Tarot Mafia

[grr]

These are ladds major syn and/or rask posts around eod.

The bolded part really confused me because rasks only reads on syn in the game are:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

and

I think as wolf ladd would either ignore it or use those reads as defense and not say the bolded because I don't even think it is true.
(rasks only backtrack is this "it's not impossible he tasked himself with changing his meta but I vibebe with it aorn" and that is more a backdoor than a backtrack)

If ladd and rask are both wolves then this take is useless.
But if rask is a villager ladd looks better.
I need to look at ladds actual d1 pushes outside of sheep because honestly that is what you judge him on.

to respond to this @Jan my gth take just in wolf.ladd worlds is that he would only write this to proect wolf.raskol from being explicitly vigshot after a a syn yeet but occam's razor says in that world wolf.ladd is more likely to make that read at that point to umm, make himself look aligned with v.raskol, if that makes sense.

[ladd]

some slight mech based ramblings with limit facts to back it up:

1. Maple is full of shit.
Okay this one is not surprising or a big twist. Here we go.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Maple coming up with "inverted" after we talked about it d1 (I called maple inverted moon in a conversation) is a very easy spin on things.
Nothing fancy about it. You hear a bit of "lore" and apply it to your situation to sell a wonky narrative.

But why would maple do it? Because maple loves fps more than brits love tea-time.


I will go one further. Maple is more likely a villager (this thought has even more wifom. drink with caution) doing this based on this post.
The first part makes it more believable for wolves that something happened because if it is fps they clearly did not do it.
But it also implies that it is not fully negative.

The only world I will accept where the inverse story is real is exactly a 3p aronist/marker that wins when 50% of the alive players are marked.
Because maple is likely to live for a while and most people would brush a maple claim off (for good reasons).

Thanks for coming to my ted talk.

2. Syn was actually an important role.

and this one might be a bad look for me as well but who cares about reputation in a game of werewolf:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Syn changed up his play. enough to "fool" rask early on.

The one big world where my assumption of rask would not v-read syn as w/w is if syn is an important wolf and was somewhat trying to overcome the meta.
Why would you think that?

Part 1:
The flip.
Judgement.
If you don't go into the interpretation of tarot cards which is the most likely one to associate with kp?
Exactly. Nothing screams vigilante more than Judgement.

Part 2:
Syn actually tried to overcome the meta.
I do not think Syn likes being a wolf all that much. Doing the work to overcome the meta needs a wolfchat pushing him and telling him which buttons to push.
That is a lot of work for a snarky one-line poster.

I think the people who are more likely to try and push syn to overcome said meta are ladd, rask and myself.
Not sure if anybody else would know or care enough.

Outside of the flip and syns behavior there is no real proof for this theory but I do believe it to be likely true (I will look at some iso nonsense looking for a smoking gun, but do not expect results from this).

These were my shower thoughts.
Back to your usual programming!

@ih idk what u are referencing wrt anni but i don't think i have buried anyone this game - be it wolf or villagers lol

[insomnia]

T-1h25 from EoD

yours




i'll re skim syn iso super quick

T-56mins

i agree his posting here is better (but honestly not by that much imo?) but i dont really think he has really presented an organic world view besides posting a reads list not explained

his only push afaict has been sheep for not better identified reasons


speaking of sheep, i am curious where people are at with them with the day ending

@ladd since you asked me to quote you

[ladd]

T-1h25 from EoD



T-56mins



@ladd since you asked me to quote you

i dont get how i am giving syn the benefit of the doubt at all?

artic was saying syn forming a full worldview instead of just pushing 1 guy was villagery and i answered saying that they were literally doing that (pushing just 1 guy)


again if you read all my EoD, i am obviously cool with syn dying and unless you think i am w/w with rask it's pretty unrealistic thinking i am a wolf IYAM

(wrt the syn iso, i did it. later on when i said every iso i open maple is being top villaread i was talking about syn's reads list where they are on top. idt i posted anything from the iso cause my result was simply "cool with them dying, betweenw range and v range, wouldnt shocked at either flip")

[Wisdom]

In the world I live in (syn woof, me villa) there is no need for Ladd to be so adamant pushing a villa read on me when 1 I am afk most of the day 2 thread momentum at eod makes me a prime yeet target. W!ladd can just look elsewhere and let the village kill me.
@Gemma: yes

A
Depends on who else would be wolfing but sure, I see what you mean.

[Jan]

I like those thoughts, although I can never see Rask coaching Syn lol

I don't understand why Maple's fps (if it's fps) would be town indicative?

