Coronavirus / COVID-19

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Do you still want to go ahead with Brexit now that we've seen what happens when people anticipate shortages? We don't currently have supply issues; the issue is with the consumer. We are due to reduce EU imports by 95% at the end of the year if nothing is done. Still sounds good?

Brexit question importance = 0%

If you read personal accounts (NOT from virologists or other scientists) of people from Hubei Province, things were draconian in nature....but not that draconian (and yes, it doesn't mean things couldn't get that far). The Chinese accepted their scientists word that breaking the contagion chains was the method to stop the spread of SARS-CoV-2, and they bought in. Temperature checked when you left your dwelling; temperature checked when you used public transportation; temperature checked when you got to your destination; and the same on the journey home (hell, temperature checked BEFORE you got your temperature checked, probably)

China doesn't have to shoot people in the head because the people already know they will be shot for disobedience. By contrast, in the UK when the Government asks people to limit social contact everyone goes to the beach. Together.

The fact that they are finding those cases in the first place means they are aggressively monitoring incoming travelers. Anyone found to be infected is quarantined. Will that catch 100%? Probably not, but sooner or later someone will come up with a test that shows a +/- result much quicker than is now available.

This is a fair point, but no Western country has the inclination on infrastructure for this - remember the Right to Privacy? Most Democratic countries have rules that inhibit the state, to an extent, from tracking individuals as they go about their daily lives. China does not - it follows you everywhere.

Sorry to hear that. Stay as well as you can be. The odds (at the moment) are still in your favor.

My research is the only part of me that matters, though I would not want to upset my parents by dying - especially if they can't come to the funeral.

12-18 months of complete shutdown is over-reaction, IMHO. However, the biggest hole in your argument is the very methodology your are bitching about. Breaking the contamination chain is THE paramount factor in containing this virus. Numero-uno. It trumps every other factor. How is this done? Just look around the world to see what others have done.

OK, so you think 12-18 months is OTT. How long will you put up with it, 3, 6? If after three months restrictions are eased and cases spike? Expereince with the Spanish Flu shows quite clearly that these sorts of control measures are only effective whilst they remain in place. You can't full eradicate the virus so as soon as the measures are lifted it flairs back up. The epidemic ends only two ways.

1. It burns itself out.

2. You find an effective vaccine.

1. Testing, testing, and testing on top of your testing. Knowing WHERE the virus has spread to allows you to organize containment. That's what the situation in S. Korea has shown. When you find a "hotspot" beginning to emerge, comes the next part.

2. Isolate the area in question to the fullest extent you can. That's what China did. And if you look at their current situation, that strategy worked (for the moment). And for a case failure, look at Italy.

Restrictions of your "civil liberties" via cancellation of events, bans on air travel, and in the worst case scenarios, severe lock-downs on personal travels, actually will SHORTEN the severity of the outbreak. Repeat, at the expense of some short-term inconvenience, the long-term situation will be much better. That's a trade-off that I'm personally willing to make.

Watch South Korea and China over the next few months - my prediction is that they will lose control as soon as restrictions are eased.

None of that shit matters if they are dead. That dog doesn't hunt, in my world.

The majority of the people Corvid-19 will kill would have died within 5-10 years in any case, the people with PTSD, developmental problems etc. are unlikely to die of Corvid-19. That's the thing - there's very little overlap of the two groups.

1.5 million people in the UK are not going to be isolate, no human contact, for at least 12 weeks. It's on day two and it's pretty rough, I can tell you, not seeing another human being.