Casual december game

[EnderWiggin]

I do agree D3 is the best day for analysis because wolves were reversed on hard after having a game basically going in their favour.

[Montmorency]

I do agree D3 is the best day for analysis because wolves were reversed on hard after having a game basically going in their favour.

I was saying the opposite.

How scum relate to the thread, to townies, to each other, has two phases: before ladd's flip, and after. Dya was in full antispew after the flip. We should expect the same for the other two.

[EnderWiggin]

I was saying the opposite.

How scum relate to the thread, to townies, to each other, has two phases: before ladd's flip, and after. Dya was in full antispew after the flip. We should expect the same for the other two.

Yes, but wolves would have been reeling in the moment on D3.

Even the best wolves usually have to recalibrate when gamestate hard shifts against them.

[Csargo]

D3 kills motivation/morale/momentum for a wolf team that was in a good position coming into the day. Especially with Pizza blowing himself up and seemingly not clearing anyone in Vulgard/Ender. You look for the people who had the wind knocked out of their sails. You find wolfs in that pile.

[Csargo]

I don't have any thoughts on Kage outside of what I've already said.

[Boquise]

ZZZZ
I feel like Kage was a vanity wagon made in hope to remove the oomph from the main wagons

[hollowkatt]

ZZZZ
I feel like Kage was a vanity wagon made in hope to remove the oomph from the main wagons

kage on D3 never got higher than 2: amy/monty

[Boquise]

kage on D3 never got higher than 2: amy/monty

A counterwagon gotta start somewhere - doesn't mean an attempt will always be successful. I think if Kage is town then Amy/Monty have higher scum equity. Monty has however been townsiding imo yesterday so I am more into Amy.

Like, remember how ladd treated my FoS on Kage. He encouraged it, gave it his blessings. I do not think he does that to a LHF wolf teammate. Ladd knows by now that it is easy to make me doubt by questioning my reads tbh

[Boquise]

Vote Amy

I think i am being kinda biased here tho because if Amy is a wolf then it is such an in your face towards the naysayers tbh

[Boquise]

Also yeah I genuinely believe that Dya-Amy was a match, which I stated early in the game, so it isn't weird that I town clear Dya through my reason to town clear Amy. My initial post where I explain my reasoning with Dya-Amy pairing wasn't met with any criticism or head tilt. Iirc people even agreed.

But yea, out of context that post where i town clear looks bad.

[EnderWiggin]

Vote: Taffy

Sorry friend, but you have been wolfsiding.

Talk to me about your viewpoint please.

[Totally not Taffy]

Vote: Taffy

Sorry friend, but you have been wolfsiding.

Talk to me about your viewpoint please.

I believe Renata is a wolf. There's a chance Boquise is also a wolf, especially if I'm right about Renata - except that their posts today give me pause

renata, why is it that you are focusing on my low-hanging fruit posts and not the posts where i have answered your questions and critique tbh?

...as well as p2525, but otoh their exchanges could be some very good distancing, they sort of go from bouncing ideas off of each other to scumreading eachother back and forth.

I have residual tinfoil about you, because you've been paying me compliments this game and it's not what you usually do as either alignment - in fact, fmpov it always looks like you have a rather low opinion of me as a player, so it all reads like



Other than that it no longer matters - either I'm right and hopefully Renata flips wolf today or I endorse getting rid of me before LyLo.

Kage I need a read on.

Can people gimme thoughts on Kage?

Wolves at this point of the game shouldn't have such low investment. It's not solid evidence obviously but he doesn't fit with what a wolf should look like atm, and he very much fits as a delectable misyeet.

[hollowkatt]

Also yeah I genuinely believe that Dya-Amy was a match, which I stated early in the game, so it isn't weird that I town clear Dya through my reason to town clear Amy. My initial post where I explain my reasoning with Dya-Amy pairing wasn't met with any criticism or head tilt. Iirc people even agreed.

