The coronavirus pandemic has so far proven to be a boost for many autocratic leaders around the world, who have managed to exploit the crisis to expand and tighten their hold on power. But the situation is different for at least one far-right demagogue, for whom the pandemic is shaping up to become the key line in his political obituary: Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro.
The political future of a president who has been called the “Trump of the Tropics” now hangs in the balance as Bolsonaro continues to actively exhort Brazilians to reject public health measures, even as the number of COVID-19 cases in the country climbs rapidly. In recent days, Bolsonaro has lost two of the most popular members of his Cabinet in circumstances that left him politically wounded. Now, the Supreme Court is looking into allegations—from Bolsonaro’s own justice minister—that the president meddled with the police and obstructed justice, a move that could ultimately sink his presidency.
Each day, it seems, brings a new development in the troubles swirling around Bolsonaro. Some are not directly related to the pandemic—like his move to appoint a new, politically pliant head of the national police, allegedly to protect his family from accusations of corruption. But his evident mishandling of the coronavirus crisis has put his incompetence and demagoguery in full view, magnifying the impact of scandals of his own making. The possibility that Bolsonaro will end up being impeached and removed from office is now very real.
Like many populists, Bolsonaro spent months denying and downplaying the threat posed by the virus. He called COVID-19 a “measly cold,” uttering a slew of nonsensical arguments, including the claim that Brazilians are uniquely protected because they can swim in raw sewage and “don’t catch a thing.”
He was one of the last populist leaders anywhere to acknowledge the threat of the coronavirus. But even then, in a televised speech in late March, he rejected the widely accepted prescription of social distancing and quarantine-like measures. In terms similar to those used by President Donald Trump in his rambling and incoherent White House appearances, he has said the measures against the virus cannot be worse than the illness. Just days ago, Bolsonaro joined a controversial pro-military demonstration against the stay-at-home orders that he has been unable to thwart.
By now, it is obvious that Bolsonaro was wrong in dismissing the risk of the pandemic. The deaths of more than 5,000 Brazilians have been officially attributed to COVID-19, and Brazil has the second-highest number of reported cases of the virus among countries in the Western Hemisphere, after the United States.
The situation would be even more dire had it not been for other government officials, along with Brazilian citizens themselves, who rejected Bolsonaro’s quack views and moved to follow the recommendations of public health experts. They did it as Bolsonaro accused the media of “tricking” the public to stoke panic and recommended unproven malaria drugs, just as Trump did. State governors defied Bolsonaro. Brazil’s most populous states, following the experts’ advice, ordered quarantines, and the public sided with them.
Then Bolsonaro locked horns with his own health minister, Luiz Henrique Mandetta, who had become a focus of national admiration with his own regular, public briefings. The situation became untenable when Mandetta publicly called for a unified public message, essentially suggesting that Bolsonaro should fall in line. The president fired Mandetta in mid-April, a shocking move in the midst of a public health crisis.
By then, Mandetta’s approval rating had soared to 76 percent, more than double Bolsonaro’s dismal 33 percent.
But that was just the beginning. Brazilians were even more shocked when Justice Minister Sergio Moro—a star in Bolsonaro’s Cabinet—resigned in protest last week, accusing the president of firing the country’s top police chief in an effort to protect his sons from criminal investigation and gain access to classified information. Moro’s resignation could not have been more dramatic, since it came in an extraordinary speech in which he detailed the devastating accusations.
That it was Moro who lodged the accusations magnifies their impact immeasurably. The now-former justice minister had near-mythical status in the country, having led the sprawling anti-corruption investigations known as Operation Car Wash that rocked Latin America and resulted in the imprisonment and resignation of presidents, ministers, members of Congress and prominent figures in countries across the region, including Brazil.
By appointing Moro justice minister, Bolsonaro had cemented the central theme of his election campaign: that he would battle entrenched corruption. Now Moro accuses him of being at least as corrupt as any of his predecessors.
Police have Bolsonaro’s sons in their sights. Flavio and Carlos, both politicians, are under investigation for embezzlement, with new and damning stories surfacing in the media regularly. In the most recent bombshell, the daily Folha de Sao Paulo reported that police have accused Carlos Bolsonaro of running a fake news ring to disseminate misinformation. The president denies all the accusations.
Bolsonaro also denies Moro’s accusation that he fired the national police chief so he could appoint someone who would acquiesce to illegal requests. As president, he said he has the right to hire anyone he wants as head of the national police. But Moro provided the press with screenshots of messages he received from Bolsonaro that back his claims.
The question now is what will happen to Bolsonaro. The Supreme Court is launching an investigation into Moro’s allegations that the president was engaging in obstruction of justice. The popular pot-banging demonstrations in cities and towns across Brazil, which started as a protest against the government’s inaction on COVID-19, have turned into a ritual call for Bolsonaro’s impeachment, and they are gaining strength.
Bolsonaro appeared in public on April 19 to support a pro-military protest in Brasilia where some of his backers urged him to reinstate a 1968 law that allowed the president to dismiss the Congress and essentially become a dictator. Bolsonaro has been an avowed admirer of Brazil’s past military dictatorships and has taken care to maintain close relations with the military, which he sees as a good insurance policy.
But the military was reportedly uncomfortable with the recent demonstration, which was strategically staged in front of the army’s headquarters. Former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso tweeted his criticism of Bolsonaro, saying it was “deplorable” that he joined anti-democratic protests. “Time to unite,” he wrote, “against all threats to democracy.”
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Originally Posted by Montmorency
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