Quote Originally Posted by CBR View Post
About the cavalry:

It is speculated that Hannibal did not expect to have Masinissa show up so Hannibal would either have had a small advantage of at least parity and the plan was designed for that.

Could he expect to envelop Scipio without the cavalry advantage as seen in Cannae? I would say so for two reason:

1)He had the advantage in numbers of infantry. Enough to pin down a majority of Scipios army while still having troops to pull off the flanking attack.

2)That it seems his plan was to stay back with a majority of his army and thereby pull the Roman infantry forward so he had room for the outflanking while the cavalry were doing their fight further forward on the wings.

Also I do not think he had to surround Scipio completely. Hitting both flanks would provide a rather devastating result by itself.

Since it is pretty certain that his cavalry was both outnumbered and became disordered by the elephants I do not think a feigned flight is needed to explain the quick "rout" of his cavalry wings. Nor is a feigned flight very likely IMO.

IIRC Polybius states that the elephants covered the whole line. Maybe that was Hannibal improvising when he saw his disadvantage in cavalry.
That's an interesting take on the cavalry situation. Do you mean that Hannibal didn't expect Masinissa to show up for that battle, or that Hannibal didn't realize that Masinissa would be on the Roman side at all? The reason I ask is that Livy makes it pretty clear that Masinissa was operating with the Romans (particularly Laelius) for a fair amount of time leading up to the battle itself. Livy also says that several Carthaginian soldiers were captured by the Romans shortly before the battle (perhaps a day before? it's not particularly clear), shown around the camp, and released. They reported back to Hannibal that Masinissa had joined up with Scipio. (Livy 30.28) However, to be fair, Polybius's timeline is different and suggests the men were released the day before Masinissa showed up. (Polybius 15.5.5-13)

Certainly hitting both flanks with infantry would possibly win the battle, but the reason I think that he needs his cavalry to close the circle (to really work under James's view) is that his theory is that Hannibal attempted a double envelopment to annihilate the Romans. Lapping at the flanks with infantry doesn't really accomplish that, I think. There would be a huge gap in the rear through which much of the Roman center would be able to escape. The long-term result might be the same (i.e. the Romans make it back to camp and eventually surrender), but then again it might not (resupplied by fleet since the Romans have total naval superiority). Even if the Romans are forced to surrender, it wouldn't really have quite the psychological impact that a true, Cannae-style victory would have required the total defeat on the battlefield in a quick manner. I suspect only that (and maybe even that wouldn't do it) would possibly keep the Romans from landing in Africa again.

I think it's not clear from Polybius that he necessarily spread the elephants along the whole line. He says, "Hannibal placed in front of his whole force his elephants, of which he had over 80, and behind them the mercenaries numbering about twelve thousand." (Polybius 15.12.1) Certainly whole force would suggest that they covered the whole line, but behind them the mercenaries I think cuts the other direction. Unfortunately, I think it might be too vague to decide for sure, although I would probably lean, as you suggested, in the direction over the elephants being spaced out across the line. That said, and I know we differ here, but I think it would be very important to have Hannibal's cavalry close the circle for a double envelopment, and if that was the plan, then I think it would have been far more advantageous to group at least a large portion of the elephants on either wing to screen the Roman cavalry, and prevent it from driving off Hannibal's own. I do agree with you about the feigned flight, as previously stated.