Mass Effect 17er [Game Thread]

[pzelda]

Ok,
I know I'm getting too influenced by the thread again, but let me show you where I'm at. I think Visor is at least partially off with his takes, but he's selling them harder than usual. I'm scared of that. If he's scum, it's quite possible that all of Rask/Dya/GH are towns.
If Visor's town, there's a good chance that he's correct about GH. GH made some reckless moves yesterday. I think his votes were weirdly sudden and that he went too hard to case some people as mafia personally. But he also made a bunch of good posts and built a solid towncore. This thing is difficult to see, but GH probably led town yesterday and had the most influence on other players.

There's also a smaller possibility that both of them are towns. In this case, Visor's surprisingly off this game, but whatever. I would look for wolves among less impactful players such as Maple, Eph, Manasi and Cuth.

There's also probably exactly one wolf in Dolby, Monty and Rask with an outside chance of both Monty and Dolby being wolves. I don't think Dolby would be confident enough to defend his partner like this, tho. I'm not 100% ruling out Rask yet, but I struggle to see him as wolf with Visor changing his read (I know that a lot of my read is just my respect for Visor's ability to have good reads). Dolby's imho more sus than Monty for his defense of the latter as it could be a pocket.

Let's try this:

0 wolves in (presumably):
Hally, Colonel, Ara

0-1 wolf
GH, Visor, Rask

1 wolf
Rask, Dolby, Monty

1-2 wolves
Cuth, Maple, Manasi, Eph, Esooa

0-1 wolf
Dya

Rask is two different groups because of his interactions, but my opinion rn is that he isn't the wolf in either. The group of five players is interesting because it always includes a wolf and because players in it mostly can be wolves together.
Ara and Colonel could be in the big group, but I decided to go with my guts there and put them in lock towns for today.

[pzelda]

visor's probably town and i can't really tell you why. I expect him to push me here because of my activity levels and i don't think he's only focusing on that for his reads

just feels organic

I think this is a meh self-centric take. Basically, he's pushing a bigger fish via an association with you (not only that, but it's part of his read).

[GeneralHankerchief]

GH, I v-read your entry to the day, I think a fair amount of what you've done really makes a lot of sense if you're a villager here, but I also think you're being a bit reactionary with the Visor vote. He could absolutely be a wolf, but his thought process and progression have been reasonable and fine so far. My vote on you was mostly for how... mechanical your flip over to dya today felt? It felt like you'd chosen not to push there and then you chose to do without much change on their end in between.

A lot of this is under the hood stuff since I didn't really talk much between last night (US time) and this afternoon, but I just took a step back and started thinking, really. I read Rask's posts and decided he had a decent shot of being town. I went back over dya's posts and turned them over in my head, trying to put them in the perspective of someone who isn't able to spend much time on the game, and decided that they still would have been different if dya was actually town even given this factor.

With Eph, I need to reread him, but I'm less concerned about him today than I was yesterday. I don't think he's really trying to force much (granted, I specifically called him out for something similar but in a scummy way yesterday), but, like, we were wrong yesterday and general consensus is we're about to be wrong with our poison today. Even if you're mafia in a good position, I think there's an inherent level of stress that rises when the crunch starts to come in and you find fewer towns to push. This usually shows up in a couple of ways: either someone's reads end up being super stagnant and come out as trying to force towns on the track they're already taking, or they try to emulate the "stressed" tone of town in this spot and it just doesn't come off right. I don't really detect either from Eph, and that's a good thing.

[GeneralHankerchief]

pzelda, do you have a Dolby scum game I can look at or just generally talk about his scum meta?

[pzelda]

I think are almost always villagers
Hally, Ara

I am pretty sure they are villagers but they have some skepticism on them so I'll keep an eye on it
pZelda, Colonel, GH

Gut says V but I'm not confident in it
Esooa, Dya, Mont, Ephem, Cuth

Others feel good about but I'm skeptical of for a few reasons
Visor, Dolby

Few reasons to scumreads
Maple, Ampharos, Csargo

In this game
Manasi

I might sheep Sunbae here. Visor's notably in scumleans.

[dyachei]

I think this is a meh self-centric take. Basically, he's pushing a bigger fish via an association with you (not only that, but it's part of his read).

visor has enough experience with me he knows when I'm off? it's just not AI this game

[pzelda]

pzelda, do you have a Dolby scum game I can look at or just generally talk about his scum meta?

I think this is the only game I played with waffling Dolbster: https://forums.civfanatics.com/threa...3p-win.655151/
I don't remember a whole lot, but he relied on meta a lot (but he started relying on it more as both alignments lately). He was backstabby too and he struggled to scumread his usual townreads. What's he has been doing with Monty reminds me of it a little, but I admit that he just might have a good meta read. If he's town, his meta on me is garbage for some reason.

