EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

[Pannonian]

You would put pride above security?

I've seen the quote "52 has been rounded up to 100, while 48 has been rounded down to 0". The close numbers should mean a moderate solution that changes things in a certain direction whilst bearing the other half in mind. Instead, we are heading for the most drastic solution, which even the most radical campaigners promised would not happen. And unlike Trump's presidency, this solution aims to not be undoable within multiple generations, with the typical Leave boast being "You can have another vote in 40 years time".

[rory_20_uk]

You would put pride above security?

Where is this trade occurring?

[Pannonian]

From the Adam Smith institute, 30th March 2016, "The liberal case for Leave"

This Brexit vision is therefore a global, outward-looking and ambitiously positive one. It eschews the inward-looking outlook of both the Remain lobby and the shouty anti-immigration lobby.

So a parochial inward-looking “little Europe” and a demographically declining one, ranged against an expansive, liberal and global outlook. This vision certainly doesn’t want to go back to the past: of barriers, blocs, and narrow-mindedness.

The crux of the matter is that we in Britain want trade and cooperation; our EU partners want merger and a leashed hinterland. Are we prepared to spend another generation or more dancing around this basic fact while the rest of the world moves on?

No, it is time to leave and embrace the world.

From twitter, 16th July 2018

Thank you. There are a number of us in this part of the spectrum. Some broke for Leave, others for Remain. Those who broke for Remain are being proven right (preeminently @davidallengreen and @s8mb ) and I'm being proven wrong.

[Pannonian]

Where is this trade occurring?

The terms of Brexit as set by May violates the GFA, a bilateral treaty between the UK and RoI, which was facilitated by their mutual EU membership. The EU has offered terms to allow both Brexit and the GFA, but the DUP and hard Brexiteers are both driving in the opposite direction. This problem was incidentally highlighted by Major and Blair, both NI experts, before the referendum.

[Furunculus]

I've seen the quote "52 has been rounded up to 100, while 48 has been rounded down to 0". The close numbers should mean a moderate solution that changes things in a certain direction whilst bearing the other half in mind. Instead, we are heading for the most drastic solution, which even the most radical campaigners promised would not happen. And unlike Trump's presidency, this solution aims to not be undoable within multiple generations, with the typical Leave boast being "You can have another vote in 40 years time".

i agree, and I think the white paper is a very moderate solution.

The terms of Brexit as set by May violates the GFA, a bilateral treaty between the UK and RoI, which was facilitated by their mutual EU membership. The EU has offered terms to allow both Brexit and the GFA, but the DUP and hard Brexiteers are both driving in the opposite direction. This problem was incidentally highlighted by Major and Blair, both NI experts, before the referendum.

the EU offered terms of:
1. EEA+CU, two things that 'many' consider to be in breach of the spririt of brexit in general, and in breach of the Tory manifesto specifically.
2. An internal border within the territory of the UK which no british gov't can be expected to tolerate.

[Beskar]

2. An internal border within the territory of the UK which no british gov't can be expected to tolerate.

This was a border around Northern Ireland. Though there is already such an unofficial border in place anyway. Many things in the UK regularly put into fine-print: "Does not include Northern Ireland".

Was a good solution to the problem as it never affected things where it was necessary for the working Joe Bloggs and you already needed papers and identification to leave to the Main land from Northern Ireland anyway.

[Pannonian]

i agree, and I think the white paper is a very moderate solution.

the EU offered terms of:
1. EEA+CU, two things that 'many' consider to be in breach of the spririt of brexit in general, and in breach of the Tory manifesto specifically.
2. An internal border within the territory of the UK which no british gov't can be expected to tolerate.

There is a free trade zone stretching all the way from Iceland to the Russian border. We will still be part of it after we Vote Leave

Are Leavers going to keep any of their promises?

[Furunculus]

Yes, let me try it this way: what's your basis for your claim?

