Great Power contentions

[Hooahguy]

I was debating if I should post this in the Biden thread or a new thread, but I think this belongs here: Biden is going to announce tomorrow that there will be a complete withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan by the 20th anniversary of 9/11.

As glad as I am that this futile conflict is ending, I definitely consider the Afghan government to be the 21st century equivalent of South Vietnam and I expect it to fold rather quickly. Definitely within a year or two. Just finished re-watching Ken Burn's documentary series on the Vietnam War so I've been thinking about the comparisons a lot.

Now where do we go from here? Per the article I linked to, this decision was made in part due to other geopolitical considerations:

In addition to major domestic challenges, “the reality is that the United States has big strategic interests in the world,” the person familiar with the deliberations said, “like nonproliferation, like an increasingly aggressive and assertive Russia, like North Korea and Iran, whose nuclear programs pose a threat to the United States,” as well as China. “The main threats to the American homeland are actually from other places: from Africa, from parts of the Middle East — Syria and Yemen.”

“Afghanistan just does not rise to the level of those other threats at this point,” the person said. “That does not mean we’re turning away from Afghanistan. We are going to remain committed to the government, remain committed diplomatically. But in terms of where we will be investing force posture, our blood and treasure, we believe that other priorities merit that investment.”

Naturally Republicans are against this, even though Trump originally had the pullout happening in May. But Afghanistan has been a lost cause for years, and if the past 19 years weren't enough for the Afghan government to get its act together, another 2-5 won't.