58

Zack/GH pushing Monty before switching to dp in the cfd portion of the game could also have been distancing, as it's unlikely Monty was ever in serious danger and Zack and GH both knew they'd be looking kinda scummy after defending Logic all round.

Pushing against a fairly townie looking partner, while being guilty looking scums, without actually putting him in danger, is actually a plausible gambit for both of them.

That was the only other thing I saw in Monty's iso.

**Askthepizzaguy** · 10-12-2017, 17:59

Will someone please iso Monty and tell me if I should still have him in my town.

He's really in my blind spot, and I can't keep re-reading this game. I haven't slept at all today, because this game is stressing me the

out.

**Sooh** · 10-12-2017, 21:06

Vote count:

Slaan (1): Montmorency,

Not voting (9): Choxorn, Fredwood, Xiahou, El Barto, Cuthillius, Dp101, Csargo Slaan, Pizza,

With 10 players there are 6 to hammer.

EOD4:

**Fredwood** · 10-13-2017, 00:31

Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy

Will someone please iso Monty and tell me if I should still have him in my town.

He's really in my blind spot, and I can't keep re-reading this game. I haven't slept at all today, because this game is stressing me the

out.

I'm in the middle of it and I'm pretty much where I was before, he kind of feels villa but has nothing that means he can't be bad and a few things that mean he could.

I keep coming back to Slaan's placement of him. If Town Slaan is expanding POE in order to make sure he's not getting blindsided, there's nothing in Monty's Day 1 to lock clear him and I certainly don't see anything that means he couldn't be partners with Zack.

However there is some concern
#98 #170 is some suss on Zack. Accuses him of buddying DP, and also calls Zack for saying one thing but doing another.

#153 Votes Zack, but not in fully in a suss tone kind of egging him and Winston on. So again looks good, but not as good as it could be

#830 looks both bad and good at the same time, it's a hard suss backed up by a case, but he backs of and leaves it for later. The game state means it makes sense as either alignment, at least to me.

#808 Looks interesting in retrospect, not really sure what to do with it.

#919 Unvotes Zack and then votes Chox. Nothing really important here I guess other then he's the first to vote Chox I think, I can't tell, but he said himself he initiated the Chox wagon later. Also, wouldn't push Zack against Logic but willing to push Chox against the Logic.

#1017. Looks the worst from day one in retrospect. I think you called Slaan or Logic out for the tying the wagon stuff, when Monty was for it as well. Slaan, interestingly enough, susses the hell out of Monty for this in #1025.

It's pre associating Logic and Chox. However now we know a Chox lynch day 1 means Logic is the only possible lynch day 2. Could be seen as at least trying to buy a day to get the strongarm off. It's problematic for sure, but I have made ill-conceived posts as villa before, but I'm not that good of a player.

#1240 This was a post I remember and thought it originally looked good. Loses a bit with the last sentence. Says That it's only possible that one of Zack or GH is scum (with the qualifier of tentative conclusion...I'm being pedantic but you don't tentatively state an absolute like that /end English rant)

#1245 I still like this post, but a case could be made for prearguing suss.

There's another post, but for some reason my search of him returned only 4 pages, I might have to iso me to find what bugged me at the time because the meat of the post just lost me and I believe I sad something at the time.

Again This is maybe a bit confbias, but I don't know why Town Slaan would make up reads. He forgot his read on Winston, he forgot his hard suss on Monty, but now is lock clearing him, even though Monty has been pretty much in the same boat in my eyes since N1 for the last post I pointed to. In addition the F5 terminology when referring to Monty feels clunky AF. Am I crazy for thinking he wants a F3 with him, Monty and Bart?

I will say my Monty read has taken a bit of a hit (interesting that what I railed on Slaan today for is now what I feel like I'm doing with Monty). I don't really know now, I may have done the ISO all wrong but I did start out viewing his suss of Zack as a GL but devolved into looking for scummy behavior. I can see elements of crafty wolf in his day 1, but Slaan's day 4 has felt so bad that I can't really fully read Monty with Slaan around and I still think I'll be confused after. Then at the same time this whole day has been pretty much me, you, slaan and monty going back and forth, with the Chox bomb dropped in and a lot of passive observation by most everyone else in the thread.

Sigh. I'm a liar I guess there was more then one way I consider voting for Bart or Chox today. At this point I want to be the lynch today.

**Fredwood** · 10-13-2017, 00:38

Also that took a lot effin longer then I thought.

**Montmorency** · 10-13-2017, 00:39

Originally Posted by Fredwood

#1240 This was a post I remember and thought it originally looked good. Loses a bit with the last sentence. Says That it's only possible that one of Zack or GH is scum (with the qualifier of tentative conclusion...I'm being pedantic but you don't tentatively state an absolute like that /end English rant)

That's not quite what I said.

So one thing about the early game that is strange is that GH is popping in once every big block of posts (e.g. 100) to ask a couple of questions, or make an hostile observation, or banter and vote. I'm not sure GH should be such of an itinerant normally, but maybe that's just unique timing and the regularity is pareidolia. Also, his range of substantive interactions is kind of limited to Zack and 'broadcast into thread'. I don't think that suggests partnership with Zack however, since at the very least IIRC GH and Zack like to get as much facetime with players other than their partners as possible in games they roll scum in. Without Zack ISO I think that spread matches Zack in this game better than GH. They would probably do similarly as town, but the point is that as scum GH is being rather more conservative.

Tentative conclusion: One and only one of these is scum.