Rampage Out of Space

[hollowkatt]

ok, actual clears:
csargo via pzelda/monty

semi-clears:
vro via laurentus conversation yesterday derping on pzelda ability
laurentus claims pzelda cleared him


Leaves us with the following:
hk
dolby
winston
borg

I know I'm town, so that leaves, if I believe all the clears, dolby/winston/borg to contain the SK and both wolves.
Of the two semi-clears I think the least cleared is laurentus. Wolf?Laurentus could still clear via derp town vro b/c town vro isn't going to push on wolf?laurentus b/c of the clear yeah?

Likewise that conversation could have been theater to try to get both of them cleared, but that's a tinfoil world that I'm not sure is worth digging into.

At one point Winston was claiming to have been cop checked. I'm going to go looking for that today.
I think, in all worlds, dolby has to go today.

[hollowkatt]

don't everyone respond at once.

I'd like some input as to why the clears aren't cleared, or why the POE I have is wrong, or who else needs to be examined closely

[Vroendal]

I’m sorry, Ibn. Alright, I see. My current PoE -

Csargo being mech-cleared has saved us lots of hardship, that's fantastic. Laurentus is as close to being fully cleared as I can put him, his behavior and his derp-supported absence D/N1 (which I wouldn’t consider him faking) when there were kills both from the wolves and from the SK puts him in a very good position from my perspective. If I can trust any credibility I have as someone who's played with him and observed him many times, he's town.

As for Winston, unfortunately, this is a thing:

Rereading d1 I have come to a shocking conclusion. N1, I targeted Winston alone and therefore the result isn't 100% reliable
...

So Winston isn't technically completely cleared. (Please read the original quote and following pzelda quotes on the next page for full context) Apparently I haven't been understanding pzelda's ability correctly, and availed myself of checking out what had actually been claimed. I still can't shake my suspicions of Winston from D1, but "as little as half as reliable" as stated from pzelda's role-flip implies 50% as the minimum chance to get a correct answer, so I suppose Winston is still more likely town than not. Many have been town-reading him for reasons that as of yet remain unclear to me, but on the basis of meta alone I can admit that grounding from players experienced with him point in his favor. I seem to be the only one who's wanted to push him for any good reason and I know I'm wrong a lot. In conclusion: I don't want him as a wagon at all today, but check out the interaction data from the flip just in case for sure.

Granting that most suggestions and evidence that has been brought up regarding who the SK might be has pointed almost exclusively to HK, I feel relatively confident based on that and PoE putting him as the likeliest one to be the SK.

This means that as a result of PoE, I am led to the conclusion that the wolves are most likely to be Dolby and BP. I'm rather shocked, from my perspective Dolby has had an incredible tone and what I felt to be overall great content, and I now have greater respect for his abilities. It leaves a slightly bitter taste in my mouth, but I guess there's always someone who's gonna fool you badly. Dolby and BP makes the greatest sense from Dolby's shielding angle from the start of D1 and onward, and Borg’s unwillingness to vote Dolby now. This HK push towards Dolby also makes me think HK/Dolby are more unlikely to be w/w.

The way I see it, BP and HK are always bad though, and I want one of those two as our consensus. I've got several problems with BP's latest post, but I'm too tired to fully research and debate that right now. The obvious problems though are I'm innocent, and that it's LYLO, look at the player list and run the calcs, I don't think there's a way we win if we mislynch unless the SK takes out a wolf and the wolves take out the SK, which I don't see happening, LYLO could indicate that the SK or the wolves could pull out a double-kill again

[Vroendal]

I’m sorry, Ibn. Alright, I see. My current PoE -

Csargo being mech-cleared has saved us lots of hardship, that's fantastic. Laurentus is as close to being fully cleared as I can put him, his behavior and his derp-supported absence D/N1 (which I wouldn’t consider him faking) when there were kills both from the wolves and from the SK puts him in a very good position from my perspective. If I can trust any credibility I have as someone who's played with him and observed him many times, he's town.