But yea, out of context that post where i town clear looks bad.

do you think they can still be a match? a team that consists of ladd/dya/amy would make some amount of sense given gamestate, kills, and why we were tearing each other apart looking for wolves that just weren't here

[Boquise]

do you think they can still be a match? a team that consists of ladd/dya/amy would make some amount of sense given gamestate, kills, and why we were tearing each other apart looking for wolves that just weren't here

Yes, but monty, renata and Taffy think it ain't valid soooo

[Renata]

Also yeah I genuinely believe that Dya-Amy was a match, which I stated early in the game, so it isn't weird that I town clear Dya through my reason to town clear Amy. My initial post where I explain my reasoning with Dya-Amy pairing wasn't met with any criticism or head tilt. Iirc people even agreed.

But yea, out of context that post where i town clear looks bad.

Your day one progression on Dyachei is terrible in and of itself.

[Boquise]

Your day one progression on Dyachei is terrible in and of itself.

Nah

[hollowkatt]

Also yeah I genuinely believe that Dya-Amy was a match, which I stated early in the game, so it isn't weird that I town clear Dya through my reason to town clear Amy. My initial post where I explain my reasoning with Dya-Amy pairing wasn't met with any criticism or head tilt. Iirc people even agreed.

But yea, out of context that post where i town clear looks bad.

it's not weird that you did it, it's with hindsight that it looks bad for you. Fortunately I'm currently leaning "looks bad enough to be good" as while you're an incredible player I have never seen you be that level of brazen with partners and given that when you'd written that Amy was being voted by Kage and Dya wasn't even on the table, really.

You did have Amy/Dya as matched way before Ladd flipped and I follow your logic on how you got there and how you got to the town read.

[Boquise]

it's not weird that you did it, it's with hindsight that it looks bad for you. Fortunately I'm currently leaning "looks bad enough to be good" as while you're an incredible player I have never seen you be that level of brazen with partners and given that when you'd written that Amy was being voted by Kage and Dya wasn't even on the table, really.

You did have Amy/Dya as matched way before Ladd flipped and I follow your logic on how you got there and how you got to the town read.

well the thing is that looking at singular posts without context, then stuff changes tbh. So thats why I wanted to point it out. I agree that the post alone looks bad, at the same time... I have no tmi. Sometimes I will misclear wolves. It happens tbh

[hollowkatt]

I was saying the opposite.

How scum relate to the thread, to townies, to each other, has two phases: before ladd's flip, and after. Dya was in full antispew after the flip. We should expect the same for the other two.

I don't think dya ever got established. their pushes were weak, they were thread disconnected, and they never brought any kind of case or thought to the thread that had any meat to it. That's what triggered me on dya in the first place, they were functionally the definition of milquetoast.

that being said I agree with ender and csargo here:

Yes, but wolves would have been reeling in the moment on D3.

Even the best wolves usually have to recalibrate when gamestate hard shifts against them.

D3 kills motivation/morale/momentum for a wolf team that was in a good position coming into the day. Especially with Pizza blowing himself up and seemingly not clearing anyone in Vulgard/Ender. You look for the people who had the wind knocked out of their sails. You find wolfs in that pile.

Wolves couldn't have expected vulgard to nuke Ladd. Nor could they have anticipated a dogpile on dya to end the day. I think, like ender and csargo do, that post ladd nuke wolves were scrambling to figure out what they could do. Do you think wolves were busing Dya and if so who are the wolves in this bucket: Taffy, HK, Boq, Renata, Ender?

Like first you call out Amy and Kage for being off wagon (while the taffy wagon was you and csargo) and now you are saying post ladd was a bus-like situation. I've got a bad feeling about you

Just reviewing the ladd ISO again, we can say that dya's D2 contradiction



was an absolute slip of the classical variety. (Since my original wording was unclear, what this shows is that dya leaned villager on ladd at Visor's prompt, then a couple hours later dya read Visor's ladd case and decided they didn't have enough information to read ladd.)

This too was textbook.






