POTUS/General Election Thread 2020 + Aftermath

[ReluctantSamurai]

Regarding Manchin, from what I've been able to gather he has never opposed the caucus on a vote that really mattered.

Not so fast... His voting record on environmental issues is abysmal, and he now stands to chair the Energy and Natural Resources Committee.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...e-manchin-iii/

Voted against S.J.Res. 53 which would have rescinded Trump's relaxation of emission standards for power plants; voted for the appointment of Andrew Wheeler (a former coal industry lobbyist) to head the EPA (W. Virginia is the 2d largest producer of coal in the US); voted against H.J.Res. 36 which would have relaxed regulations on methane emissions from oil and gas industry operations (a +1 for Manchin); voted for the approval of Scott Priutt as Administrator of the EPA (who later had to resign amid a slew of ethics scandals); and who voted for nearly every one of Trump's government appointees.

A mixed bag to say the least, but his stance on energy production is quite clear----he won't do anything to piss off his corporate donors in the coal industry. If he gets to chair the Senate Energy and National Resources Committee, it will be extremely difficult if not impossible to get any clean air proposals through the Senate even if the Dems pick up the two seats in Georgia.

[Hooahguy]

Excellent interview with Obama in The Atlantic, talking about how American democracy is in trouble:

I come out of this book very worried about the degree to which we do not have a common baseline of fact and a common story. We don’t have a Walter Cronkite describing the tragedy of Kennedy’s assassination but also saying to supporters and detractors alike of the Vietnam War that this is not going the way the generals and the White House are telling us. Without this common narrative, democracy becomes very tough.

Remember, after Iowa my candidacy survives Reverend [Jeremiah] Wright, and two minutes of videotape in which my pastor is in kente cloth cursing out America. And the fact is that I was able to provide context for that, and I ended up winning over a huge swath of the country that has never set foot on the South Side of Chicago and was troubled by what he said. I mean, that’s an indicator of a different media environment.

Now you have a situation in which large swaths of the country genuinely believe that the Democratic Party is a front for a pedophile ring. This stuff takes root. I was talking to a volunteer who was going door-to-door in Philadelphia in low-income African American communities, and was getting questions about QAnon conspiracy theories. The fact is that there is still a large portion of the country that was taken in by a carnival barker.
[..]
If we do not have the capacity to distinguish what’s true from what’s false, then by definition the marketplace of ideas doesn’t work. And by definition our democracy doesn’t work. We are entering into an epistemological crisis.

I can have an argument with you about what to do about climate change. I can even accept somebody making an argument that, based on what I know about human nature, it’s too late to do anything serious about this—the Chinese aren’t going to do it, the Indians aren’t going to do it—and that the best we can do is adapt. I disagree with that, but I accept that it’s a coherent argument. I don’t know what to say if you simply say, “This is a hoax that the liberals have cooked up, and the scientists are cooking the books. And that footage of glaciers dropping off the shelves of Antarctica and Greenland are all phony.” Where do I start trying to figure out where to do something?

Well worth the read.

[Montmorency]

Not so fast... His voting record on environmental issues is abysmal, and he now stands to chair the Energy and Natural Resources Committee.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...e-manchin-iii/

Voted against S.J.Res. 53 which would have rescinded Trump's relaxation of emission standards for power plants; voted for the appointment of Andrew Wheeler (a former coal industry lobbyist) to head the EPA (W. Virginia is the 2d largest producer of coal in the US); voted against H.J.Res. 36 which would have relaxed regulations on methane emissions from oil and gas industry operations (a +1 for Manchin); voted for the approval of Scott Priutt as Administrator of the EPA (who later had to resign amid a slew of ethics scandals); and who voted for nearly every one of Trump's government appointees.

A mixed bag to say the least, but his stance on energy production is quite clear----he won't do anything to piss off his corporate donors in the coal industry. If he gets to chair the Senate Energy and National Resources Committee, it will be extremely difficult if not impossible to get any clean air proposals through the Senate even if the Dems pick up the two seats in Georgia.