1.4
UK Immigration Policy
Until the Commonwealth Immigrants Act 1962, all Commonwealth citizens could enter and stay in the United Kingdom without any restriction. The Commonwealth Immigrants Act 1962 made citizens of the United Kingdom and its Colonies whose passports were
not directly issued by the United Kingdom Government subject to immigration control. By 1972, only holders of work permits, or people with parents or grandparents born in the UK could gain entry which significantly reduced primary immigration from Commonwealth countries. The British Nationality Act 1981 distinguished between a British citizen or British Overseas Territories citizen. The former holds nationality by descent and the latter holds nationality other than by descent. Citizens by descent cannot automatically pass on British nationality to a child born outside the United Kingdom or its Overseas Territories (though in some situations the child can be registered as a citizen). After 1997, the previous Labour Government passed more than 10 Acts that dealt directly with immigration and asylum alongside a raft of policy
initiatives, while developments within Europe further changed the policy backdrop to
immigration. 17 The UK signed up to the right to the free movement of people within the EU as codified in EU Directive 2004/38/EC, which included provision for the free movement of workers within the territory of the Member States and the Immigration (European Economic Area) Regulations 2006. Since the expansion of the EU on 1 May 2004, the UK has accepted immigrants from Central and Eastern Europe, Malta and Cyprus (ie the A8 countries). There are restrictions on the benefits that members of the A8 countries can claim, which are covered by the Worker Registration Scheme. The Government announced that the same rules would not apply to nationals of Romania and Bulgaria when those countries acceded to the EU in 2007. Instead, restrictions were put in place to limit migration to students, the self
employed, highly skilled migrants and food and agricultural workers.The UK has for some time operated a managed migration approach, which describes various schemes that control all legal labour and student migration from outside of the EUand this accounts for a substantial percentage of overall immigration figures for the UK.Many of the immigrants who arrive under these schemes bring skills which are in short supply in the UK. This area of immigration is managed by the UK Border Agency. Applications are made at UK embassies or consulates or directly to the UK Border Agency, depending upon the type of visa or permit required.In April 2006 changes to the managed migration system were proposed that would create a points based immigration system for the UK in place of all other schemes.
Tier 1 in the new systemwhich replaced the Highly Skilled Migrant Programme gives points for age, education, earning, previous UK experience but not for work experience. The points based system was phased in over the course of 2008 and is composed as follows:
Tier 1 for highly skilled individuals, who can contribute to growth and productivity;Tier 2 for skilled workers with a job offer, to fill gaps in the United Kingdom workforce; Tier 3 for limited numbers of low skilled workers needed to fill temporary labour shortages; Tier 4 for students; Tier 5 for temporary workers and young people covered by the Youth Mobility Scheme, who are allowed to work in the United Kingdom for a limited time to satisfy primarily non-economic objectives.
18 In June 2010, the Coalition Government brought in a temporary cap on immigration of those entering the UK from outside the EU, with the limit set at 24,100, in order to stop an expected rush of applications before a permanent cap is imposed in April 2011.

https://www.parliament.uk/pagefiles/...igrationFP.pdf

[Furunculus]

This was a border around Northern Ireland. Though there is already such an unofficial border in place anyway. Many things in the UK regularly are regularly put into fine-print: "Does not include Northern Ireland".

Was a good solution to the problem as it never affected things where it was necessary for the working Joe Bloggs and you already needed papers and identification to leave to the Main land from Northern Ireland anyway.

there was a limit in phyto-sanitary measures, and a few other areas. EEA+CU would have made NI a separate economic unit from the UK.
why is this more acceptable than than those same measures on the Ir/NI border? Either way, paddy's will threaten to kill other paddy's.

[Furunculus]

Are Leavers going to keep any of their promises?

you will note the separation between between a campaign group and a gov't.

do you not think the white paper is a very moderate solution?

[Pannonian]

you will note the separation between between a campaign group and a gov't.

do you not think the white paper is a very moderate solution?

Compared with hard Brexit, maybe. But it has also been shelved by the Tory loons led by Rees Mogg.

Also, where does May get her mandate from? The Tories don't have a majority.

[Beskar]

there was a limit in phyto-sanitary measures, and a few other areas. EEA+CU would have made NI a separate economic unit from the UK.
why is this more acceptable than than those same measures on the Ir/NI border? Either way, paddy's will threaten to kill other paddy's.

