Casual december game

[EnderWiggin]

I have no idea whether hk and boq are paired, that's not really what I was pointing out. Out of everything that hk's been accused of this game, that seemed to annoy them.

Also no idea what chainsaw means. If it's that the Renata post is a mess, then yeah. My main point on Renata is that, both EoDs look like someone who's concerned with how they're gonna be viewed in the aftermath of it all. If people don't see that, then I'm most likely wrong and Renata is just town.

At work so briefly spending some time here and not enough to do that question Justice. I'll try and remember to re-check this after work.

[Csargo]

Taffy has a very good tonal game as wolf.

Their positioning does feel very good if wolf tho, which is different to how they were last time they wolfed against me.

But Taffy is also a smart cookie and could have picked that up.

If they do see something they find wolfy they push hard for it but it's not a guarantee. Taffy comes from my homesite so I have a lot of experience with them.

That being said I could 100% be off the mark on them as they've snowed me before.

Has Taffy pushed anyone hard in your opinion?

[EnderWiggin]

Has Taffy pushed anyone hard in your opinion?

This game? No.

But the thing is she doesn't always push someone hard as town.

[Csargo]

I didn't like a couple of Taffy posts yesterday.

The Visor should die regardless of alignment, just doesn't seem like a townie thought to me. Could also just be annoyance with Visor though.

The self-quote calling it woofy is almost twtbat, just very defensive.

HK is the only person that comes to mind that Taffy's pushed. Maybe pizza, possibly ender. Visor as well.

[Renata]

Lots of us have pushed HK and lots of us haven't. He is objectively wolfy enough to be a wolf. I'd be interested if anybody still wants to say he's town and can back it up.

[dyachei]

What's the case on hk?

Well, he's not really pushed his ideas about the game very hard and he tended to do that a lot. Now he says he's trying to be less aggressive, which is fine, but like...he's not even being assertive here. And his vote on me was omgus i think

[hollowkatt]

People switching to Visor late at the last phase would be good to look into before not too long. Hollowkatt is still the best lynch in my books and should have been lynched already yesterday Vote: Hollowkatt

If one more person had switched to the wagon he would have been.

clearly it is in the wolves best interest to keep me alive for potential mistakes further down the road. Like ok, you've got a guy who draws wagons like drawing breath but isn't going over, it's not because he's being saved it's because it's not in their best interest for me to go yet.

[hollowkatt]

i dont see the stretch.
Our real timing ended up with both of us town reading each other after we had placed votes on each other

It can easily look like distancing tbh

I'd counter with this though: if we're distancing why are we arriving at a town conclusion on each other? That does more to pair, if we're trying not to pair, than coming away opposed still as being opposed allows the living, should one of us die, to point to the flip and the interaction that we had and attempt to clear themselves based on that.

Coming away with t/t conclusion only serves to link harder as opposed to distancing. Maybe I'm being too simplistic here but why do hard things when doing easy things is easier and you get away with them more?

[EnderWiggin]

Got a brief bit of time to look into things rn, break at work.

Time for me to do more sortin'

[hollowkatt]

if ender is town, i think ladd could be scum, regardless of my own read of ladd. Because if Ender is town, ladd has strictly pushed only townies. This would mean that Amy is town too

Ladd has been killed! He flips mafia goon.

You may proceed.

@Csargo, @hollowkatt, @Montmorency, @Ampharos, @dyachei, @EnderWiggin, @ladd, @Vulgard, @Boquise, @Renata, @Totally not Taffy, @Kagemusha

swag helluva shot vulgard

[hollowkatt]

wouldn't it be funny if Ladd and Ender were wolves together again.

[EnderWiggin]

wouldn't it be funny if Ladd and Ender were wolves together again.

It would.

But also I would explicitly not distance with him because that's how we got caught last time.

[EnderWiggin]

none of this doesn't make sense so sure.

I'll share my town reads if/when I arrive at them, there's a slight niggling of something on Ender I think is positive but I'm sitting on that for the time being.
I don't believe in towntells because I think any wolf worth their salt can towntell, like you said in 189 only replace derp/dumb with town or wolf at your leisure.

Hey HK did you ever explain what this niggle was on me?

[hollowkatt]

I was once again asking the thread to turn on Ender, and in response the players get all wack.

This is a more lost and fragmented Town than usual, huh.

Csargo >> Renata >> HK >> Monty >> Ender

And then Renata had to break the chain with the OMGUS.

I wonder if we could have ended the game then and there had Enderwiggin dropped in to close the loop by voting Csargo.

(I wouldn't be surprised if Mafia are setting up antispew through derailing conflicts throughout the day as Ender gets hard-bussed.)

I think Ender is town and won't be advocating for him to die

[hollowkatt]

Hey HK did you ever explain what this niggle was on me?

