Tarot Mafia

[Montmorency]

when i say 'spk' I mean 'strong player kill' which has the connotation of meaning 'nightkill someone who is a very strong villager who will clear themselves and is likely to solve the game if cleared/alive in lylo'. And while didistetter is definitely able to clear themselves, they are still a relatively new player, at least relative to this player list, so they wouldn't be someone i would typically kill n1, normally it would be like ladd/benneh/sunbae/newcomb in this player list IMO (which is why three of the four still being alive is worrying).

In the world that i'm talking about (raskol = neut arsonist) he was fake claiming villa kp to possibly escape elim (several people who were possible wagons were claiming, he was a viable wagon, he would be able to demonstrate KP n2 if he was an arsonist). Obviously it would potentially limit his lifespan but a) if you get elimed you're dead anyways lol and b)arsonists more often than not are neutral.

I think most people are overthinking it ATM.

And yes i'm kinda using wisdom's claim to decide he's an arsonist, but wisdom claiming firefighter and then having a neutral flip that day seems too wild for me to doubt IMO. And since there wasn't a counter claim to firefighter I think wisdom is essentially always villa because it seems unlikely the setup would be just a wolf firefighter. (and even if there was a weird setup where that was the case, Wisdom wouldn't know that was the setup, and would have to assume he would get counterclaimed by a villa firefighter, and therefore wouldn't claim like he did)



One thing I failed to consider is that since there was only 2 kp shown n1 (and dya claims the shot on sheep) its technically possible that Jan did get a save on didistetter n1. the death of didistetter n2 might also make sense in that context because they killed didi after a saved kill n1.

that would be a lot of kp in a 22 person game tbh, but depending on the setup its possible.

No one said anything about you killing someone. The Mafia killed someone by their own strategy, right? Without speaking for Mafia, as far as the consensus town goes as of the state of play N1, if stetter was the gold, NC was the silver. At least, you could say they were comparably-reasonable NKs.

Without going back and forth on our interpretations of WIFOM, we should know to a fair degree of certainty as of SOD 4 whether an arsonist has died.

In general, I would be careful with inference from lack of CCs in a role-flipless game. A lot of townies are already dead.

Separately, it might be time to put together a proposed outline for the PR structure of the game.

We could figure, going by claims (knights' world):

* Rask Neutral vig (arson?)
* Ender Town unknown
* Jan Town JK
* dya Town 1-shot vig
* Maple Town inventor
* ? gifted by inventor
* Wisdom Town firefighter
* Arctic Town vig??
* ? Town? inverter??

Plus any unknown dead PRs.

Does that add up? It doesn't for me, although t-Jan always dies before t-Wisdom I should think.

[Montmorency]

I think he had bop v but I’m on phone and can’t check

its also possible he targeted maple, who he sus quite a bit and died to a pgo/reflexive mill

Did Maple make a serious gun owner claim or was that another joke? I can't parse. But either way, that sounds too YOLO for vig-Arctic to mess with. I think Arctic was just SPK. I practically town-cored him D1. Mafia always kills stetter, Arctic, and NC ASAP, no less for being like the top posters.

For the rest i dont agree with clearing wisdom from rask flip cause i dont think visor would put a firefighter just to ckunter a poor neutral. Like u are really putting a neutral arso itg which is super hard to play and also giving thr village a counter? Iyam no

Great point.

@Montmorency why did you vote and unvote Rask at EOD1? Why didn't you end on Syn? relying on rask's read?

For info, obviously. I didn't vote Syn because there was no point, he was buried.

I definitely would try to claim I did something to the person I doused right before lighting them on fire.

That sounds like a great career move./s

I don't recall accusing you of being an arsonist. Weird reaction. Don't slip on me.

Rask, btw, had a rather town-meta reaction to dya's CC IMO. When Rask gets into thunderdome territory or adjacent he becomes quite ornery as town IME. Also, leave 3P alone, you have nothing on Rask. So, who did you target N2?

Ladd townread was built around how he didn't feel like he was actively pushing a worldview. Like contrast to the game as wolf where on D1 he aggressively pushed me and would've flipped me D1 if it wasn't for Pizza and shenanigans around that.