I'm telling you, after Vulgard's/ladd's reveal strategies reset to null. The gamestate was such that voting dyachei is inherently treatable as a bus. D1-2 is where the action is at.

vote: monty

[Montmorency]

I'm still working on the voting analysis but assume you're right for a hot second. That would put the POE squarely at:
Csargo, Monty, Amy, Kage if you really do think the Dya wagon is pure in which case we kill all of them yeah?

I'm not following. I didn't say the dya wagon was pure, I said we have to take bussing into consideration (i.e. not pure). Just like, you know, Pizza spent 1000 words explaining in the quote.

Wolves couldn't have expected vulgard to nuke Ladd. Nor could they have anticipated a dogpile on dya to end the day. I think, like ender and csargo do, that post ladd nuke wolves were scrambling to figure out what they could do. Do you think wolves were busing Dya and if so who are the wolves in this bucket: Taffy, HK, Boq, Renata, Ender?

They had 36 hours to adjust to the threadstate, which was increasingly anti-dya, with few alternatives put forward as serious votes. This is surely enough for bussing to be possible.

If you don't know who I suspect out of that list of names, you should reread my posts since D3.

Like first you call out Amy and Kage for being off wagon (while the taffy wagon was you and csargo) and now you are saying post ladd was a bus-like situation. I've got a bad feeling about you

Are you going to pursue forthright misunderstandings every day then?

At no point did I connect Amp's or Kage's alignment to their wagon position D3. If you'll recall, I did earlier highlight that they had each ended off-wagon on one of the prior days, so it was remarkable to see them both doing it.

As Pizza explained, and I agree, it doesn't have to be a bus situation, we just have no choice but to read it as one, particularly in the context of the D3 gamestate, which to repeat was much more restricted than that of early game. Therefore, voting dya D3 does not confer town-cred, unless you can find a single player who made the dya wagon happen above others. They, at least, get a pass, but not a clear. To my awareness there isn't anyone who fits that description, other than maybe ender.

So stop wasting time on hard-defending Day 3.

[Montmorency]

the question is if dya votes ender knowing wolf!ladd and wolf!csargo are already there
3 wolves on the same wagon.

I usually read this as town points for the unflipped player, which is csargo
That Logic is voted by Amy, Ender and Vulgard, only 1 flipping town, makes me draw back towards Amy being a wolf but I guess it could be pure, given that the counter wagon is a town (imo) and the second largest is a confirmed town too.

I think Csargo is town due to ladd and Dya already being on Ender. HOWEVER I can see why wolves would commit 3 wolves on 1 town wagon in hopes to save Amy, but that doesnt fit the timeline of votes (and Amy's wagon rising in votes). It also doesnt fit with occam's razors. Ladd and Dya are competent wolves. Idk who Csargo is, but he seems to be competent as a player. It is better to have at least 1 more wolf on the other town wagon (Logic). Otherwise wolves are boxed in. This makes Csargo also unlikely.

I've had the feeling that your run-through today has been makework, but this is a reasonable post, unbiased by the knowledge that I said it earlier.

I'm wondering why three wolves would pile on to save Amy who's really not been any kind of impactful, didn't show signs of being impactful, and generally was already scraping "disassociated wolf" reads from others in the thread. I feel like that would be antithetical to smart wolf play there. If someone not really contributing is getting sussed exerting effort like that to save them runs the risk of outing the whole team, yeah?

lol read my posts

wolf dya asks town visor to ask about random player x minutes away from eod.
This comes out from nowhere.
"hey i am a wolf and now i will bring up my teammate out of nowhere as the wagons are moving"

nah.

I make a note of this in my upcoming ISO, but are you sure you're not trying to pocket HK?

That means at least 1 of Amy and Taffy is a wolf.

Yes, and not very surprising.

in hindsight dya was a wolf being caught for the wrong reasons tbh

I think the reasons I developed were pretty strong.

this is a bit of a retcon on my kage/hk clearings because apogee was n1'd and what really stood out with his play was his ladd vote.
So I suppose Cape could have died for being correct somewhere

Cape was hard on ladd multiple times D2, and voted him at least once (I recall briefly during EOD).

This makes no sense. Let me try again.

