Motion Detect 15er GAME THREAD

[Raskolnikov]

I want to elim between hk and ender today. I just need to decide which I find wolfier. Gut feels say HK but I need to look at some posts to see if it's warranted

fwiw, my daughter turned 1 this weekend and my in laws are in town. I haven't had a ton of time to be in thread

Rask - i think it's weird you're so preoccupied with my logic push from d1 when I looked at the flips d2 and said I was pretty sure he was a villa? Like why are you not considering that part of the equation?

I am really not preoccupied fwiw. I just wanted to make clear my confidence in you being villa at EOD2 was me assuming Logic would flip wolf. I was actually not considering your push there. But rather how he pushed you ("if Dya posts short questions they are wolf") D1.

[Raskolnikov]

Happy birthday to little Dya! <3

[dyachei]

Happy birthday to little Dya! <3

she loves icing! She was confused at first and I had to show her that the icing was edible. But once she started she was unstoppable

[Raskolnikov]

she loves icing! She was confused at first and I had to show her that the icing was edible. But once she started she was unstoppable

Did you use a comics brand finally lol? (on my side I really hope it was the last paw patrol year lol. I am done with Marshall)

[ladd]

vote:hollowkat

[YOLOSWAG]

My vote is on HK in spirit but I’m trying to pretend this lunch wasn’t predetermined 3 phases ago

[ladd]

My vote is on HK in spirit but I’m trying to pretend this lunch wasn’t predetermined 3 phases ago

Whats your reads?

i am open to considering other things

Even spicy ones

[dyachei]

looking at hk posts. first thing is that there are a ton more posts than I thought there'd be which isnt great because almost none of them are memorable

In all seriousness how familiar are you with Syn because for me this is solidly in his town play. I don't generally see wolf Syn fuck off and make those kinds of posts, at least not until they're more established in the game. I associate what he's said thus far with his town play, hence my post. Your mileage may vary.

this read of syn to baudib is like...super non-specific. Doesnt feel like a real read to me

I have a baseline for everyone that I've got experience with. If that baseline is met I lean them town until either the baseline isn't met or isn't necessary, or if they town tell in some way (rendering the baseline unnecessary). Thus far Syn has done nothing that deviates from the baseline. Should that happen I'll adjust my read.

this is the kind of thing I think hk did a lot of in his lost wolf game. There were a lot of reads where he just decided someone was a villager and didnt really explain it well.

His read on me is a little better in that he actually explains it

His baseline is to be dry, acerbic, and rather unenthusiastic about existing. Oh wait that's his IRL baseline it just happens to coincide with his mafia playing baseline. Wolf Syn wants to be ingratiated into the game moreso than town Syn does. Town Syn generally doesn't give a flying fuck about anything, wants to make the posts he wants to make, and isn't looking to advance any kind of agenda, just wreck wolves.

It's probably not smart to town read Syn off of his extremely early game posts but I did it anyways and I'm happy with his posting afterwards as well.

As far as holistic thoughts about the game:

I have vastly more town reads than wolf reads. I like, for town:

you, dya, raskol, Visor, noraplus, and wisdom.
Yolo maybe.

Everyone else is some flavor of "idc/don't have a read/could be wolf" and I'm ok with that. Except Ender, I think he's furry.

I think, specifically about dya, that they're reacting hard to how I played the last game here. I was lost wolf, played it completely straight (as if I were town), helped chop two of the three members of the wolf team, then won in F3. Dya recognizing the similarities is good but arrived at the wrong conclusion. The only reason that play style worked is I had no idea who the wolf team was so I could hunt wolves as town does. Once the last pack wolf was dead I had to survive two days. We got Boq on D6 and F3 was me, Ender, and Monty. I had ender pocketed and basically voted monty and peaced out of the thread. Ender never wavered (in thread anyways) on me being town so the game was done.

I think Dya arrives at that conclusion rather naturally and is concerned that I'm using the same type of tactics/strategy in this game. The problem is that there's no lost wolf who's anti town but also uninformed. That's the only reason I was able to get the win. I "correctly" sused out Dya and got them chopped and then "correctly" voted Kagemusha to get them chopped as the last pack wolf. Then I inherited the NK and went from there.

but look at all the village reads he makes and how many he actually explains

what makes pzelda a good d1 regardless of alignment? my experience with them is they're solid and almost never a liability.

soft defense of zelda

why is pzelda a wagon? cliffs is fine

and again

I thought Rask had a decent point when he said Ender was going out of his way to prevent pzelda from being a "thing", made a post in response to rask and dropped the vote on Ender. Ender is "fine" but "fine" Ender has high potential to be wolfEnder. I find Town Ender to be more aggro/more interested in making his pushes last or go somewhere legit but here he is being vocal and calling things out but doesn't seem to care about driving anything to any kind of conclusion.

baudib is meh to me. They latched onto "hk is weird" early and tried to ride me for that for a while and it's fine. I don't think he had bad intentions pushing me. That's probably the most charitable thing I can say atm.

like the same could be said for hk here (regarding ender trying to make zelda not a thing).