And the game we were w/w where we distanced hard but then at EOD he was hard pushing a villager and helped me vote out Newcomb.

Both of those cases he actively was trying to cultivate a wagon, and here it just didn't feel like he had a solid direction in mind D1.

Maybe this is a stupid read but I liked it.

But it feels like a weak defense when people who have played with him more than I have start talking about how he's matching his wolf meta. And maybe it's a very slim margin but I felt like I have seen some of ladd's wolf play. Maybe lightning struck twice and I'm off base.

Compare ladd's treatment of dyachei, and maybe Kagemusha, in that game, to how he treated syn in this game. Very similar structure.

Even now no one has an idea of what the hell "inverted" is.

Wisdom is likely just a wolf with Maple Ender

Wisdom if you were scumreading Maple, why not mention it until I asked you directly? Given the position of Maple since mid-D2 that should be a slot of great interest

I think it's very possible that the inverter is town, didn't understand that inverters wasn't a strict debuff, and targetted Maple N1 thinking it was a debuff

Then probably targetted Jan N2 after Maple claimed they were self-resolvable from it bc Jan doesn't look the best but looks like the best or second best of the PR claims depending on your personal take

How does ladd-Ender-Maple-Wisdom sound? Bingo bango? Just remember that ladd-Gemma-Wisdom doesn't work.

But I really think ladd is the linchpin. If the PR claims all turn out legit, having ladd dusted is the difference between victory and defeat. Steamrolling Town PRs Maple and Wisdom because they're sketchy is a literal game-winning Mafia dream because it likely puts us at LYLO.

If I say I did would it make you happy? =P

(I didn't visit anyone last night.)

Why?

Dolby, Wisdom, and I thought it'd be funny to distance in thread. Sorry you had to come in while that was going on.

No antispewing.

Paranoid gun owner.

Maple claimed to give herself a one shot PGO N1. Knights brought up that Arctic said that his flavor (death) was a likely KP role (pretty much a soft to be found after his death that he was a town vig of some sort), and Maple was at the very bottom of his last reads list.

My personal take is that Arctic died trying to shoot maple and maybe Maple also had a shield from a card? Can't really see any other world besides him being roleblocked or redirected into Bop or Stett, which I doubt.

I'm not great at interpreting the subtleties of softs in general, but is there any more evidence for that conclusion on Arctic as KP? But even if he was, why would he butt heads with someone who claimed PGO?

[Montmorency]

Note: From D1, ladd-Gemma-Wisdom is rejected.
Note: I could swear Maple had promised to shoot within my solve, but I can't find that anywhere. Did I hallucinate it? Because if not, it would be an odd thing for an inventor with no despo shots to promise.
Note: I think Town has lost control of the thread today. My wim is fading.

Sometimes you read a thread and think "It feels like only villagers are playing right now".

For some reason reading the last page makes me feel the opposite.

lolsob



Re: Maple's gift, I'm stupid. He emphasized gifting Arctic, and Arctic is dead, so naturally no one could claim the gift today. @Dolby why did you thank my other post instead of pointing out the logical failure?

[Dolby]

Arctic said that he thought that the death flavor was likely town KP, and then when he died his flavor flipped as death

I think that was the only flavor comment he made the whole game

Maple claimed to give herself a one shot PGO N1 (she claimed to NOT use it last night) and that she gave her N2 card to Arctic

If anyone wants to claim to have visited maple last night that could be useful. I didn't

ladd-ender-wisdom-maple is my current team but I have a much higher level of doubt on ender rn. I think that Maple is just a sure hit

[Dolby]

Monty, I think I thanked that post bc I wanted to indicate to you that I intended to ask Maple what her minor arcana (the inventions she's gifting out) did. I don't think I registered that you didn't realize Arctic was the claimed target

[Montmorency]

Arctic said that he thought that the death flavor was likely town KP, and then when he died his flavor flipped as death

I think that was the only flavor comment he made the whole game

Maple claimed to give herself a one shot PGO N1 (she claimed to NOT use it last night) and that she gave her N2 card to Arctic

If anyone wants to claim to have visited maple last night that could be useful. I didn't

ladd-ender-wisdom-maple is my current team but I have a much higher level of doubt on ender rn. I think that Maple is just a sure hit

Yeah, but are comments like that crumbs, or just Apophenia?