(Also if someone's a kp wouldn't it be Death? Judgement sounds like an investigative)

All you need is them realized that they need to protect syn and rask giving pointers what to hit for a village read.
I doubt syn would really care otherwise.

The maple read is based on ">rand village action " which a wolf is less likely to add. (you get cred for wolves fucking with you not for villagers fucking with you etc)
Your millage may vary when reading into shower musings.


And Death is possible but Judgement and Justice would be more likely in my book. Those two are more active in the punishment business while death is just a guy on boat guiding your soul.

[insomnia]

can you explain why you wanted to kill jan?

i've said i had the same take, but thinking about it i thought it's pretty clear that a wolf would not aim for that type of chaining thing because all it takes is syn to flip and he's pretty much outed. is jan the type of wolf to just open wolf like that on d1 because he hates losing team mates?

i wish he didn't write all those things out because now he looks ten times worse. and i do think syn might've legit been KP which is why im rolling around with gemma / knights villa rn even though the game would be a bit odd for me if there's not a wolf there atm. but i still haven't re-read

judgement makes sense for wolf KP and last night they didn't show it, although i guess they don't need to have a full vig. i just dont know if visor is the type to associate flavor with roles

[insomnia]

man i have like 7 nulls lmfao

gonna read ender for dya next and then idk what im gonna do

[ladd]

i agree his posting here is better (but honestly not by that much imo?) but i dont really think he has really presented an organic world view besides posting a reads list not explained

his only push afaict has been sheep for not better identified reasons


speaking of sheep, i am curious where people are at with them with the day ending

yea i thought rask was ok in their limited time, i wouldnt kill them

syn i am more cool with dying. i think rask kinda backtracked a little bit on their syn read later in the day too so i wouldnt say syn being a wolf is even outing for rask

4 posts left

for reference this was all i said about syn close eod, i really dont think saying i was giving them the benefit of the doubt is a fair interpretation of the events

if i am alive on d2 i will dive into the strange case of the manti villareads cause i swear every iso i open has manti as top villa and my confusion just keeps increasing lmao

and this is the post i was talking about when i said every iso I opened had manti on top (syn iso oncluded)


@insomnia

can you explain why you wanted to kill jan?

i've said i had the same take, but thinking about it i thought it's pretty clear that a wolf would not aim for that type of chaining thing because all it takes is syn to flip and he's pretty much outed. is jan the type of wolf to just open wolf like that on d1 because he hates losing team mates?

i have already explained it, dont think i can really expand on it any more. would you villa read me if i did what jan did at eod? i bet you would be calling for my head lmao

[insomnia]

Syn is in his town meta from what I can tell.
I am kind of too lazy to look the start differences between his game again.
But rask had the same read and I don't think it is wrong. (and I doubt rask would bother to fake that read if w/w because it outs both of them)

stett feels like the most obvious villager in the game. I do not know her wolf game well.

Wisdom - has me pocketed for now. I just know I have rose-coloured glasses on and thus my opinion has little value.

you judge syn on how snarky he is. you know that.

he was dennis the menace in cereal killer as villa and ghandi in saints and sinners as wolf.

I just left my fucking bed reread 3 of his games which I was too lazy to do until you idiots started forming a wagon this late in the day. (and apparently nobody else does the legwork)

And he is not as snarky as he was before but more than he was a wolf. which is frustrating.
I would kill rask before I kill syn because Rask has called syn lock villa somewhat early and I don't think rask as villa would be wrong.

In that weird world the team is syn/rask/wisdom + whoever. I am not confident on that, but it is possible?

this was rasks last take on syn.

because I don't think rask is wrong on syn.

it can be w/w or w/v with rask w.
in either world voting rask is better.

if it is v/v either vote is bad.

im gonna leave this progression unspoilered because im sure it will help people and it's relevant

yeah. idk. the striking thing is that i asked myself why would jan care so hard about syn to the point where he'd rather flip someone else reading him first instead of just voting syn if he felt like it, but apparently he prides himself on reading syn. which then would be a weird move for why he's doing the above

but i still think that progression at EoD is something that wolves would shy away from. if im a wolf with syn in my mind and im considering the above progression, im pretty much fully accepting the fact that once syn flips, i'll also be dead without remorse and out 2/5 of the team. i think if he wanted to, he would do a better job of that, either by pushing somebody else harder or just having a defense that doesn't put him under the spotlight like this

[insomnia]

i have already explained it, dont think i can really expand on it any more. would you villa read me if i did what jan did at eod? i bet you would be calling for my head lmao

i get how it looks bad on surface level. as i said, i was tempted to open up the day just naked voting him, but then i thought a little longer and arrived to the above conclusion