You NEVER told Dyachei or stated in any way that you had retracted your scum read on them, prior to you saying you were going to town read them because they kept responding to you even after you retracted your scum read.

Not so?

#419/38: Dya questions the validity (via Boq's approbation) of Pizza's suspicion of Vulgard's level of tilt; dya finds annoyance non-indicative and references own experience. Boq agrees but considers disproportionate annoyance scum-leaning in a vacuum. But Boq now wishes to rescind this impression of Vulgard as the latter has posted more.

#426: Boq tells Pizza he's rescinding the weak scum read on dya.

[Boquise]

I've had the feeling that your run-through today has been makework, but this is a reasonable post, unbiased by the knowledge that I said it earlier.



lol read my posts



I make a note of this in my upcoming ISO, but are you sure you're not trying to pocket HK?



Yes, and not very surprising.



I think the reasons I developed were pretty strong.



Cape was hard on ladd multiple times D2, and voted him at least once (I recall briefly during EOD).



Not so?

#419/38: Dya questions the validity (via Boq's approbation) of Pizza's suspicion of Vulgard's level of tilt; dya finds annoyance non-indicative and references own experience. Boq agrees but considers disproportionate annoyance scum-leaning in a vacuum. But Boq now wishes to rescind this impression of Vulgard as the latter has posted more.

#426: Boq tells Pizza he's rescinding the weak scum read on dya.

i meant that dya felt caught for the wrong reasons on d1 in their interaction with me tbh

nah i am not pocketing hk, but he and i have history.
We had a back and forth on D2 where I was voting him and then I decided to town read him based on his answers.
I pocketed HK hard in a recent scum game of mine, and in an even more recent game we were towning but I was unsure on his alignment. So I wanted him to show his teeth so I could make a read tbh

but like, given how dya really really really wanted HK to be yeeted, even threw his name into the ring at eod1 and got iirc Csargo talk about HK being a bit sketch, I think it is safe to assume HK is town tbh

[Renata]

I've had the feeling that your run-through today has been makework, but this is a reasonable post, unbiased by the knowledge that I said it earlier.



lol read my posts



I make a note of this in my upcoming ISO, but are you sure you're not trying to pocket HK?



Yes, and not very surprising.



I think the reasons I developed were pretty strong.



Cape was hard on ladd multiple times D2, and voted him at least once (I recall briefly during EOD).



Not so?

#419/38: Dya questions the validity (via Boq's approbation) of Pizza's suspicion of Vulgard's level of tilt; dya finds annoyance non-indicative and references own experience. Boq agrees but considers disproportionate annoyance scum-leaning in a vacuum. But Boq now wishes to rescind this impression of Vulgard as the latter has posted more.

#426: Boq tells Pizza he's rescinding the weak scum read on dya.

I had no idea what post 426 meant when I read it and dismissed it as some kind of in joke that I didn't get.

So that's not a contradiction. I'm left with trying to decide whether the fairly weak day one interaction was scummy in itself (while taken at face value) and whether or not the constant shading thrown at me toDay means anything at all. I have a big issue with the post where he goes after me for shoving Visor into an early grave. He is townreading Hollowkatt and Ender both pretty hard right now, and they were the other two wagons that came up on day two. So why scum-shade me for pushing Visor in particular? I can only think of one potentially legitimate reason, and I haven't seen him say anything that would suggest he was thinking it at the time. Just the bare assertion that being assertive and wrong is scummy. Which is kind of easy for scum to shade somebody on.

My insomnia is kicking my ass again today but I'm going to try my hardest to at least get through the rest of the Dyachei spew before I have to lie down.

[Renata]

@Boquise

You had one post yesterday where you shaded me for pushing Visor hard on day two. The other two wagons that day were people that you are townreading pretty hard right now. Tell me what makes you so suspicious about me pushing one townie wagon over a different one. What was in your head when you made that post.

[Boquise]

I had no idea what post 426 meant when I read it and dismissed it as some kind of in joke that I didn't get.