I didn't!
but I will, brb

[hollowkatt]

I didn't!
but I will, brb

I hate this site some times. I know it was early early in the game but no search allows me to see more than 100 posts for a player in a thread. halp plx

[EnderWiggin]

The reason I asked this question is the complaint comes from a person who either believes or knows all of those people are wolves.

Because there was no villagery vigilance here. Just talking about them like EnderWiggin knows they are town.

And the answer to my query did not, in fact, enlighten me as to how he arrived at this conclusion in bold red.

To go back to this for anyone keeping track of the game:

I assumed that wolves wouldn't pile onto me wholesale. So I assumed that having a small volume of people wolfreading me over my deliberate faux pas was filled with majority town.

I still maintain that I think 3/4 of it was town at least.

[EnderWiggin]

I hate this site some times. I know it was early early in the game but no search allows me to see more than 100 posts for a player in a thread. halp plx

Control + F is your friend.

Yes ISOs suck here. =P

[EnderWiggin]

i feel like exactly the people i would expect to be wolf read pre-rand are the ones people are most concerned about

I still don't like this post. Just noting here.

I think this (Especially with the clarification of "Amy") is meh on a "odd sus with no venom" level.

[EnderWiggin]

Aotp = Attack of the Pizza

I chuckle at my own jokes.

[hollowkatt]

ok, found what I was looking for

What is it about how I post that gets me wolfread every other game.

I swear I flip a coin at gamestart and no matter how I'm trying to post I get a bunch of early wolfreads or townreads and I don't feel like I'm posting any different.

And it's not alignment reliant because it's happened both ways as either alignment.

If I'm honest I was weaponising exactly this to see how people reacted to my Monty vote with no reasons.

post 1: townie self-awareness and frustration of "no matter what I do I get the wolf read" and then combine that with the second post and there's zero interest in self-preservation that I can see.

there's also these:

There's also another obvious wolfread here. But also I'm not saying it for another 20 hours just in case.

HK used to like playing with me.

Then he took an EnderTunnel to the knee.

I like the first post there for town because it draws peoples attentions, reminds them that you're sitting on something you'll share later, if at all, and generally isn't something I think a wolf wants to do to draw attention to themselves especially not when people like Visor, Pizza, and Logic are town as they're the kinds of players who are not going to forget about something like that.

The post I quote about me is not how I expect wolf Ender to approach the thread even if it is a joke, and I believe the post to be a joke. I've talked with Ender post Ender wolf/HK town games and not once has he ever expressed anything like this, and not once have I ever expressed I don't enjoy playing with him.

I was asking specifically, the people wolf reading you this game.

Name by name, do you think they are town or mafia yet, or do you not have an opinion?

Taffy/Monty = NAI or towny, unsure yet
Pizza = I have thoughts about this response but it's NAI broadly
Logic = wolfy (If I'm right on this then Monty is 100% town because the tell is how Logic "Piggybacked" off the read to push me.)

Finally these. They're follow-ups to the first set of posts I quoted and it's Ender putting solid thoughts into the thread, making semi-association reads off of those thoughts, and engaging directly with the most dangerous person in this thread.

Obvs Ender is not a wolf who's shy about going toe to toe with people but if I'm a wolf and have the opportunity to dodge/avoid Pizza I'm taking it.

All of this rolled together equaled "I'm pretty sure Ender is town"

[EnderWiggin]

I disagree with this, Ender's scumread on Asks was equally premature and based on stuff he should know is NAI as I think Asks' read on Ender is. They could both be wrong town, or it could be distancing since, if Asks is a wolf, he can't expect to endgame so he needs to do that right from the start.

Actually this is mildly wolfy hmmmm

[EnderWiggin]

Yes to be clear that was a joke because you early-voted me. Or early sussed me. I don't remember. I just remember you reacted badly to my Monty poke and so it was funny to me to say that.

Also thanks for that explanation I'm doing diving thoughts so will get back to you.

[EnderWiggin]

Dya/Ladd/Amy is not w/w/w

Just reading back and I'm more and more confident on this read.

[EnderWiggin]

Not to mention early mindmeld with Ender.

Given my record lately I'm probably wrong on both.

Alongside my other reasons to townread Renata this post specifically after Ladd goes full "yeet Ender" mode feels at odds with the steps wolves would want to take.

Weak townread can't hard clear but gut level I think it's towny.

[EnderWiggin]

I think HK is town.

His explanation is consistent with where his brain was going on D1/D2.

That would be impressive if he was wolf.

[EnderWiggin]

Actually dunno if I townread Amy after all. Putting that in a bluh after a read over.

I need to get back to work now so that's all for now. I think Dya/Monty is my highest wolfreads after those reads Ijust did.

[EnderWiggin]

Taffy needs to be reviewed better. I think that's possibly the most likely pocket that I've been stuck in.