I cannot remember where you are, so I am going to just place you in.. Bristol for hypothetical purposes. Now, you got some hypothetical family living in Cardiff, or maybe you sometimes do some work over there. I am not sure why, but you really like commuting to Cardiff. In the current situation this is friction-less. You just get in your car, bus or train and you are in your merry way to Cardiff.

So let's say Wales was part of the EU (and separate from the UK). Due to Brexit, there needs to be a hard border between England and Wales. Now your trip is not friction-less, and as Joe Public, your enjoyment or travel to Cardiff just got pretty terrible by consequence. You can no longer just travel there to see your family where you please, needing your passport/photographic ID in order to travel there and having to go to a border stop just as if you were travelling off the Mainland as if to Ireland/NI, France, Channel Islands, wherever.

Now let's say for convenience, the UK and EU governments decide to enforce the border at the coast. As a result of this, it doesn't affect you, as you can happily see your family in Cardiff with no problems at all. Nothing in a real terms situation has changed.

[Furunculus]

I cannot remember where you are, so I am going to just place you in.. Bristol for hypothetical purposes. Now, you got some hypothetical family living in Cardiff, or maybe you sometimes do some work over there. I am not sure why, but you really like commuting to Cardiff. In the current situation this is friction-less. You just get in your car, bus or train and you are in your merry way to Cardiff.

So let's say Wales was part of the EU (and separate from the UK). Due to Brexit, there needs to be a hard border between England and Wales. Now your trip is not friction-less, and as Joe Public, your enjoyment or travel to Cardiff just got pretty terrible by consequence. You can no longer just travel there to see your family where you please, needing your passport/photographic ID in order to travel there and having to go to a border stop just as if you were travelling off the Mainland as if to Ireland/NI, France, Channel Islands, wherever.

Now let's say for convenience, the UK and EU governments decide to enforce the border at the coast. As a result of this, it doesn't affect you, as you can happily see your family in Cardiff with no problems at all. Nothing in a real terms situation has changed.

lovely hypothetical, but all the fun and jazz about hard borders has zero impact on the common travel area.

Compared with hard Brexit, maybe. But it has also been shelved by the Tory loons led by Rees Mogg.

Also, where does May get her mandate from? The Tories don't have a majority.

I believe it was the largest vote share ion 20 years.
It is a moderate proposal, in keeping with the 52/48 result.
What's to complain about?

[Pannonian]

lovely hypothetical, but all the fun and jazz about hard borders has zero impact on the common travel area.

I believe it was the largest vote share ion 20 years.
It is a moderate proposal, in keeping with the 52/48 result.
What's to complain about?

If you want to talk about vote share as opposed to Commons seats, IIRC Major's 1992 government was the most popular in living history in terms of votes received. Was it?

As to the moderation of the proposal: it's already been rejected by the ERG faction, even prior to its rejection by Barnier (which was predictable, as it broke the rules that the UK had a part in setting out. I'm assuming you're saying that May has a mandate for a moderate Brexit. If the ERG force a hard Brexit, does May have a mandate for that too? Cf. that VoteLeave quote I posted above. Also read "The Liberal Case for Leave" that I linked to above, and the author's recent follow up to it.

You know what, Thatcher would have been horrified by the ERG. I'm reading a speech of hers proclaiming the creation of the Single Market, not just in terms of tariffs, but in terms of regulations, standards, and everything else, proudly claiming Britain's lead in this project.

[Furunculus]

she has a mandate for whatever she can get through the commons, that is what parliamentary sovereignty is about.
the erg haven't invalidated the white paper.

[Pannonian]

she has a mandate for whatever she can get through the commons, that is what parliamentary sovereignty is about.
the erg haven't invalidated the white paper.

What do we default to if nothing gets through the HoC? AFAIK there are various mutually contradictory red lines in domestic and international law, unless the decision is made by the executive to put them aside. And that's even before you start involving the EU.

[Beskar]

lovely hypothetical, but all the fun and jazz about hard borders has zero impact on the common travel area.