[Jan]

can you explain why you wanted to kill jan?

i've said i had the same take, but thinking about it i thought it's pretty clear that a wolf would not aim for that type of chaining thing because all it takes is syn to flip and he's pretty much outed. is jan the type of wolf to just open wolf like that on d1 because he hates losing team mates?

i wish he didn't write all those things out because now he looks ten times worse. and i do think syn might've legit been KP which is why im rolling around with gemma / knights villa rn even though the game would be a bit odd for me if there's not a wolf there atm. but i still haven't re-read

judgement makes sense for wolf KP and last night they didn't show it, although i guess they don't need to have a full vig. i just dont know if visor is the type to associate flavor with roles

I have bussed 3 teammates in 2 days (in a 4 wolf team) just to get killed in final 5 against 4 actually confirmed villagers.
I have powerwolfed as well.
It depends on what the game needs. I just hate not using a dying wolf to give cred to another wolf (or discredit villagers at least).

[insomnia]

but your question is wrongly placed because you would ~never put yourself in that position in a normal as a wolf

in a mash probably cuz you expect to die and you would rather save your n1 kp and then just accept death or you can weasel out. in here it's harder

but jan is not you and you aren't jan

[ladd]

but your question is wrongly placed because you would ~never put yourself in that position in a normal as a wolf

yes, so would you be villa reading me if I did it?



(its a rethorical question i dont need an answer)

but jan is not you and you aren't jan

sadly, i wish i had his wit

[Jan]

Look guys. It is awkward because I clearly am not with syn, but you also don't want to let a wolf get away with behavior like that.

If you can't make rhyme or reason out of it right now maybe look for other potential wolves and come back to me in 24 hours when your thoughts have settled a bit more.

I don't think any of us are getting a lot out of this.

[ladd]

Look guys. It is awkward because I clearly am not with syn, but you also don't want to let a wolf get away with behavior like that.

If you can't make rhyme or reason out of it right now maybe look for other potential wolves and come back to me in 24 hours when your thoughts have settled a bit more.

I don't think any of us are getting a lot out of this.

its fine, i am over it (your eod i mean)




so who do u wanna kill and/or any spicy thoughts?

[insomnia]

@dyachei

this is gonna be a really underwhelming response to you cuz i don't have any examples, but that's because holistically i really don't view ender as wolfy at all, which im surprised myself. actually, i kinda find him pretty villagery overall. i was really expecting to come out of the ISO just telling you im really null on him, but i actually like his posting

why do you have him wolf / want him to die?

[Gemma]

off the cuff thoughts to help me feel a bit more organized

arctic
i feel p good about this v read, not like its strong but like i dont have any doubts about it atm. reminds me of last game, so many words but the thoughts are good

stett
day 1 was fine today feels like they're roleplaying a powerwolf prob like null for the time being

vanta
just made a good post plus a moment day 1 where they made me laugh and said something sort of nai but i wanted to v read it anyway for how casual it was

nebjiamn
sending posts into the void like they dont wanna interact with anyone and idk what it means

sunbae
tbh im still hurt from that time i wrote a 4 page essay about why they were a wolf 100% of the time and everyone ignored it and they endgamed so i don't want to v read them but they seem fine and not slimy i guess, i just dunno what they're really doing or what they think about anything this game

rask
i want him to be a villager more than i think he is one but i also sorta feel like he is one based on his posting today like he's fairly loose and chill when if he were a wolf i feel like he'd feel sorta outed

ladd
idk might just be v after all imma let him do his thing so wolves shoot him, he's putting in the effort at least

jan
tbh v for eod since i don't really believe he's the type of wolf to go full refuge in audacity esp for a slot like syn like is jan really in wolfchat saying guys trust me they'll v read me for this? nah

grr
seems chill i like it but could be stale

ender
made a villagery post around eod

insomnia
idk they don't strike me as the type of player to be like powerwolf-y or whatever type deal to have been taking the approaches they do at points itt but maybe i'm wrong and htye just like being belligerent bc they think it comes across as villagery (it does a bit) they just end up being kinda nulltown at the end of the day ig, though idk i just checked their iso and the syn vote is p damn smooth if a bus

wisdom
keeps v reading other people for things that i do then w reading me for the same thing which seems like standard wisdom, gth v

bop
idk are they even in this game?

maple
i hear they're in a hood

mont
anyone who says they have a read on this slot is lying

knightsofnee
tbh i fell for their (very light) ate yesterday but the "fine clearing dya until lylo" was ??? i should probably try to actually understand their reads esp on jan at some point

dobly
vaguely villagery of them to talk about a random read they had from page 2 despite it having no relevance to anyone, prob would be more so if it weren't an established read

so apparently im light v reading or null reading most everyone to some degree which seems problematic

good v reads:
arctic

semi good v reads:
jan
wisdom
ender
insom
rask
vanta

approximately fine i guess:
grr
sunbae
ladd

and then everyone else is ~somewhere

where the wolves

[Wisdom]

I still think Jan's town tbh, I like his oomph
(And he hasn't been awkward interacting with like he's been the last two games I've seen him wolf)

[insomnia]

ladd

reads on benneh / sunbae?

