Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
There are very few scenarios that would lead to any candidate getting a majority except Bernie winning it all. Iowa and NH mark the transition from wild swings (anything is possible) to maintaining momentum.
Again, the GOP 2016 primaries had one big wild card, Trump, who then proceeded to consistently get 35% in every state after Iowa. There were no upsets at any given vote, only the increasing horror that no one was dropping out to allow the anti-trump voters to consolidate.
I think after South Carolina is when we will start seeing some candidates drop out. Iowa and NH just are not a good representation of the Dem base. Nevada is better, but its a caucus so I'm wondering if the same level of chaos that we saw in Iowa will happen there too.

I do agree that if any candidate was going to get a majority it would be Bernie, especially if Warren drops out after SC. But I think it is much likelier that we are headed for a brokered convention so who knows what will happen. And that is actually what I think Bloomberg is angling for. If he can take enough delegates from Biden, he can force a brokered convention where he might have more leverage than he is letting on.

I will say this though: to Bloomberg's credit, he seems to be following a similar playbook that the Dems followed in 2018: hammer on Trump relentlessly and people are responding to that which is why he is rising in the polls.