I'm going to struggle my way through finishing and ISOing D1 for Syn and wagonomics. Maybe it'll reveal something beyond my world around Ender et al. But it's hard for me to find the motivation to fully analyze anyone while ladd's alive. Be assured that however ladd flips, I would take a close look at Ender first of all.

But that still doesn't explain why Arctic would attack someone who claimed automatic point defense (leaving aside the apparent Maple claim that it didn't activate).

Otherwise, if t-Maple/m-ladd, then everything tomorrow rides on you and insomnia being alive and town.

[Sunbae]

My wim is fading.

I had a lot last night but I think waking up and catching up has removed it. Which is fine. Old me would have dug their heels in and forced themself to barrel through despite the fact that nobody really cares about anything I'm saying (and havent all game!) until people got the message. It's why I was rarely mischopped! New me just caught up and said "hm, alright then, yall do you and ill go to lunch and say glgl" which, tbh, feels absolutely divine.

[Sunbae]

Monty seems pretty villagery fwiw

[Dolby]

Yeah, but are comments like that crumbs, or just Apophenia?

I'm going to struggle my way through finishing and ISOing D1 for Syn and wagonomics. Maybe it'll reveal something beyond my world around Ender et al. But it's hard for me to find the motivation to fully analyze anyone while ladd's alive. Be assured that however ladd flips, I would take a close look at Ender first of all.

But that still doesn't explain why Arctic would attack someone who claimed automatic point defense (leaving aside the apparent Maple claim that it didn't activate).

Otherwise, if t-Maple/m-ladd, then everything tomorrow rides on you and insomnia being alive and town.

This is a role flipless game, I believe that he left that intending for it to be remembered after his death so that any kills he made couldn't be fake claimed by mafia

I don't think there's a reason for him to mention his own flavor, without prompt, as town, and say that that flavor is likely a KP role. This is the only thing he did it to I think

I think that Arctic just thought that Maple's claim was BS. He had Maple as his biggest sus at the end of day.

I am admitidly not that confident that he shot Maple specifically, he could have been redirected or roleblocked instead, but I don't think with three kills he was roleblocked and I think the explanation I just laid out makes more sense than him being identified and redirected AND killed

Also me saying I had most doubt on Ender was that Ender is my least confident wolfread.

If it helps I re-ISOd Vanta recently, didn't say anything about it but I think they are probably town still. Gemma/Sunbae/Benneh are probably the other slots I have to reevaluate

[Dolby]

Also: I don't think wolves are in control today. I think that Maple is just a hit, I think Maple would have been a hit yesterday. If it is Sunbae/Benneh we still have time to catch them but I should work to make myself more confident in them (particularly Sunbae). I will reread Gemma but I still think the circumstances of D1 make Gemma and Knights town (I have Knights good on like, every front).

Sunbae at present what are your strongest reads?

[Sunbae]

ladd / maple / benneh / sunbae / wisdom / montmorency remain my PoE. idk, if this is like 1/4 or 2/4 then idek where to look at. is the entire team just claiming PRs? i doubt so

i kinda like dolby's posting even though i really hated some of the things he was pointing out cuz they seemed really bad faith. don't ask me for examples

i don't really get why ender is being pushed

we have a dozen PR claims and no conclusive thoughts on benneh / sunbae who have nothing going for them. benneh actually was pushing ender which is just really bad to me, but I guess I could be heavily underestimating Ender's wolfing prowess, he just seems villagery to me /shrug. kinda feels like the times I had him wolf where times where i'd just open his ISO and not think anything of him or I'd have to really force myself to find reasons to villa read him, whereas in here I just holistically villa read him on everything. toan, solving, all of it

Hey so you've been just saying "oh idk, has nothing going, link to benneh" for 3 game days now. Just read my posts and decide if im a villager or wolf!

[Maple]

@Maple

do you pick your card target during the day or at nighttime?