[Gemma]

If I understood this right the following players didn't have a vote down at EoD1:
Cobalt/Dolby
Monte
Maple
Arctic
Sunbae

Maybe not important, I just needed to write it down for my brain's sake

huh how did arctic not have a vote down

[insomnia]

My current preferences for votes, btw, are:

The duo of old susses:
Knights
Cobalt

The OMGUS duo:
Sunbae
Benneh

The other two who I haven't explained and idk if I want to atm:
Arctic
Colonel Bop

@EnderWiggin

how serious were you about sunbae / benneh? can you explain them today?

also, atm i don't think colonel / arctic holds any wolves, but it'd be interesting to see your thought process cuz the reads are so anti-consensus that it'd be easy to see if you're villaging

[Gemma]

nah they were voting syn smh wisdom

[Gemma]

2. Syn was actually an important role.

and this one might be a bad look for me as well but who cares about reputation in a game of werewolf:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Syn changed up his play. enough to "fool" rask early on.

The one big world where my assumption of rask would not v-read syn as w/w is if syn is an important wolf and was somewhat trying to overcome the meta.
Why would you think that?

Part 1:
The flip.
Judgement.
If you don't go into the interpretation of tarot cards which is the most likely one to associate with kp?
Exactly. Nothing screams vigilante more than Judgement.

Part 2:
Syn actually tried to overcome the meta.
I do not think Syn likes being a wolf all that much. Doing the work to overcome the meta needs a wolfchat pushing him and telling him which buttons to push.
That is a lot of work for a snarky one-line poster.

I think the people who are more likely to try and push syn to overcome said meta are ladd, rask and myself.
Not sure if anybody else would know or care enough.

Outside of the flip and syns behavior there is no real proof for this theory but I do believe it to be likely true (I will look at some iso nonsense looking for a smoking gun, but do not expect results from this).

These were my shower thoughts.
Back to your usual programming!

the world where u post this as a wolf is highly amusing to me

[Jan]

its fine, i am over it (your eod i mean)




so who do u wanna kill and/or any spicy thoughts?

villager? but can't fully lock it in
dyachei
knights

watchlist
Neb
Sunbae
C0balt (now Dolby)


With syn or really not with syn?
Raskolnikov
Ladd

Meow?
Maple

What the fuck is up with that?
Gemma
EnderWiggin
Wisdom
Montmorency

The people not on this list are people I am unlikely to consider today at all. (not a lot tbh)
I would not be surprised by 1-2 wolves in the watchlist tbh but I don't want to actively look into it for the next 24 hours.

I felt like I had a good grip on this game halfway through d1 but I lost most confidence in it.

Gemma and mont are slots I have no grasp on.
Wisdom I had as villa early but basically lost all confidence.
Ender similar to Widom. Mostly because so many people disagreed with my take and I don't know if I should doubledown or make a 180°.

[Jan]

the world where u post this as a wolf is highly amusing to me

I wish. Nothing more fun than rubbing your plays into other people's faces without them realizing it.

[insomnia]

Vote: nebjiamn

voting someone you didn't remember any posts from or anything villagery from seemed to work for eod1, keeping the $trat$ up

im basically looking for him to show he's having at least 10% fun and not upset because he randed wilf. some thoughts would be nice too cuz i think he's in an interesting spot

[insomnia]

vvv
grr
stett
arctic

very likely v
colonel lubriderm

very special tier of hoping it's 2 villas but it's kinda hard to stick with this without just straight up flipping them*
gemma
knightsofneeee

gth villa
jan
vanta black
Raskolnikov
enderwiggin
dyachei

null
dolby
wisdom
sunbae
benneh
Montmorency
maple

meh
ladd

*this feeling would dissuade if we keep doing good in terms of wolf flips. if we end up missing a ton, i'd revisit there, but def not for next 2-3 days

[Gemma]

Gemma and mont are slots I have no grasp on.

here i'll help

i don't bus

ur welcome for the free v read

[Gemma]

I wish. Nothing more fun than rubbing your plays into other people's faces without them realizing it.

i will cackle with glee postgame if its true