As for Winston, unfortunately, this is a thing:

Rereading d1 I have come to a shocking conclusion. N1, I targeted Winston alone and therefore the result isn't 100% reliable
...

So Winston isn't technically completely cleared. (Please read the original quote and following pzelda quotes on the next page for full context) Apparently I haven't been understanding pzelda's ability correctly, and availed myself of checking out what had actually been claimed. I still can't shake my suspicions of Winston from D1, but "as little as half as reliable" as stated from pzelda's role-flip implies 50% as the minimum chance to get a correct answer, so I suppose Winston is still more likely town than not. Many have been town-reading him for reasons that as of yet remain unclear to me, but on the basis of meta alone I can admit that grounding from players experienced with him point in his favor. I seem to be the only one who's wanted to push him for any good reason and I know I'm wrong a lot. In conclusion: I don't want him as a wagon at all today, but check out the interaction data from the flip just in case for sure.

Granting that most suggestions and evidence that has been brought up regarding who the SK might be has pointed almost exclusively to HK, I feel relatively confident based on that and PoE putting him as the likeliest one to be the SK.

This means that as a result of PoE, I am led to the conclusion that the wolves are most likely to be Dolby and BP. I'm rather shocked, from my perspective Dolby has had an incredible tone and what I felt to be overall great content, and I now have greater respect for his abilities. It leaves a slightly bitter taste in my mouth, but I guess there's always someone who's gonna fool you badly. Dolby and BP makes the greatest sense from Dolby's shielding angle from the start of D1 and onward, and Borg’s unwillingness to vote Dolby now. This HK push towards Dolby also makes me think HK/Dolby are more unlikely to be w/w.

The way I see it, BP and HK are always bad though, and I want one of those two as our consensus. I've got several problems with BP's latest post, but I'm too tired to fully research and debate that right now. The obvious problems though are I'm innocent, and that it's LYLO, look at the player list and run the calcs, I don't think there's a way we win if we mislynch unless the SK takes out a wolf and the wolves take out the SK, which I don't see happening, LYLO could indicate that the SK or the wolves could pull out a double-kill again

[Vroendal]

Ugh. Is the host allowed to delete posts?

Double-posting a wall is a major oof and it wouldn't accept my edit.

[Laurentus]

ok, actual clears:
csargo via pzelda/monty

semi-clears:
vro via laurentus conversation yesterday derping on pzelda ability
laurentus claims pzelda cleared him


Leaves us with the following:
hk
dolby
winston
borg

I know I'm town, so that leaves, if I believe all the clears, dolby/winston/borg to contain the SK and both wolves.
Of the two semi-clears I think the least cleared is laurentus. Wolf?Laurentus could still clear via derp town vro b/c town vro isn't going to push on wolf?laurentus b/c of the clear yeah?

Likewise that conversation could have been theater to try to get both of them cleared, but that's a tinfoil world that I'm not sure is worth digging into.

At one point Winston was claiming to have been cop checked. I'm going to go looking for that today.
I think, in all worlds, dolby has to go today.

Okay, yeah, if you're Town, take everything HK says with a massive dose of salt, this tinfoiling to the closest thing we have to a town leader at LYLO has basically just outed that whatever he is, it ain't Town.

And we can start treating the SK as almost scum, too, although we have to hit it last.

[Laurentus]

To recap who everyone wants to kill:

Vro wants to chop Dolby and/or Borg.
Borg wants to chop Vro.
HK wants to chop Dolby.
Dolby wants to chop Vro. (As near as I can tell, he didn't offer up HK or Borg as a potential chop, and he's choosing not to tinfoil Winston).

So my own PoE of Borg and Dolby both want to chop Vro and Vro wants to chop both of them.

@Winston Hughes, where you at?

[Laurentus]

Only scum team equity I see here for Vro is with me and HK. Could be with Dolby, which would explain Dolby's reluctance to wanna offer up more than "Vro is Town individually, though." But I think there's much clearer team equity between Dolby and Borg.

[Winston Hughes]

@Winston Hughes, where you at?