Like I said, the selection is a day action. The card may then be immediately used that night. Hence my claim of immediate eod feedback.

The upside to this is it can't be blocked or intercepted.

[Sunbae]

Also: I don't think wolves are in control today. I think that Maple is just a hit, I think Maple would have been a hit yesterday. If it is Sunbae/Benneh we still have time to catch them but I should work to make myself more confident in them (particularly Sunbae). I will reread Gemma but I still think the circumstances of D1 make Gemma and Knights town (I have Knights good on like, every front).

Sunbae at present what are your strongest reads?

My personal strongest reads are Dya/Knights lock villagers on my own thoughts, grr villa by sponging half the threads dead villagers, jan probably v (i thought I may have caught a mixup but I dont think i did anymore and others are saying jan obv v). In a tier below is Monty villa. Not 3p, specifically villa.

My personal against the grain read is i think ladd is a villager from eod1 but I know going to bat for that in current thread state is devastating if wrong so I'm waiting a bit to see what he posts and if I can lock it in more confidently

[Jan]

Like I said, the selection is a day action. The card may then be immediately used that night. Hence my claim of immediate eod feedback.

The upside to this is it can't be blocked or intercepted.

It is what I thought. Just double checking.
In that case I could target you and vice versa.
If I don't get a card you get executed.

Not sure if the village supports this off, but we both have day actions now apparently.

[Maple]

@Maple why did you target Arctic of all people? Feels like a clumsy pick if you're town betting your "able to self resolve" on your target, and you're not a clumsy player.

Because I had to target a player reasonably likely to be a villager who had less odds of dying. I figured bop was always dying, I figured the wolves would kill into the PRs, so I went with Arctic.

[Montmorency]

This is a role flipless game, I believe that he left that intending for it to be remembered after his death so that any kills he made couldn't be fake claimed by mafia


Also me saying I had most doubt on Ender was that Ender is my least confident wolfread.

What I mean is that Ender is my #2 by default currently and I can try analyzing the Whole again after my #1 is flipped.

Like I said, the selection is a day action. The card may then be immediately used that night. Hence my claim of immediate eod feedback.

The upside to this is it can't be blocked or intercepted.

So in principle, Arctic would have been able to use it immediately after the flip?

Depending on how kills shake out - I'm being moderate to conservative - maybe D7 is F4 or something.

By D7, there should be no chance of ladd, ender, maple, wisdom, jan, dya, knights... being alive.

It is what I thought. Just double checking.
In that case I could target you and vice versa.
If I don't get a card you get executed.

Not sure if the village supports this off, but we both have day actions now apparently.

Jesus Christ, that's almost crazy enough to work, unless you're teamed.

Thoughts, Dolby?


Some napkin math on KPs.

15 players: 11 town, 4 maf.

D3 -1
N3 -2
D4 -1
N4 - 1
D5 -1
N5 -2
D6 -1
N6 -1
D7 -1
N7 -1
D8: F3

[Sunbae]

I had a lot last night but I think waking up and catching up has removed it. Which is fine. Old me would have dug their heels in and forced themself to barrel through despite the fact that nobody really cares about anything I'm saying (and havent all game!) until people got the message. It's why I was rarely mischopped! New me just caught up and said "hm, alright then, yall do you and ill go to lunch and say glgl" which, tbh, feels absolutely divine.

to clarify: this is not woe is me this is being happy im in a place agai where mafia isnt consuming and obsessive. its hype

[Sunbae]

jan wouldnt you rb them?

[dyachei]

ender being maf would make my d1 seem a lot better in retrospect.

i can see it, too. Idk that maple is gonna be a hot tbh. maybe he is but i have severe doubts. ladd feels more likely to me

[ladd]

manti, would arctic be able to potentially kill themselves with what u gave them?

