Re: Democrat 2020
Old man Seamus, here's one for updating premises: the incumbency advantage in the House and Senate has disappeared after peaking the late 20th-century, reverting to pre-war norms.
Gary Jacobson pronounces the incumbency advantage dead in congressional general elections; finds ~2-point bump for House incumbents in 2018 after accounting for party lean of district/money spent and no effect at all in Senate. Voters cared about party & Trump, period.
Pre-war reversions? Oooh...
EDIT: Given Bernie Sanders' lackluster and problematic campaigning since he declared, along with emphases of underlying character flaws, whereas Liz Warren has been campaigning pretty much how I hoped and expected Sanders to* at the outset, I must formally transfer my top preference for nominee from Sanders to Warren. See you next month.
*From a somewhat different ideological stance, but close enough for government work
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