POTUS/General Election Thread 2020 + Aftermath

[Montmorency]

The trope that politicians need to "earn" votes is a narcissistic one. Politicians are tools toward our political objectives, which it is our civic duty to rationally contemplate and contextualize. This isn't like finding a restaurant on Yelp.

On the Biden platform for the first weeks of his term, if anyone cares to know. Aspirationally Reaganite in a good way. The bigger the Congressional majorities, the more that gets done. Vive la disjonction.
https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/pol...cession-harris

This ticket would have been competitive against Jeb Bush or Ted Cruz. Would have struggled against Marco Rubio or Chris Christie.

Seamus' feeling is difficult to assess, but this is straight unsubstantiated. Yet, the 2016 primary process demonstrated that the once-rising stars Cruz and Rubio just aren't well-received by the Republican base. That's the data we do have.

Republicans would never nominate Jeb Bush or Chris Christie to anything.

Is it really any surprise? We've already know that the base shifts at the slightest hint that Trump decides a certain idea or policy is no longer in his best interest.
Were you thinking that this would be the lone case that the hard truth convinces Republicans that mail-in voting has never hurt either political party?

Anything to own the libs man. As soon as Trump says something is bad, Republicans will immediately disavow it and anyone who says otherwise.

Not surprising, but shocking.

To develop what we discussed privately, by the morning of November 4th almost no states will have counted their absentee ballots (most will not even have begun), therefore most states will remain uncalled, countless millions of ballots will remain outstanding, based on in-person returns alone Trump will appear to lead Biden by Lukashenko margins, and he will declare victory on the spot and litigate everything up to the Supreme Court to prevent counting of mail ballots.

If Roberts calls the election for Trump and/or the rest of the Republican slate, we launch the national liberation front and watch the Joint Chiefs's response.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Seamus' feeling is difficult to assess, but this is straight unsubstantiated. Yet, the 2016 primary process demonstrated that the once-rising stars Cruz and Rubio just aren't well-received by the Republican base. That's the data we do have.

Seamus's scenario could only take place in an alternate reality where Trump didn't win. When does anyone see the GOP returning back to the middle against Trumpism?

Republicans would never nominate Jeb Bush or Chris Christie to anything.

IF Trump wasn't in the race, Jeb had a chance. Christie not so much. I think Rubio would have overtaken the pack if it wasn't for the whole Christie dismantling him moment.

Not surprising, but shocking.

To develop what we discussed privately, by the morning of November 4th almost no states will have counted their absentee ballots (most will not even have begun), therefore most states will remain uncalled, countless millions of ballots will remain outstanding, based on in-person returns alone Trump will appear to lead Biden by Lukashenko margins, and he will declare victory on the spot and litigate everything up to the Supreme Court to prevent counting of mail ballots.

If Roberts calls the election for Trump and/or the rest of the Republican slate, we launch the national liberation front and watch the Joint Chiefs's response.

If SCOTUS rules another election, this country falls apart into chaotic violence. There is no national organization to mobilize the public unless the Democratic Party quickly takes on a leadership role as the democratic resistance to the political coup.
Per our previous convo, only a national strike would work to facilitate change in the absence of democratic channels in politics.

[Hooahguy]

Seamus's scenario could only take place in an alternate reality where Trump didn't win. When does anyone see the GOP returning back to the middle against Trumpism?

Exactly this. I think the Never Trumper's fantasy of "reclaiming the party" from the trumpists is just that, a fantasy. I dont know how anyone who can look at the cult of personality around Trump and still think that these people are going to go back to your garden-variety republican. My prediction is that every GOP presidential candidate for the foreseeable future is going to be a flavor of Trump and potentially more dangerous. We got lucky that Trump is a total moron, but we might not get that lucky again.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Exactly this. I think the Never Trumper's fantasy of "reclaiming the party" from the trumpists is just that, a fantasy. I dont know how anyone who can look at the cult of personality around Trump and still think that these people are going to go back to your garden-variety republican. My prediction is that every GOP presidential candidate for the foreseeable future is going to be a flavor of Trump and potentially more dangerous. We got lucky that Trump is a total moron, but we might not get that lucky again.

We will get a smarter Trump, but even a smarter Trump will be 'less bad' in a practical way. Much of the damage Trump has caused has come at his own incompetence and inability to achieve his goals in a productive manner.

A smart fascist would have seen the pandemic for the PR opportunity it was and jumped on it. Democracy would have been for the worse, but we wouldn't have 170,000 dead at this point.

[Hooahguy]

We will get a smarter Trump, but even a smarter Trump will be 'less bad' in a practical way. Much of the damage Trump has caused has come at his own incompetence and inability to achieve his goals in a productive manner.

A smart fascist would have seen the pandemic for the PR opportunity it was and jumped on it. Democracy would have been for the worse, but we wouldn't have 170,000 dead at this point.

I guess thats one way to look at it, if you aren't a POC or immigrant of course.

