Trump Thread

[Husar]

Espionage hardly works to the criminal standard of law. We do not have, and will not have for decades, what additional intelligence was provided to other countries for them to make the decision. Did, on the balance of probabilities, the Russians do it? Yes, probably. Like the other assassinations of defectors on UK soil.

Due process is and always has been an ideal as opposed to something countries follow all the time. It would be very difficult for it to be any other way.

Given France, Britain and the USA are not currently trying to bankrupt Germany and the USSR is not trying to subvert Germany I hope that there is no need for Fascism at this point in time.

I agree that it looks like the Russian MO, but that raises some questions for me:

1. Doesn't that also make it easy to frame them? Some say for example that this is also a nice distraction for May, who keeps failing in the Brexit negotiations.

2. The evidence for WMDs was also available to everyone in 2003 and it still turned out to be fake, so can these secret agencies really be trusted, especially when scientists openly say they can't trace it to Russia (or anyone)? Apparently they can be manipulated for or blinded by political goals.

3. Exactly, the known MO, why is the response so strong now given that Russia has done this before and I don't recall the enormous outrage and expelling of diplomats in the other cases?

4. I also read that the guy was previously jailed for high treason in Russia (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43291394t), so why would they kill him now in the UK if they could have done it long ago and much more quietly in Russia?

[rory_20_uk]

I agree that it looks like the Russian MO, but that raises some questions for me:

1. Doesn't that also make it easy to frame them? Some say for example that this is also a nice distraction for May, who keeps failing in the Brexit negotiations.

2. The evidence for WMDs was also available to everyone in 2003 and it still turned out to be fake, so can these secret agencies really be trusted, especially when scientists openly say they can't trace it to Russia (or anyone)? Apparently they can be manipulated for or blinded by political goals.

3. Exactly, the known MO, why is the response so strong now given that Russia has done this before and I don't recall the enormous outrage and expelling of diplomats in the other cases?

4. I also read that the guy was previously jailed for high treason in Russia (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43291394t), so why would they kill him now in the UK if they could have done it long ago and much more quietly in Russia?

1. True. Rather cold blooded and given nothing like this was done in far bleaker times it makes it seem unlikely. Russia almost certainly killed the other spy with polonium. Even when at war with Argentina the war was fought around the islands and not elsewhere. It would also be a massive gamble since how was May to know the EU / USA etc would back her and not ignore the little island and its little problem? Franky, why on earth would they support her?

2. No, the intelligence was fine - i.e. made no conclusions of any sort and it was that piece of shit Tony that lied with his dodgy dossier. Bush was spoiling for a fight after Saddam made his daddy look bad.

3. Things are often overlooked when the two sides are trying to make nice: Germany / Poland etc needed Russian gas not so long ago. Principles are scant solace when one is freezing. Things have changed and the world is awash with cheap gas from fracking making the USA an exporter not an importer. Russian gas can be replaced.

4. I've no idea. I would speculate that Putin expected this to destabilise the UK / EU / USA rather than get all three (with others) to do the same thing. Most commentators appear to agree that Putin really fumbled this one - seeming to unite a lot of the world for offing some washed up spook.

[Pannonian]

I agree that it looks like the Russian MO, but that raises some questions for me:

1. Doesn't that also make it easy to frame them? Some say for example that this is also a nice distraction for May, who keeps failing in the Brexit negotiations.

2. The evidence for WMDs was also available to everyone in 2003 and it still turned out to be fake, so can these secret agencies really be trusted, especially when scientists openly say they can't trace it to Russia (or anyone)? Apparently they can be manipulated for or blinded by political goals.

3. Exactly, the known MO, why is the response so strong now given that Russia has done this before and I don't recall the enormous outrage and expelling of diplomats in the other cases?

4. I also read that the guy was previously jailed for high treason in Russia (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43291394t), so why would they kill him now in the UK if they could have done it long ago and much more quietly in Russia?

The evidence in 2003 wasn't convincing even at the time, except to politicians who gain from tubthumping. It was clear at the time that Britain entered the war to follow the US, with anything else a distant second. Whatever dodgy dossier was just a facade of an excuse behind the real reason, to follow Bush and hoping to have some degree of influence over what happens next.

[Gilrandir]

4. I also read that the guy was previously jailed for high treason in Russia (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43291394t), so why would they kill him now in the UK if they could have done it long ago and much more quietly in Russia?

As an element of scare tactics - "look what would happen to anyone who would try to defect to the other side. It doesn't matter where they might have fled the sacrosant retaliation will find them anywhere."

[Husar]

As an element of scare tactics - "look what would happen to anyone who would try to defect to the other side. It doesn't matter where they might have fled the sacrosant retaliation will find them anywhere."

Well if it's a scare tactic, then Russia obviously doesn't care about the fallout it gets and we might as well keep the diplomats here. Empty gestures?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Well if it's a scare tactic, then Russia obviously doesn't care about the fallout it gets and we might as well keep the diplomats here. Empty gestures?

If all that happens is a few dozen PNGs then Russia won't really care, nor should it. As far as I can tell, the ONLY thing that has Putin and company upset is that they didn't predict the West would do the PNG thing in as coordinated a fashion as they did and without telegraphing it as much as usual.

[Gilrandir]

Well if it's a scare tactic, then Russia obviously doesn't care about the fallout it gets and we might as well keep the diplomats here. Empty gestures?

It doesn't matter why Russia poisoned the Skripals (btw, "skripal" is a Ukrainian name signifying "violinist"). What matters is that chemical weapons were used by another country to kill YOUR people on YOUR territory.

[Husar]

It doesn't matter why Russia poisoned the Skripals (btw, "skripal" is a Ukrainian name signifying "violinist"). What matters is that chemical weapons were used by another country to kill YOUR people on YOUR territory.

Yeah, well, I'mnot British and they're leaving the EU, they don't want to be my people.
That aside, you're right, you basically have to do a striptease to get on a plane and despite all these measures and the existence of counter esqionage, somehow the Russians seem to feel right at home in the UK, killing people left and right and buying half the country (other half is bought by arab oil sheikhs apparently).

I'm just glad this will be happening outside the EU soon...

[Gilrandir]

Yeah, well, I'mnot British and they're leaving the EU, they don't want to be my people.

I didn't mean you personally, impersonal "one" would have suited better, but it didn't seem so emphatic as "you".

you basically have to do a striptease to get on a plane...

That was because you had a woman guard at the airport.

I'm just glad this will be happening outside the EU soon...

There's no guarantee. It may happen anywhere, having pushed Britain out won't solve the problem.

[Shaka_Khan]