But that's what I mean when I speak of votes that really matter. On confirmation votes, Manchin never seems to have been a deciding vote because the Republicans had a majority anyway. On Kavanaugh he was the 50th vote, but it was widely contextualized at the time as not being worth the prospective damage to his imminent reelection (the confirmation was a month before the midterms) to go out on a limb to force Republicans to choose a slightly-less reprehensible candidate for Supreme Court. Manchin being, of course, an idiosyncratically-tolerated Democratic holdout in what had become the most Republican state in the country*. For the named resolutions on environmental regulations, I believe they too will fall into the pattern of being symbolic votes from a minority position. If the strategy is to shore up his centrist bona fides in West Virginia, probably no use in visibly voting with a minority to no effect.

Let's see what happens with Manchin (hopefully) among 50+. Of course, with a razor thin margin , the thing we had always hoped to avoid with a fat buffer in the majority, there will be hard limits on what one can demand of him or a number of other frontline Dems. But I find it hard to believe Manchin would flatly oppose a handful of Dem priorities on electoral reform and pandemic relief, to start.

Get the man some pork.

An executive jubilee for most student debt wouldn't depend on Manchin though, and it would be pretty high-impact. I bet it also spurs productive electoral participation among people in their 20s and 30s, as well as those currently in their teens.

*Before 2008, West Virginia had been a swing state. Suddenly, it became the most Republican state in the country, or at least alongside Idaho and Wyoming. I wonder what happened...

[ReluctantSamurai]

But that's what I mean when I speak of votes that really matter. On confirmation votes, Manchin never seems to have been a deciding vote because the Republicans had a majority anyway.

Let's say, for sheer fantasy sake, that the Dems take both Georgia seats making it a 50/50 split in the Senate. Now let's imagine a vote comes up on a key clean energy bill in Congress. Which way do you think Manchin will vote? I have no doubts based on his voting record (nevermind that the GOP already had more than enough votes for a particular bill) for putting not one but two fossil fuel advocates as head of the EPA (the first, Scott Pruitt had to resign amid ethics scandals). And he's already come out as philosophically against "Green Energy". This man is really a corporate Republican in the disguise of a Democrat.

And you are overlooking the damage he can cause as a potential chair of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee. A quick look at what that committee does:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...ural_Resources

Coal production, distribution, and utilization; energy policy; energy regulation and policy; energy research and development; oil and gas production and distribution; solar energy systems......

This senator, who is most obviously beholden to his coal industry donors, is possibly going to be in a position to be the next Dr. No when it comes to Biden trying to get clean energy legislation passed. We can reference this conversation for later where I can say 'I told you so', or you will be saying the same to me. It's a moot point if the Dems don't take both Georgia seats as far as the chair position is concerned.....

[Montmorency]

Let's say, for sheer fantasy sake, that the Dems take both Georgia seats making it a 50/50 split in the Senate. Now let's imagine a vote comes up on a key clean energy bill in Congress. Which way do you think Manchin will vote? I have no doubts based on his voting record (nevermind that the GOP already had more than enough votes for a particular bill) for putting not one but two fossil fuel advocates as head of the EPA (the first, Scott Pruitt had to resign amid ethics scandals). And he's already come out as philosophically against "Green Energy". This man is really a corporate Republican in the disguise of a Democrat.

And you are overlooking the damage he can cause as a potential chair of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee. A quick look at what that committee does:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...ural_Resources

Coal production, distribution, and utilization; energy policy; energy regulation and policy; energy research and development; oil and gas production and distribution; solar energy systems......

This senator, who is most obviously beholden to his coal industry donors, is possibly going to be in a position to be the next Dr. No when it comes to Biden trying to get clean energy legislation passed. We can reference this conversation for later where I can say 'I told you so', or you will be saying the same to me. It's a moot point if the Dems don't take both Georgia seats as far as the chair position is concerned.....

You have to set what we know of an individual lawmaker's characteristics against the context of the agenda and operating environment. With a razor-thin 50-50 (+VP) majority, it would be widely accepted that there is only political capital for one or two significant legislative items. One of them would have to be pandemic response, though we could finesse that through the reconciliation process (without filibuster abolition) if we stripped out regulatory changes and new programs. And if we could put pandemic response through reconciliation, there would almost certainly be no unanimous appetite to scrap the filibuster and move on. Therefore, sadly, there are almost no circumstances where a serious climate bill would be allowed onto the floor. I imagine everyone would agree it's not getting through ahead of more immediate necessities. If the case sounds dire, it is, but Biden and Schumer and the rest will be privately making all these calculations about priorities and sequencing and how much of their designs can survive - unless they're Republican-tier incompetent.