[Hooahguy]

If anyone had any doubts about the direction of Trump's GOP, infamous alt-right troll Laura Loomer won the GOP nomination for Florida's 21st district election. Of course, Trump tweeted his support for her. Thankfully its a very safe Dem seat so she wont be coming to Congress anytime soon. Same can't be said though of Qanon conspiracist Marjorie Taylor Greene who is unfortunately very likely be elected as she is in a very republican district (dammit Georgia). Assuming that the House stays in Dem control, Im not really sure how someone like Greene can be contained from further spreading her bat views but in a more official capacity especially as GOP leadership has shown zero willingness to stifle such nuttery. I just have no hope anymore for a GOP thats even slightly resembling a passably sane party. With Trump refusing to criticize Qanon and going after Goodyear Tire today and no Republican speaking against it, theres nothing left of what the party was even four years ago.

[a completely inoffensive name]

If anyone had any doubts about the direction of Trump's GOP, infamous alt-right troll Laura Loomer won the GOP nomination for Florida's 21st district election. Of course, Trump tweeted his support for her. Thankfully its a very safe Dem seat so she wont be coming to Congress anytime soon. Same can't be said though of Qanon conspiracist Marjorie Taylor Greene who is unfortunately very likely be elected as she is in a very republican district (dammit Georgia). Assuming that the House stays in Dem control, Im not really sure how someone like Greene can be contained from further spreading her bat views but in a more official capacity especially as GOP leadership has shown zero willingness to stifle such nuttery. I just have no hope anymore for a GOP thats even slightly resembling a passably sane party. With Trump refusing to criticize Qanon and going after Goodyear Tire today and no Republican speaking against it, theres nothing left of what the party was even four years ago.

Ben Sasse is a term used for cats.

[a completely inoffensive name]

I guess thats one way to look at it, if you aren't a POC or immigrant of course.

POC's are the worst hit by this pandemic.

Problem with having someone this fucking dumb is that burning everything down due to sheer ignorance also hurts POC and immigrants just as much as a Ted Cruz in office.

[Montmorency]

We will get a smarter Trump, but even a smarter Trump will be 'less bad' in a practical way. Much of the damage Trump has caused has come at his own incompetence and inability to achieve his goals in a productive manner.

A smart fascist would have seen the pandemic for the PR opportunity it was and jumped on it. Democracy would have been for the worse, but we wouldn't have 170,000 dead at this point.

Right-wing leaders have not had a good record on pandemic response this year. The classic fascists themselves actually ran their countries awfully - they were incompetent administrators. I think a fascist who has what it takes to gain and hold control of a nation cannot achieve technocratic success by the nature of the attributes that delivered him to power. One factor is that authoritarianism in itself is incompatible with the observance or iteration of scientific or evidence-based policymaking.

Trump is a particularly harsh case because he is both a narcissist and a lackwit, but you see the same sorts of impulses in less psychologically-deviant rulers.

[Pannonian]

Right-wing leaders have not had a good record on pandemic response this year. The classic fascists themselves actually ran their countries awfully - they were incompetent administrators. I think a fascist who has what it takes to gain and hold control of a nation cannot achieve technocratic success by the nature of the attributes that delivered him to power. One factor is that authoritarianism in itself is incompatible with the observance or iteration of scientific or evidence-based policymaking.

Trump is a particularly harsh case because he is both a narcissist and a lackwit, but you see the same sorts of impulses in less psychologically-deviant rulers.

The alt right puppet masters are experts at peddling dreams. They understand the system. Then when they're elected, they run all sorts under the umbrella of democracy. Unfortunately, democracy doesn't solve everything. For instance, when reality has to be faced, no amount of appealing to a democratic mandate will change reality.

However, you lot have at least woken up and look set to turf out your set of alt righters. Over on our side of the water, our alt righters are still going strong.

[Montmorency]

However, you lot have at least woken up and look set to turf out your set of alt righters.

On net hardly anyone's woken up in this sense, though in the sense of the Great Awokening many people who were already liberals... many Republicans have admittedly been swayed to a degree by the tide of social liberalism, but that doesn't seem to affect their preferences in Republican politicians.

George W. Bush's approval rating moved in a range from ~90% to ~25% (65). Obama's range was within ~60% to ~40% (20). Trump's range has been within 46% to 36% (10). Trump has basically never been below 40% since the Republicans passed their tax bill at the end of 2017. His current approval rating is about where he was a year ago - despite, you know, everything.

It is possible that Trump as a personality commands uniquely stronger loyalty from the Republican base than a generic Republican would even now, but that's not testable for a long time, and the fact remains that around 40% of the electorate are unshakable partisans of a death cult, and these people will still exist come January. There is no reason to think they won't continue to degenerate, indeed, along the same monotonic trend of many years.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Seamus' feeling is difficult to assess, but this is straight unsubstantiated. Yet, the 2016 primary process demonstrated that the once-rising stars Cruz and Rubio just aren't well-received by the Republican base. That's the data we do have.

Republicans would never nominate Jeb Bush or Chris Christie to anything.

I think ACIN is on track as to how the tickets he noted would fare in a general election against this Dem ticket. I was noting that this Dem ticket was pretty "stock" in many ways.


As 2016 demonstrated, and as you rightly assert, however, the GOP of 2016 through the present would not nominate such a ticket as none of those named are they kinds of leaders who want victory without negotiation and aggression across the board against anything labeled as "liberal." Inculcated by Limbaugh and Hannity with the mantra that compromise means the liberals won, this GOP base sees any form of negotiation over substance as anathema.