Can't fault my timing.

[hollowkatt]

To recap who everyone wants to kill:

Vro wants to chop Dolby and/or Borg.
Borg wants to chop Vro.
HK wants to chop Dolby.
Dolby wants to chop Vro. (As near as I can tell, he didn't offer up HK or Borg as a potential chop, and he's choosing not to tinfoil Winston).

So my own PoE of Borg and Dolby both want to chop Vro and Vro wants to chop both of them.

@Winston Hughes, where you at?

Now I want to chop you

[Laurentus]

Now I want to chop you

Do explain your thought process.

[hollowkatt]

Do explain your thought process.

you have two bad posts today. The first bad post is the one where you tell everyone to take what I'm saying with a massive dose of salt.
I said yesterday when people started floating theories that I'm bad (mafia or SK didn't matter) that yesterday was 100% the right day to chop me.
YOU yourself said "no HK, you are town and you are stuck here" and with extremely little analysis or thought you shift that read 180 degrees into "HK isn't blindly trusting me therefore he is a bad guy".

That's not how town should play lylo here. If anything you, as town, should be thankful that I'm taking my time and talking through possibilities and how I'm reading the thread so that we can all get on the same page, right?

Just because I'm saying of the semi-clears you could still be a wolf doesn't mean I'm wolfing here, it means I'm trying to ensure that the people we have as "cleared" are actually cleared.

Your second bad post is where you recap where every one wants to kill. Dolby has put me on his list of bad guys as well, and has for at least one phase, so for you to say he's not offering me up is wrong.

Finally, your post towards winston, saying "the more you talk the more I'm itching to policy you" stifles discussion, eliminates a voice from your consideration and for what? Nothing that I can see from you points towards Winston being a wolf or the SK here.

Talking about policy, even as a joke, in lylo is something town should never ever do.

[Laurentus]

you have two bad posts today. The first bad post is the one where you tell everyone to take what I'm saying with a massive dose of salt.
I said yesterday when people started floating theories that I'm bad (mafia or SK didn't matter) that yesterday was 100% the right day to chop me.
YOU yourself said "no HK, you are town and you are stuck here" and with extremely little analysis or thought you shift that read 180 degrees into "HK isn't blindly trusting me therefore he is a bad guy".

That's not how town should play lylo here. If anything you, as town, should be thankful that I'm taking my time and talking through possibilities and how I'm reading the thread so that we can all get on the same page, right?

Just because I'm saying of the semi-clears you could still be a wolf doesn't mean I'm wolfing here, it means I'm trying to ensure that the people we have as "cleared" are actually cleared.

Your second bad post is where you recap where every one wants to kill. Dolby has put me on his list of bad guys as well, and has for at least one phase, so for you to say he's not offering me up is wrong.

Finally, your post towards winston, saying "the more you talk the more I'm itching to policy you" stifles discussion, eliminates a voice from your consideration and for what? Nothing that I can see from you points towards Winston being a wolf or the SK here.

Talking about policy, even as a joke, in lylo is something town should never ever do.

You... realise that reads changing are a thing, don't you? I was also SRing Csargo until we scanned him and found he was inno. That, coupled with everything I outlined in my first post, let me put you in my PoE - again, in my very first post. To claim lack of progression is a horrifyingly bad take from you.

As to your second paragraph, I have seen it time and time again that when scum gets cornered, they latch onto the unlikeliest of worlds in order to try and get the heat off them, and with you being in my PoE, your tinfoiling of me came across as exactly that.

As to your Dolby point, do you think I'm swayed by him offering you up at some point in the past? I asked him how my Winston and Vro reads could be wrong, and he couldn't answer at that point. Instead he said he was not going to try and argue against my Winston read and Vro looked really towny, too. So just by process of elimination, since he needs to remove one of them from the town world in order take their place in it, I took his "but Vro looks so towny, ugh" as a sign that he was reluctantly choosing to question Vro's alignment there. I also don't have perfect memory of everyone and who they've scum read at all points in the game.