[Cuthillius]

A lot of this is under the hood stuff since I didn't really talk much between last night (US time) and this afternoon, but I just took a step back and started thinking, really. I read Rask's posts and decided he had a decent shot of being town. I went back over dya's posts and turned them over in my head, trying to put them in the perspective of someone who isn't able to spend much time on the game, and decided that they still would have been different if dya was actually town even given this factor.

With Eph, I need to reread him, but I'm less concerned about him today than I was yesterday. I don't think he's really trying to force much (granted, I specifically called him out for something similar but in a scummy way yesterday), but, like, we were wrong yesterday and general consensus is we're about to be wrong with our poison today. Even if you're mafia in a good position, I think there's an inherent level of stress that rises when the crunch starts to come in and you find fewer towns to push. This usually shows up in a couple of ways: either someone's reads end up being super stagnant and come out as trying to force towns on the track they're already taking, or they try to emulate the "stressed" tone of town in this spot and it just doesn't come off right. I don't really detect either from Eph, and that's a good thing.

Cool, I appreciate this a lot.

[pzelda]

visor has enough experience with me he knows when I'm off? it's just not AI this game

I don't think that it's about having enough experience with you what I'm trying to say. I meant he just put you in scumreads and didn't bother to push you. But he used that scumread to gain more ground for his actual push. I think you should find that at least lil fishy and not towny.

[dyachei]

I don't think that it's about having enough experience with you what I'm trying to say. I meant he just put you in scumreads and didn't bother to push you. But he used that scumread to gain more ground for his actual push. I think you should find that at least lil fishy and not towny.

i mean visor does the association thing even early in my experiences with him? but maybe you're right and I'm just being naive

[ColonelLubriderm]

Maple

[pzelda]

tbh, right now I feel like a got myself in the middle of a warp. I have thoughts on everyone, but my reads are full of associations and maybes, which shouldn't be there. I dislike working with associations so much before mafia flips. And even after that, they might be misleading.
So, honest individual takes:

Visor - I think I might return to my original read. Visor's tryharding this game and I don't think it's a good look.
Montmorency - I dislike most of his posts and the total judgement. It makes it harder to read him tonally, but the content overall was out of touch. I think that even today, while his posts had good parts, it was too judgemental for someone, who occasionally visits the thread.
Cuthillius - kinda there, but difficult to grasp
Rask - I liked that he started solving today and I mindmelded with some of his takes. I can't quite get over Amy's posts, tho.
GeneralHankerchief - Good solving and building of town, his votes and cases are making me paranoid about him.
Hally - town
Arapocalypse - town
Esooa - I still think Esooa should be town, but her readlist yesterday wasn't the best and she definitely started posting less after the solving started. I need to check her posts for progressions.
Dolby - I suspect him. I said enough about that.
Manasi - used Hello in her opening. So, she probably is a lock town.
ColonelLubriderm - town
dyachei - probably thrown under wheels by other wolves if wolf. I'm still not 100% sure, because there are 2 or 3 takes from Dya I like.
Maple - read Dya's take. It's good. Has mafioso potential.
Ephemeral - blending, but I got a feeling that he's doing things under hood. The results will significantly swing my read.

[pzelda]

i mean visor does the association thing even early in my experiences with him? but maybe you're right and I'm just being naive

It's possible. Do you think scum Visor would be happy with pushing just you?

[pzelda]

Some things for me to do. I need to figure out rask. He's mutually exclusive with quite a few people.
Take a look at Csargo voters. Dya was off-wagon, so even if she's a wolf, there probably was an early w voter on him. I would look for people who were either gunning against dya yeet or arbitrary in their approach to Csargo. Even with many of us having his blood on our hands, that lynch was an atrocity. This should give me a pool of people to work with for my vote today.

Final Tally

7 Csargo (Sunbae, Arapocalypse, Hally, Montmorency, GeneralHankerchief, ColonelLubriderm, Maple)

5 dyachei (Raskolnikov, Visor, Manasi, Ephemeral, Esooa)

3 Raskolnikov (pzelda, Cuthillius, Dolby)

2 Esooa (Csargo, dyachei)

At first look Monty fits the bill, but I need to take a proper look at switches and such.

[pzelda]

I need to take a night long break now and do some drawing.

[dyachei]

manti had a read in like his first 30 posts. that's pretty weird for manti (it was monty wolfy)

and then says he thinks everyone is wolfy

he also agrees with me that esooa doesn't look that great but doesn't really do anything with it

i see the wants to vote me and make me die but wants to vote csargo more and I agree that's weird @Ephemeral. but I'm more pinged with how on topic he's been

vote: maple

[dyachei]

It's possible. Do you think scum Visor would be happy with pushing just you?

probably not

[Maple]

I considered claiming Poisoner for the lolz but I was concerned that one of the people who don't know me is the real poisoner and would CC me.

