Coronavirus / COVID-19

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

My math was quick napkin math.

Monty, A 100% infection and 6.1 million deaths would be a 3% fatality rate. I hope and pray the rate is that low. I also think 100% infection is impossible 70% is probably the best number.

22 million would be an abject fucking disaster

Currently we're still very much in the growth phase of this epidemic, it's likely that lots of cases are going undetected. In the UK we have tested over 29,764 people and found 590 cases, of which 10 have died. The relatively low detection rate and the fact that the disease is still spreading indicates that we are missing cases, and possibly that it is not quite as infectious as we feared.

Once 70% of the population has actually had the bug we will have a much better understanding of the mortality rate. As things stand mortality is probably over-estimated. That being said, a lot of grandparents are going to die, and there's probably going to be another wave if we get it under control and possibly every year until we have an effective vaccine - if we have one.

Long-term, this may be the end of the West's miraculous and ever-lengthening lifespan. This will have big societal and economic impacts if it is the case - maybe we'll start valuing our elders again.