So that's not a contradiction. I'm left with trying to decide whether the fairly weak day one interaction was scummy in itself (while taken at face value) and whether or not the constant shading thrown at me toDay means anything at all. I have a big issue with the post where he goes after me for shoving Visor into an early grave. He is townreading Hollowkatt and Ender both pretty hard right now, and they were the other two wagons that came up on day two. So why scum-shade me for pushing Visor in particular? I can only think of one potentially legitimate reason, and I haven't seen him say anything that would suggest he was thinking it at the time. Just the bare assertion that being assertive and wrong is scummy. Which is kind of easy for scum to shade somebody on.

My insomnia is kicking my ass again today but I'm going to try my hardest to at least get through the rest of the Dyachei spew before I have to lie down.

I told you in a post today that it wasn't a contradiction and i even showed you the whole conversation in context.


You're over-repping my shade on you. You're making it sound like it is some mindless thing, like a tunnel, when it isn't. I have criticised you and I have been paranoid. I am still waiting for you to explain how I am being aggressive tbh. Or was it you taking a shot and now can't stand for it tbh?

The reasons to town read Ender and HK are correct. I don't understand why it matters that they were also wagons but you pushed another townie hard?

"Just the bare assertion that bring assertive and wrong is scummy. Which is easy for scum to shade somebody on". Like how it is easy to shade someone who's playstyle you have decided is illegitimate tbh

[hollowkatt]

I'm not following. I didn't say the dya wagon was pure, I said we have to take bussing into consideration (i.e. not pure). Just like, you know, Pizza spent 1000 words explaining in the quote.



They had 36 hours to adjust to the threadstate, which was increasingly anti-dya, with few alternatives put forward as serious votes. This is surely enough for bussing to be possible.

If you don't know who I suspect out of that list of names, you should reread my posts since D3.



Are you going to pursue forthright misunderstandings every day then?

At no point did I connect Amp's or Kage's alignment to their wagon position D3. If you'll recall, I did earlier highlight that they had each ended off-wagon on one of the prior days, so it was remarkable to see them both doing it.

As Pizza explained, and I agree, it doesn't have to be a bus situation, we just have no choice but to read it as one, particularly in the context of the D3 gamestate, which to repeat was much more restricted than that of early game. Therefore, voting dya D3 does not confer town-cred, unless you can find a single player who made the dya wagon happen above others. They, at least, get a pass, but not a clear. To my awareness there isn't anyone who fits that description, other than maybe ender.

So stop wasting time on hard-defending Day 3.

nothing you've written changes my mind

[Totally not Taffy]

I don't think dya ever got established. their pushes were weak, they were thread disconnected, and they never brought any kind of case or thought to the thread that had any meat to it. That's what triggered me on dya in the first place, they were functionally the definition of milquetoast.

that being said I agree with ender and csargo here:




Wolves couldn't have expected vulgard to nuke Ladd. Nor could they have anticipated a dogpile on dya to end the day. I think, like ender and csargo do, that post ladd nuke wolves were scrambling to figure out what they could do. Do you think wolves were busing Dya and if so who are the wolves in this bucket: Taffy, HK, Boq, Renata, Ender?

Like first you call out Amy and Kage for being off wagon (while the taffy wagon was you and csargo) and now you are saying post ladd was a bus-like situation. I've got a bad feeling about you



vote: monty

The contradiction Monty pointed out in Dyachei's reads on Ladd was a very convincing argument for them being a wolf, and not something someone else was likely to point out yesterday. That's some heavy commitment to the bus there, when he could have put that energy into pushing me (or anybody else).

[Renata]

I am too tired to think anymore. I wish I could do more, read more things, but it's not possible. Good luck everybody.

[hollowkatt]

The contradiction Monty pointed out in Dyachei's reads on Ladd was a very convincing argument for them being a wolf, and not something someone else was likely to point out yesterday. That's some heavy commitment to the bus there, when he could have put that energy into pushing me (or anybody else).

hai taffy thanks that makes sense

got a solve?

[EnderWiggin]

I'm probably changing off Taffy.

I've been forcing some rereading through the pain and I am reminded why I had them town in the first place.

Thinking.