[Raskolnikov]

Some things for me to do. I need to figure out rask. He's mutually exclusive with quite a few people.
Take a look at Csargo voters. Dya was off-wagon, so even if she's a wolf, there probably was an early w voter on him. I would look for people who were either gunning against dya yeet or arbitrary in their approach to Csargo. Even with many of us having his blood on our hands, that lynch was an atrocity. This should give me a pool of people to work with for my vote today.



At first look Monty fits the bill, but I need to take a proper look at switches and such.

DO that, I will have a look too. I will pretend you didn't sit on my slot while doing so.

[Raskolnikov]

I am liking Dya most recent posts a bit more (after the ATE/self vote phase).

[Ephemeral]

gonna b going 2 sleep

First off dya's a bit of an odd slot for me rn

on one hand I didn't really dislike their interactions with me recently, and I think their takes are plausibly within v!dya range

This isn't clearing by any means but atm I think I'm at the point where I just want to leave them to their own devices and see what they come up with, I think if they're villagers they should be able to bounce back convincingly from this point on

The fact that 2 of my wolf reads in dya/gh are now pivoting to another one of my wolf reads in manti together(while GH is still on w!dya) makes for a pretty wacky picture to parse fmpov

but we'll see how it goes ig

[Ephemeral]

Maple

Wait this isn't GH

gfdi

disregard my last line in the previous post

[Raskolnikov]

vote: Montmorency

exclusively for his comment on "what if they're both villagers what then huh" earlier today

melding totally. I just didn't see the aim of this post (coming from town mindset I mean). He doesn't want to engage with the read, its logic, its root or potential weaknesses. Nope, just denying it (the read from Visor was GH/dya ww fwiw). Whats next lol

[Raskolnikov]

Yeah, I forgot it wasn't a tie in the end.
@Raskolnikov - ride or die with Maple I can't really explain. I guess it was an early feeling the slot was giving me. As you can see I'm not there anymore. @Esooa - My read on Eph is kinda lacking. Maybe it's because his posts are kinda bland. I think he looked great early on, but his contributions were more about agreeing with others than yours or Hally's. He was in touch with the thread, but not adding much of his own. GH picked this up and I had to agree with his take. It's something I'm still keeping an eye on. I don't see it as damning as GH does. I don't exactly know what to expect from Eph, but him following the thread instead of making his own solving keeps me wary.

I am prolly going to ISO you and Cuth this evening or tmr morning, but can you pinpoint me at your progression on Manty? (I still haven't read the pages between around 20 and the moment I subbed in, and haven't ISO him yet)

[dyachei]

Wait this isn't GH

gfdi

disregard my last line in the previous post

jebaited

[Manasi]

ops I think it forced me to post all of these MQ's instead of quoting more.

Hiiiiiii!!

dya, talk about your esooa push yesterDay? i find it kinda hard to believe that was a genuine read from you

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ it came off as SO lhf-esque and opportunistic for something like.. kinda benign.

gh/dya w/w

change my mind.

+1

gh, i feel like you’re playing dumb wrt dya and it reminds me of how you dismissed concerns about newcomb D1 of rocks inv

i really just don’t believe you can’t grasp why dya was wolfy D1 or why we’re concerned about them

GH putting dya-blinders on makes sense in any world I'd reckon, but yeah it seems really weird that he was so.. pushy that they weren't scum yesterday when everyone else had little to nothing to work off of (coming from me I think that's pretty funny too!!)

i seem to be a hot topic

happens when ur outed i guess

^^ Sunbae being the NK makes me think there is definatly one woof among these three.

i didn't think much of the NK in general because Sunbae is perfection but I think Rask bringing this up is a good look for him.

Scum tell (re Echks; @Visor @Esooa @pzelda). GG Manasi

GUYS THAT WAS A JOKE

I DIDN'TR EAD ANYTHING BEFORE THAT POST LOL

[dyachei]

ops I think it forced me to post all of these MQ's instead of quoting more.

Hiiiiiii!!




^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ it came off as SO lhf-esque and opportunistic for something like.. kinda benign.



+1



GH putting dya-blinders on makes sense in any world I'd reckon, but yeah it seems really weird that he was so.. pushy that they weren't scum yesterday when everyone else had little to nothing to work off of (coming from me I think that's pretty funny too!!)


happens when ur outed i guess


i didn't think much of the NK in general because Sunbae is perfection but I think Rask bringing this up is a good look for him.


GUYS THAT WAS A JOKE

I DIDN'TR EAD ANYTHING BEFORE THAT POST LOL

YOU'RE NOT LOW HANGING FRUIT

[Manasi]

Also hi bop I didn't realize that was u

ugly :)



top villas are still something like visor/hally/ephemeral

less so rask but he's up there but someone (maybe hally?) posted that he probably shouldn't be healed unless he has a particularly cromulent claim

alas

[Manasi]

YOU'RE NOT LOW HANGING FRUIT

?? i was talking about your post about esooa brother

[Maple]

YOU'RE NOT LOW HANGING FRUIT

were these caps deliberate?