[hollowkatt]

Dya/Ladd/Amy is not w/w/w

Just reading back and I'm more and more confident on this read.

can it be ladd/dya or ladd/amy or do you think that amy/dya are always the same

[Montmorency]

Summarizing my sentiments on the wagonomics so far, ahead of reading ladd for tomorrow:

D1

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

The following should be the current tally:

Logic (5): Amy, Ender, Vulgard, Ladd, Visor
Visor (2): Montmo, Logic
HK (2): Taffy, Csargo
Luv2spooge (1): HK
ATPG (1): luv2spooge
Ender (1): ATPG
Renata (1): Kagemusha
Kage (1): Boquise

Late-mid D1. Logic always a dominant candidate D1.

Logic (5): Amy, Ender, Vulgard, Ladd, Visor
Visor (2): Montmo, Logic
Kage (2): Boquise, Csargo
HK (1): Taffy
Luv2spooge (1): HK
ATPG (1): luv2spooge
Renata (1): Kagemusha

Late D2. Almost identical.

Ender (4): Ladd, Csargo, dyachei, Logic
Logic (3): Amy, Ender, Vulgard
Ampharos (3): Boquise, Visor, Renata
Visor (1): Montmo
HK (1): Taffy
Luv2spooge (1): HK
Renata (1): Kagemusha
Ladd (1): luv2spooge

EOD in 18 minutes friendos

Amp and Ender wagons appear. If Amp is maf, Boq looks good, though his initiation of the wagon could certainly be a calculated risk.

EOD1, final tally:

Logic (7): Amy, Ender, Vulgard, Taffy ,Visor, Renata, Cape
Ender (5): Ladd, Csargo, dyachei, Logic , monty
Ampharos (2): Boquise, ATPG
Luv2spooge (1): HK
Renata (1): Kagemusha
Ladd (1): luv2spooge

Final tally. I don't believe there would have been any reason for more than two scum to sit on a wagon together for extended periods. So on the Ender wagon, Csargo-dyach should be antipaired.

D2

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Boquise (2): Ender, Visor
Visor (1): HK
Vulgard (1): pizza
Monty (1): Vulgard
Ender (1): Renata

Shortly after Pizza's reveal.

Ender (4): Renata, Vulgard, Ladd[/COLOR][/B], Boquise
Amy (2): Visor, Ender
HK (2): Kagemusha, Taffy
Visor (1): HK
Dya (1): Pizza
Vulgard (1): Amy
Kagemusha (1): Cape

Nearly 12 hours later, Ender and Amy are once again prime contenders.

Ender (5): Renata, Ladd, Boquise, Vulgard, Dyachei
Visor (4): HK, ATPG, Ender, Taffy
HK (1): Kagemusha
Vulgard (1): Amy
Kagemusha (1): Cape
Taffy (1): Visor

chillax friendos.

Late D2. The Visor wagon has appeared. I didn't think there were more than 2 scum on Ender D1, and there's still really no reason at all for scum not to spread out D2. Ladd may have one, or even zero, partners voting with him on Ender.

Visor (3): HK, Ender, Taffy
Ender (3): Renata, Ladd, Vulgard
Kagemusha (2): Cape, Visor
HK (2): Kagemusha, dya
Vulgard (1): Amy

argl, ninjaed by Boq

EOD in 3 hours 40 minutes roughly

EOD movements. Boq unvoted Kage and Dya moved to HK. As in D1, we have a situation with two townie wagons, plus an alt wagon on a low-impact player.

EOD2, Visor has been yeeted under the sun! He flips vanilla town

Visor (6): Ender, Taffy, Renata, Csargo, HK, Boq
Ender (4): Ladd, Vulgard, Monty, Visor
HK (3): Kagemusha, dya, Cape
Vulgard (1): Amy

Final consolidation. Renata from Ender to Visor, Csargo on Visor, HK back on Visor, Boq on Visor.
Monty on Ender (and Visor self-pres). Ender wagon is pure other than for ladd. :P
Kage wagon fades for self-pres and Cape adds to HK.
Amp again ends the day parked off-wagons.

Once again, we must not expect any wagon to contain more than two scum - though I do believe Visor was dangerous enough that he had at least one scum voting him for sure.

Ladd-dya makes sense for separating out from Ender wagon to avoid association.

HK scum is tricky because it can still fit with a large series of permutations.

Most natural pairings on Visor wagon are Taffy-Csargo and HK-Boq. Renata has been at odds with HK and Csargo, but that isn't dispositive.

Kage and Amp will remain wildcards until a second mafia is flipped, so we shouldn't focus there.

Teams of interest: Taffy-Csargo + Amy/Kage; ladd-dya-... teams difficult to assess from VCA, better to ISO dya;

Thoughts on the thread D3:

*Kage and Amy AWOL, and in case you didn't expand the VCA I count them as wildcards for now.
*I could be biased since I'm entertaining, mechanically, a Csargo-Taffy pairing, but Csargo and Taffy seem a bit frozen, tentatively reaching out for shades to keep alive (let me repeat how sketchy Csargo's unusually-assertive case on Renata looks in the immediate aftermath of the Mafia leader (ladder) openly parking on Ender in response to my call).