POTUS/General Election Thread 2020 + Aftermath

[ReluctantSamurai]

Are you insinuating that the voters who for decades voted for a Black man for congress would all of a sudden reject a Black woman?

To clarify...the more important part (for me) was that she ran a grassroots primary campaign against a corporate Democrat whose family was basically the Godfather of politics in that district.

So I guess the Fox News---Donald Trump relationship is over. It seems pretty obvious who was using who for that tryst.....

And who becomes Q (no not THAT Q Trekkies) if/when CoviDon is out?

[Montmorency]

Here's the deal with voters and policy. Voters don't pay a lot of attention to policy, but they might like ideas. In isolation, without much detail for baggage (this is what hobbled E. Warren). The cohort of Republicans, perhaps up to half, who are socially-conservative but fiscally-liberal can stomach incremental fiscal liberalism, or even incremental social liberalism, detached from candidates and parties. And some causes are more normalized than ever. They've gotten used to the periodic need to increase the minimum wage. The old standbys of Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security are popular among them. They can accept gay marriage by now.

But they have decisively associated the Democratic Party with effeminate, contemptuous, eggheads who are trying to put lazy welfare blacks, illegal immigrants, uppity women, and disgusting in-your-face queers up over them (who are the normal, the primary, members of society). They will almost never vote for Democrats as long as an issue that speaks to this anxiety over unfair subordination is salient in an election. Even if the Democratic Party or candidates could manufacture a fantastical alignment with the deepest-held policy preferences of this cohort, the Dem(s) would struggle to attract their votes. It's a matter of longstanding perception and propaganda as well as largely-unconscious psychology and bias.

Once we have a grip on what the case is we can unwishfully think about how to get around it.

Are you insinuating that the voters who for decades voted for a Black man for congress would all of a sudden reject a Black woman? Im not saying that its not an accomplishment to be the first Black woman ever to be elected to Congress in Missouri, but the election wasn't exactly close to begin with. But now lets take Kara Eastman, a progressive, in Nebraska's 2nd District. She lost her race but Biden won her district, which netted a valuable electoral college vote.

Eastman underperformed by 3 points relative to 2018. Let's spare a thought for moderate after moderate sinking by 10, 20 points.

Well considering that Bernie got utterly shellacked in places like Michigan and Wisconsin during the primary, I think we do know how it would have gone.

It is a fair point that Biden had higher actual support among Democrats, but that was a distinct context and the 2020 environment was almost tailor-made for testing the Sandersite theory of politics: Dem vs. Repub rather than Dem vs. Dem. It would be nice to have a test of what kind of tradeoffs really could occur between moderates and economic conservatives, and social conservatives (though I'm equally pessimistic).

It is a kind of lower standard for Biden; a Sanders-like candidate performing exactly like Biden has would not be strenuously defended by modal Democrats in these discussions. Boy, a Sanders Pyrrhic victory (which is what 2020 has been) would be treated by the media as discrediting the left flank for a decade. So yeah, there's a bias independent of performance.

To clarify...the more important part (for me) was that she ran a grassroots primary campaign against a corporate Democrat whose family was basically the Godfather of politics in that district.

And I'm pretty sure they endorsed her Republican opponent...

Speaking of Missouri, it appears Missouri and Kansas have the same exact presidential margins. How poetic.

[Hooahguy]

To clarify...the more important part (for me) was that she ran a grassroots primary campaign against a corporate Democrat whose family was basically the Godfather of politics in that district.

Ok? I mean its not unheard of, but I'd be far more impressed if they could actually flip a seat instead of just beating Dem incumbents. If Bush ran in Spanberger's district she would have lost. Honestly I wish more progressive candidates were like Katie Porter who flipped her district in 2018 and held this year too. Progressive, but also doesnt say and do stupid shit.

Eastman underperformed by 3 points relative to 2018. Let's spare a thought for moderate after moderate sinking by 10, 20 points.

So she did even worse this time around then.

Also theres this fun article: Trump has signaled to allies that the Secret Service will have to drag him from the White House kicking and screaming.

All I can say is please dont threaten me with a good time. Who has popcorn?

[Montmorency]

https://thehill.com/homenews/preside...-story-socials

Santorum urges giving Trump time to accept defeat: 'This is a very emotional time'

What a fucking loser. Every statement about Trump is somehow disqualifying for him to have ever sat in office.

So she did even worse this time around then.

Bro, she got 49% of the vote in 2018. She did better than the incumbent who got kicked out in 2016, who endorsed the Republican this cycle. Best-boy Conor Lamb dropped by 6 this year.


Like I said, progressives are held to a much higher standard.

[Hooahguy]

Like I said, progressives are held to a much higher standard.

Because if you are going to say that "our approach to winning elections is better" then you have to prove it. And winning in a D+20 district is not proving it. To me anyways.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Because if you are going to say that "our approach to winning elections is better" then you have to prove it. And winning in a D+20 district is not proving it. To me anyways.

They misspoke, meant to say "our approach to taking over the party is successful". Justice dems I think are still 0 wins in purple districts.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Spanberger on the House majority losses.

[edyzmedieval]

Being addicted to Twitter for this Election cycle news, I stumbled upon Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sharply criticising Spanberger's criticism, arguing that the Democratic party had almost no digital outreach compared to the Republicans who performed much much better.

Which if true, I find staggering. It's 2020 - it's a pandemic. People are home, always online. Why would you not have a digital strategy?

[Montmorency]

Because if you are going to say that "our approach to winning elections is better" then you have to prove it. And winning in a D+20 district is not proving it. To me anyways.

Think about what your snide remark implies, that a Democrat is chopped liver for losing vote-share in her rematch, even though almost every Democrat lost vote-share, and she lost a lot less than most. Disparate consideration.

We've already had this conversation. The bare minimum is just that the DCCC and DLCC and rival Dems not actively undermine progressive candidates.

They misspoke, meant to say "our approach to taking over the party is successful". Justice dems I think are still 0 wins in purple districts.

How many wins up are moderate Dems in purple districts this cycle? Lordie, don't ignore the context.

If you want to know which organization has succeeded in storming purple districts this cycle, that would be Stefanik's EPAC: Republican woman recruits have surged into the double digit victories this cycle IIRC.

Maybe since they're so successful we should let them run our primaries.

[ReluctantSamurai]

They will almost never vote for Democrats as long as an issue that speaks to this anxiety over unfair subordination is salient in an election.

That sounds like white supremacy anxiety, to me....

Honestly I wish more progressive candidates were like Katie Porter who flipped her district in 2018 and held this year too. Progressive, but also doesnt say and do stupid shit.

Katie Porter rocks, but what qualifies as "stupid shit"?

Spanberger's remarks are nothing more than looking for a scapegoat, and the left wing is it. The "socialist" and "defund the police" tags were put upon the Democratic Party by Republicans. How about getting off your ass and do something to actually...you know...control the narrative rather playing defense?

Maybe since they're so successful we should let them run our primaries.

[a completely inoffensive name]

How many wins up are moderate Dems in purple districts this cycle?

More than zero.