doesnt think we had w/w wagons d1. I dont remember who else was in serious contention that day but maybe logic? if so, that could be a little bit of TMI

there are a lot of like...derp clears/attempted derps. Like saying wisdom is a good vote.

susses baudib a decent amount but doesnt do much about it. v!hk is usually more aggressive with his reads so this feels odd. Well, I mean, until today. he shaded baudib starting from d1

ur moneys no good here and you've been riding my jock for two days now. find a new pony or you know do something about it. Like for as vociferous as you've been about HK is a wolf you strangely keep winding up on someone elses wagon at the end of the day, and you don't actually do much to stump for my chop, you're just loudly annoying about it to start a game day and then kinda poofs out.

are you stringing me along and poisoning the well or are you actually trying to solve?
next question: do you have me paired with Ender or do you think I have him fooled?

this feels like the shade of someone wildly out of touch with thread happenings. Also he v read visor to this point

my secret tinfoil there is Ender realized how powerful hard pocketing can be and is going for that, but tangentially not directly. Like he doesn't sheep my calls, he doesn't build me up, he doesn't engage in conversations where I "sway" him to my pov. Instead he talks to other people about me being town and saying what he's said. So sure, tinfoil says "be ware"

that said ender isn't playing this game like any wolf game I've seen him play, he's a very competent wolf.

Sometimes people just get a thing going and run with it. I ran with Syn being town. It felt right, still feels right, I'm sticking with it. I'm not particularly concerned with Syn being a wolf as he won't make F3 if he is, we'll fear chop him on like D5 or something.

this post is full of hedge for someone he professes to feel strongly about

I feel like I can say with some amount of accuracy that the following are not wolves:
Rask
Visor
Syn
Ender
Ladd
Dya

I suspect baudib mostly because they've wanted to call me a wolf for days but aren't actually doing anything about it.
I think Eph has some wolf potential as even during D1 they were more "ingratiating and chilling with the homies" than they were about solving the game. They ended up on the right wagon but meh

Yolo is a person of interest but that's the most I can say about them at the moment. Everyone else is dead.

so he says this is why baudib is a wolf. but he basically accused visor of doing the same thing and visor is a town read.

[dyachei]

Did you use a comics brand finally lol? (on my side I really hope it was the last paw patrol year lol. I am done with Marshall)

no, we just got her a dinosaur cake

[YOLOSWAG]

Whats your reads?

i am open to considering other things

Even spicy ones

I would say flip HK and reevaluate ? I have reason to see town in most slots outside of that

baudi/Rask are my higher strength town reads, Syn is in that area as well

Perhaps a wolf is miscleared somewhere because it seems Eph/I are getting POE?d as second lowest tier. I?m not sure if Ephe would be wolfing here as opposed to a more laidback approach. If he?s town and HK is a miss this game might be lost or is an uphill battle at best

If Hk is town then I?m going really wrong somewhere. If this is the second villager I have to flip positing a YOLO/baudi team I am throwing my MacBook out of a window

[ladd]

I would say flip HK and reevaluate ? I have reason to see town in most slots outside of that

baudi/Rask are my higher strength town reads, Syn is in that area as well

Perhaps a wolf is miscleared somewhere because it seems Eph/I are getting POE?d as second lowest tier. I?m not sure if Ephe would be wolfing here as opposed to a more laidback approach. If he?s town and HK is a miss this game might be lost or is an uphill battle at best

If Hk is town then I?m going really wrong somewhere. If this is the second villager I have to flip positing a YOLO/baudi team I am throwing my MacBook out of a window

whats your read on me/visor?

if hk is a wolf who is next iyo?

[dyachei]

my vote is on hk in spirit

hey ladd why are hk/ender unaligned iyo

[ladd]

my vote is on hk in spirit

hey ladd why are hk/ender unaligned iyo

isos stop at last 100 posts so i can't dig up (at least not rn cause i dont have time) ender d1 push on hollowkat, but hk/ender pushed each other d1 in way that doesnt really seema ligned to me

and then there is this zelda post:

Ok,
I've read everything and I only have this to say. Ender only makes sense as a wolf if he's exactly with HK. But I doubt that. It would be too easy.

if it was like wiggles i'd maybe consider this as a possible w/w/w but not a lot of wolves would make this post as w/w/w (i wouldnt) and i don't think zelda would either tbh

[dyachei]

isos stop at last 100 posts so i can't dig up (at least not rn cause i dont have time) ender d1 push on hollowkat, but hk/ender pushed each other d1 in way that doesnt really seema ligned to me

and then there is this zelda post:



if it was like wiggles i'd maybe consider this as a possible w/w/w but not a lot of wolves would make this post as w/w/w (i wouldnt) and i don't think zelda would either tbh

thanks. I'll cogitate on it

[dyachei]

V
nl
ladd

V lean
baudib
syn
eph

POE
rask
eph

W lean
hk
ender

[YOLOSWAG]

V
nl
ladd

V lean
baudib
syn
eph

POE
rask
eph

W lean
hk
ender

You have Eph on here twice

[dyachei]

You have Eph on here twice

oh, the 2nd eph is supposed to be you lol

im trying to decide if I think syn/hk would be a plausible wolf team or not

[ladd]

oh, the 2nd eph is supposed to be you lol

im trying to decide if I think syn/hk would be a plausible wolf team or not

idts

if hk is a wolf he prob tmied syn villa in his start of d1

[ladd]

You have Eph on here twice

wolfy post chief

[YOLOSWAG]

oh, the 2nd eph is supposed to be you lol

im trying to decide if I think syn/hk would be a plausible wolf team or not

Smh

Ephemeral is above Rask for you?