[Dolby]

Maple is saying that the card happens before night so it can't be roleblocked (unless there's a day roleblock but no way that exists). It could work but frankly, I don't want to do that because I do not necessarily think that Maple is lying about their role, I think that Maple is just a wolf. I should probably read back Arctic again from the lens of would he shoot Maple if he got a card (i.e. did he believe the card claim impacted Maple's wolfiness)

[Sunbae]

Maple is saying that the card happens before night so it can't be roleblocked (unless there's a day roleblock but no way that exists). It could work but frankly, I don't want to do that because I do not necessarily think that Maple is lying about their role, I think that Maple is just a wolf. I should probably read back Arctic again from the lens of would he shoot Maple if he got a card (i.e. did he believe the card claim impacted Maple's wolfiness)

oh i see, ty

[Sunbae]

oh duh manti said it right there

[Dolby]

reading this again i am perfectly happy to just fuck the claims and kill maple but i think it's pretty unlikely rask's role is real so i don't mind if we stick the course

this reads so much like he would have tried to shoot maple and probably would have not cared if he did receive a card

[Jan]

jan wouldnt you rb them?

I would roleblock them during the night, but their action is apparently daytime and gets delivered at Eod.

[Maple]

It is what I thought. Just double checking.
In that case I could target you and vice versa.
If I don't get a card you get executed.

Not sure if the village supports this off, but we both have day actions now apparently.

Yeah I figure that's the best line, now it's just a matter of talking the thread into it.

I'm just getting started on breakfast right now. I think it's reasonably likely that you, knights, dya, prooooooobably grrr, maybe sunbae, hard maybe insomnia as villagers but that last one is based of a pretty shaky foundation at this point. I think if there is an arsonist it's likely that the ff claim is correct regardless of alignment, but can arso usually douse/ignite on the same night? Like, maybe it's a day action and ignites at night idk. How do we know they don't just have guns? Not sure. Jan getting a n1 save is totally plausible iyam

Ender I'm not really sure on. Frankly, I'm not actually sure if this game is role madness or if the limited number of VTs are just playing along. The timing of their claim is >rand v but again idk about all that stuff.

That leaves Ben Mont gemma vanta dolby (plus whatever I'm uncertain about above)

I mean off raw vibes, gemma is decent. I forgot vanta was still alive honestly. Need to reread Ben and mont again. Rask flipping 3p is actually annoying af cause it means a bunch of thoughts i jad yesterday are just straight up invalid. I'm still on the murder dolby plan, but eh I'm probably forced to jump out of that tunnel if I don't wanna die today.

[Maple]

manti, would arctic be able to potentially kill themselves with what u gave them?

I highly doubt it. The card I gave is a symbol of craftsmen particularly pertaining to expediance and movement. Some mercurial type shit.

I also didn't activate my ability last night, and even if I did and Arctic targeted me 1) I'd die too 2) he'd have deserved it for targeting a claimed PGO. Frankly, that's insulting his intelligence.

[Maple]

If I get voted out today, just kill dolby tonight for this dumb line.

Or haul him off to prison and execute him, that'd be cool too.

ToS jailer is unstoppable and pierces immunity, does yours also Jan?

[ladd]

I highly doubt it. The card I gave is a symbol of craftsmen particularly pertaining to expediance and movement. Some mercurial type shit.

I also didn't activate my ability last night, and even if I did and Arctic targeted me 1) I'd die too 2) he'd have deserved it for targeting a claimed PGO. Frankly, that's insulting his intelligence.

alrighty i was wondering if he could have depseraod themselves


i wanna see ender claim tbh cause he is softing some inventor stuff and idk if both of your roles can coexist

monti seems like a villager but i'd absolutely hate losing to a wolf making an argument as dumb as his which makes me a bit recitent

[Montmorency]

Maple is saying that the card happens before night so it can't be roleblocked (unless there's a day roleblock but no way that exists). It could work but frankly, I don't want to do that because I do not necessarily think that Maple is lying about their role, I think that Maple is just a wolf. I should probably read back Arctic again from the lens of would he shoot Maple if he got a card (i.e. did he believe the card claim impacted Maple's wolfiness)

There are upsides to stealing a card from Mafia and having Jan both execute Maple and deploy the card. (Mafia might refuse to cooperate, well, whatever - execute. If Maple is town, assume intrinsic motivation to not withholding the card due to facing policy lim.)

My final message for Monday: Do a virtual vote, see how much you can run the tally up on Maple. Is there majority support? If so, I'll "hammer", metaphorically speaking.