Casual december game

[Csargo]

I'm not gonna say I believe strongly in anything I say, as either alignment, that's just how I do things.

I went into yesterday wanting to look at the people Visor brought up, because I thought Visor probably had the best view of the game of anyone. So that's what I did. I'm not gonna say I did a good job, but that's what I was trying to accomplish.

I simplified what was essentially my problem with you and Taffy. I think they were reasonable to bring up, though I doubt I did a good job of it. I never looked at Boq tho, which is a problem.

[Renata]

The problem with your posts on day one? They're kinda trash. They don't really say anything. A mild negative on Logic without any real details (which *fine*, it's day one), and the response to Pizza on Ender says less than nothing too (which is more of a problem because it was a lot of words to say so little).

I had you in PoE on my first day two reads list because of these posts, pretty sure I did write it down. Then by the time I would have gotten round to doing anything about it I thought you were posting much better.

Day three vote was because of your case on me, which again relied *heavily* (aside from the Ender bit) on stuff that's weird, with absolutely nothing said about why "weird" is scummy.

It's not good. It is very very questionable and if you are town and posting like this, please don't.

To clarify yet further, both of those day one posts do a great impression of a wolf who knows they're looking at townies trying to lynch townies.

[Renata]

Looking forward to seeing you address Boquise then.

[Csargo]

Sure I'll stop.

[Montmorency]

Just reviewing the ladd ISO again, we can say that dya's D2 contradiction

#1646: Visor asks dya for thoughts on ladd: ladd is lean villager so is taffy. I think the way taffy's approaching the game is decent. I find myself nodding along with his posts
#1690s: Asks Visor about his ladd case, doesn't like taffy's pop-in either. In response to Visor's wall-case responding to dya: yeah i think he hasn't spent enough time in the thread for me to get a good read on him

was an absolute slip of the classical variety. (Since my original wording was unclear, what this shows is that dya leaned villager on ladd at Visor's prompt, then a couple hours later dya read Visor's ladd case and decided they didn't have enough information to read ladd.)

This too was textbook.

#730s: First interactions. Ladd makes his second appearance of D1 (see commentary) and dyachei immediately asks for ladd's read on themselves. Ladd responds concisely: "You seemed villagery enuf."

All the D3 votes by player in order of how they voted. bold is where they ended.
someone smarter than me solve this plx

I'm telling you, after Vulgard's/ladd's reveal strategies reset to null. The gamestate was such that voting dyachei is inherently treatable as a bus. D1-2 is where the action is at.

[Renata]

Yeah I think so too.

I got through the first 25 pages which is as much as I'm going to be able to do tonight.

So far I have interactions with (living players only) Csargo, Amy, Boquise, Ender, Monty.

Boquise stands out as the most sketchy, with a light scumread for decent reason that's retracted for a really weak reason. She winds up fourth on his town list after that (second on the "leans town" list, which is Visor, Dyachei, HK, luvs). It feels pretty bad.

Csargo looks great to me on the other hand in a spew sense. Chucks in a (Visor and) dyachei can be yeeted if Logic is town comment referencing one of Dyachei's posts that vaguely references Logic. Then he turns around and makes it clear that at the moment he's reading both Visor and Dyachei as town, and Logic as scum. It's weird in a good way.

Amy's interactions with Dyachei feel pure, with the only real yikes being a dyachei list of light villa reads that includes two dead townies and Amy.

Ender there's very little, one unfocused question from Dyachei to Ender, one response. Null read.

Monty's just a single comment from Dyachei that she didn't even notice he was in the game. Probably null too.

Vote: Boquise for now.

[Renata]

I'll try to write this all up fancy-like when I'm done. If there will actually be time for me to do this, I don't know.

[Renata]

Fuck me I did the pronoun wrong again. I'm sorry, this has got to suck to read, if you are.

[hollowkatt]

Just reviewing the ladd ISO again, we can say that dya's D2 contradiction



was an absolute slip of the classical variety. (Since my original wording was unclear, what this shows is that dya leaned villager on ladd at Visor's prompt, then a couple hours later dya read Visor's ladd case and decided they didn't have enough information to read ladd.)

This too was textbook.






I'm telling you, after Vulgard's/ladd's reveal strategies reset to null. The gamestate was such that voting dyachei is inherently treatable as a bus. D1-2 is where the action is at.

I'm not inclined to agree with that conclusion. I think there's actionable information contained therein and want to spend a lot of time on the people who looked vv disconnected from engagement yesterday throughout the day. Namely Taffy, Kage, Amy, Boq, with a side of Renata for good measure. This was to collate the votes. Now I'm going back through and reading the reasons they gave, if any, and where in the day we were.