And then on to the Winston one, I was getting agitated by his tin-foily nonsense for the same reason I got agitated by your tin-foily nonsense.

[Laurentus]

you have two bad posts today. The first bad post is the one where you tell everyone to take what I'm saying with a massive dose of salt.
I said yesterday when people started floating theories that I'm bad (mafia or SK didn't matter) that yesterday was 100% the right day to chop me.
YOU yourself said "no HK, you are town and you are stuck here" and with extremely little analysis or thought you shift that read 180 degrees into "HK isn't blindly trusting me therefore he is a bad guy".

That's not how town should play lylo here. If anything you, as town, should be thankful that I'm taking my time and talking through possibilities and how I'm reading the thread so that we can all get on the same page, right?

Just because I'm saying of the semi-clears you could still be a wolf doesn't mean I'm wolfing here, it means I'm trying to ensure that the people we have as "cleared" are actually cleared.

Your second bad post is where you recap where every one wants to kill. Dolby has put me on his list of bad guys as well, and has for at least one phase, so for you to say he's not offering me up is wrong.

Finally, your post towards winston, saying "the more you talk the more I'm itching to policy you" stifles discussion, eliminates a voice from your consideration and for what? Nothing that I can see from you points towards Winston being a wolf or the SK here.

Talking about policy, even as a joke, in lylo is something town should never ever do.

Like, I can square the take here, just showing up to a thread where someone was previously TRing you and is now either SRing or TP-ing you (Third-party-ing, I will die on this hill I've just created) might be a convincing reason for a response like this - if it didn't ignore literally my first post of the day where I specifically pointed out my PoE was now Dolby/Borg/HK due to the Csargo = Town result, Vro being derped and Winston already having a scan on him, and that one of these was the people in my PoE SK, and I believed it to be HK. I explained my progression in the very first post of the round. So this felt like it was pushing an agenda.

[Winston Hughes]

I don't understand why we're at lylo, but, to break the habit of a lifetime, I also don't feel like I ought to give it any more thought at this point.

The essential fact is that the host says we have to chop scum today.

And unless Csar has some shocking revelation lined up to change the dynamic here - or Laurentus changes his mind on Vroe - I'm at the point where I have to treat dolby, hk and borg as confirmed villains.

I mean, if I let paranoia off the leash, I could quite easily cook up a case against Vroe - I voted there yesterday, after all - but I have a strong sense that that would only move the dial at all if Vroe was actually town.

So, with a scum chop required, the question presents itself to me in quite straightforward terms:

Is there any way that HK and Dolby could actually be scumbuddies here?

If not, we chop borg.

If so...

*sucks air through teeth*

[Laurentus]

I don't understand why we're at lylo, but, to break the habit of a lifetime, I also don't feel like I ought to give it any more thought at this point.

The essential fact is that the host says we have to chop scum today.

And unless Csar has some shocking revelation lined up to change the dynamic here - or Laurentus changes his mind on Vroe - I'm at the point where I have to treat dolby, hk and borg as confirmed villains.

I mean, if I let paranoia off the leash, I could quite easily cook up a case against Vroe - I voted there yesterday, after all - but I have a strong sense that that would only move the dial at all if Vroe was actually town.

So, with a scum chop required, the question presents itself to me in quite straightforward terms:

Is there any way that HK and Dolby could actually be scumbuddies here?

If not, we chop borg.

If so...

*sucks air through teeth*

Yeah, reason I'm reluctant to go after Borg right now is because there is a possibility he's the SK. Well, a stronger likelihood than Dolby as SK, anyway, with how Borg started to scum read Tim late D1 (I still don't buy this nonsense that he's a cop, lol, although I admire your tenacity in sticking with your story, Borg).

[Laurentus]

Can anyone recall what Borg's position on Panda was?

[Laurentus]

Okay, yeah, I can't really see what putting this off is going to accomplish. Either Vro is the best goddamned Wolf in history to have faked that derp, or he's just Town here. I now fully embrace my read of Vro as Town. GG if you're woofin'.