[YOLOSWAG]

wolfy post chief

……..

[ladd]

……..

villagery

[dyachei]

Smh

Ephemeral is above Rask for you?

yes but I cant explain why

[YOLOSWAG]

Lmao

Regarding you/Visor, my real answer is ?objectively y?all are both in range? but on a micro level, you?ve had a lot of nuance in places that I?m finding hit the same beats that I?ve had (your processes on Syn/ender specifically) that it appeals to me toward a village read

Visor is similar except I?m finding him more toward the ?let me POE this group aggressively? side of things. So basically, you see the villager in people while he sees the wolf. Lol. But at the same time I can ?get? why he susses the people he does, I?m just not sure I?ve seen anything that has me ready to lock it in. If ender is a wolf then that looks good for Visor by level 1 means because he?s steadily opposed any V reading of ender

I don?t know who would be with HK off-hand

[baudib1]

I think we need to fight against the general contentment with the status quo.

Been thinking about the state of the game and my gut says that unless it’s exactly Ender-HK, I don’t think there’s enough tension in the thread, especially wrt pushes against a wider range of targets, for this to make sense. And I was thinking Ender is wolfy but maybe that was due to me finding his tone to be incredibly annoying. I don’t like his harping on the NKs but with him strongly calling ladd a villager, it doesn’t seem as agenda-y to me. I don’t think that’s a strategy that squared with his primary push on me because Wisdom/C4 kills are not links me to me in any way. I really want to hear more about his case on me but my feeling is that I did really just lazily PoE him.

Ender is of course correct thst if he’s a villager who thinks HK is a villager then he has to find wolves, the problem is it’s not me, and so me and him really need to find each other here.

Solving becomes really problematic if HM isn’t a wolf because we all just let that happen. I’m pretty annoyed at myself for not getting there on SK.

This makes me now become a little uncomfortable with Visor’s stance that Logic-HK-SK just ends it, but no one really fought against that. It’s a little hypocritical too because I just kinda dunked on Logic just for being kinda meh.

I’m curious why no one really wants to examine Ephemeral - he’s someone who is most content with the status quo without doing much to build that consensus. I don’t have any idea who his top suspects are.

Dya - happy birthday �� to your little one.

[dyachei]

I think we need to fight against the general contentment with the status quo.

Been thinking about the state of the game and my gut says that unless it’s exactly Ender-HK, I don’t think there’s enough tension in the thread, especially wrt pushes against a wider range of targets, for this to make sense. And I was thinking Ender is wolfy but maybe that was due to me finding his tone to be incredibly annoying. I don’t like his harping on the NKs but with him strongly calling ladd a villager, it doesn’t seem as agenda-y to me. I don’t think that’s a strategy that squared with his primary push on me because Wisdom/C4 kills are not links me to me in any way. I really want to hear more about his case on me but my feeling is that I did really just lazily PoE him.

Ender is of course correct thst if he’s a villager who thinks HK is a villager then he has to find wolves, the problem is it’s not me, and so me and him really need to find each other here.

Solving becomes really problematic if HM isn’t a wolf because we all just let that happen. I’m pretty annoyed at myself for not getting there on SK.

This makes me now become a little uncomfortable with Visor’s stance that Logic-HK-SK just ends it, but no one really fought against that. It’s a little hypocritical too because I just kinda dunked on Logic just for being kinda meh.

I’m curious why no one really wants to examine Ephemeral - he’s someone who is most content with the status quo without doing much to build that consensus. I don’t have any idea who his top suspects are.

Dya - happy birthday �� to your little one.

what are your thoughts on rask?

[YOLOSWAG]

yes but I cant explain why

Raskol being in your POE surprises me but actually this is interesting

You said you can?t explain why ? wouldn?t it be coming from a place of considering in the event ender/HK aren?t partnered, that this is your way of wrangling a wolfread out of a bunch of townreads you have?

[Raskolnikov]

It is indeed interesting. I'd gladly hear more about it smh.

[dyachei]

Raskol being in your POE surprises me but actually this is interesting

You said you can?t explain why ? wouldn?t it be coming from a place of considering in the event ender/HK aren?t partnered, that this is your way of wrangling a wolfread out of a bunch of townreads you have?

i mean it's partially that. I just feel like I can't clear him or mostly clear him like I can with several others

[baudib1]

I’m having a really hard time divorcing my view of Rask from the ladd seal of approval, so I think we need to kill ladd first and go from there.

But no, I think he’s been generally villagery and I don’t think his Zelda push felt like a bus and without a meta read that he’s a serial busser it’s hard to get to a W read on him.

What do you like about Ephemeral?