[EnderWiggin]

Unvote

And Amy too
which means Dya is town as well


niiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiice

God I hate it.

[EnderWiggin]

Kage I need a read on.

Can people gimme thoughts on Kage?

[Renata]

I have no useful thoughts on Kage. Unless there's something unexpectedly juice in the iso it's going to be a case of who gets eliminated from consideration and what worlds are left.

[Montmorency]

Boq and Tally are good cases to explore today.

Kage I need a read on.

Can people gimme thoughts on Kage?

Mechanically could be with anyone really (except HK for reasons I forget, and Amy because come on). Nothing militates against an independent scumread if you want one.

But...

If Kage is town then Mafia NEED him as an ML. I don't know that there's a single player alive who would venture to clear Kage - even Amy is approaching rand for most - so it's a real landmine of a slot that needs careful handling.

I'm not inclined to agree with that conclusion. I think there's actionable information contained therein and want to spend a lot of time on the people who looked vv disconnected from engagement yesterday throughout the day. Namely Taffy, Kage, Amy, Boq, with a side of Renata for good measure. This was to collate the votes. Now I'm going back through and reading the reasons they gave, if any, and where in the day we were.

Don't take it from me. To quote one of Pizza's essays:

What is harder to analyze is Bussing.

Because straight up killing a wolf is how town has to win the game.

A wagon of 7 votes appears on a wolf. Some of those have to be townies, but who? Some can be wolves, but even then, they might not be.

Town, in hunting my partners for bussing, will hurt their own townies who are solving properly.

Bussing creates the situation where town has to kill townies for doing things townies have to do in order to win games.

I am also very good at bussing. It's my strategy every game as a wolf, everyone knows it, and it still works, because it is the strongest strategy by far and it is anti-analysis.

7 people on a wolf. You're one of them and town. Which of the other 6 names are my partners? How many of them are?

Now, suppose you find them eventually. Wagon on my partner.

Which of the people on THAT wagon is a wolf? If any?

Remember, you also have to consider people who defended them, ignored them, distanced from them. All of those are also viable, so when I bus 80 percent of the time, the remaining 20 percent is my partners who are NOT getting caught when you suspect bussing.

But I bus and get bussed enough you HAVE to consider it.

Therefore, everyone on the second wolf wagon is a suspect besides yourself. And everyone off wagon as well.

Bussing, find partner 2 in a list of 10 names. Again, find partner 3 in a list of 9 names. Find partner 4 in a list of 7 names.

Bussing gets a wolf to endgame because once everyone in town has killed a wolf, everyone has town credit.

Which means no one has town credit. Everyone is null. Everyone is a suspect. Everyone can have bussed. It is anti-analysis.

The wolf nightkill can land on anyone, because everyone is equally villagery, and everyone knows the wolves hid within the townsiding strategy of bussing.

D3 started with potentially no one on the Mafia team being POEd. Late D3 was Mafia leader flipped with a goon getting heavily cased and wagoned. Totally different environment from D1-2. It's also why one of the worst actions Csargo has taken all game involved a case he made just prior to ladd's flip.

[EnderWiggin]

I do agree D3 is the best day for analysis because wolves were reversed on hard after having a game basically going in their favour.

[Montmorency]

I do agree D3 is the best day for analysis because wolves were reversed on hard after having a game basically going in their favour.

I was saying the opposite.

How scum relate to the thread, to townies, to each other, has two phases: before ladd's flip, and after. Dya was in full antispew after the flip. We should expect the same for the other two.

[EnderWiggin]

I was saying the opposite.

How scum relate to the thread, to townies, to each other, has two phases: before ladd's flip, and after. Dya was in full antispew after the flip. We should expect the same for the other two.

Yes, but wolves would have been reeling in the moment on D3.

Even the best wolves usually have to recalibrate when gamestate hard shifts against them.

[Csargo]

D3 kills motivation/morale/momentum for a wolf team that was in a good position coming into the day. Especially with Pizza blowing himself up and seemingly not clearing anyone in Vulgard/Ender. You look for the people who had the wind knocked out of their sails. You find wolfs in that pile.

[Csargo]

I don't have any thoughts on Kage outside of what I've already said.

[Boquise]

ZZZZ
I feel like Kage was a vanity wagon made in hope to remove the oomph from the main wagons

[hollowkatt]

God I hate it.

stop thinking my thoughts

Unvote

And Amy too
which means Dya is town as well


niiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiice

this exists

[hollowkatt]

Kage I need a read on.

Can people gimme thoughts on Kage?

ego solve: kage is a wolf and they've been trying to kill me for days now

[hollowkatt]

Boq and Tally are good cases to explore today.