Winston I'm still not completely sold on, but I'm also struggling to see a lot of team potential.

Borg and Dolby have had each other's backs all the way, which is Indicative of a team, really.

HK is just SK, with the potential to be bad with exactly Dolby if it's in fact Borg who is SK.

So I think I'm'a just activate Voltron now:
@Csargo @Winston Hughes @Vroendal

Join me in:

Vote: Dolby

and let's see who's right, and who's dead.

[Winston Hughes]

Okay, yeah, I can't really see what putting this off is going to accomplish. Either Vro is the best goddamned Wolf in history to have faked that derp, or he's just Town here. I now fully embrace my read of Vro as Town. GG if you're woofin'.

Winston I'm still not completely sold on, but I'm also struggling to see a lot of team potential.

Borg and Dolby have had each other's backs all the way, which is Indicative of a team, really.

HK is just SK, with the potential to be bad with exactly Dolby if it's in fact Borg who is SK.

So I think I'm'a just activate Voltron now:
@Csargo @Winston Hughes @Vroendal

Join me in:

Vote: Dolby

and let's see who's right, and who's dead.

My current hypothesis is that Dolby is the sk.

[Winston Hughes]

Borg and Dolby have had each other's backs all the way, which is Indicative of a team, really.

This is true.

But has it not been a bit obvious?

[Winston Hughes]

Yeah, reason I'm reluctant to go after Borg right now is because there is a possibility he's the SK. Well, a stronger likelihood than Dolby as SK, anyway, with how Borg started to scum read Tim late D1 (I still don't buy this nonsense that he's a cop, lol, although I admire your tenacity in sticking with your story, Borg).

This has reminded me of a fleeting thought I had a few days back, but didn't linger on at the time...

From the start, the scum knew there was a third party. It wasn't clear until n1 that the 3P was scum-hostile, iirc. But the image of the spider-eyed, toothy, wolfy thing being at the top of both sign-ups and game thread doesn't exactly suggest a neutral survivor role, to my eyes at least.

It doesn't seem a major leap to think the scum were concerned about getting killed by the 3P. Indeed, it might explain why Tim didn't spam up the thread in his usual manner (which, full disclosure, I'm a little sad about because Tim in full-flow is a thing of beauty).

And if they also had reason to suspect the existence of some kind of town investigative power (which is hardly unlikely even if they didn't have any inside knowledge), then Tim being something of an investigation magnet (takes one to know one) there would seem good reason for Tim's buddies to preemptively distance themselves.

[hollowkatt]

ok, actual clears:
csargo via pzelda/monty

semi-clears:
vro via laurentus conversation yesterday derping on pzelda ability
laurentus claims pzelda cleared him


Leaves us with the following:
hk
dolby
winston
borg

I know I'm town, so that leaves, if I believe all the clears, dolby/winston/borg to contain the SK and both wolves.
Of the two semi-clears I think the least cleared is laurentus. Wolf?Laurentus could still clear via derp town vro b/c town vro isn't going to push on wolf?laurentus b/c of the clear yeah?

Likewise that conversation could have been theater to try to get both of them cleared, but that's a tinfoil world that I'm not sure is worth digging into.

At one point Winston was claiming to have been cop checked. I'm going to go looking for that today.
I think, in all worlds, dolby has to go today.

Okay, yeah, if you're Town, take everything HK says with a massive dose of salt, this tinfoiling to the closest thing we have to a town leader at LYLO has basically just outed that whatever he is, it ain't Town.

And we can start treating the SK as almost scum, too, although we have to hit it last.

vote: Laurentus

That's not the town response to what I posted. Sorry for your rand

[Laurentus]

Lol, did HK just out as well?

[hollowkatt]

Lol, did HK just out as well?

yeah, as townie as fuck

[Winston Hughes]

Feeling more positive about my Dolby hypothesis now, L?

[Winston Hughes]

Suggest you all claim sk asap.

vote: Laurentus

That's not the town response to what I posted. Sorry for your rand

I appreciate the concept, but the execution doesn't convince.