But stipulating that somehow Biden actively and vocally made a climate bill his top priority out of them all, while I believe Manchin would put out I agree that his baseline tells us he would be given free rein pick it clean until it was threadbare and not comparable even to Biden's paper designs.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Therefore, sadly, there are almost no circumstances where a serious climate bill would be allowed onto the floor. I imagine everyone would agree it's not getting through ahead of more immediate necessities.

Obviously, the pandemic takes front and center. A vaccine production and distribution system will need to be set up, and a relief package of some kind will need to be hashed out. Then...comes the PR blitz that will be necessary to convince enough people to actually take the vaccine to make it effective in controlling the virus. This probably takes the entire first year of Biden's presidency. Climate bills will have to be entertained at some point....

[a completely inoffensive name]

You have to set what we know of an individual lawmaker's characteristics against the context of the agenda and operating environment. With a razor-thin 50-50 (+VP) majority, it would be widely accepted that there is only political capital for one or two significant legislative items. One of them would have to be pandemic response, though we could finesse that through the reconciliation process (without filibuster abolition) if we stripped out regulatory changes and new programs. And if we could put pandemic response through reconciliation, there would almost certainly be no unanimous appetite to scrap the filibuster and move on. Therefore, sadly, there are almost no circumstances where a serious climate bill would be allowed onto the floor. I imagine everyone would agree it's not getting through ahead of more immediate necessities. If the case sounds dire, it is, but Biden and Schumer and the rest will be privately making all these calculations about priorities and sequencing and how much of their designs can survive - unless they're Republican-tier incompetent.

But stipulating that somehow Biden actively and vocally made a climate bill his top priority out of them all, while I believe Manchin would put out I agree that his baseline tells us he would be given free rein pick it clean until it was threadbare and not comparable even to Biden's paper designs.

Just look at Manchin's submitted bills and see what can be passed which makes both the Senator more amenable to passing climate change bill but also works to make Dems look good.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-...5/text?r=3&s=1
Here is a good one, expand internet connectivity into more communities, make this a message to the people of WV that Dems got them internet, not GOP.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-.../text?r=16&s=1
Continue funding Black Lung Disability Trust Fund

https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-.../2431/text?s=1
Require voice service providers to to provide call blocking programs for free.

I mean, these are all good PR type stuff and all Sponsored by Manchin.

This is a situation where we can't be thinking so big that we do nothing with a 50 seat Senate. Just pass safe bills that are PR friendly and most importantly help people. Even if it is not the biggest most bestest thing we could pass.

[Pannonian]

Just look at Manchin's submitted bills and see what can be passed which makes both the Senator more amenable to passing climate change bill but also works to make Dems look good.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-...5/text?r=3&s=1
Here is a good one, expand internet connectivity into more communities, make this a message to the people of WV that Dems got them internet, not GOP.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-.../text?r=16&s=1
Continue funding Black Lung Disability Trust Fund

https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-.../2431/text?s=1
Require voice service providers to to provide call blocking programs for free.

I mean, these are all good PR type stuff and all Sponsored by Manchin.

This is a situation where we can't be thinking so big that we do nothing with a 50 seat Senate. Just pass safe bills that are PR friendly and most importantly help people. Even if it is not the biggest most bestest thing we could pass.

Lots of little good things under your watch works better than grand fights that result in deadlock. And learn from Labour in the UK; doing lots of little good things is not a betrayal of the left. Highlight all the little good things that are being done, all in the spirit of motherhood and apple pie.

[Hooahguy]

Back to authoritarian watch 2020, Trump has fired the director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency because he didnt like how he kept stating that there was no widespread voter fraud.

Trump announced on Twitter he was firing Chris Krebs, the director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, and directly tied it to Krebs' statement that said there "is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised."

"The recent statement by Chris Krebs on the security of the 2020 Election was highly inaccurate, in that there were massive improprieties and fraud," Trump said in a tweet before repeating multiple baseless conspriacy theories about the election. "Therefore, effective immediately, Chris Krebs has been terminated as Director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency."

CNN reported that Krebs, who ran the cyber arm of the Department of Homeland Security, expected to be fired.