Mechanically could be with anyone really (except HK for reasons I forget, and Amy because come on). Nothing militates against an independent scumread if you want one.

But...

If Kage is town then Mafia NEED him as an ML. I don't know that there's a single player alive who would venture to clear Kage - even Amy is approaching rand for most - so it's a real landmine of a slot that needs careful handling.



Don't take it from me. To quote one of Pizza's essays:





D3 started with potentially no one on the Mafia team being POEd. Late D3 was Mafia leader flipped with a goon getting heavily cased and wagoned. Totally different environment from D1-2. It's also why one of the worst actions Csargo has taken all game involved a case he made just prior to ladd's flip.

I'm still working on the voting analysis but assume you're right for a hot second. That would put the POE squarely at:
Csargo, Monty, Amy, Kage if you really do think the Dya wagon is pure in which case we kill all of them yeah?

[Boquise]

Also yeah I genuinely believe that Dya-Amy was a match, which I stated early in the game, so it isn't weird that I town clear Dya through my reason to town clear Amy. My initial post where I explain my reasoning with Dya-Amy pairing wasn't met with any criticism or head tilt. Iirc people even agreed.

But yea, out of context that post where i town clear looks bad.

[EnderWiggin]

Vote: Taffy

Sorry friend, but you have been wolfsiding.

Talk to me about your viewpoint please.

[hollowkatt]

I was saying the opposite.

How scum relate to the thread, to townies, to each other, has two phases: before ladd's flip, and after. Dya was in full antispew after the flip. We should expect the same for the other two.

I don't think dya ever got established. their pushes were weak, they were thread disconnected, and they never brought any kind of case or thought to the thread that had any meat to it. That's what triggered me on dya in the first place, they were functionally the definition of milquetoast.

that being said I agree with ender and csargo here:

Yes, but wolves would have been reeling in the moment on D3.

Even the best wolves usually have to recalibrate when gamestate hard shifts against them.

D3 kills motivation/morale/momentum for a wolf team that was in a good position coming into the day. Especially with Pizza blowing himself up and seemingly not clearing anyone in Vulgard/Ender. You look for the people who had the wind knocked out of their sails. You find wolfs in that pile.

Wolves couldn't have expected vulgard to nuke Ladd. Nor could they have anticipated a dogpile on dya to end the day. I think, like ender and csargo do, that post ladd nuke wolves were scrambling to figure out what they could do. Do you think wolves were busing Dya and if so who are the wolves in this bucket: Taffy, HK, Boq, Renata, Ender?

Like first you call out Amy and Kage for being off wagon (while the taffy wagon was you and csargo) and now you are saying post ladd was a bus-like situation. I've got a bad feeling about you

Just reviewing the ladd ISO again, we can say that dya's D2 contradiction



was an absolute slip of the classical variety. (Since my original wording was unclear, what this shows is that dya leaned villager on ladd at Visor's prompt, then a couple hours later dya read Visor's ladd case and decided they didn't have enough information to read ladd.)

This too was textbook.






I'm telling you, after Vulgard's/ladd's reveal strategies reset to null. The gamestate was such that voting dyachei is inherently treatable as a bus. D1-2 is where the action is at.

vote: monty

[hollowkatt]

Also yeah I genuinely believe that Dya-Amy was a match, which I stated early in the game, so it isn't weird that I town clear Dya through my reason to town clear Amy. My initial post where I explain my reasoning with Dya-Amy pairing wasn't met with any criticism or head tilt. Iirc people even agreed.

But yea, out of context that post where i town clear looks bad.

do you think they can still be a match? a team that consists of ladd/dya/amy would make some amount of sense given gamestate, kills, and why we were tearing each other apart looking for wolves that just weren't here

[hollowkatt]

ZZZZ
I feel like Kage was a vanity wagon made in hope to remove the oomph from the main wagons

kage on D3 never got higher than 2: amy/monty

[Boquise]

do you think they can still be a match? a team that consists of ladd/dya/amy would make some amount of sense given gamestate, kills, and why we were tearing each other apart looking for wolves that just weren't here

Yes, but monty, renata and Taffy think it ain't valid soooo

[Boquise]

kage on D3 never got higher than 2: amy/monty

A counterwagon gotta start somewhere - doesn't mean an attempt will always be successful. I think if Kage is town then Amy/Monty have higher scum equity. Monty has however been townsiding imo yesterday so I am more into Amy.

Like, remember how ladd treated my FoS on Kage. He encouraged it, gave it his blessings. I do not think he does that to a LHF wolf teammate. Ladd knows by now that it is easy to make me doubt by questioning my reads tbh

[Boquise]

Vote Amy

I think i am being kinda biased here tho because if Amy is a wolf then it is such an in your face towards the naysayers tbh