I thought it did and that was the biggest objection to it? I might have been mistaken then

[Furunculus]

What do we default to if nothing gets through the HoC? AFAIK there are various mutually contradictory red lines in domestic and international law, unless the decision is made by the executive to put them aside. And that's even before you start involving the EU.

at this point, hard brexit or indefinate extension (otherwise known as remain).

[Fragony]

More EU-lulz comming up. Druncker is going to Washington to meet Trump. Trump is mean enough to actually give him water when Druncker wants water, in Brussel it means he wants gin, he will be desperate. He gots two hours or so before he will start violently shaking, after six hours without alcohol at the press conference he will probably have an insult and will have to be rushed to intensive-care. Kinda hoping he will try to kiss Trump, he will still be drunk enough to try he always licks faces

[Pannonian]

at this point, hard brexit or indefinate extension (otherwise known as remain).

Would you be happy with either? Or are you going the rory route and saying it's bad, but it's the EU's fault?

[Furunculus]

i'm a classical liberal free marketeer that likes my government lean and my public servants keen.

from a personal point of view, i'd be willing to tolerate a level of creative destruction with regulation going back to "demonstrable harm" from "precautionary principle", and spending droping to ~35% of GDP... because I believe it will lead to higher GDP growth in the medium to long term. we'd all be richer, which right-minded person wouldn't support this!?!?!?!?

but, i don't live in a country populated by me. there are other people who're quite happy to reach into their pocket to fund another diversity awareness officer, and to take sweets from kids lest we give peadophiles another tool with which to do harm.
these people exist, and I as a responsible citizen have a duty to take their view into consideration too.

thus, i'm willing to curb my inner red-blooded-capitalist, and suck up a softer brexit than is to my own personal taste. that means I'm willing for May to build a compromise package that seeks to minimise the damage even as it minimises the benefit. so be it.

but, like rory, I believe it is abolsutely the solemn duty of the EU to consider this compromise package with sincere good will, with the intention of finding a new relationship that works for both (all?) parties. if they don't, then hey "we tried", but Singapore. it. will. be.

[Pannonian]

i'm a classical liberal free marketeer that likes my government lean and my public servants keen.

from a personal point of view, i'd be willing to tolerate a level of creative destruction with regulation going back to "demonstrable harm" from "precautionary principle", and spending droping to ~35% of GDP... because I believe it will lead to higher GDP growth in the medium to long term. we'd all be richer, which right-minded person wouldn't support this!?!?!?!?

but, i don't live in a country populated by me. there are other people who're quite happy to reach into their pocket to fund another diversity awareness officer, and to take sweets from kids lest we give peadophiles another tool with which to do harm.
these people exist, and I as a responsible citizen have a duty to take their view into consideration too.

thus, i'm willing to curb my inner red-blooded-capitalist, and suck up a softer brexit than is to my own personal taste. that means I'm willing for May to build a compromise package that seeks to minimise the damage even as it minimises the benefit. so be it.

but, like rory, I believe it is abolsutely the solemn duty of the EU to consider this compromise package with sincere good will, with the intention of finding a new relationship that works for both (all?) parties. if they don't, then hey "we tried", but Singapore. it. will. be.

Have you read the piece I linked to above, "The Liberal Argument for Leave", and the recent follow up by the same author? If the first is too long for you, the second is shorter, and more importantly, more relevant as it's a reflection on current reality and an update on the first.

[Furunculus]

Have you read the piece I linked to above, "The Liberal Argument for Leave", and the recent follow up by the same author? If the first is too long for you, the second is shorter, and more importantly, more relevant as it's a reflection on current reality and an update on the first.

Yes I have. I think I read it at the time it was published some years back, I also read it when it you linked it a few days back, and again just now.

Good article, broadly agree with everything it says. Particularly amused by:
"This shifts the equilibrium: it is now possible for people to be part of the same economic area, without having to be part of the same political entity. They are able to trade with one another without having to agree on politics."