In the lead-up to the election, Krebs had often quietly disputed the President's repeated false claims about mail-in ballots but went out of his way to not get drawn into criticizing his boss for spreading lies.
But in the days that have followed, Krebs has adopted a more forceful approach regularly posting on Twitter -- often with blaring red siren emojis -- fact checks of the claims and conspiracy theories being pushed by Trump, his allies and supporters around the country.

I guess Keitel, Jodl, and Burgdorf get to stay in the bunker then.


In local GOP fuckery, the the board of canvassers in Wayne County, Michigan refused to certify the election results unless votes from Detroit are excluded. Something something racism is alive and well. Thankfully the Michigan Sec of State can bypass them to certify the results.

And thats not to mention that ol' Lindsey called the Georgia Sec of State to try to get him to toss ballots. Ugh, absolutely shameless.

Oh and the Nevada GOP is trying to overturn the election there too via lawsuit.

At what point does the media stop tiptoeing around this and call a spade a spade? This is blatant fascism.

[Montmorency]

"It was hard to believe, watching him at Dayton, that he had traveled, that he had been received in civilized societies, that he had been a high officer of state. He seemed only a poor clod like those around him, deluded by a childish theology, full of an almost pathological hatred of all learning, all human dignity, all fine and noble things. He was a peasant come home to the barnyard. Imagine a gentleman and you have imagined everything he was not. What animated him from end to end of his grotesque career was simply ambition- the ambition of a common man to get his hand upon the collar of his superiors, or failing that to get his thumb into their eyes. He was born with a roaring voice, and it had the trick of inflaming half-wits. His whole career was devoted to raising those half-wits against their betters so that he himself might shine"

Some apt in translation, though bracingly elitist, flames from noted misanthrope HL Mencken (on William Jennings Bryan).

I do hope though this Trump presidency leads to truly codifying some 'norms' into law, tradition cannot be relied upon anymore. I also think everyone sees the danger of the influence in the Justice department and the various inspector generals of all parts of the executive branch. Stronger legal protections and a bigger wedge between the Presidency and these people must be sought. Perhaps the Attorney General should be unable to be fired without house and senate judicial approval.

Big problem: I'm confident the Supreme Court believes, and has ruled to such effect during Trump's term, that executive branch employees serve at the pleasure of the President and therefore Congress cannot place restrictions on the office's authority over personnel.

Lots of little good things under your watch works better than grand fights that result in deadlock. And learn from Labour in the UK; doing lots of little good things is not a betrayal of the left. Highlight all the little good things that are being done, all in the spirit of motherhood and apple pie.

Of course, zero little good things getting done is no better than zero grand things done, and perhaps offers less to leverage in the future.

Tangentially, Labour in the UK has the major advantage of having the opportunity to pass almost anything it desires should it acquire a comfortable (say, 55%) majority of seats in the Commons. The real trick is getting into power as I understand. In America, there are as many stages of power as there are veto points.

I guess Keitel, Jodl, and Burgdorf get to stay in the bunker then.

Damn writers. Well, we still have "Barr"-gdorf.

And thats not to mention that ol' Lindsey called the Georgia Sec of State to try to get him to toss ballots. Ugh, absolutely shameless.

That would be the surprisingly-honest Georgian government ostensibly opting for surrender to the Americans. Or what's going on with this snitching?

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status...93672777510912

Georgia's two Republican U.S. Senators [Ed. Perdue and Loeffler] are calling on the Republican Secretary of State to resign because they believe - without evidence - that he "failed to deliver honest and transparent elections."

Internet connectivity, providing health care to coal workers, and other such "feel good" issues are important and nothing but good comes from promoting them. I'm looking down the road at what will move voters in the future, and what provides the Democratic Party with a solid footing to take away some of the power the GOP has gathered in the last several decades. How many people outside of those receiving direct benefit from said 'little good things' will actually know about them? Not as many as would be aware of eco-friendly legislation that could get passed...

It's always difficult to promote legislation that doesn't have a large and direct effect on many voters' lives.

Student debt jubilee would be felt without mistake or mediation by tens of millions of young-skewed Americans, so it offers a fairly direct answer to that mugwumpian challenge, "What has the government ever done for me?"

BTW, these pre-election noises from Schumer might be reassuring, though they won't have the outlet we hoped for.
https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1323709500419956737