Given the most trade in goods is indeed regulated by the likes of UNECE, etc, it almost feels like we've entered a mirror world:
"They are able to politically integrate with one another without having to worry about how many threads should be found on a 15mm flanged gasket." Well quite, and I have NO interest in political integration.

I wouldn't mind the EEA, though I'd be happy to ditch the flanking policies as they have nothing to do with trade.
But I certainly don't mind HMG aiming to go better than that, and separate goods (ECJ makes the rules), from Services (where we do), because the EEA places us in a position of jeapardy with our greatest economic advantage. Our services industry, something for which the continental countries have always had a slight natural aversion. An aversion to the anglo-saxon free-booting finance model.

The same can be said for things like fracking, and biotech/gmo: We don't really like it very much, so we'll make up a reason to strictly control it, and we'll call it "The Precautionary Principle!" Competition, hmmm, we don't like that very much, so we'll make up a reason to strictly control it, and we'll call it "Product Safety Standards!" Yes, that's why you pay a 25% tariff on ground coffee, but only 5% on coffee beans.

So, no, I have no objection to the UK trying to do better than the EEA, and I'm more than willing to accept the risk of no deal as a natural consequence of bargaining hard to get what we want. But, at the end of the day, I won't cry if we do arrive back at EEA/Efta. Personally, I'm hoping we end up in Efta regardless; a marvellous geopolitical tool to lever away the periphery of Europe from subservience to the EU. What fun, do they realise we'll have a field day in Efta at their expense?

I think the liberal case for leave was excellently made. Would you agree? :D

[Pannonian]

I think the liberal case for leave was excellently made. Would you agree? :D

Have you read his more recent comments from a few days back? I quoted some of them earlier.

[Furunculus]

Have you read his more recent comments from a few days back? I quoted some of them earlier.

These ones, yes:

"I'm withdrawing my support for Brexit. Did not sufficiently account for: the incompetence of UK politics; the madness of Brexiteers; the deep aversion to EEA; NI; Customs; and of course Trump. Not switching to Remain but if we do now remain I'll shrug. /1"

"I therefore don't think I have much value to add anymore, so I expect to reduce tweets on this subject. That is all. /2"

"Some interesting replies from Leavers and certain "Academic" sub-tweeters to this & derivative threads: basically saying I was never a Leaver in the first place and that EFTA-EEA is not leaving. If true, then the "real Leave" majority doesn't exist. And it never existed."

"Nope. The strategy was all discussed and agreed with Richard and understood by The Leave Alliance. He even boasted about it here. http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86087 … I did my very best to take Flexcit to places it didn't reach, and for that I had buckets of slime thrown at me. Nice."

Like about 0.01% of the UK population I have in fact read flexcit, and I think there is a lot to commend it.
I too was surpised that May decided to make such a fuss about freedom of movement. It isn't something I really care about, and I didn't expect a free-marketeer tory party in gov't to make such a fuss about it either.

[Pannonian]

"The overwhelming opportunity for Brexit is over the next 50 years"

Jacob Rees Mogg, 21st July 2018.

I guess I won't be alive to see it then.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Where is this trade occurring?

In your hypothetical scenarios the EU and USA respectively have the UK by the balls. A military embargo or economic sanction by either entity would devastate the UK. But your response implies the proper response is to thumb your nose at them and take the hit...

[Pannonian]

Like about 0.01% of the UK population I have in fact read flexcit, and I think there is a lot to commend it.
I too was surpised that May decided to make such a fuss about freedom of movement. It isn't something I really care about, and I didn't expect a free-marketeer tory party in gov't to make such a fuss about it either.

According to the Times 24% are prepared to back an explicitly far right anti-immigration anti-Islam party. This isn't the Britain I grew up in.

[Gilrandir]

"The overwhelming opportunity for Brexit is over the next 50 years"

Jacob Rees Mogg, 21st July 2018.

I guess I won't be alive to see it then.

You have too little faith in NHS.

[Elmetiacos]

According to the Times 24% are prepared to back an explicitly far right anti-immigration anti-Islam party. This isn't the Britain I grew up in.

Yes, it is. It's just that prior to the Brexit vote, these people didn't feel confident enough to state their actual views.